Toteboard Voodoo

[Molock]

I know that this group usually scoffs at toteboard systems, but was wondering if anyone still happened to check out Camptown Races latest offering, Toteboard Voodoo (a title that will no doubt be creatively villified here). It's selling for $50, which is about $40 more than his previous books.

http://www.camptownraces.com/index.html

[ranchwest]

Actually, there seem to be a lot of people here who follow the tote board. I'm not one of them, but there seems to be a lot of acceptance to the concept.

[takeout]

Tote methods must really be a challenge these days. Sometimes more than half the pool doesn't come in until after the race has started.

[GameTheory]

People keep saying that, but it depends on what you are watching for. If you are looking for "inefficiencies", then it is going to be pretty tough. If you are looking for certain final odds or bet downs that need to maintain a certain ratio, then it is going to be pretty tough.

But if you are just looking for a pattern or a trend, it doesn't particularly matter if only 60% of the money is there -- it only matters that MANY people have bet. You are looking for hints that the public as a group generates by their collective behavior. In other words, I think the toteboard is alive and well in terms of predictive patterns (i.e. selecting winners), but is probably no good for uncovering value plays based only on the tote, or patterns that need to remain in some specific state at the point the race goes off.

The problem with all the money coming in at the last second is a problem for EVERY bettor, not just a tote board player.

[ranchwest]

>The problem with all the money coming in at the last second is a problem for EVERY bettor, not just a tote board player.<

Why is that a problem for EVERY bettor?

[superfecta]

the only time I ever really use tote board action is in the exacta pool.It seems to me when the payoffs are out of whack in that pool,you find that where the "smart" money is going now.But it also doesn't work at every track,so some record keeping would be useful at the track(s) you play.Since I don't play exactas,I use that pool to tell me who are the contenders for 1st and 2nd,irregardless of their odds,and I can build a betting grid for tris and supers.But you can't bet mechanically, still takes some decipline, a willingness to pass a race that just doesn't look right.But I'm sure it has potential.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by ranchwest
>The problem with all the money coming in at the last second is a problem for EVERY bettor, not just a tote board player.<

Why is that a problem for EVERY bettor?


Because, theoretically anyway, enough of your bets can be "ruined" by the odds on your selection taking a big enough drop at the last second to put you below the point of profitability.

I don't want to re-hash the debate about good vs. bad bets, but if every 5/1 shot you bet on dropped to 3/5 after the race went off, would you still make money? That won't happen in real life, of course, but having any of "your" money taken away by unpredictable late betting is a problem. It can be overcome, but it is a problem. I guess I should have said "potential problem", my point being that it is not only for tote board players to worry about.

[ernie simons]

I use the tote board almost exclusively to structure my tri's.
No, it doesn't work on every race. It doesn't work on every track.
Actualy, it doesn't work for me at all at AQ & BEL. I think maybe because the favorites get most of the action there. I don't use it at the FLA tracks because of too much tourist money influencing the board.
Mine seems to work best at the smaller tracks, FingerLakes, Delaware, Philly, etc.
I don't use the same guidelines Camptown uses for his reads.
I use a totally different strategy. Something I picked up from one of John Gollehon's books.
Most here would have you believe tote reading is voodoo, and catches nothing more than chalk plays being bet down in the closing minutes.
I maintain it works if you know what you're looking for, and can differentiate between smart money and tourist money.
Hell, I caught a 15-1 ml horse bet down from 12 to 5-1 in one drop at Finger with 10 minutes to post. His odds climbed back up to 14 at post, came in at 17-1. Of course I didn't play him because he didn't fit the criteria for my trifecta play. He placed. I forget what he paid, but it wasn't even close to what he cost me.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by GameTheory



Because, theoretically anyway, enough of your bets can be "ruined" by the odds on your selection taking a big enough drop at the last second to put you below the point of profitability.

I don't want to re-hash the debate about good vs. bad bets, but if every 5/1 shot you bet on dropped to 3/5 after the race went off, would you still make money? That won't happen in real life, of course, but having any of "your" money taken away by unpredictable late betting is a problem. It can be overcome, but it is a problem. I guess I should have said "potential problem", my point being that it is not only for tote board players to worry about.

Racing is parimutuel. For every price that goes down, at least one other goes up. I concentrate on my picks and not whether the odds on my horse are going to go up or down or be drawn into a black hole. I very seldom look at the odds at all. Doesn't seem to hurt.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by shanemooney
I know that this group usually scoffs at toteboard systems, but was wondering if anyone still happened to check out Camptown Races latest offering, Toteboard Voodoo (a title that will no doubt be creatively villified here). It's selling for $50, which is about $40 more than his previous books.

http://www.camptownraces.com/page2.html

Here's the gist of it...

I record the minute to minute changes in the odds from 10 minutes to post to 3 minutes to post.

I can see by the Pattern that the publics wagering created (as a group), whether the betting favorite is a strong win threat, if the favorite will be a good exacta key, and even when the favorite should run third or worse.

After placing the betting favorite, (either win, win place "exacta", or out "3rd or worse"), I use very easy to follow wagering formulas that I created that produce exacta & Trifecta calls.

More importantly though, I've found VERY EASY ways of identifying the races that I should just watch... (NO PLAYS)

The book also contains other wagering strategies... i.e. $3/$2 exacta box, Dutching methods, etc... and a chapter on how to spot play using the odds...

Good Reading for ANY Horse Player...

PA Members can take 10% off of the price.

For the 10% discount, use http://www.paypal.com and send $45 to my email address at chcontest@aol.com.

Please put in the message that you are a PA member ordering Toteboard Voodoo.

Charles

[Dick Schmidt]

Camp,

Though I don't use the toteboard in my own play except to try and guess the final odds before I bet, it occurs to me that the almost completely negative reaction of most players to the idea that it can work given today's late action means that it deserves a closer look. Since everyone allows the tote to influence their selections to one degree or another, we might do well to see if there is more there than the closing price.

Dick

In pari-mutuel wagering, whatever the majority does is, by definition, wrong.

[Foolish Pleasure]

This place is so entertaining,

The AZ guy will never ever win at the track and is too stubborn to ever do anything about it and the tote guys are hilarious, I've bet thousands and cancelled thousands for the sole purpose of manipulation, as long as people bet off the tote, I can manipulate prices. Just hilarious stuff.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by Foolish Pleasure
This place is so entertaining,

The AZ guy will never ever win at the track and is too stubborn to ever do anything about it and the tote guys are hilarious, I've bet thousands and cancelled thousands for the sole purpose of manipulation, as long as people bet off the tote, I can manipulate prices. Just hilarious stuff.

You bring up a good point about betting thousands and canceling the bets for the sole purpose of manipulation. I've seen this many times...

I can't say that I've NEVER been fooled by this, but for the most part it helps me...

I can see where the true balance is even when people like you bounce money around the board.

I just can't wait for the day when you're too late pulling your money and take a nice loss for your game playing.

The most people like you do to me these days is make me go and play at another track.

I look at the complete pattern. I can't hit Every Race, but I do hit enough at a good enough price to keep playing the way I do...

The down side to how I play is that it can get boring...

The up side is that I don't have to read through a bunch of information every day until my eyes bleed.

Play the way that you feel comfortable. Anybody that tells you that they have the "Magic Box" is full of it...

Good Luck,

Play Smart,

Charles

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
Camp,

Though I don't use the toteboard in my own play except to try and guess the final odds before I bet, it occurs to me that the almost completely negative reaction of most players to the idea that it can work given today's late action means that it deserves a closer look. Since everyone allows the tote to influence their selections to one degree or another, we might do well to see if there is more there than the closing price.

Dick

In pari-mutuel wagering, whatever the majority does is, by definition, wrong.

Dick,

I do honestly believe that there is VERY valuable information on the tote.

I was never very good at conventional handicapping and picked the basic odds stuff up through my father and grandfather.

I then, after losing many races, took a long hard look at what I was trying to accomplish.

After about two years of trying to use different angles, (Most bet down, biggest single minute drop in odds, etc..), I was still losing more than winning.

I started to really take a look at the betting favorite after that. I could see when the public, (as a group) were being sucked in by a phony favorite. I've been able to identify the strong contenders when I see this happen. This is where I do believe the tote has value.

I can see, (not in every race), if the betting favorite is a strong win threat, when it may run second (exacta), and when it should run third or worse. I developed easy to use wagering formulas that easily identify who to play with the betting fav, and even better, who to play instead of the betting fav when it looks like it will fail.

Again, I can't hit every race... I run across a lot of NO PLAYS.

If I just don't know, I just don't play... I'm not always right, (obviously), but I catch a lot of nice races every day that I play.

Dick, email me chcontest@aol.com your mailing address and I'll send you a copy for FREE...

I'd really like to get your honest opinion as to the value of the information that I have available.

Charles

[Dick Schmidt]

Camper,

Thank you. I'll look forwards to reading it. I can't promise a good review, but I can promise a long look, a fair trial and an honest opinion. Not many racing authors would like that! Glad to see you have confidence in your work.

Dick

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
Camper,

I can't promise a good review, but I can promise a long look, a fair trial and an honest opinion.

Dick

I can't ask for anything more than that...

Charles

[Molock]

Camp

How does Toteboard Voodoo differ from your other books which I've had opportunity to gander (I had a friend who made a short stab at some of your ideas, though he had a problem seeing the "patterns")?

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by shanemooney
Camp

How does Toteboard Voodoo differ from your other books which I've had opportunity to gander (I had a friend who made a short stab at some of your ideas, though he had a problem seeing the "patterns")?

This book covers much more than all of my other books did.

Much more of how not to get fooled, and how to get the best bang for your buck would be the biggest difference.

I go through the 10 Wagering Formulas that I use, and include much more as far as "Who" and "Why".

My other books were written out in steps. (One book leading you to the next)

This book is all inclusive... I cover much more in Toteboard Voodoo...

Charles