action bets=lookingfor profit

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Any suggestions on a structured wagering plan for the day concentrating solely on small action wagers(maybe a $40or50) daily operating bankroll.This plan would be ideal on those days when there are no serious wagers and/or a plan for a novice bettor to have some fun at the track with a better than average chance of coming home with a profit.

My idea is not a handicapping method but a structured wagering plan(maybe show paralaying, place etc.)The premise is to show profit while having fun at the track in addition to watching the races taking trip notes for future serious wagers.
thank you for your time and responses. zappi

[dav4463]

Look at the Last Race Beyer of each horse.....circle the top 4.....throw them out. Now, Look at best Beyer in last three races, bet any horses left that rank in the top 4 of Last 3 Beyers. You will get some value horses with this approach. Next, see if horse is top 3 consensus in DRF, if he is, and is under 6-1 throw him out.

You are playing horses that do not rank top 4 in last race Beyer, but do rank top 4 in Best Last three races Beyer. If horse is not a top three consensus pick, I assume some smart money is on him if he goes below 6-1, otherwise bet a top three consensus horse only at 6-1 or higher.

Most of the time you will be eliminating the top four Last Race Beyer horses, and the top three consensus horses(frequently the same horses). Then you look for a top four Last three race Beyer horse. You may bet up to three horses if you can find that many in a race, but it is rare.

[dav4463]

You can also go a more conservative way. Play a horse ranked in Top 4 of Best Last three Beyers, but not top four in Last Race Beyer that is also one of the consensus choices of the DRF. Limit play to odds of 7-2 or higher.

You will find less plays and miss a few bombs, but it has some good days.

[dav4463]

Sorry, just noticed that you were looking only for wagering strategy rather than a selection method....

[Jeff P]

Action Bets?

Don't do it.

This is a subject that touches a nerve with me. For years I would show up at the track or otb intent on playing the 2-3 potential overlays that I had identified after having handicapped the card for that day. My potential overlays were consistently profitable - maybe not that day - but certainly when looked at over the long haul. Trouble was I might have potential plays in R2, R3, and R8. Since there was nothing else to do at the track in the races in between I would read the form and study those races that I hadn't come to the track to play. Inevitably I would find myself making "action bets" while waiting for my next prime play to come up. Somehow my action bets grew to the point to where they were eating away a pretty good sized chunk of the profits from the overlays I had showed up to play. Part of what led to this was some early success with action bets. Along the way I got the mistaken idea in my head that I could walk on water - well almost - and that's a very dangerous mind set to have at the track if you know what I mean. Every round of success I would have with my action bets would always be followed by a cold snap where I would lose it all back and then some. I kept a pretty accurate set of records. Always have. Always will. I could see that my overlays, those plays I had driven across town to make, continued to churn out a profit. And I KNEW that's what I should have been focusing on. Didn't matter. Somehow making action bets became so habit forming for me that I ended up completely out of control. There were several years at the track where the amount of money wagered (and lost) on my action bets far exceeded the profits I was making on my overlays. I found myself in an interesting quandary. Here I was, fully CAPABLE of grinding out consistent healthy profits if I could only stick to my guns, but utterly unable to summon up the discipline to do so. Making action bets had become that ingrained into the way I was doing things. I tried everything I could think of to stop making action bets. Nothing worked. I thought I was going to have to give up horses altogether. Eventually I wrote a computer program that did only one job: It printed out the following information onto a single sheet of paper for my prime overlays each day: race number, post position, and name of horse. This sheet deliberately contained nothing else. I began taking THAT with me to the track each day along with a paperback - Stephen King, Dean Koontz, Tom Clancy, etc - and I would READ A BOOK instead of the Form while waiting for my prime plays to come up. I correctly figured out that reading the Form was where my own temptation for action bets was coming from. And believe it or not, that approach WORKED. Now, action bets are a thing of the past for me and I am able to consistently grind out a profit.

Want my advice on action bets? Three simple words: Don't do it.

-jp

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[Valuist]

I know this is a generalization and I don't advocate doing this every time, but I find the best "action" bet to be a 2x2x2 Pic 3. These are good when you maybe don't have any strong positive opinions, but maybe negative opinions on the favorite in two of the legs. Its a small number of tickets, so not much risk involved. Since you're tossing out a couple favorites, the possible reward is definitely there.

[toetoe]

Jeff,

I've known that for thirty five years, but I'm still guilty of, not exactly action bets, but serious bets, complicated by the very valid fear of bankroll ruin, as I try to deterministically hit every horse that 'should' win. Smart person, very dumb approach.

[coach_lowe]

Jeff,

No one factor has led to my demise at the track more than action-betting.

Out of curiosity, do you bet multiple tracks or just one?

SL

[andicap]

I agree, don't do it -- but if you must.
9 races. $5 a race

1. Bet $3 win on your top longshot.
2. Bet $2 exacta with the favorite (or YOUR favorite) over the longshot.

[cj]

If you must do it, keep the cost very low, and swing for the fences.

[fmhealth]

Zappi, I feel your pain! Used to "crave" action bets. Needed them to keep my interest at the appropriate level during a long day at the track. Invariably, came out on the very short end of a very long stick.

Not anymore. Buy the DRF the day before, 'cap three tracks. Usually come-up with 6-7 bets, that's it. Either go early to put my wagers in, or go at PT, put all my bets in, stick around for awhile & hit the road.

Have done MUCH BETTER with this targeted approach. BTW, I watch the races at home on the computer so I still get all the "action" that I need. Using this "system" I actually have a positive expectation & more importantly a positive ROI for the past six months. Now after 47 years of losing more than $300,000 I enjoy my new approach & expect to win every week. So far so good.

Best of luck!!!!!!!!!!