Polytrack part 2

[Valuist]

I was wondering if you database guys had any interesting numbers from TP. I know TVG keeps telling us that turf to poly is all the rage but I was wondering if there's any numbers to back that up. One thing I've noticed is that it seems to be difficult to stretch out from a sprint to a route and win.

[Buddha]

i have never read much about the polytrack, other knowing it is ground up rubber, sand, and other stuff. people think this will be the end of the winter cancellations at turfway. will it keep the track from actually freezing? is it possible that when moisture gets in it, that it could still freeze, and clod up, causing possible hazardous situations? like i said, i have done no investigation into it, so maybe i should just insert foot in mouth, but was just wondering.

[Valuist]

They keep saying that it all (moisture) just sinks into the ground and into a drainage system underneath the surface. But what about a real hard rain? I was thinking the same thing about the freezing. They've used it in England, but they don't get the bitter cold that Turfway sometimes gets.

[rastajenk]

Over the last few years, many, probably most, of Turfway's cancellations weren't due to a really deep freeze. They resulted from a freeze-thaw-refreeze-rethaw cycle that occurred at warmer, yet still freezing temps. In some situations it would be better if the temps stayed down over a period of time, say, a weekend, keeping the track frozen, rather than having the moisture come up, sit there (it's not going to evaporate very quickly in the winter), and clod up again overnight. So if the poly surface drains better in the afternoon, therein may lie the benefit.

[Buddha]

Yea, that is the problem that Mountaineer has a lot. The freeze/thaw/freeze/thaw cycle is killer. I talked to a trainer last night at Mountaineer, and he said that there isn't supposed to be any clodding of the polytrack, and that the only way they should cancel is temperatures just being too cold, nothing with the surface should cause a cancellation.

[Valuist]

The turf to poly has been played to death by the talking heads. How about a new angle.

Arlington ship-ins at Turfway:

After the first week, only 10 horses but most ran well. 3 wins and 4 seconds. I don't have the weekly charts yet for week 2 but some solid efforts on Saturday: Bubba Swayback, Under Caution and Beau Dare (KY Juvenile Fillies) all won and Humor at Last ran a very sharp 2nd at 23-1 to Estate Collection in the sprint. My theory is Arlington is not as speed favoring as some other tracks, so those horses may have a slight fitness edge over their rivals who've been running over conveyor belts.

[Valuist]

Thru the first 3 weeks of the meet, the outside posts in sprints have had a decided advantage:

80 sprint races:
outside post won 20 (25%) $208.80 returned ROI: $2.61
2nd outer post won 10 (12.5%) $184.80 returned ROI: $2.31

[cnollfan]

Great post, Valuist.

I specialize in turf front-runners, and after watching Old Deuteronomy run at Turfway Saturday, I can assure you that the polytrack ain't turf.

[Valuist]

Not even two full months of racing in the books at Turfway and one proven angle not surprisingly appears even more powerful over the Polytrack surface: horses for courses. Last night, 4 of the final 5 races were won by horses who'd already won over track and the other race was won by a horse coming off a 2nd over the Poly. Most of these horses had only run once or twice over the Polytrack. I may be stating the obvious, but apparently its not too obvious since the late P3 yesterday paid almost $500.

[Buddha]

It also appears to be holding up as advertised. Only 1 cancellation and it was due to incoming snow/ice. Meanwhile, CT, PEN, and MNR have all cancelled about 8-10 times or more this month alone

[Valuist]

I've noticed offspring of the stallion Catienus have been doing very well over the Polytrack at Turfway.

[Pgh. Gere]

Valuist- I searched DRF's news archives, as i remembered Byron King writing about the Turf to Polytrack angle. According to his research, I would stay away from the TVG guy, he shows out of a sample of 68, 32 or 47% ran a Beyer atleast 10 points below their last race turf beyer. 31% regressed more than 20pts. Based on his sample of 68, the column was written 12/08/05, 7 won, 7 placed and 5 showed, out of the 68 who ran their last race on turf. So 10% winners.

He has another article that supports what you've discovered, that training or having a race over the polytrack surface is key.

You may be familiar with this info, was from the begining of the meet, but hope it helps.

[Valuist]

I agree record over the track is probably the most significant angle there.

Also if you're going to come from far back, get widest so the horse doesn't have to inhale Polytrack kickback for the entire stretch run. Leparoux seems to know thats the case.

[DerbyTrail]

Val,

The one problem I keep seeing in trying to get any trend reads of PolyTrack is the fact that many horses just take half a dozen steps on it and pack it in. They hate it, and they don't run.

More exciting than ship-ins to TP is shippers FROM Turfway. Coming off the Poly seems to be a big plus. I'll have to go through some recent PP's/results to find the examples, but they're out there...

[hurrikane]

poly races tp


tTRK tLTRK noraces totwon NoWins Win% ROI
TP TP 2140 3342 267 0.12 0.78


Turf to Poly

tTRK noraces totwon NoWins Win% ROI
TP 57 20 2 .035 0.17


Poly shipping out

tTRK noraces totwon NoWins Win% ROI
AQU 3 0 0 0 0
BEU 130 325 23 0.17 1.25
EVD 1 19 1 1 9.5
FON 1 0 0 0 0
GP 21 46 2 0.09 1.09
LAD 8 7 1 0.12 0.43
MNR 17 17 1 0.05 0.5
OP 22 151 2 0.09 0.034
PHA 1 0 0 0 0
SA 5 8 1 0.2 0.8
SUN 1 0 0 0 0
TAM 11 0 0 0 0
TUP 1 0 0 0 0


ROI is on $1.00

the shipping out is the only one with potential it seems. pos ROI, low win % though

[GMB@BP]

I am more interested in if its keeping horses more healthy. I notice less injuries with turf horses in general, and am hoping the polytrack helps keep more horses on the track, which is good for everyone.

[tholl]

I wrote this for BRIS at the beginning of January. After another month and a half of racing a few things have become more evident. Certain stallions, Catienius included, are producing runners that excel, and they are NOT necessarily turf sires. There are good and bad spots on the track. i.e the rail is bad on the final turn, but good down the stretch (often see horses that look beat turning for home running on well down the stretch). The two and three paths are bad in the stretch, but wide is good. Most of the jockeys have now figured it out, especially Leparoux who is getting the good mounts.



Polytrack update.

With the end of the Holiday meet last Saturday and about six weeks of racing in the books this is a good time to reassess the performance of Turfway Park's new Polytrack surface. Through the Fall meet in September and early October a few changes had been noted and it is interesting to determine if these trends have been duplicated.

By installing the Polytrack the Turfway management hoped to gain a fair and consistent racetrack that would remain, most importantly, safe through the harsh and changeable winters conditions that Kentucky experiences. With few accidents in races and less reports of horses returning sore it certainly seems that so far this goal is being met. Indeed even the small complaint that was heard in September concerning the more dusty kickback seems to have lessened, maybe due to the as expected damper winter air. Additionally, while one has to admit that the weather has not been nearly as severe or changeable as what we will expect in deep winter, the track has only canceled one card--and that was to ensure the safety of the out of town trainers and their horses that would have been forced to ship to and from the track during an expected snowstorm. In comparison the Holiday meet of 2004 lost three cards due to the weather.

An equally pleasing statistic is the fact that the handle rose compared to the equivalent meet in 2004. While the overall take showed a huge gain, mostly due to the signal being taken in two new major markets, the on-track handle rose significantly, by almost 12%. It has to be fair to say that this rise is a result in the larger fields that have been drawn--an average of 10.4 percent runners per race compared to 9.9 percent for the same period a year earlier which in turn is, at least partly, a reflection of the trainers’ happiness with the surface.

In addition to providing a safe, consistent, surface much has been made of the Polytrack’s ability to lessen the impact of track bias. With Turfway historically owning a severe and changeable bias it has served as a good testing site and the results from September had suggested that this may have been working. Indeed studying 100 sprints between six and 6 ½ furlongs it was found that horse leading, or contesting the pace from the start, won 14 percent less of the time. During this past November and December there were 117 races run at this sprint distance and the figure dropped a further 8% to where it now appears that horses coming just off the pace, or pressing, have a better chance at victory. An even bigger change, however, is noted in the chances of the late runners, or closers.

Fall ‘04(Dirt) Holiday ‘04 (Dirt) Fall ‘05 (Poly) Holiday (Poly)
Style Win % Style Win % Style Win% Style Win %


Speed 56% Speed 49% Speed 42% Speed 34%

Pressers 33% Pressers 34% Pressers 41% Pressers 38%

Closers 11% Closers 17% Closers 17% Closers 28%


For many years it seemed that outside posts have held an advantage in 6 and 6 ½ furlong sprints and this remained true in Turfway’s inaugural Polytrack meet. However, and while it may still be too early to draw concrete conclusions, after studying the 117 races run during the more recent Holiday meet one may have reason to suspect a change.

2005 Fall (Polytrack) Win % 2005 Holiday (Polytrack) Win %

Rail 11% Rail 7%

*1-4 9% 1-4 8%

*5-8 12% 5-8 12%

*9+ 15% 9+ 8%

*Post position stats represent win percentage from all starters for each post grouping.

In the longer races, of a mile and over, it does appear that horses coming from off the pace are also performing slightly better than in the past. The one mile distance, with the start very close to the first turn has always been notorious for producing inside, wire-to-wire winners and while this is definitely less pronounced there is still not enough data, or change, to draw any logical conclusions.

When dealing with track biases an important factor that needs to be kept in mind is the role of the jockey. Often when there is evidence that the track is favoring front runners many riders will gun for the lead right out of the gate, cause a speed duel and hand the race to a closer. Likewise the reverse may happen when it is suspected the surface is playing to the advantage of closers--many jockeys will take back and the race will end up being won by the lone horse on an easy lead. This second scenario has occurred on several occasions during the meet which reminds one to be wary of plain statistics, especially with a smallish sample. However, this also serves as a reminder to pay attention to which jockeys are taking advantage of the different conditions. Indeed there seems to be a growing division in the Turfway jockey colony between those that are reading the Polytrack well and those that are not. Jesus Castanon, Willie Martinez, Eddie Martin, apprentice Julien Leparoux and Lori Wydick dominated the Holiday meet. Wydick, winning at 15 percent, is especially noteworthy for the value she has provided her followers by bringing home several longshot winners.

During the Fall meet many had noted the success of turf sires over the Polytrack and indeed leading grass sires such as Red Ransom, Rahy, Lear Fan and Royal Academy did have their share of winners. However more success was achieved by stallions who might be classed as "adaptable" and that could pass on a desirable mixture of early dirt speed combined with late turf kick. Tale Of The Cat (Storm Cat) and Grand Slam (Gone West) both seem to fit this profile, in that as racehorses they performed well in sprints and routes, and both showed some ability on the turf. As sires they are rated as "C" and "B" respectively as turf producers (according to the Sire Stat book) and both own the same average winning distance for their offspring at 6.8f. Tale Of The Cat led the sires, by wins, through the first Polytrack meet, with five wins while Grand Slam recorded four victories.

Another similarity between Tale And The Cat and Grand Slam in relation to their Polytrack success becomes interesting when one looks at the immediate pedigrees of six of the seven leading sires, (by wins), over the new surface for the two meets combined.

Sire Wins Sire Sireline Broodmare Sire Broodmare's Sireline

Tale Of the Cat 10 Storm Cat Northern Dancer Mr. Prospector Raise A Native
Sefapiano 8 Fappiano Raise A Native Lt Stevens Nantallah
Catienus 6 Storm Cat Northern Dancer Mr Prospector Raise A Native
Cat Thief 5 Storm Cat Northern Dancer Alydar Raise A Native
Chester House 5 Mr Prospector Raise A Native El Gran Senor Northern Dancer
Grand Slam 5 Gone West Raise A Native El Gran Senor Northern Dancer

Even though this sample is relatively small the dominance of the Storm Cat, Northern Dancer/ Mr Prospector, Raise A Native cross is certainly significant and could be the basis of pedigrees that may spell "Polytrack".

[GMB@BP]

Tholl,

good stuff. I know CJ has been keeping stats on where in the money runners have been coming from and what is amazing is its very consistent day to day, in fact the fall meet was the most consistent track in the country in comparison.

[twindouble]

When dealing with track biases an important factor that needs to be kept in mind is the role of the jockey. Often when there is evidence that the track is favoring front runners many riders will gun for the lead right out of the gate, cause a speed duel and hand the race to a closer. Likewise the reverse may happen when it is suspected the surface is playing to the advantage of closers--many jockeys will take back and the race will end up being won by the lone horse on an easy lead. This second scenario has occurred on several occasions during the meet which reminds one to be wary of plain statistics, especially with a smallish sample. However, this also serves as a reminder to pay attention to which jockeys are taking advantage of the different conditions. Indeed there seems to be a growing division in the Turfway jockey colony between those that are reading the Polytrack well and those that are not. Jesus Castanon, Willie Martinez, Eddie Martin, apprentice Julien Leparoux and Lori Wydick dominated the Holiday meet. Wydick, winning at 15 percent, is especially noteworthy for the value she has provided her followers by bringing home several longshot winners. Quote; tholl.

Aside from the stats the above is an excellent point. Helps to dispell the idea the jocks and trainers don't bring a strategy into a given race or adapt to changing conditions.

I passed on playing the track because up untill this past week to 10 days I was doing well at Mnr. Normally when ever there's radical changes in conditions or wagering there's excellent opportunity for a player. I missed the boat sofar but might take a shot at it.


T.D.

[Valuist]

Thx for the great post, Tholl. It did confirm what I thought about Catienus, and its interesting other Storm Cat stallions are doing well.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"so.cal.fan-research ideas on polytrack

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Class (stamina); Competitivesness (assertiveness); Physical fitness (form, no big negatives for injury or weariness); lengths in front at 1st call (enough to overcome fading stats?).
__________________
I also wrote that consistent ITM types should do well. Anyone agree or disagreee with these?

[twindouble]

"so.cal.fan-research ideas on polytrack

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Class (stamina); Competitivesness (assertiveness); Physical fitness (form, no big negatives for injury or weariness); lengths in front at 1st call (enough to overcome fading stats?).
__________________
I also wrote that consistent ITM types should do well. Anyone agree or disagreee with these?

Anyone would have to agree, it's a dream horse ESP with value. :cool:

[hurrikane]

Gee,
wish I could write a well. I could be a star.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"http://www.awsf.co.uk/courses_trackmaintenanceguide_polytrack.htm.
The cold, snowy weather must have caused Turfway to stiffen up some Sunday and produce more stamina on the front end. Back to even slower times today Wed!

[GlenninOhio]

"http://www.awsf.co.uk/courses_trackmaintenanceguide_polytrack.htm.
The cold, snowy weather must have caused Turfway to stiffen up some Sunday and produce more stamina on the front end. Back to even slower times today Wed!

I can attest to the "stamina on the front end".

I ran Fly Away Angel in the Weekend Delight last Saturday, and if you check out the chart you'll see that the #1, #2, #3 runners were on top all the way in various permutations.

This is part and parcel of a tendency toward "boat races" when they're running long, often with a very slow pace. I don't know if this will show up in the great figures many of you keep, but it certainly has been the case in my limited experience.

On "horses for courses", Fly Away Angel is stabled at TP so it's very tempting to run her there, but I'm going to stop behaving like the fly who keeps bumping into the window pane trying to get outside and ship her next out. She's run five times on poly and these collectively have resulted in her worst Beyers in 20+ starts. Here's hoping the "train on poly and ship out" angle works for her!

By no means is this a complaint about poly - she trains great on the surface and it is kind to the horses. But some do love to race on it and some don't - just a fact of life.

[Valuist]

Glenn-

Are the horses who run there inhaling the Polytrack particles from all the kickback? If you see some of the riders, even when its not very cold, wear something that covers up their mouths and nostrils. They usually only wear that stuff when its really cold but they've been wearing it even when its 50 degrees. Interesting how Keeneland has a Polytrack for their training track but not their regular racing surface. No doubt the surface is better for the horses legs; as for their lungs, the jury is out.

[GlenninOhio]

Glenn-

Are the horses who run there inhaling the Polytrack particles from all the kickback? If you see some of the riders, even when its not very cold, wear something that covers up their mouths and nostrils. They usually only wear that stuff when its really cold but they've been wearing it even when its 50 degrees. Interesting how Keeneland has a Polytrack for their training track but not their regular racing surface. No doubt the surface is better for the horses legs; as for their lungs, the jury is out.

Excellent question - I will speak to my trainer and get back to you.

She doesn't show any obvious after-effects like coughing. And to be totally fair, she had some unrelated physical issues that she was working through over the past 6 months.

I do believe Keeneland is looking to install poly for fall 2006 or spring 2007. They own 1/2 of Turfway and as the story went they were using TP as the testing grounds for actual poly racing and it's been given the thumbs up.

[Hosshead]

I think the point that Valuist brings up is valid, and is something I thought about as soon as I heard that there was so much kick back on the Polytrack.
And it's so obvious !

I bet the companies that make the stuff, the tracks that use it, and promote it, don't want to even think about (much less run independent tests), on the effect it has on the lungs,eyes,respiratory system etc. of horses OR humans. All the attention has been on the legs/feet.
Have you ever inhaled small (suspended) particles of attic (fiberglass) insulation ? Just a few particles are murder on your lungs.
I know horses have evolved with a natural defense against breathing dirt/dust.
But this is not dirt/dust.

I wonder if the tracks will urge riders not to "draw attention" by wearing "protection" over their nose/mouth.

Some day, the truth will get out. But in the meantime.........
You would think that jockeys riding with gas masks would tip somebody off !! :eek:

[Pgh. Gere]

They've been running on the Polytrack surface in England since 1991. From what I've read about it, horses there have had problems with the kick back, similar to here. Some handle it, some don't. Haven't seen anything regarding the respiratory concerns for either horse or jockey. Would seem like enough time and races have been run over it, for these concerns to come to light.

Having said that, I have to agree that the face masks the jocks are wearing does raise some eyebrows.

[sjk]

I can attest to the "stamina on the front end".

I ran Fly Away Angel in the Weekend Delight last Saturday, and if you check out the chart you'll see that the #1, #2, #3 runners were on top all the way in various permutations.

This is part and parcel of a tendency toward "boat races" when they're running long, often with a very slow pace. I don't know if this will show up in the great figures many of you keep, but it certainly has been the case in my limited experience.

On "horses for courses", Fly Away Angel is stabled at TP so it's very tempting to run her there, but I'm going to stop behaving like the fly who keeps bumping into the window pane trying to get outside and ship her next out. She's run five times on poly and these collectively have resulted in her worst Beyers in 20+ starts. Here's hoping the "train on poly and ship out" angle works for her!

By no means is this a complaint about poly - she trains great on the surface and it is kind to the horses. But some do love to race on it and some don't - just a fact of life.

The race was the "Likely Exchange". I have the trophy to prove it.

Say hello to Bill for me. He trained our horses for several years and is a great guy.

[kenwoodallpromos]

There is some online sites addressing kickback. They claim less than dirt.

[caberguy]

Last week the CHRB in a unanimous vote has decided that all tracks in California by the year 2007 will be polytrack. This excludes any track with quarter horses or harness racing. (ie Los Alamitos).

[kenwoodallpromos]

BM, GGF, HOL, SA, DM.