Seven Reasons - 2nd lifetime start

[nobeyerspls]

This is the 6th of seven reasons to bet a racehorse. I learned it as an owner and it has paid well enough to reimburse me for funds lost investing in thoroughbreds.

Second Lifetime Start
The returns here are best when the horse has a lousy first race but has shown talent in the morning (pass on a horse who doesn't show good works). I don't use it when a horse hits the board in his first race because the odds then are below my threshold. No matter how hard you try to simulate a race in training, something can and will go wrong during the first race. I had a 2yo filly training like gangbusters but the time for the works did not stand out. We put her against a 2yo colt in the morning who had run 2nd at the msw level and he couldn't get past her. She was 35-1 at Laurel breaking from the #4 post. Just before the start, one of the gate guys was fiddling with a chain. She heard it and turned to look just as the gate opened and was left behind. Rushed up to catch the field and ended up 5th.

When this angle is combined with a change of equipment or favorable surface change it is dynamite. Look for 20-1 or better and bet with both hands. One of these ran 2nd for me in a head-bob at 55-1. I would have had the entire win 4 pool if the photo came out in my favor.

"May you dance with the Seven Sweet Sisters of Success, may they warmly embrace you, may all knowledge be thine in the fullness of time."

[OTM Al]

This is always a good angle. I would also add to it looking if the horse was posted along the rail in that first start. That usually bothers them very much and makes that first trip look even worse than it should have been.

[Valuist]

Nobeyers-

Do you take the horse's betting action from its first race into account?

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=nobeyerspls]This is the 6th of seven reasons to bet a racehorse. I learned it as an owner and it has paid well enough to reimburse me for funds lost investing in thoroughbreds.

Second Lifetime Start
The returns here are best when the horse has a lousy first race but has shown talent in the morning (pass on a horse who doesn't show good works). I don't use it when a horse hits the board in his first race because the odds then are below my threshold. No matter how hard you try to simulate a race in training, something can and will go wrong during the first race. I had a 2yo filly training like gangbusters but the time for the works did not stand out. We put her against a 2yo colt in the morning who had run 2nd at the msw level and he couldn't get past her. She was 35-1 at Laurel breaking from the #4 post. Just before the start, one of the gate guys was fiddling with a chain. She heard it and turned to look just as the gate opened and was left behind. Rushed up to catch the field and ended up 5th.

When this angle is combined with a change of equipment or favorable surface change it is dynamite. Look for 20-1 or better and bet with both hands. One of these ran 2nd for me in a head-bob at 55-1. I would have had the entire win 4 pool if the photo came out in my favor.

nobeyerspls; Can't dispute what your saying here at all because when your forced somewhat to play the babies in the picks there's not much to look at, so an angle of this nature gives you something to hang your hat on. Still in all it's a crap shoot when it comes to first and second time starters. I wouldn't advise anyone to bet with both hands on so many unknown factors though.

To me the risk is to high compared to betting on older horses. I have yet to meet or see anyone making a habit of betting workouts under those conditions sustain themselves over time. If there's anyone here that can do it, speak up because you'll save me a lot money in the pick 6 and 4's because I tend to go deep if confronted with a race like that. When there's to many, I'll just pass on the 6 and wait for another day.

Good luck,

T.D.

[nobeyerspls]

OTM Al

Good point and I should have included it. Unless the horse has controlling speed, the rail can be the kiss of death. Even then the horse has to break well.

[the little guy]

This is the 6th of seven reasons to bet a racehorse. I learned it as an owner and it has paid well enough to reimburse me for funds lost investing in thoroughbreds.

Second Lifetime Start
The returns here are best when the horse has a lousy first race but has shown talent in the morning (pass on a horse who doesn't show good works). I don't use it when a horse hits the board in his first race because the odds then are below my threshold. No matter how hard you try to simulate a race in training, something can and will go wrong during the first race. I had a 2yo filly training like gangbusters but the time for the works did not stand out. We put her against a 2yo colt in the morning who had run 2nd at the msw level and he couldn't get past her. She was 35-1 at Laurel breaking from the #4 post. Just before the start, one of the gate guys was fiddling with a chain. She heard it and turned to look just as the gate opened and was left behind. Rushed up to catch the field and ended up 5th.

When this angle is combined with a change of equipment or favorable surface change it is dynamite. Look for 20-1 or better and bet with both hands. One of these ran 2nd for me in a head-bob at 55-1. I would have had the entire win 4 pool if the photo came out in my favor.

"May you dance with the Seven Sweet Sisters of Success, may they warmly embrace you, may all knowledge be thine in the fullness of time."What does " shown talent in the morning " mean? Works are completely subjective, and unless you are either watching workouts, and well trained to observe them, or getting extremely reliable information from someone who is, then the workouts printed in the paper are virtually useless, especially these days. Many " fast " workouts are actually unimpressive to someone knowledgable observing and vice versa.

You are MASSIVELY oversimplifying an obvious situation here. Maybe I'm the only one who finds humor in your ridiculing of speed figures while saying " Psst, hey here's a secret, if you want to make money at the racetrack, bet second time starters that ran poorly in their debuts, but have fast workouts and a blinker change. And, it's really great when they hit the slop in their debut and the track is fast today ".

And, I don't ridicule people for what they bet, and people should bet what they are comfortable with or can afford. But, I do find something odd about someone who just posted that he bets $6 to win and $3 to place turning around and telling people to " bet with both hands ".

[nobeyerspls]

Valulist

I don't take betting action into account but most do. High profile barns seldom bet their horses. I didn't bet mine for two reasons. First, I had a big "bet" in as an owner and second, I knew nothing at all about the other entrants. I did however bet the filly in my example.

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya littleguy

Shows talent in the morning isn't just fast works, it's workout patterns. If you know the track and are familiar with the trainers you'll be able to identify talent.

You can verify this angle in real-time going forward or just scan past performances for some who have won at decent odds. My best return was from one that ran 6th in a troubled trip first time out and was then entered in and won a stakes race for two year olds. The thing is it was the third leg of a pick four which I played 1x1x1x6. The last race had 11 horses. I saved $5 by not using the all button and thus missed a $6,300 ticket (see earlier post re good handicapping/lousy money management).

The bet with both hands suggestion related to exotics and not a straight bet. This means using the horse in multiple pick threes and exactas/trifectas. For me it would mean spending $40 instead of $20, i.e. 20 with the left hand and 20 with the right (remember that I'm getting an extra $20 for not being a camp counsellor).

My position on beyer speed figures is that they are not predictive. Did not mean to ridicule anyone. Their creation was a noble attempt to digitize performance and apparently the attempt is ongoing through an individual adjusting process. I have no opinion on pace figures as I am just learning about them. I am hoping that they improve my handicapping by allowing me to evaluate races that I normally skip.

[toetoe]

tlg,

Agree that fast workouts only serve to depress odds. Second-timers are a huge angle, always deserve at least a glance, as they are not proven rats. A workout service can assess the workouts, giving a better idea, but I just want steady works, and I NEVER add points for a bullet at a bush track. BM and GG are okay, but anything at Fairplex, San Luis Rey Downs, etc., I note for the activity, only.

If the trainer has a high %age with second-timers, all the better. Two from last week were Kevin Lewis and Clifford Sise, at Fairplex. Anyway, I'm making it more complex than it is.

[the little guy]

It's really all subjective handicapping. There are no " rules " ( at least to me ) and every horse needs to be analyzed objectively. For instance, horses often run their best races third off a layoff. However, that doesn't mean you bet any horse who is third off a layoff. It merely means you may want to give a second look to a horse in that situation and see if he/she has prior form that could put him there.

Any serious handicapper always pays attention to a second time starter. They would likely analyze how he was bet in his debut ( relative to the " strength " of its trainer ) and they would certainly make sure to watch the replay of its debut to see if it either encountered trouble ( especially at the gate ) or flashed even a sign of talent, despite perhaps not finishing well.

I consider this board to have many serious and enlightened horseplayers, and I'm just kind of wondering why there is a " basics of handicapping " lecture going on.

[twindouble]

It's really all subjective handicapping. There are no " rules " ( at least to me ) and every horse needs to be analyzed objectively. For instance, horses often run their best races third off a layoff. However, that doesn't mean you bet any horse who is third off a layoff. It merely means you may want to give a second look to a horse in that situation and see if he/she has prior form that could put him there.

Any serious handicapper always pays attention to a second time starter. They would likely analyze how he was bet in his debut ( relative to the " strength " of its trainer ) and they would certainly make sure to watch the replay of its debut to see if it either encountered trouble ( especially at the gate ) or flashed even a sign of talent, despite perhaps not finishing well.

I consider this board to have many serious and enlightened horseplayers, and I'm just kind of wondering why there is a " basics of handicapping " lecture going on.

I was under the empression that's what the forum is all about, it's "basically" for new people learning the game plus those that need to improve their game for one reason or another. Forming a club of intillectuals and experienced handicappers misses the mark in my opinion. Just my opinion.

Good luck,

T.D

[Tee]

I was under the empression that's what the forum is all about, it's "basically" for new people learning the game plus those that need to improve their game for one reason or another. Forming a club of intillectuals and experienced handicappers misses the mark in my opinion. Just my opinion.

Good luck,

T.D

The above is a potential can of worms.

JMHO

[ryesteve]

My position on beyer speed figures is that they are not predictive.
I could understand your argument if you were to say that horses with high figs are overbet, so it's hard to make money with them, but to say they're "not predictive" is a much tougher sell. Surely you're not implying that horses with the best figures win at the same rate as horses with the worst figs...

[twindouble]

The above is a potential can of worms.

JMHO


So be it!

T.D.

[v_d_g]

Hard to believe that so many on this forum are clueless.

Yeah, what I really want to do is bet patterns
that way
I'm sure to never have an opinion. Really, why would I want to actually learn something about the game (and the horses).

Tell you this much: If I were clueless, I'd keep my mouth shut.

I have a pattern for you nobeyerspls: next time you're at the track and your ball itch, bet the chalk. Works every time.

[the little guy]

[/b]

I was under the empression that's what the forum is all about, it's "basically" for new people learning the game plus those that need to improve their game for one reason or another. Forming a club of intillectuals and experienced handicappers misses the mark in my opinion. Just my opinion.

Good luck,

T.DSo let me get this straight, you and NoBeyers came here to spread your years of wisdom to, yet another, bunch of newbies?

[DrugSalvastore]

I've always believed that each horse is it's own entity.

It's not always a great idea to just assume a horse will improve markedly in his 2nd start after a disappointing debut run, and it's not always a great idea to just assume a horse will decline markedly in his 2nd start after a very strong debut effort.

It's not a great idea to just assume a horse will run a solid race in his 3rd start off the layoff--some will, some won't. A horse like Bellamy Road, who ran out of his mind in his debut at Delaware, came back off of workouts to gallop off-the-screen in an impressive Gulfstream ALW win, and came back off of workouts to run a nifty 2nd in the ten furlong Gr. 1 Travers---he is the kind of horse who comes out firing, and by the time you get to the 3rd start, he might be flat or hurt.

The "sheet" companies absolutely love the "first time 4-year-old off a layoff" angle. They claim that a horse is more likely to get a lifetime top in that situation, than any other situation where they have established form.

I've paid close attention to that---it does seem that a surprisingly high number of horses will run a little better than expected in that situation, but it's hardly a good reason to bet a horse just because he fits some oddball pattern like that.

A lot of times, trainers will find softer spots to bring horses who fit that profile back. I'll use Strong Hope as an example. He was "first time 4yo off a layoff" in an ALW race at Gulfstream Park. He ran a monster race visually, got a big lifetime top on figures, but I just think he was sharp, found a very soft field, got a nice trip, and put on a show. I'm not so sure he would have looked the same against much steeper opposition.

The 4yo Commentator would be another example. He made his first start off a nearly six month layoff in a softish 50K ALW race at BEL. He won nicely by 16.5 lengths and ran seven furlongs in 1:20.23 while going very fluently and easy. His beyer was a 121 (I projected it to be a 127--and I'm almost never off that much) but like with Strong Hope---the trip, and opposition played a big part of the monster effort.

The horse who was 2nd beaten 16.5 lengths to Commentator returned to win with a 103 beyer off of three days rest. The other 7 furlong race on the card was won by Northwest Hill--he won by 5 lengths in 1:23.50 with an 81. He scored a victory next time out, and raised his beyer 9 points to a 90. I think it's fair to say that the 121 Commentator got, was a bit on the conservative side.

[Valuist]

I thought the Sheets angle was when a horse makes its 4YO debut following a layoff, and posts a new top, its a good bet to pair up that number, rather than reacting to the effort. So its really a second off the layoff (providing the new top has been established) angle.

[the little guy]

Please don't interupt this thread with sound handicapping advice.

Try and focus on helping the newbies.

[DrugSalvastore]

I thought the Sheets angle was when a horse makes its 4YO debut following a layoff, and posts a new top, its a good bet to pair up that number, rather than reacting to the effort. So its really a second off the layoff (providing the new top has been established) angle.

I'm not a "sheet player." But I do bother to read and listen to what I can from Brown, Ragozin, Freedman, and other sheet types.

When a horse runs a top off a layoff---it means (to sheet players) that the horse is healthy--it's a good sign, and a "pair-up" is likely.

The "first time 4yo off a layoff" is the best angle for producing a top. That's how I understand it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hard to believe that so many on this forum are clueless.

Yeah, what I really want to do is bet patterns
that way
I'm sure to never have an opinion. Really, why would I want to actually learn something about the game (and the horses).

Tell you this much: If I were clueless, I'd keep my mouth shut.

I have a pattern for you nobeyerspls: next time you're at the track and your ball itch, bet the chalk. Works every time.

Well then, I'll make it easier for you to stop wasting your time with clueless folk.....

v_d_g has just been issued the first ever PaceAdvantage.Com 5 day suspension....

carry on....

[Bruddah]

Each should be allowed their views and opinions without being insulted, because it's not a popular viewpoint.

[DrugSalvastore]

v_d_g has just been issued the first ever PaceAdvantage.Com 5 day suspension....

Maybe you should wait 15 months before suspending this poster. He's up for his first eclipse award--and we wouldn't want to taint his great accomplishments from earlier in the year! Oh----I kid Todd Pletcher and his mepivicaine suspension!

I think the comment VDG made was a result of Winstrol injections. People, 'Roid rage is never good.

V_D_G---lay off the juice--it's bad for your liver and kidneys. The acme and hair loss will offset all the muscle mass gains you make....you don't need cartoon bicepts to impress the ho's...I think the Ron Jermey penis pump is all it takes for that. It's a real bargin buy at $18.99!

[Light]

After reading this thread,think I could use 5 days off.

[nobeyerspls]

Ryesteve

You have to understand my handicapping challenge. I want to find live longshots that help me leverage my capital so that I can bet a little to win a lot. I agree that winners often come from the top quartile of figures but when that happens I'm usually a spectator. Someone on here posted the results of a large database showing winners improve their beyers by eight points or more. The improvement isn't something that the prior figures predict, it happens for another reason. When it does happen the horse gets a higher beyer. I want to find the reason for the improvement before the race.

[the little guy]

Ryesteve

You have to understand my handicapping challenge. I want to find live longshots that help me leverage my capital so that I can bet a little to win a lot.And you think the rest of us are looking for what....short priced horses where we have to bet a lot with the hopes of making a modest return on a huge investment?

[nobeyerspls]

VDG

Sorry that you got banned for that. I don't just bet patterns but I do look for angles that produce longshots and have been somewhat successful at it. I have forty-nine years of experience as a fan, owner, and breeder. Even so I still realize that I can learn something from others.

Actually (and this is for you to littleguy), I thought my post about uncontested speed was much more "handicapping 101" than this. Listening to others and learning from them has helped me in more than just horseracing.

When you come back please join in when pace handicappers show me how to use their figures to find a winner

[nobeyerspls]

Littleguy

I never said that. I do see on a daily basis that large bets are made on short-priced horses. That's why they are short-priced. Everyone is intitled to their own betting style and I have mine.

I seem to be a lightening rod for you. If I posted that the sun might come up tomorrow would you disagree? Also, see my response to vdg. I started a thread on Uncontested Speed which is clearly right out of handicapping 101 and nobody complained. Do you have a list of acceptable topics for us to follow?

[the little guy]

Well, my real problem is that, at least to me, you are being condescending, speaking to the posters here as though they need a lesson in Handicapping 101, when, in my opinion, the average poster here is in the handicapping doctorate program, at the very least. If that is not the case, you would do well to disassociate yourself from Twindouble's earlier comments in this thread where he not only supported my feelings, but stood by them defiantly ( " so be it! " ).

Perhaps I am out of line, and if others here feel that way they should feel free to call me out, and if so I apologize.

[twindouble]

Well, my real problem is that, at least to me, you are being condescending, speaking to the posters here as though they need a lesson in Handicapping 101, when, in my opinion, the average poster here is in the handicapping doctorate program, at the very least. If that is not the case, you would do well to disassociate yourself from Twindouble's earlier comments in this thread where he not only supported my feelings, but stood by them defiantly ( " so be it! " ).

Perhaps I am out of line, and if others here feel that way they should feel free to call me out, and if so I apologize.


Shoot, you disappointed me, I was just poking you to get a responce. Needed a little attention. :lol: Next time I expect nothing but your best left hook or a straight shot down the middle. I can't imagine you getting boring, toning it down a some is OK but please don't put on an intirely different hat. :faint:

[DrugSalvastore]

Shoot, you disappointed me, I was just poking you to get a responce. Needed a little attention. :lol: Next time I expect nothing but your best left hook or a straight shot down the middle. I can't imagine you getting boring, toning it down a some is OK but please don't put on an intirely different hat. :faint:

I'm lost!!!

What is this retarded drivel all about???

[twindouble]

I'm lost!!!

What is this retarded drivel all about???

The post wasn't meant for you, read it again, it's directed to TLG. Retarded???

[GameTheory]

Well, my real problem is that, at least to me, you are being condescending, speaking to the posters here as though they need a lesson in Handicapping 101, when, in my opinion, the average poster here is in the handicapping doctorate program, at the very least. If that is not the case, you would do well to disassociate yourself from Twindouble's earlier comments in this thread where he not only supported my feelings, but stood by them defiantly ( " so be it! " ).

Perhaps I am out of line, and if others here feel that way they should feel free to call me out, and if so I apologize.I don't see that at all. When he started this "series" he stated that he looks for horses the crowd overlooks and he's got 7 things he's looking for. If he can find a horse with 1 of the 7 qualifications, he makes a bet. So he's been making threads -- one for each reason and talking about them. How anyone could have a problem with that is beyond me. Why anyone would want to discourage anyone from participating that was not a holder of a PhD of handicapping is also beyond me.

You think the PA policy should be, "New to the game? You're not welcome here -- go take your handicapping lumps for 10 years then come back!"

[the little guy]

Fair enough, and your last point is well taken, but what got under my skin was his approach and challenge to people who made pace figures, which ended with " three horses across the track vying for the lead is an example of a hotly contested pace ". Hardly a position that feels defendable against people who make a serious study of pace.

[nobeyerspls]

Littleguy

Fastracehorse asked me how I could tell a contested pace. What else could I answer? I wasn't trying to be condescending. Shouldn't I be somewhat embarrased that it took me 49 years to find seven reasons to bet a racehorse. Do the math without taking your shoes and socks off to count on your toes. Isn't that one every seven years? What could be more pathetic.

Now, let's say there's a relatively new handicapper (four years) and he reads my posts, even those that are beneath you. Do I get some credit for saving him forty-five years.

As to pace handicapping using pace figures, I have said that I know nothing about it. I don't know a Quirin figure from a bag of apples. I haven't challenged anyone to use them, just to demonstrate how they are used to identify a winner. I took the time once (and a great deal of work) to handicap myself. I stink at open claiming sprinters unless one of my angles is involved which isn't that often. I find myself passing on pick3's because of this weakness. If pace handicapping helps with that category I might make some money with it. If that happens it will be worth the abuse I seem to have brought upon myself.

[DrugSalvastore]

I don't see that at all. When he started this "series" he stated that he looks for horses the crowd overlooks and he's got 7 things he's looking for. If he can find a horse with 1 of the 7 qualifications, he makes a bet. So he's been making threads -- one for each reason and talking about them. How anyone could have a problem with that is beyond me. Why anyone would want to discourage anyone from participating that was not a holder of a PhD of handicapping is also beyond me.

A PhD of handicapping!---as they say in the hood---a PhD ain't nothin but a player hater degree.

I never even bothered to get myself a GED.

Seriously though, this is another post addressed to TLG, but here are my thoughts...

I found nothing wrong with Mr. No Beyer and his 7 qualifications posts. I didn't agree with everything he was saying in them---but it's a worthwhile discussion. I think TLG can use a nice hug and bong hit every now and again---but I don't think he's out of line. I have no clue what Twin Double is posting about...but I guess I'm not supposed to since it wasn't addressed to me.

[the little guy]

Littleguy



Now, let's say there's a relatively new handicapper (four years) and he reads my posts, even those that are beneath you. Do I get some credit for saving him forty-five years.

Maybe it's just me, but I feel as though this is sort of the crux of my feelings, as who are you to suggest that just because you seem to believe that these theories are a road to success, a road that's worth pointing out has led you to two consecutive losing years, that they are in fact just that. Once again, maybe it's just me, but your suggestion that some reasonable newbie will save himself forty-five years by following YOUR rules is...well to be frank....arrogant.

[dutzman]

I have had lots of succes with this angle. One horse sticks out. Everyone know Zitos horse Pinpoint? First race - beaten 22 3/4 lengths. Second race he shows up in blinkers and his last workout he drilled in 59 and change. Common sense tells you he had the hood on for that work. Look up at the tote and what do I see?? 24-1 :eek: WOW!! Plus, Zito is a monster second time out especially when stretching out. I was also rewarded with 14-1 when he won a NX1 at Keeneland third time out. For some reason, baby races are my favorite to play and angles like this one do pay off juicy prices.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think we're wasting time in this thread going around in circles with personal garbage, when in fact, we could be talking about more meaningful, handicapping-type stuff.....capisci?

[twindouble]

I think we're wasting time in this thread going around in circles with personal garbage, when in fact, we could be talking about more meaningful, handicapping-type stuff.....capisci?

PA; Just for future reference please clarify what you concider to be personal garbage within a thread of this nature? For example can we pull someones leg, jab and joke around with a person we get to know over time? Not with standing the fact the parties haven't personally met in the real world plus our perceptions of each other can vary from time to time because of the limits this form of communication put on us.

With hindsight I think my comments to TLG would have been better served via personal message, not in this thread. In the future that's what I'll do, not that I think I'm on his priority list for responce. :D

Maybe I just answered my own question.

Thanks,

T.D.

[nobeyerspls]

First of all I haven't had two consecutive losing years. I've been keeping good records for sixteen years and the two negative ones (quite small) were among those. Before that my track money was kept in an old suit pocket in the closet and was used for vacations. One year we went to the Canadian rockies. The next year we had enough for busfare to the local zoo. The truth is that it's not about the money, it's the challenge of solving the puzzle that counts.

If this forum is not about sharing ideas then I don't belong here. The reasons I mention can be verified in real-time or by looking at historical records.

I'm going to post the last of the seven now and then leave this site on Sunday. I want to stick around for the Saturday thread that teaches me something about pace handicapping. Perhaps you can be among the teachers. I promise not to call you arrogant.

[andicap]

Please don't interupt this thread with sound handicapping advice.

Try and focus on helping the newbies.

Andy
I've got to respectfully disagree with you here. This forum is not just for experts like yourself or intermediate players like me hoping to get to your level. It is for all stripes and sizes, including those who are new to the game and want to learn something.
There are many controversial ways of handicapping and certainly nobeyers has touted some of those -- a few I agree with, a few I don't, a few I agree with you are kind of subjective and might just confuse people.

But the beauty of an open forum like this is that people like yourself can rebut nobyer's handicapping principles and others can make up their own minds.

The only time my nose gets bent out of shape is when it gets personal and name-calling begins. No one's style of handicapping is THE BEST -- people win with Beyers, pace, trainers, hell there's probably someone out there winning through astrology.

Nobeyer,
on another thread you said this place discourages the open exchange of ideas and I'm scratching my head over that one. If you want to take the replies of a couple of people and extrapolate that to include the entire PA community, well as CJ said, go on and play the martyr, who cares?

I think on the whole your 7 winning reasons have been well received and have begun a good exchange of views. I disagree with much of what's said and I agree with others and pipe in whenver I care to, but I've been here more than five years and have never felt my ideas were unwelcome -- and I've been insulted more than a few times, even by Keilan!

I think your pace posts have been misunderstood -- i believe you genuinely want to learn how pace players here make their choices. The problem is no two or three people handicap alike, even among pace players. There are unifying principles -- lots of speed will TEND to open a race to a closer, but no absolutes (e.g., when does the "speed of the speed" hold on? sometimes we're right -- sometimes we're wrong. You seem to be looking for some absolutes here but we all play differently. )

[the little guy]

I just want to make one thing clear, I never suggested, or would suggest, that this forum isn't for anybody who is interested in racing...newbies and pros alike. What I was objecting to was talking down to serious minded posters, especially about something that they have spent a lot more time and energy thinking about than you....in other words being unfairly condescending.

[andicap]

I'm not a "sheet player." But I do bother to read and listen to what I can from Brown, Ragozin, Freedman, and other sheet types.

When a horse runs a top off a layoff---it means (to sheet players) that the horse is healthy--it's a good sign, and a "pair-up" is likely.

The "first time 4yo off a layoff" is the best angle for producing a top. That's how I understand it.

It's much more complicated than that.
Generally a three-year-old pairing a top is positive -- with a four-year-old it depends on how big the top was and how mature the horse is. THe older the horse is, more likely it will bounce off a top, again depending on how much improvement the horse showed, how much time off the horse had (a major factor), maybe the trainer's record in returning horse's off of tops and layoffs.

Example, a 4 year old who has raced 20 times, had a top Beyer (for simplicity-- I don't use them) of 80 is layed off for 6 months, comes up and runs a 95 is a good candidate to bounce. If he runs another 95, I bet on a bounce, unless he gets a nice rest. For a lightly-raced 3 yr old, the 2nd 95 and a 3-5 week rest could be the foundation for a continued move forward. But that also depends on how much the horse has developed overall in his lifetime.

I'm not saying I agree with all of the above, but that's my understanding from reading the book and studying some of the tapes.

[toetoe]

Fair enough, tlg.

[skate]

well, they were talking about capping.


also by somebody: not me.

""I consider this board to have many serious and enlightened horseplayers, and I'm just kind of wondering why there is a " basics of handicapping " lecture going on."""


so i guess "someones bascis" is below your cultured tastes.

or one mans fortune is anothers lost ticket. hey , all you need is a winner, chill.

"just kind of..." gees

[dutzman]

lets get this topic back on subject, it was rather interesting for an intermediate capper like myself................

[DrugSalvastore]

First of all I haven't had two consecutive losing years. I've been keeping good records for sixteen years and the two negative ones (quite small) were among those.

If I am reading that right---you've had 14 profitable years and 2 losing years.

If that is accurate, you're the best handicapper and bettor of all-time as far as I am concerned.

[DrugSalvastore]

It's much more complicated than that.

Fair enough Andicap. Here is Alan Banowitz (sp?) from thoro-graph's explanation of the "first time 4yo off a layoff" angle that I know many sheet players love.

When asked to explain what he meant when he said "often first time 4yo's run new tops after layoffs, especially under the tuteledge of layoff trainers" here was his reply.

"It's an observation, an observation, I think, borne out by figures, after looking at many, many sheets.

It seems that healthy looking horses, not necessarily stakes animals, but just good, healthy horses in general throw a big number first time out at 4, usually after a rest.

I think, and this is conjecture, that this period, tail end of sophomore campaign early into the 4yo year, is one of dynamic growth for the horse. They're really starting to mature, both physically and mentally, and whatever the talent level, it comes to the fore. Not all horses are precocious, so this seems to be the time that even the slow beginners start to show real signs of growth and development.

Quite often I think, a horse will throw a big effort in this spot and surprise its conditioner. The trainer hadn't been training the horse to run a big effort but all of the sudden it happens. Now when this natural growth is complemented by the acumen of a layoff conditioner, the chances for a new top increase even more."

That is a sheet player describing the angle I talked about in my post.

[andicap]

Far be it for me to contradict a Sheets guru, but I'm sure it's more likely a lightly raced 4 yr old will pair a top and move forward -- after a small rest -- than one who has raced a lot.