Hoosier Park, Throw out the Figs, bet the speed and the closers

[sparkywowo]

Hoosier Park has been running very weird, for the most part you can throw out the speed figs, they have been just about worthless so far this season.

I think, in part due to the 7 furlong track's tight turns and cheap horses, the results have been routinely non chalky. Basically, it's almost a combination of a speed bias and a closer bias.

Typically a cheapy will take the lead into the turn, where no one can press very effectively, everything near the front end tires turning for home but the cheapy hangs on well enough and then gets nailed late by an off pace type.

If a horse with good early speed and good figures does not look fast enough to get the lead into the turn you are looking at a likely out of the money favorite. Strong moves on the turn have been few and far between.

[Overlay]

Typically a cheapy will take the lead into the turn, where no one can press very effectively, everything near the front end tires turning for home but the cheapy hangs on well enough and then gets nailed late by an off pace type.

You described that clearly enough, but if the closer is consistently catching the cheap speed at the finish, wouldn't that be evidence of a pure closer bias, rather than both a speed bias and a closer bias?

[sparkywowo]

The way I see it, if it were a speed bias the speed would hang tough and run 1-2 and the closers wouldn't make an impact. If it were a closer bias, the back half of the field would comprise a cavalry charge to the wire. But, it isn't playing like that.

The place horse has often been cheap speed, the win horse has often been an uninspiring off pace type the catches the speed very late, and the beaten chalk has often been a horse with good figures and a front running or pace pressing style that isn't quite quick enough to make the lead into the turn. The beaten chalk is being done in by the speed bias, and the winner is benefitting more from race dynamics.

Biases are often characterized by distended margins. Here, there is not a distended margin between first and second, but there is a distended margin between the just-off-the-lead types and the 1-2 finishers.

[JohnGalt1]

I've played Hoosier Labor Day and 9/15 and beg to differ.

I make my own pace and speed figs using the method in Sarin's Pace Makes the Race. Maybe you use a different method to create your figs.

On 9/15 on a sloppy track, Race 1 a Mdn Sp the winner had a 157 TPR. The only other horse with a race had a 151. I lost with a well bread 1st time starter.

Race 2 I had the winner who was a horse with a 161 with the best EP and all 10 races in the pps were higher class. A closer had a 161 and the next highest was 155.

Race 3 cheap mdn clm I took all ina pick 3, all were bad.

Race 4 I had the winner who was an EP with all 10 races higher class and a 161. Next highest was 157.

Race 5 Mdn clm One bad horse had good 5f workout. He won, but I didn't bet the race.

Race 6 I bet and lost with an EP horse with a 169, Nest best was 165. He didn't win either.

Race 7 I bet the entry. Both were P horses with 173 and 171. The 173 finished 2nd. Another was 172. Though the fig horses lost, since it was sloppy, a closer finishing second wasn't bad, even though I lost.

Race 8 I bet 2 horsed to win, the top fig 169 and third fig 165. The 169 won and paid $13.20. They also paid on 2 of 3 in the pick three. Another reason I like smaller tracks.

Race 9 The top fog horse had a 168, nine points higher than the next one. It finished dead last. An explanation lmight be it was an allowance and turf horse that was dropped into a $5K clm at Cby by Mac Robertson, the top trainer, was claimed and now entered for the same 5K. Was he entered for 5k twice because they knew he was damaged goods. I lost another win bet on it. At least I don't have to feed it.

Race 10 I bet 2 horses to win, a 177 and a 174. The next horse was 169. The 174 won. The 177 was Onlyinyourimignation that broke the 108.3 Cby track record on Claiming Crown day with a 108.0. He finished last as the favorite.

Race 11 a bad Mdn spc. 5 horses had races. Two with 154. One of them one. He had the fasted 5f wo. I passed the race.

I admit this was only one day, but sometimes figures from other tracks don't transfer to other tracks as well. I use Cynthia's Pars Plus for track to track comparisons.

And to show that I'm not red lining I want to point out that on 9/15 I also played 5 races at BM winning 2 but lost 60% of the money I bet and played 3 races at AP and lost every bet.

I'm glad Hoo ran mostly to form and that I ended the day slightly up.

[sparkywowo]

Thanks for the reply, I was hoping to get another opinion. :)

First, let me clarify that by "fig" I mean simply a horse's Beyer Speed Figure as published in the DRF. I do not mean any other rating or combination of ratings. I use speed figures to help narrow the list of contenders in a race. And, importantly, the Beyer Speed Figures drive the tote board. A horse who ran 80, 75, 80 in it last three starts will be favored, heavily favored, over a field where no one ever cracks 70.

To compare notes on the 15th, I would say the first 6 races, and the 11th, were too woeful to make the speed figures predictive.

7th race To me, the contenders looked like Snow Shot and Stitchery, Snow Shot in a Sustained type that runs figs around 70, Stitchery is an Early that at best runs a 60. On the figs, its a no brainer, Snow Shot, and as part of the entry, it is off at 8-5. Stitchery is 25-1. Snow Shot is 2nd, and Stitchery 4th, race is won by Iwo Hero, another 25-1 shot that comes out of the 2nd postion around the turn. Race is 5.5 Furlongs.

8th race Favored Miesque's Daughter (6-5) has trouble out of the gate, makes a big move to the lead while runnning to the outside to the turn, looks like a winner and then gets nailed late by High Strike (5-1).

9th Image of Approval (5-1) and Celtic Approval (7-5) have the best figs in the field, some numbers in the 70's, most others have figs in the 60's. Rakien (9-2) takes the lead, holds off the challlenge of Image of Approval, then gets nailed by the last-to-first Woodsnwaters (13-1)

WOODSNWATERS trailed for half from off the rail, bid through the turn, fanned into mid-track for the drive and caught the leader late to edge to the front. RAKIEN set the pace into the lane, was challenged near the eighth pole, repelled that rival then could not hold the winner safe. IMAGE OF APPROVAL settled early, bid three wide turn, fanned four wide into the lane, moved to near even terms for the lead with and eighth to go and looked poised to go on by then flattened out.

10th Onlynurimagination a 3-5 stickout is last. Peace and Joy (4-1) leads most of the way and fails to Boogie Woogie Man (5-2).

BOOGIE WOOGIE MAN was unhurried early from off the rail, came five wide into the lane when gaining momentum, continued in mid-track and commenced a long drive under strong left hand urging to edged to the front late. PEACE AND JOY set the pace while under pressure into the lane, remained on a narrow lead after repelling two rivals then was all out while drifting out inside the sixteenth pole and yielded to the winner late. ONLYNURIMAGINATION stalked the leader three wide through the turn then retreated through the lane.

[JohnGalt1]

I agree with you that many of the races had too little info to handicap with speed figs.

I appreciate the added details of how the races were run as I went home after the second race and got the results this morning.

When I make my figs I average the best 2 of the horse's last 3 races if not off a layoff. If off a layoff I average 2 of the 3 best races after layoffs. If only one layoff race I'll take that race and the fastest and average them.

I want to get the best idea how he'll run today. And by doing my own I'm using figs others aren't using.

[rrbauer]

While I don't follow Hoosier Park routinely it's been my experience that horses shipping from Hoosier to other venues DO NOT run back to the Beyers that they had at Hoosier. In other words, the Beyers at Hoosier overstate their performances vis-a-vis their performances at the other tracks.

[sparkywowo]

The horses exit the turn just past the 1/4 pole on this 7 f oval. It makes the track configuration like the old expanded Sportsman's Park in Chicago. Very tight and big banking on the turns. It is hard for me to throw out a superior looking horse, but, after seeing them continue to lose it's getting easier. HOO really has it own "FACTOR X superior to TURN TIME" form.

[Valuist]

I know exactly what you are saying. Basically its difficult to stalk or press wide at Hoosier. Either go to the front, or come from far back. Those 3 wide pressing moves that often win at Arlington or Belmont do not win often at Hoosier. Similar a bit to Sportsman's but the turns aren't as sharp. Spt was like a stretched out rubber band with straightaways that were too long and turns that were too sharp. Other than that, the track was perfect :D .

Too bad they had to wreck the old (5f) Sportsmans. That was a great track to bet.

RRBauer-

I have found the same thing but always felt it had something to do with race day Bute. I have noticed that at other tracks that allow race day Bute.