William Scott

[Molock]

Is anyone using William Scott's method, particularly his first book, Investing At The Track wherein we pick the best of the public's favorites? I know it's not the most popular method around here, but I'm still interested in pursuing it further, if for nothing more than the intellectual exercise.

[GameTheory]

It doesn't work. Did it ever?


Some of his later stuff, like PCR ratings were a bit more useful. I think his main contribution was getting some other people thinking who expanded on the ideas.

[ranchwest]

I would say that I am somewhat of an adherent to much of Scott's later book, though I do not follow his actual selection process. I found his writings to be a lot of food for thought that led me to some good practices.

Going with the two favorites only is very limiting. Example:

I usually play win/place and make high percentage plays. Today I hit 2 of 4 winners but was still behind on the wins, but I had an 8-1 shot to place, so I finished the day ahead. I believe you need the occasional higher priced horse, otherwise you'd need an extremely high win percentage. I've been hitting a good percentage of my wagers in the $7 to $10 win range and, believe me, those boost the ROI very quickly when you have a high win percentage. But, many of those $7 to $10 horses would probably not be one of the two favorites in many of the races on which I win.

Scott's later book also simplifies some of the extensive rules a little.

[Tom]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by GameTheory
[B]It doesn't work. Did it ever?
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I used it for a couple of years at FL when the book came out.
Hit a lot of winners and made a profit both years. Used it almost exclusively and added in the form factors from the second book.

[modred]

Tom,

Do you still use Scott's methods or have you changed for something better?

I have all of Scott's books plus a tape and a chart on form points he made for one of Lawlor's Handicapping Expos. I've never tried them, but was looking the last book over tonight. It appeared interesting... might give it a try.

[Tom]

I've moved on to HTR and pace handicapping,but I left SCott while still winning. I got into Sartin and was sure I had found the Holy Grail, so I abandoned Scott. Interstingly, Scott spoke at a Sartin seminar and gave us a pretty good method of getting contenders. It was at a hotel in Baltimore, and I will never forget that night......the fire alarms went off (and off and off and off)
The first time, I thought it was a false alarm, so I looked out my 10th floor window and saw the whole hotel out in the street looking up at my window! There, in the center of the crowd, stood Dick Schmidt and Bert Mayne ( I couldn't miss those two in a crowd ~G~) I started out down the stairs and never touched half of them. Talk about your heart pounding!

[Molock]

Tom,

So does that mean you've totally left Sartin behind? Believe it or not, I'm actually interested in finding out what they're up to now. I had the Validator, and while the results were less than impressive, I realize now that I was a newbie and expected too much of a Black Box and wanted to give the latest software a go-around.

But give more details about how you used Scott's methods. With computerized stats and programs, it seems to me that it'd be easier to implement, especially in regards to simulcasting.

[modred]

Tom

I was part of the Sartin group too... I made a couple of New Orleans seminars since I lived near the hotels.

My last Follow up was #83 and unread. I don't know what happened to the group, but i simply got tired of buying programs that I didn't use and couldn't tweak. Plus there was way too much data in the programs for my needs. I dropped out of racing altogether for a while. Now I'm back and want to get back into it but in a much simpler way.

[Molock]

modred

What was the last Sartin program you have? Did you ever use Validator II?

[Dick Schmidt]

Tom,

That was the worst seminar ever, wasn't it. Hot, the hotel was a dive and the AC broke every afternoon. Tom Brohamer and I were rooming together and when the fire alarm went off, we started to stroll down the steps, chatting as we went. Then a couple of firemen in full gear went roaring up the stairs and suddenly Tom and I were very motivated about getting outside. The next 6 times it went off, we ignored it. Some times.

Dick

[modred]

shane

The last program I used was PL4 , grew unhappy with it cuz I couldn't download into it and then I went to Jimmy B's AOdds98 which could and it had a database connected with it. Although the DB was severly limited it functioned. Later I found out Randy Kovach,m the programmer for Aodds98, wasn't a player, his father wasthough, so that explained why he didn't understand some things. Based on Kovach's work with Aodds98 he got a job as a programmer and gave up horse race programming.

[Lefty]

Validator 11 last out by Sartin. Since he's been sick they're about 3 Follow Up's behind and i'm beginning to doubt if he'll ever be back.

[modred]

Lefty

What was your last Follow up?

[alyingthief]

Quinn reports, in the best of thoroughbred handicapping, that the concept of "the doubly advantaged horse" expounded on in Investing at the Racetrack, has an high impact value and a positive roi. i have run across this elsewhere, but i can't recall the source(s). with quinn though, you never see any evidence.

[Lefty]

modred, got 'em all packed away but pretty sure it was #83

[Molock]

I've tried calling them the last couple of days but haven't been able to get ahold of anybody, in fact it just rings and rings. Have they shut their doors. Sad to hear about Howard; last time I saw him he was definitely looking his age.

I have an early version of Validator II but haven't played with it in a long time. Tried loading it up the other day and couldn't remember what the hell key you press to get it to select the best paceline.

[Skersrule]

William Scott's methods definitely work. I have used them and combinations of them for years. Both have their limitations but both work.

If you are going to use the method descibed in the first book you had better stick to higher class tracks i.e. Belmont, Saratoga, Gulf, CDX and so on. Not as much funny stuff goes on at these tracks and the top three choices still finish ITM as often there as when the book was written. I stopped using this method long ago since I'm more of an exacta player and I hate getting beat by a short priced horse even if my overall ROI is positive. You will find that for this method to work you MUST adhere to Scott's rules to the letter. I still use this method if I happen to go to the track without handicapping the night before as it is quick and easy and it works. Anyone who says it doesn't, does not follow the rules or has not used it long term I guarantee it works.The only thing that you will need to do is come up with your own set of track to track changes. California track are still okay with the changes in the book but East Coast tracks have changed. As Calder is more like a -3 for example than a -1 as it was the time the book was written. Also tracks like suffolk are more like +2 or +3 and you can get burnt if you aren't aware of this. If you're gonna start using his first book I recommend that you start off betting $2 to win&place, because you will lose at the beginning. I assure you that it is because you did not follow one of the rules in the book. Go back and look at all the bets you have made and see what you missed after a few times it gets real easy.

As for Scott's third book book IT IS THE SECOND most influential book on my Handicapping and one of only about three of over 100 that I own that is worth a damn. #1 being MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING. PCR is one of the most effective handicapping tools ever invented. Except in Maiden and 3YO races. Trust me, no form of PCR made by a computer will substitute for making PCRs yourself. A computer is not subjective enough to award the proper class points nor do I believe does it throw out Turf races for a dirt race and dirt for turf as Should be done. To make PCR's work you MUST know the class equivilants for your specific track and that posed a huge problem for me on the West Coast where they run all those Optional Claiming Races. You must know what claiming prive is equivalent to a NW1x allowance race. In NY a nw1x allowance is approx = to a $35000 claimer for older horses and a $50+k claimer for 3YO...Nw2x is = to $50k for older and $75k for 3YO. If you don't know this PCRS don't work properly. That being said, if you are not a full time handicapper I don't recommend their use as they are very time consuming to make. Takes me about 60-90 minutes per card and I don't even look at the Maiden Races and I add lightning fast and have made them for 5 years.

As for the form factors they generally work well, except Scott's ideas about layoffs don't seem to work in this day in age. I have adjusted to that and you would have to do the same.

This method is very open ended and whether its works or not is more dependant on the individual handicapper than on the method itself. Therefore I do not use Scott's ability time nor his methods any more when I actually handicap a race. I do however still use PCR which in my opinion is one of the best tools out there for any handicapper. The reason is simple---NOONE uses it. Horses paying odds between 7and 10-1 are routinely found and I have hit as high as 87-1. More importantly many, many favorites can be eliminated.

I have used many programs, including HTR, which HANDS DOWN is the best on the market, but none have performed as well as what I can do using Brohammers Running styles, PCR and a little common sense.

By the way, SARTIN sucks if you are going to use his method's use HTR--way better program for the money and way better people. And jst so noone thinks I'm advertising for someone I no longer use anything other than the good old DRF.

[Vinnie]

Hello Shane,

I am glad to hear that I am not all by myself in trying to get a hold of the Sartin Folks! I have Sartin Synthesis for TrackMaster, and I am having difficulties getting it going with the TrackMaster data Files. It has been awhile since I last used the program and although it loads the TrackMaster (exe.'s) that the folks at TrackMaster insist it uses (it used to use the TrackMaster format B data files) it shows the Entrants and the Race conditions just fine. However, when you try to go in to the Paceline Selection portion of the program it gets all fouled up and I receive a plethora of errors. I have tried to call and email these folks more times than I care to mention. Do you have Synthesis? And if you do, maybe you could help me out here if you don't mind?!

If you don't mind you can email me at either:

mvincen184@earthlink.net
or
mvincent@bop.gov (work)

Thanks a bunch,

Mike

p.s.- Skersrule, are you from Nebraska by chance? I am from Omaha myself. Go Skers! :>)

[Lefty]

Shane, there is no early ver. of Validator 11 there is Validator and Validator 11. If you have Validator 11 pick your pacelines and then press f6 and it points out best one.
If you just have Validator, pick2.3 pacelines and take them to the Superscreen and just delete the 2 inferior obes based on Primary Rank.

[so.cal.fan]

Skersrule:
What do you think of James Quinn's classifications in So. Cal.?
Todaysracingdigest also gives you charts of class groups.

[Skersrule]

Vinnie,

Yes I am from Nebraska---Omaha to be exact. I live about 1/2 mile from Horsemens Park and am there daily.


So. Cal Fan

I have generally stayed away from So Cal racing due to my lack of knowledge of all those Opt Claimers and starter races they have there, but more so because of the short fields. Generally the only big fields are in Turf and Maiden races out there, neither of which are my forte. Would be interested in taking a look at Quinns stuff though.

[so.cal.fan]

Skersrule:
check out www.todaysracingdigest.com
They have free stuff, including RCL charts
These are great classification aids.
They make them for the four seasons of the year to adjust to changes.
I have found them to be pretty accurate, and they probably could help give you ideas how to make similar charts for your favorite circuit.

[Tom]

Originally posted by shanemooney
Tom,

So does that mean you've totally left Sartin behind?

But give more details about how you used Scott's methods. With computerized stats and programs, it seems to me that it'd be easier to implement, especially in regards to simulcasting.

I went as far as Thoromation and K Gen and then stopped buying. I was winning with those two and saw no reason to get the newer programs (which, from the Follow Ups looked a bit bizzare to me). I bought MPH becasue it could handle downloads, and I was doing really good with that one. So I used the three and went happily to the track or You Bet everyday.
I ran across Tomcat Walters over at HTR, and I remembered him from the Sartin seminar days. He suggested the HTR would be worth a look, and that is where I am now.

[Vinnie]

Skersrule,

I had to give you a holler to see if this wasn't the case. I grew up in C.B., IA, across the bridge until High School when we moved to Nebraska (where I was born) in Superior. I played baseball at Papillion and then at Kearney State. Many good friends of mine played at the U. My parents still live in Springfield (outside of Millard and down from Bellevue!) You live in an Awesome place my Man! Whenever I see the College World Series on t.v. each year I get all choked up! :>)

"GO SKERS"!!

[Skersrule]

Its a small World my friend. I too lived in Council Bluffs but was born in Omaha. Moved here when I was 5 tears old though my dad still lives in Council Bluffs. I'm down around Springfield all the time as we camp alot at Louisville which as you probably know is just a little further south on highway 50.

Getting real excited here about the CWS as Nebraska is just one win away from coming back to Omaha. I live on 60th and L about 4 mile from Rosenblatt. Its less than 5 minutes away on I-80.

GO BIG RED

[Vinnie]

Hello Skersrule!

WOW! It is a small world, isn't it?! My mother was born and raised in Louisville and my father retired from teaching High School at Thomas Jefferson High School in C.B.. Many of my good friends I remain in touch with from over there. I lived there from the age of 5 to 16 when we moved back to Nebraska. The Best move we ever made. I work for the U.S. DOJ and I have been literally all over this beautiful country of ours, but, as the saying goes "there is no place quite like Nebraska".

All the BEST! :>)

[Molock]

Thanks Leftty! I've got a beta version of VII that Sartin gave me when I visited him once, but never bought the full upgrade. And at the time they were working on Validator for Windows. Did that ever happen?

[Molock]

Can you use HTR with Scott's Invest At The Racetrack info, as sort of a shortcut? Or do we need to do all of the calculations, research, etc, etc, mentioned in the book for it to work? I had been using a program called Procapps with Scott's method and it seemed to work okay; I was finding out that if you took the top 3 betting favorites you could separate the best one by isolating one particular corrolary, which seemed to vary from track to track. The biggest problem is that it costs, at minimum 2 bucks per card for Procapps, and much of the information found there can be found in HTR if not so easily isolated.

[Skersrule]

Dude,

You can workout all the numbers in Investing at the Track for any given race in about 5 minutes, once you know what you are doing. It's really very very simple. No I never used HTR as a substitute for ability times. HTR in my opinion is better used by players who like to spread their action over alot of tracks. The power of HTR is the ability to query all tracks for any combination of factors you determine to produce overlays.

It worked particularily well for me over the Winter where I used it for two straight weeks at the Horsemens park Daily tournament and won it 5 of 8 times I was in it. Normally I handicap only the NY circuit and I like making my own numbers cause I get a better feel for the race so I couldn't really justify paying for anything other than the form. HTR has since improved the PP's available in their product and I may have to go back to it as it would ultimately be cheaper than the form. The problem with their PP's before was they contained beaten lengths only not running position which made PCRs impossible to calculate and it was difficult to assertain running style----which computers seem to get wrong about 50% of the time.

[Lefty]

"shane" No windows never happened and if anyone trying to use Win ME with Sartin prgms there are probs. Suggest you stick with Win 95 or 98 with any Sartin stuff.

[Vinnie]

Lefty,

I just wanted to thank you for the informative post about the Sartin programs. Hopefully, I will get the darned thing figured out here pretty soon. I wouldn't mind looking at some of the graphs, Entropy, Quad Rater, etc.. (Maybe the files are corrupted?) I don't know? Hopefully, the Doc will recover very quickly and someone will make it back into the officer here soon and I will be able to get this thing squared away.

I appreciate your help!

[Lefty]

Vinnie, what operating system are you running? Win 95, 98, XP?
Seems when you get past win 98 these Dos based Sartin systems are bad news. Issue 83 of the Follow Up confirms.

[Vinnie]

Lefty,

I am running on Windows 98, and when I was living in Massachusetts before moving to FL, and having a subsequent crash of my computer it (Synthesis) was running perfectly on this PC! However, after reloading it this past week, I can't seem to get it up and running properly.

If you happen to have any more suggestions, I would love to hear them.

Thanks!

[Molock]

Well, I guess I'm SOL on the Sartin programs as I'm running Windows XP :eek:

[andicap]

Does anyone here know who William Scott's son is and Scott's real name? For 30 points :)

[modred]

Willimam L . Scott

His real name is Joe Finley who was a big time lawyer in Washington D.C.

his name is a composite of his kids : William, Lucinda and Scott

[modred]

I'm running XP Pro and have no problem running Sartin programs

well PL4 and those prior ..

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Does anyone here know who William Scott's son is and Scott's real name? For 30 points :)

I believe that Bill Finley, NY Daily News fame is his son.

[Lefty]

In the Follow Up 83 Doc said people running Win ME having big probs. This was before XP so not sure about that.
Vinnie, send me a trackmaster exe file and i'll try to dig out my Synthesis and see if I can run it with your file. Send to chuck1760@juno.com I'm going to be ridding myself of netadress soon.

[Vinnie]

Lefty,

Thanks a bunch. I sincerely appreciate your assistance with the Synthesis. I just got home late this evening. I will send a new trackmaster file to the address that you provided early tomorrow evening and maybe when you run it through your Synthesis it may shed some light on the matter.

Thanks again!

[Glenny]

Skersrule,

I too have used some of William L. Scott's ideas in my own handicapping. In fact, his original book (Investing at the Racetrack) was very influential in my getting involved in horseracing in the first place.

In your reply which I found very interesting, you said the following...

"As for the form factors they generally work well, except Scott's ideas about layoffs don't seem to work in this day in age. I have adjusted to that and you would have to do the same."

Would you mind elaborating on what adjustments you have made to Scott's layoff quidelines? I would greatly appreciate it.

Also, I'd love to hear ideas from others as well.

Finally, I'll be in Omaha, NE on business the night of June 26th, 2002 and would love to meet and compare notes at Horseman's park. I always enjoy meeting other serious players...dinner will be on me...LOL