PDA

View Full Version : turf racing and quinn's turf speed figure


alyingthief
06-05-2002, 01:04 PM
has anyone had any success, or experience, using quinn's turf speed figures (discussed in Figure Handicapping)? what are your approaches to turf racing?

so.cal.fan
06-05-2002, 01:33 PM
I haven't read the book, thief, but I have NEVER had any luck on turf races using any kind of figures.
Classify them.

Figures lie and liars use figures..............at least on turf. LOL

delayjf
06-05-2002, 02:58 PM
Thief,
From a few of your previous posts, I know you are an old Sartin guy, me too. The only Sartin program I used was the Synergetic Match up II. With that, I fell in love with the Sustained pace rating on the Turf. It worked great in So Cal. However; I'm not sure I would trust the program to compare horses from different tracks as the adjustments it made to the horses times did not adjust for different tracks, perhaps you can shed some light on how Doc adjusted the times???
In So Cal, with the lack of bad WX and the low amount of shippers, I think you can get away a not so accurate varient, not so on the East Coast.
What I liked about Sustained pace was that it incorporated the entire race, not just the last fraction. Horses don't run the final fraction in a Vaccuum.
I have had some success using the final fraction alone, but I don't think it is as accurate as Sustained pace.
I've read Pizzola's book, and his treatment of lengths gained into the final fraction (he ignores it) does not make sense to me.
Interesting threads on the issue on Varients under the Lifton post. I've also grappled with the ideal varient myself. If interested, email me at the below address for further discussion, I'd love to hear more about your energy distribution research.
delayjf2002@yahoo.com

Tom
06-05-2002, 08:36 PM
theif....
I make the Beyer-style figures for turf routes, third fractions.
I use 24,, 30, and 36 seconds as base ratings of 100. I then make a figure chart for each of these distances. I use Formulator, and use the view where you get the horse's fractional times.
I simply assing the fig to each 3F I am interested in using.
I try to use races within 1/2 furlong if possible, or wiothing 1 furlong if neccessary. I will pass up a 9 furlong race to go back to a mile race if today's race is a mile. I look at the horse's last 6 turf starts and am very forgiving-I use races a while ago if I think the horse is well meant today. I throw out the bottom class rung horses if they move up in class. I am not too concerned with final time speed fogs, butI do look at them and let them subtly influence me. I never make paceline adjustments to turflike I do on dirt. Always use raw fractions. I pay attention to turf records and don't like horses who don't win on turf. I will try to attach my 3F ratings chart - if it doesn't work, email me and I will send it to you. I do very good using this turf method.

Tom

Tom
06-05-2002, 08:39 PM
Last try to attach file.

Turf Final Fraction Speed Chart

2 furlongs 2-1/2 furlongs 3 furlongs 3-1/2 furlongs
22 116 28 120 34 124 40 128
1 114 1 118 1 122 1 125
2 113 2 116 2 119 2 122
3 111 3 114 3 117 3 120
4 110 4 112 4 114 4 117
23 108 29 110 35 112 41 114
1 106 1 108 1 110 1 111
2 105 2 106 2 107 2 108
3 103 3 104 3 105 3 106
4 102 4 102 4 102 4 103
24 100 30 100 36 100 42 100
1 98 1 98 1 98 1 97
2 97 2 96 2 95 2 94
3 95 3 94 3 93 3 92
4 94 4 92 4 90 4 89
25 92 31 90 37 88 43 86
1 90 1 88 1 86 1 83
2 89 2 86 2 83 2 80
3 87 3 84 3 81 3 78
4 86 4 82 4 78 4 75
26 84 32 80 38 76 44 72
1 82 1 78 1 74 1 69
2 81 2 76 2 71 2 66
3 79 3 74 3 69 3 64
4 78 4 72 4 66 4 61
27 76 33 70 39 64 45 58
1 74 1 68 1 62 1 55
2 73 2 66 2 59 2 52
3 71 3 64 3 57 3 50
4 70 4 62 4 54 4 47

cj
06-05-2002, 09:31 PM
Originally posted by Tom

I try to use races within 1/2 furlong if possible, or within 1 furlong if neccessary. Tom

Good point Tom, this is a nice way to hit good priced horses on dirt as well IMO.

CJ

justin
06-06-2002, 07:20 AM
I've done quite well using his exact methods in the past, until I lost the book that is. It really doesn't matter, as the times listed in the back would've been outdated by now anyway.

One spot I've noticed they do quite well in is at picking future stakes winners. By the same token, I've done just as well using raw fractions and having a general idea of the speed of each track just through the course of playing lots of sod races. If you see a horse who can close an 8.5F in 28 and anything, they're going to win a stakes. Same for a horse who can do anything around low 35s or less for a 9F race. Golden Apples, Starrine, and England's Legend spring to mind. These horses didn't pay huge in their breakthrough wins, but they towered over the opposition to the point that even with odds in the 5-2 to 5-1 range they were quite enticing.

The one thing I can advise to be cautious of are horses who have impressive splits at a distance different than todays. Horses stretching out in distance usually make terrible bets even with good numbers at a shorter distance unless they have demonstrated the ability to run equally as impressive at today's distance. If the horse is long odds, that's one thing, but I've seen too many short-priced horses tank to bet this type. MANY times they run completely off the board. I hate horses going from longer distances to a mile if they are devoid of any early foot at all. They just don't get there in time.

Another thing to be wary of are horses who run the last part of the race fast over and over but never get there...look good on paper, but almost always sucker bets. My brother's program does turf figures, but I haven't had enough of an opportunity to bet turf races this year to know whether I'd be better off with his figures or just doing what I've been doing in the past. Sorry to ramble...but I live for turf racing! Many of you reading this are probably much more experienced than I, but I just figured I'd share what I've seen so far.

-Justin

justin
06-06-2002, 07:24 AM
Sorry Tom, I guess I could've cut my post in half since I agree with every single thing you said! How do you do in races with a lot of shippers? I've found those can be some of the hardest ones to 'cap as some tracks are so much faster than others. Belmont turf springs to mind...is that grass or artificial turf?

-Justin

John
06-06-2002, 11:28 AM
I remember reading " if turf horse won his last race and is dropping in class,avoid him like the plague. Winners don't go down, they go up.

cj
06-06-2002, 06:59 PM
That applies to dirt racing too, IMO.

CJ

alyingthief
06-07-2002, 03:47 AM
tom:

to echo what justin said, what do you do for track to track adj.? this is the major obstacle to precise turf figures: you can't really generate a variant, but you need to generate a variant...the grass is deep, the grass is short, the dogs are up, the dogs are down.

so.cal.fan
06-07-2002, 12:33 PM
Thief,
You're right about the turf variants, very difficult to gauge.
We have rails up at 15' and 30' it makes a big difference in the ground horses LOSE, going WIDE.
I think jockeys determine how these races are run, often.
They can fool you, if you are tying to determine a variant.
Your method of grass deep, grass short, rails up, rails down is about as close as you can get.
I would add, good turf rider up or not.

Tom
06-07-2002, 08:09 PM
I use raw times for turf races. No track to track or anything else.
I am not afraid to go back last year to get a race to use if more recent ones are at wrong distances or yeilding grass, or whatever. I use the Beyers to get a handle who is overall godd enough to win, but for final selections, it is raw third fractions.
I look at HTR velocity rating and favor late pace and sustained pace since I have the file there to look at anyway, but I pretty much play the better raw closers of the chart I posted.
Gets good prices.
I used to spend hours making adjustments and did not do as good. The key to playing turf is to throw out horse that can't win today. Idon't look at turf at all like I look at dirt races.
Maybe we could get a few people in the War Room over the weekend and do some turf races together....

GR1@HTR
06-07-2002, 10:07 PM
Yeah, someone needs to show me how to pick a turf winner.