Pace handicapping defined and explained.

[nobeyerspls]

OK. Here goes. I know nothing about pace handicapping. Wait a minute, that might be wrong. Let me start again. I know nothing about pace figures, their computation and use. There that's better.

In an earlier thread I noted that uncontested speed is a productive angle, especially in two-turn races. This seems to take pace into account but I have never had to compute any figures when employing it successfully. Also, I have done well with horses going slightly longer out of a race where they set a hotly contested pace and then quit. Works great going from 6f to 7f. Again, never had to quantify the pace thing.

Now, some of you compute and use pace figures. First, tell me how you compute them. Then, let's pick a race at Belmont tomorrow and use those figures to predict the outcome. The only restriction is that the horse should be 7/2 or more in the morning line. I like 10-1 or better but that might be a reach for this method. I certainly don't need help finding odds-on horses.

So, I'll be on here early looking for your input. And I will participate. It will be a kick if my handicapping method finds your horse. Thanks in advance for assisting in my continuing education and no tuition bill please.

[twindouble]

OK. Here goes. I know nothing about pace handicapping. Wait a minute, that might be wrong. Let me start again. I know nothing about pace figures, their computation and use. There that's better.

In an earlier thread I noted that uncontested speed is a productive angle, especially in two-turn races. This seems to take pace into account but I have never had to compute any figures when employing it successfully. Also, I have done well with horses going slightly longer out of a race where they set a hotly contested pace and then quit. Works great going from 6f to 7f. Again, never had to quantify the pace thing.

Now, some of you compute and use pace figures. First, tell me how you compute them. Then, let's pick a race at Belmont tomorrow and use those figures to predict the outcome. The only restriction is that the horse should be 7/2 or more in the morning line. I like 10-1 or better but that might be a reach for this method. I certainly don't need help finding odds-on horses.

So, I'll be on here early looking for your input. And I will participate. It will be a kick if my handicapping method finds your horse. Thanks in advance for assisting in my continuing education and no tuition bill please.


I've given this a lot thought, primarlly because I like it here. Relics like you and I can to a great degree come up with opposing arguements or points of view that support what we concider basic when it comes to handicapping. A better idea is to just buy it and put it to the test ourselves. We can partner up and share the cost if you care to. In other words I don't think its fair for us to come here and knock a product they are selling without testing it, as a matter of fact I just checked and there's a waiting list to get it.

I see no point in staying here and eventually being percieved as antagonist's on the subject. What do you think?

[cj]

I don't take his post as antagonizing. The problem is, there isn't much more I can say about pace on this board. If I haven't said it in my first nearly 7,000 posts, I probably won't ever say it! :D

ps...It is still just one factor in the handicapping process.

[twindouble]

I don't take his post as antagonizing. The problem is, there isn't much more I can say about pace on this board. If I haven't said it in my first nearly 7,000 posts, I probably won't ever say it! :D

ps...It is still just one factor in the handicapping process.

I hope your not suggesting I read 7,000 posts before I buy? :eek: I realize it's just one factor and any triditional handicapper know's the importance of pace. I just want to know if and how your figures advance pace handicaping beyond what I've applied over the years.

T.D.

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Twin & CJ

This isn't about a fight over handicapping methods and strategies. It's about learning. I don't come on here to tout my methods but I do sense an obligation to share things that have worked for me with others. In so doing I maintain a two-way street. I have posted five of seven angles that I use to find live longshots. When the other two are posted I will start threads that identify plays from these angles on the morning of the race.

In this thread I am asking CJ and others to handicap a Belmont race tomorrow that best provides validation for pace handicapping. They will tell us who will win based on pace figures. It's that simple. If the concept is so strong that people are paying money to use it, I have basically served up a softball that they will hit out of the park.

[twindouble]

Hiya Twin & CJ

This isn't about a fight over handicapping methods and strategies. It's about learning. I don't come on here to tout my methods but I do sense an obligation to share things that have worked for me with others. In so doing I maintain a two-way street. I have posted five of seven angles that I use to find live longshots. When the other two are posted I will start threads that identify plays from these angles on the morning of the race.

In this thread I am asking CJ and others to handicap a Belmont race tomorrow that best provides validation for pace handicapping. They will tell us who will win based on pace figures. It's that simple. If the concept is so strong that people are paying money to use it, I have basically served up a softball that they will hit out of the park.

Understood but one day of racing wouldn't prove anything as you know. Based on cj's comments we can continue to give our opinions without creating a neg feed back on this board.

[JustRalph]

I don't take his post as antagonizing. The problem is, there isn't much more I can say about pace on this board. If I haven't said it in my first nearly 7,000 posts, I probably won't ever say it! :D

ps...It is still just one factor in the handicapping process.

and after reading about 6000 of those posts......... I still can't use it worth a damn!!! :D

[GMB@BP]

OK. Here goes. I know nothing about pace handicapping. Wait a minute, that might be wrong. Let me start again. I know nothing about pace figures, their computation and use. There that's better.

In an earlier thread I noted that uncontested speed is a productive angle, especially in two-turn races. This seems to take pace into account but I have never had to compute any figures when employing it successfully. Also, I have done well with horses going slightly longer out of a race where they set a hotly contested pace and then quit. Works great going from 6f to 7f. Again, never had to quantify the pace thing.

.

think about it, what you are talking about has zero to do with pace figures or calculations, but more to do with race shape.

horses that have easy leads dont have to have better pace figures. thats why i always start with a race shape profile. it might render all the figures pretty much useless.

horses who stretch from 6 to 7 might get the race shape they want, again have very little to do with figures. Of course if they do hold signifigant advantages in their pace and final figures at 6 I like the stetchout, if they dont I like horses on the cutback as they will run down that cheap horse.

[classhandicapper]

People make and use pace figures differently. In fact, if you see multiple sets of pace figures you will find that they disagree or measure different things even more often than multiple sets of speed figures.

IMO, the best use is in identifying very fast and slow paced races where the front runners (or those sitting off the pace) were either advantaged or disadvantaged by the pace enough to impact their chances of winning and/or earning their best possible speed figure.

Some people formulize their pace ratings and final time figures to produce one performance figure.

Some use pace ratings try to categorize horses and match them to race conditions.

I compare the pace numbers to my visual impressions of the race and the speed/quality of the horses in the race to help form a trip-like view of the race and the horses that also includes bias, ground loss, and internal quick moves etc.... This goes beyond the speed figures, but without creating a performance figure. It's more subjective and less precise but more inclusive.

Everyone tries to find their own way of using them. I think the real key is that almost everyone that uses them for awhile agrees that they have a lot of value in helping to understand performances better.

[Light]

Now, some of you compute and use pace figures. First, tell me how you compute them.

Well I'll tell you an interesting observation I've had with a unique twist on pace recently. 2 races at BM,with the same pace pattern resulted in a $32 winner and a $159.80 winner.How? read on.

BM Sept 3 race #7.Texas Toby. Route Race. Toby was routing for only the 2nd time in his life. His last race was his first route.I selected his race 2 back from a sprint. I use Bris. When compared to the rest of the field,the LP of Texas Toby from 2 back sprinting was the highest in the field by 5 points.Came flying late.$32.00 winner

BM Sept 11 Race #7 Marquee Affair.Route Race. This horse was off allmost 8 months and sprinted for his comebacker. Then Routed in his last race. I chose the better race just like with Toby,the 2 back sprint. Once again,you have a bomb with the highest LP in the field(by 3 points). Came flying late $159.80 winner.

The point is that pace pointed to the winner but it was prefaced but the horse's pattern or cycle.On top of that you have to select the proper race to consider for your pace figures.Without picking the proper race for pace,those horses would look like hopeless longshots.

[Light]

WOW

Just noticed my red dot. Looks like anyone who goes to the off topic section and disagrees with Lefty gets one. But hey,chicks like them bad boys.

[nobeyerspls]

GMB

I thought that I made it clear that I know nothing at all about pace figures. The two examples I cited had something to do with the pace of the race.

I'll be learning a lot about pace figures starting tomorrow.

[GMB@BP]

GMB

I thought that I made it clear that I know nothing at all about pace figures. The two examples I cited had something to do with the pace of the race.

I'll be learning a lot about pace figures starting tomorrow.

why tomorrow?

[nobeyerspls]

Light

You might as well post in Chinese. Never looked at Bris and don't know what an LP is. I use the printed version of the Racing Form. Can pace figures be computed from data given there? If so, how is it done?

I'm hoping that those who use pace figures can explain them in a clear and concise way.

[toetoe]

LIght,

I know it's just a coincidence, but have you noticed that a large %age of your steeds have to "come flying" to win? That 170-bucker was an overlay, but he had failed at the level multiple times, and he had had the Ky. breeding his whole life. That said, the rider swung off the turn with "a ton" of horse, and only had to outgame Gonzalez' exhausted strecher-outer for the win. Hope you had him. Calo didn't say, " ... at a NICE price," or "How do you like him now?," did he?

[nobeyerspls]

Twin

We can start this process tomorrow. Belmont's 6th is allowance fillies sprinting with eleven entered. Certainly the pace figure guys could look at that race and identify one that sticks out and a few to be ignored.

Maybe we'll pick a Sunday race and then start all over next weekend. We should start to understand what they are doing. Right now I haven't a clue.

[GMB@BP]

Twin

We can start this process tomorrow. Belmont's 6th is allowance fillies sprinting with eleven entered. Certainly the pace figure guys could look at that race and identify one that sticks out and a few to be ignored.

Maybe we'll pick a Sunday race and then start all over next weekend. We should start to understand what they are doing. Right now I haven't a clue.

I will throw my two cents in tonight, I know a thing or two about pace

[Jeff P]

posted by Toetoe- Calo didn't say, " ... at a NICE price," or "How do you like him now?," did he? When he called the stretch run his voice was kind of flat or pained compared to his usual overly boisterous way of calling em. Reading between the lines I think he may have been thinking about playing a bomb in the race but didn't have this one. I believe his actual words during the stretch run were "and here's the 1 Marquee Affair to blow everything up at 75-1..." I thought it a little odd at the time because unless there's an incident like a lost rider or a fall, track announcers just about never call the horse's saddle cloth number during a race.

-jp

.

[twindouble]

Twin

We can start this process tomorrow. Belmont's 6th is allowance fillies sprinting with eleven entered. Certainly the pace figure guys could look at that race and identify one that sticks out and a few to be ignored.

Maybe we'll pick a Sunday race and then start all over next weekend. We should start to understand what they are doing. Right now I haven't a clue.

I wouldn't mind handicapping a race or two and post my opinions on them here or one card for that matter. They are forcasting rain in NY for tomorrow, I already passed with partner of mine for that reason, lot of scratches as you know.

[toetoe]

Yeah, it's just the boister that gets to me, Jeff. "HE'S AT 75 TO ONE" is okay, and it won't be used every race. It must be tough to call so many small-field races, also.

[Jeff P]

posted by Nobeyerspls- What's a LP? LP is an abbreviation for Late Pace. Go over to the Bris site at www.brisnet.com/ - Open an account, and for $1.00 you can download the DRF Single file for tomorrow's Belmont Card. Download their free Past Performance Generator as well. Then view the Bris pp's for tomorrow's Belmont card in the Past Performance Generator. That way you'll know what some of us are talking about as we try to pick apart or discuss tomorrow's races. It has the overall look and feel of what you see in the Form. But you'll also see pace figures that represent ability/effort put out by each horse at different points of call for each running line. These pace figures, crude as they may be with all the inherent faults we find in them and discuss on this message board, can still make a pretty decent starting point for analyzing races once you get a handle on how to use them. Go to the library link on the Bris site. There you can find an explanation of what these pace figures represent along with hints at how they are computed. If nothing else, consider it a learning experience and have fun with it.

-jp

.

[Light]

LIght,

but he had failed at the level multiple times

Marquee failed at 4kn2l only 3 times previously and with only 14 lifetime starts ,how could you throw him out? Most Allowance horses don't break their conditions in 3 starts so you gotta be more flexible than that. The other interesting thing about that race is if you look at the even $ fav in that race Tusko Charlie whose last dirt race was a sprint, and Marquee's dirt sprint,they are very close. I gave Marquee a 167 Sartin and Tusko a 170 Sartin.Marquee had the best LP and Tusko had the 2nd best LP. This 10 horse field had 4 "E" horses,and 2 "EP" horse. So this race set up well for closers. No mystery that these P3(Tusko) and S0(Marquee) horses ran 1-2. Huey Mahl was right about this one

[Tom]

So what is the plan....post pace analysis of Bel R6 in this thread, or meet in th e WarRoom and talk live?

Whatever, should be fun - always like talking races, especially before they run it.
If anyone makes any sense, I'll have time to lay down a couple bucks! :D :eek:

[Red Knave]

If anyone makes any sense ...
Sure, go and spoil it by demanding logic :D

[nobeyerspls]

Hi Tom

I'll post my pick's for the race and then those that use pace figures can give them a critical review. I'll be using my standard, non-technical, old-foggy methods and will then learn how they match those that use pace figures.
Two caveats. Normally my Belmont activity is limited to maidens and turf races because my records show that those are the most productive. Also, I seldom play wet tracks but here goes anyway.

BEL 6th (9/17

#1 Sweeping Glance is the consensus pick but I expect #2 April True to be the deserving favorite. She has a strong off-track race and a bullet work since her last. The fact that she quit at 6f and is going 7f today doesn't bother me. I don't like the fact that she has to ship to the race but she overcame that before (not sure why NY breds are stabled out of state). Not having raced at Belmont is a minor negative.

I'll discount the #1 and take #11 Lady Elaine to run with her. She's been freshened, is working well, and has solid connections. Of course with one good race and five clunkers she is a reach. Further, if she drew more from the Cozzene gene pool than from Bounding Basque, she won't walk in the mud let alone run in it. My gut says to look to the broodmare sire so I'll stick with her. Along with #1, I'll use #9 Sister Concern and the #10 Miss Lakefield somehow in trifectas with my top two. I won't bet the #2 at a short place but also won't bet straight to beat her. A 2/11 exacta box might work if the odds aren't too low. I tend to watch races that I have handicapped if the potential returns are low.

After posting this I looked back at the beyer column (something I never do) and note that the #2 is the best last race beyer. There might be some irony here. Also, thanks to Jeff P for explaining that LP means late pace. I'm not too cheap to spend a buck to visit Bris but if you explain your terms I won't have to. I'll visit back here later and also check the war room.

[Tom]

Cool, Nobeyer- I'll work the race using nothing but BRIS PPs and thier pace figures, and post it here/ See you in the WarRoom.
Lools like Belmont is crying out Bet Me! Bet Me! today!:D

[keilan]

6th at Belmont is written for NY breds, pretty much the toughest field to cap imo. I'm about as deeply orientated in “pace” as anyone here on this board but I find these races impossible. :)

[Overlay]

My fair-odds line on the sixth at Belmont today (Saturday, 17 September):

April True: 1-2
Riserva: 8-1
Sweeping Glance: 8-1
Sister Concern: 16-1
Lady Elaine: 28-1
One Mean Queen: 39-1
Sweet Nobility: 75-1
Black Light Dancer: 92-1
Miss Lakefield: 97-1
Ms. Will a Way: 138-1
Excellent Charisma: 185-1

[the little guy]

My fair-odds line on the sixth at Belmont today (Saturday, 17 September):

April True: 1-2
Riserva: 8-1
Sweeping Glance: 8-1
Sister Concern: 16-1
Lady Elaine: 28-1
One Mean Queen: 39-1
Sweet Nobility: 75-1
Black Light Dancer: 92-1
Miss Lakefield: 97-1
Ms. Will a Way: 138-1
Excellent Charisma: 185-1Really? So, you think Lady Elaine, who is making a trainer and rider switch from Deborah Bodner and Rudy Rodriguez to Dutrow and Prado, is 28-1 to win this race?

Can I get a little of that? Hell, I'll even settle for 20-1.

[sjk]

NAME odds
APRIL TRUE 2.5
RISERVA 4.8
SWEEPING GLANCE 5.7
SISTER CONCERN 7.1
LADY ELAINE 12
SWEET NOBILITY 16
BLACK LIGHT DANCER 19
ONE MEAN QUEEN 30
MS. WILL A WAY 30
MISS LAKEFIELD 30
EXCELLENT CHARISMA 30

Guess I still don't know how to format; hope the data is clear.

[toetoe]

No beyers,

No names, but a certain online 'service' (hint: maybe you mentioned it; starts with a 'b') has ripped me off so persistently, on '$1' files, that I just pay for the print DRF now. After suspecting larceny (fraud, maybe?) I stayed away and, on Aug. 8 I bought ONE STINKIN' FILE! The credit card bill came, saying TEN DOLLARS! Sorry to unravel the thread.

[Overlay]

Really? So, you think Lady Elaine, who is making a trainer and rider switch from Deborah Bodner and Rudy Rodriguez to Dutrow and Prado, is 28-1 to win this race?

Can I get a little of that? Hell, I'll even settle for 20-1.

I gave Lady Elaine due credit for her connections, but didn't like the way she stacked up against the rest of the field in other areas, primarily class and condition (as I measure them).

[cj]

I avoid these races with a "super" trainer entering a horse under his name for the first time. All other handicapping, pace included, takes a back seat to this move. To ignore it would be foolish.

[keilan]

6th @ Belmont

2-April Tune (3-1)
11-Lady Elaine (7/2)
10-Miss Lakeford (4-1)
1-Sweeping Glance (6-1)
8-Black Light Dancer (10-1) should be along for a piece

[nobeyerspls]

Hoping for better than 7/2 on Lady Elaine.

Went to the war room and it was empty. Having lunch now and heading to the track. Good luck to all.

Note: My objective of learning more about pace handicapping wasn't met. CJ gave his reason for not posting. Perhaps others are avoiding the off track which is understandable. Were pace numbers assigned to these and have others computed them? Sorry if that's a dumb question.

[Light]

Bel 6th E2 horses Using Bris and selected paceline:

2 APRIL TRUE 105
9 SISTER CONC 91
11 LADY ELAINE 90
1 SWEEPING GL 89
4 SWEET NOBIL 88
7 ONE MEAN QU 87
8 BLACK LIGHT 84
3 EXCELLENT C 73
6 MS. WILL A 70
10 MISS LAKEFI 70

LP Horses

9 SISTER CONC 83
7 ONE MEAN QU 83
1 SWEEPING GL 81
10 MISS LAKEFI 80
8 BLACK LIGHT 79
2 APRIL TRUE 77
3 EXCELLENT C 75
11 LADY ELAINE 73
4 SWEET NOBIL 72
6 MS. WILL A 49

Contenders:

1 SWEEPING GL
2 APRIL TRUE
7 ONE MEAN QU
8 BLACK LIGHT
9 SISTER CONC
11 LADY ELAINE

[Light]

Forgot to post Quirrin style

2 APRIL TRUE E 7
4 SWEET NOBIL E 3
11 LADY ELAINE E 3
10 MISS LAKEFI E/P 2
9 SISTER CONC E/P 6
6 MS. WILL A P 0
8 BLACK LIGHT P 1
7 ONE MEAN QU P 3
1 SWEEPING GL S 0
3 EXCELLENT C S 0

April looks like a standout and I expect her to be favorite,but adding Lasix today is suspect.My guess is destroys field or gets destroyed.

[chickenhead]

Hoping for better than 7/2 on Lady Elaine.

Went to the war room and it was empty. Having lunch now and heading to the track. Good luck to all.

Note: My objective of learning more about pace handicapping wasn't met. CJ gave his reason for not posting. Perhaps others are avoiding the off track which is understandable. Were pace numbers assigned to these and have others computed them? Sorry if that's a dumb question.

This is a pretty unappetizing betting race, on an off track, with a throw away the form move-up trainer entry. I'm surprised you got the response you did. But I'll give you my two cents (that's about what it's worth).

2-11-1-9 is my order of contention...which happens to be about the same as the morning line. The 2 ran an 82 pace figure last out, about a 10 point gap to the next highest, and gets Lasix 1st time. Plenty to like there. The 11 has some solid early kick, and should be expected to move up. The 1 is a solid mover late and should run well against the pace though I expect the field to be a might strung out. I say the 9 wilts here but hangs for 4th.

The 5 would have made this race a bit more interesting.

[Tom]

Paying attention only to pace and using BRIS only, here is my take. I don't care who is training who - from a pace standpoint, this is how I see the race.


Belmont Race 6 - 7 furlongs Allowance, NW1X, NTSB Dirt



First thing I do is match up the early horses. BRIS sometime misses the running style designations, so always verify them. Using the BRIS PP Generator, I like to sort the PPs not by post, but by running style. The problem with a race like this is that theses are young, lightly races horses and running styles might not be set yet. Oh well, use what you have.



The Early horses –



Horse E1 E2

2 April 99 –110 103-105

4 Sweet 92* 95*

5 Riserva 92-96 93-104

11 Lady 88-91 90-92



2 April looks to have the lead without a lot of pressure. The other early horses are now non-contenders for the win in my book. Their best early pace numbers cannot compete with April and none look to ready to improve dramatically today.

Riserva might turn out to be a E/P horse – ran with the hot pace last time and faded, but in mud, and in first allowance race. Could come back better. I like the 7 furlong race with a 83 LP figure – while drawing clear of the field late. This guy might be very tough today. He lsot the pace duel and still beat a lot of horses in his last race. I like that.



The Early Pressers –



9 Sister

10 Miss L



Both of theses guys are in trouble – they like to run close when they run well and neither on an press the pace April will set. Add to that, the Early horses that cannot get the lead will be crowding out the early pressers, so a lot of horses will be racing outside their comfort zones today. Not good.

NoBeyer – BRIS pace numbers are equal to two points, so in the race 9 Sister won, she was pressing a pace of about 91 (her 88 plus 1.5 BL times2)



The Pressers –



6 Ms. W Back pace – several good LP numbers in sprints-fresh horse might

get into the exacta with this bunch.

7 One M Third off a freshener, had run against similar pace before

(April 13) and last – tandem race – had trouble in the mud

8 Black Second off a freshening, has run to today’s pace in his maiden win

and first allowance start. Prepped on turf and had gate trouble –

that last race is a throw out. Got a shot and I love 12-1. At 3-1, this

guy is out the door with his hat in hand.







The Closers –



1 Sweeping Two decent LP numbers, should be closing, but no threat to April

3 Excellent Throw out that 5.5 furlong race you have a harness horse.





April can set the pace and come in 76-77.

Riserva can stay close and can come home in 83 if she is and E/P and not an E

Sister looks better suited to 7 than 6 and can come home in 83, but home from where?

Might be too far back to get up in time.

Ms. W – not out of it

Black – at a price

Sweep – closing late, too far back, but exotic shot

Excellent – might finish close up – in the 7th race! LOL!



The bet will be determined by the odds, but I don’t see me betting anything to win other

than April, but not at a low price. There area negatives: Bounce candidate, stretching out to 7 with lower LP numbers than others.



See you in the WarRoom.

[Light]

With the exception of the probable fav April True,this race is a bad race to judge from a pace point of view.Let's say April True is not going to come back with a blazing E2 which I kind of lean to. Where's the pace? Most of these are 3YO's and are still maturing and changing their tactics. On paper,the rest are closely matched..So if April does not come away with the lone lead,the pace on paper could be misleading and I wouldn't rely on it for this kind of race.The other thing I don't like about April is she seems too obvious and obvious horses tend to lose.

[Jeff P]

Here's what I see...


Early Threat-
#2 APRIL TRUE has the E1 and E2 pace numbers to find herself all alone on an uncontested lead. Her 105 E2 (second call early pace figure) on Aug 28 and her 103 E2 on Mar 17 tower over this field. I'm guessing Migliore can get her to relax while on the lead. If so, look for her to improve today and handle both the off going and the added distance.

Race Shape-
#2 APRIL TRUE is an E7
9 SISTER CONCERN is an EP6

From what I see here, this is not a highly pressured race. SISTER CONCERN will probably back off conceding the lead to APRIL TRUE. There are two other E horses in this race but neither have the E1 or E2 numbers to really challenge APRIL TRUE for the lead.

Late Threat-
#1 SWEEPING GLANCE is in good form and ran an 89 LP on Jun 25. That should be competitive in here and I would not be surprised to see her come home full of run to complete the exacta.

Wild Cards-

Track Bias:
After seeing races 1-4, the outside posts seem to have a slight edge. APRIL TRUE and SWEEPING GLANCE have inside posts and will need to overcome a path bias if indeed there is one today.

Supertrainer?
#11 LADY ELAINE, as mentioned by others, is now under the care of Richard Dutrow. She has a pair of recent 5f bullet workouts. Her pace figures say she is in over her head today. Can Dutrow can get her to improve the 7 or 8 lengths she'll need to be competitive against this field? That's what makes this game so interesting.

My play?
I make APRIL TRUE to be about 3-1. As the morning line favorite, I doubt she'll go to post at anything over 5-2. If that's the case, no matter how much I like her, she won't offer any value in the win pool and I'll find myself passing. That's okay. I pass 80 percent of them.

-jp

.

[Fastracehorse]

" Also, I have done well with horses going slightly longer out of a race where they set a hotly contested pace and then quit. "

================================

How do you know it was a hotly contested pace??

Also, pace figures give you occasional advantages - sometimes mammoth ones - mammoth enough that you know you can't possibly live without them - not to say that you can't survive without them.

fffastt

[Light]

nobeyerspls

I hope this race answered your question as to how one would use pace figures. There can be no set way. Cause even though the favorite was much the best pacewise on paper,I didn't like her cause I didn't think she would repeat because most horses with that pattern don't.She lost by 10.You can't seperate pace from the overall pattern of the horse. However pace figures are helpful.Since I didn't like April I noted that the winner was second on my E2 list and first on my LP list.That seemed more potent.The only other horse to show up on both the E2 and LP list in the top 4 on both lists was the exacta horse. But I didn't bet the race cause I don't trust 3yo's.

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Fast

Three horses across the track vying for the lead is an example of a hotly contested pace. It's a visual thing.

I'm doing a tad better than surviving without pace figures.

[nobeyerspls]

Light

I don't get it yet. Of course I, and most others, handicapped for an off track. I watched the TV waiting for the rain to come and it didn't. The favorite wasn't playable at 7f on a dry track (if I recall, Capote is the broodmare sire and he is tops in producing offtrack runners). I ended up boxing the bottom three horses for a $1 in an exacta bet and lost six bucks. The #11 had no excuse and is probably one of those head cases that can drive an owner nuts.

Most posting on here were wrong about the early running order but I think that was due to the track condition. I'm going to try this again next week.

[Light]

What don't you get?

[the little guy]

Three horses across the track vying for the lead is an example of a hotly contested pace. It's a visual thing.

I'm doing a tad better than surviving without pace figures.So what is your point, is it to attempt to discredit people that do a serious study of pace, or is it to TELL us how well you do at the track?

You have told us in this thread that you have an obligation to share what you supposedly know. An obligation to whom? It seems, at least to me, that you have an obligation only to yourself, and that is to let us know how smart you think you are. Well, you may well know a lot about handicapping, and for all I know you not only lose less than takeout, but perhaps you even show a profit. So what.

The reality is that a serious mathematical study of both pace and final time can be a very effective aid to horseplaying. Now, obviously with the proliferation of accurate speed figures, be they Beyers, Ragozins, Thorographs or CJs, the usefullness of speed figures has been somewhat mitigated. However, to pooh-pooh there usefullness not only is insulting the intellectual aspect of these numbers, but it also displays an ignorance of their actual value. Just because YOU choose to ignore them doesn't give you the right to snub your nose at those that do.

Like you I place a great deal of importance on the " visual " aspect of the game, but to make a simple declaration like " Three horses across the track vying for the lead is an example of a hotly contested pace " hardly shows some great sense of enlightenment, especially while you are chuckling at those who do an actual ( and intelligent ) analysis of pace. The game would be very easy if situations like the one you described were a frequent occurance, but the reality of actual handicapping is often a horseplayer is faced with a number of possible speed horses, and accurate pace figures can go a long way towards accurately understanding how a race is going to be run. Will this always be the case? Of course not, but it will give that player an edge. So perhaps instead of mocking people who use pace figures, just because you admittedly don't understand them, yet oddly feel entitled to criticize them and their adherents, why not just say something to the effect of " they aren't my cup of tea " instead of issuing some sort of challenge.

Let me disarm you, as while I believe very strongly in the value of speed figures, they are a small part of my handicapping, and I think any player who uses them exclusively, and I highly doubt we have a lot of those players here, is fighting a losing battle in today's game. I also don't make pace figures, but unlike you I find even the idea of them fascinating, and have little doubt that accurate ones could really increase ANY smart players ROI. In fact, I believe there are a lot of effective handicapping tools that I don't use, or even understand, but while I'm happy to argue racing with people, I would never snub my nose at someone who uses something I don't understand. So let me ask you something....do you really understand speed figures? And, if you do, why don't you explain to us how they are made and why you believe they aren't an effective tool.

And by the way, don't come back with your usual " oh he's just from NY " line , because it's not relevant, nor is it an answer to my question.

[GameTheory]

I think what Mr. No Beyers is getting at is that he wishes to see an example of finding a winner through the use of figures that ONLY those with figures would be able to uncover. So someone please show him that...

[Light]

GT

If the example I gave of the $159.80 winner didn't make the case for a pace figure to find what conventional handicapping cannot, then I give up.

[turfbar]

Perfect thread ,man did I enjoy that
and believe me everything I do from here on out is all REDBOARDING
first I liked it because all the freakin "KNOW IT ALLS"
went down in flames made my day.
I didn't download Belmont yesterday because of all the scratches
and my sources for pace and speed #'s are different than BRIS, THANK BUDDHA
but coming from the Pizzaolla skool of handicapping you could have set the fulcrum pace from April which was 46.2 and glanced over the entrants and seen
only 2 horses meet that criteria and don't know what what the PBS # 's were,
but I see where the s/r of 77 of Sister was higher than than Aprils 73 s/r.

again this is all after the race was run.
Turfbar
P.S. after the race I saw Sister, did you see the shine and sheen of her coat
OY VEY just on looks alone she could have been bet, and I was watching on TV.

[nobeyerspls]

Light

I reread the posts from pace handicappers and did not understand how they are used. I think most saw the race as a pass so in that regard I agree with them. Are people trying to determine what one guy calls the "shape" of the race? The numbers for several in here were a few points apart. Is that like a race where beyer handicappers pass because the entrants have nearly the same figure?

Somebody had the eventual winner in trouble because she would be pressing the pace. Someone else had that horse closing "but from where". I often get the "shape" wrong, does that happen to pace handicappers?

I think I'm at fault here for selecting the race. Another poster said that these horses hadn't established pace tendencies so it was probably the wrong. I suggest that one or more among you select a race next Saturday that will provide a good example of handicapping with pace figures. We'll look at it between 10 and noon and maybe discuss it in the war room. I'll nominate CJ to select the race.

[keilan]

2-11-1-9 is my order of contention...which happens to be about the same as the morning line. The 2 ran an 82 pace figure last out, about a 10 point gap to the next highest, and gets Lasix 1st time. Plenty to like there. The 11 has some solid early kick, and should be expected to move up. The 1 is a solid mover late and should run well against the pace though I expect the field to be a might strung out. I say the 9 wilts here but hangs for 4th.


Order of finish 9-1-4-2 -- great call Chic, doesn't get much better than that. Most of us who capped the race early had the track rated good (heavier) and your comment on the 9 horse would have applied hadn't the track dried out over the 1st half of the card and been rated fast (zero adj)

[sjk]

On paper the 2 had an excellent chance to make a clear and easy lead which would have given her a strong winning chance. On that basis she was a deserving favorite.

These things are all a matter of probabilities and in the actual running of the race the 2 did not make a clear lead so her expected tactical advantage evaporated and gave the other two logical horses the 9 and 2 strong chances.

I played the 4 with the 2,9, and 1 since she was the obvious overlay but she was not good enough to get the win or place.

I thought everything happened in a logical way given the fact that the 2 did not run the races she could reasonably have been expected to run.

[keilan]

Pace players try to determine how faster or slower fractions impact the chances of each horse in the race. Example, a 6f race that is run in 21.2 – 44.1 – 1:09.3 or 22.2 – 45.0 – 1:09.3 – It’s quite possible that the winning horse is not the same in both contests.

The trick is evaluating “pace of the race” and accurately estimating how well each horse in the field performs based on today’s estimated pace.

Somehow while writing this I feel that you clearly understand everything I’ve written well before today. Just haven’t figured out your agenda yet so I and others have given you the benefit of doubt thus far. ;)

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Littleguy

My deepest apology for offending you. The answer I quoted was a sincere response to someone who asked how I could tell a hotly contested pace. He stated that one could barely survive without pace figures and my experience tells me something else.

Now, believe it or not, I'm really trying to learn how pace handicappers use pace figures. I am not "snubbing my nose" nor "mocking" anyone. So let's separate the issue of beyer figures, which I know a little about because I read the books, and pace figures. A good thread on here documented that a majority of winners had improved their beyers by an average of eight points. They further showed that the best last-race beyer lost most of the time, often as the favorite. I hold that beyer speed figures are not predictive and since my betting strategy is to bet a little to win a lot I use other handicapping techniques. If you look at the evolution of beyer speed figures, including the introduction of track pars and the practice of "adjusting" them, you'll see why many who use them say that they are just one of many tools.

Now back to pace figures, is it not true that unlike beyer numbers they are not published in the Form? That means that people who use them compute them. Apparently there are different figures for different parts of the race. It looks like most use them for sprints but I might be wrong about that. I know I could buy books on the subject but I'm looking for a short cut (still lazy after all these years). You might recall that I said I skip a lot of races because I find them too competitive. These are frequently open claiming races with older males sprinting. What if the use of pace figures helped me better handicap races I normally would skip? I might not have to use the all button in pick3's as much as I do.

I think GameTheory nailed it (see his post). So, I also apologize for picking the wrong race. Further, you can't hold the loss of the favorite against her as she didn't get the wet track she needed. So, let's do this again next week with me in the backseat. You and/or others can show how pace figures alone can identify a winner as GameTheory suggested. It just needs to be done before the race. I don't need Light's $159 winner, any winner north of 7/2 will suffice.

I was well into my fifties when I guy taught me about older males long to short so I am open to learning about pace handicapping using pace figures.

[nobeyerspls]

Turfbar

Nobody got it right because most handicapped for an off track. I expected the Ophelia rains (which were a no show) to produce tha slopy track that the favorite needed to win. I eneded up with no straight bets, just a simple $1 exacta box of the botom three horses. The nine ran and the other two didn't. No excuse.

Now, I am nominating you to pick a race next week that helps teach me how to use pace figures. One little difference though, you get to make your comments before the race.

[nobeyerspls]

Keilan

First of all, why did Chickenhead make a great call? He had the favorite on top and said the winner would wilt to 4th. Nobody on here said anything at all about the surface. I thought the #2 would catch the sloppy track she needed and most others handicapped for an off track as well. Certainly pace handicappers take track condition into account?

Lastly, in response to your other post, I know what pace handicappers are trying to do I just don't know how they use pace figures to do it. I have no agenda and would be most pleased if I learned something useful from this discourse. Apparently, 4/10ths of a second is a big deal. When we wanted to show a slower work with a horse we just made sure we drifted out a a little on the turn and then came back in. Easily, burnt up a second. So, I'm guessing that wide trips, head or tail wind, mild check, in or out moves, and a whole host of other things come into play when making these figures.

Honestly, just trying to learn. Keep in mind that my login name is not "nopacefigurespls".

[the little guy]

" Apparently, 4/10ths of a second is a big deal. "


It's close to two lengths. Let me ask you a question, since you apparantly are a big winner at the track, how many more millions would you ( or anyone here ) have made if they had been able to somehow purchase two lengths and add it incrimentally to their horses' respective finishes over time? If every time we lost by a nose or head we could just add some of that " two lengths " I think I can safely assure you none of us would ever have to consider any actual " employment ".

I didn't realize that there was anyone that didn't think 2/5 of a second was a big deal in racing.....but " apparently " I was wrong.

Oh, one more question, $20 says you were, at one time in your life, a camp counselor.

[Light]

nobeyerspls

Your repeating question:"I just don't know how they use pace figures "

My answer copied from post#10.Now if you stll don't "get it",refer to what is said below that you don't get.Cause I dont know too many angles that come up with $159.80 horses.

Well I'll tell you an interesting observation I've had with a unique twist on pace recently. 2 races at BM,with the same pace pattern resulted in a $32 winner and a $159.80 winner.How? read on.

BM Sept 3 race #7.Texas Toby. Route Race. Toby was routing for only the 2nd time in his life. His last race was his first route.I selected his race 2 back from a sprint. I use Bris. When compared to the rest of the field,the LP of Texas Toby from 2 back sprinting was the highest in the field by 5 points.Came flying late.$32.00 winner

BM Sept 11 Race #7 Marquee Affair.Route Race. This horse was off allmost 8 months and sprinted for his comebacker. Then Routed in his last race. I chose the better race just like with Toby,the 2 back sprint. Once again,you have a bomb with the highest LP in the field(by 3 points). Came flying late $159.80 winner.

The point is that pace pointed to the winner but it was prefaced but the horse's pattern or cycle.On top of that you have to select the proper race to consider for your pace figures.Without picking the proper race for pace,those horses would look like hopeless longshots.

[keilan]

Let me preface firstly that I have sworn off all races that are written for NY breds, admittedly I’m the worst for this type of race. So anyone who has the 4 contenders in this race that finish 1st -2nd and 4th gets props from plus I like the guy.

Regarding chic’s call on the 9 horse – well I can only base my opinion of whether it’s a good call or not viewed thru my own interpretation of the race. Regardless of which methods any of us use the 9 horse didn’t look to gain an uncontested lead and run gate to wire. I had the 2-9 and 11 ding-donging for the lead and gave almost no shot of the 9 horse surviving early contested fractions, the pace match-up didn’t develop { 22.70, 46.78, 1:11.89, 1:25.16 } and 9 wins for fun, hell the horse was up by 8 lengths in the stretch. Compound the change in track condition with the lack of early pace and Chic’s analysis would have been fairly accurate, because the race didn’t run as anticipated only changes the order of his contenders imo

[keilan]

[QUOTE=the little guy]" Apparently, 4/10ths of a second is a big deal. " /QUOTE]


My example is 8/10ths of a second.

[the little guy]

My example is 8/10ths of a second.Does that make it more or less meaningless?


I guess, at least in this case, it depends upon who you ask.

[keilan]

No argument here so far, my fractions were stated in 1/5ths vs.10ths is all. :)

[toetoe]

tee-ell-jee,
No need to get short with him. Naif that I am, I believe he's sincerely asking for help.

no-snub-beyers-please,
The Sheets take into account what you mentioned --- wind, ground lost, etc., and I bet cj does, also. Oh, and the only nose-snubbing allowed is to spite your face.

keilan,
You may want to make an exception at Belmont today. The NY-bred turf stake has my lock of the year. No, it's not NNY. Certifiably Crazy, which I considered as a screen name, won't be a longshot; maybe 2-to-1? But unless that alw. horse, Continental Reins, makes a big progression, which is possible, CC will win.

Light,
Late pace alone can't point you to probable winners. I think some of us agree that sometimes early pace can. He was still an overlay, but he needed some cooperation and a good trip, no?

[nobeyerspls]

Hi again little guy

I was merely pointing out that a lot can happen to make the trip from point A to point B in a race or workout slower by a fraction of a second. My 10-1 lock-of-the-day yesterday drifted wide (otherwise competent young jockey blew the turn) losing several lengths. Wound up third, 2 lengths behind the winner.

Never claimed to make a great deal of money at the track. My late mother told me at age 14 that nobody could beat the races. I took that as a challenge. First set a goal to be profitable. Then, $5,000 per year, then ten, and now twenty. I have failed for the last 4 years to make 20. I have two losing years over a long string but those were useful ego adjusters. Looks like I'll be in the black this year but I'm still under ten.

Was never a camp counsellor and didn't even get to go to camp. We were somewhat poor. I'll take the $20 in singles, it'll seem like more.

[the little guy]

Will the $20 put you over the top this year?

[nobeyerspls]

Light

Those are great examples and I'm most impressed but I think I'll learn more if I handicap a live race and compare my picks with those that use pace figures. I chose the wrong race yesterday and I think the track condition went against those that posted.

Perhaps you could pick a race next week that we all could use. I'm lousy at open claiming and even worse if they are older males sprinting. If pace handicapping works with these I would be more than impressed and ever grateful for letting me finally play pick3's with races like this in the sequence.

[nobeyerspls]

Only if I can use it to bet some of Light's $150 horses.

[Tom]

I did not consider track condition when I handicapped the race. I assumed a fast track and if it was other than fast when it came time to bet, my normal response would be to turn over to HRTV and play those tracks;)

Three things were conxern in that race - State breds (I hate them mor than Keilan does!, three year olds, fillies)
I even mentioned in my post that a concern I had was that the running styles were not set in stone and could change, which could drastically change the match up. Also, the favorite, lone speed prospect was a bounce candidate.
In the War Room, I fianlly decide on the 7 and 8 dutched because of thier odds
I would rather lose on 8-1 shot than 6- shots any day.
My purpose, I thought., was to demonstrate how some of us pace guys use page figs - that is what I did. I will use that same approach today, tomorrow, Tuesday.......it works about 30% of time, give or take a point or two. My analysis was correct, the horses were wrong!:lol:

[Light]

nobeyerspls

Since you don't use pace and I assume from your screen name,no Beyers,what method did you use when you made $20k in a year?And was that one big hit or a consistent grind?

[keilan]

keilan,
You may want to make an exception at Belmont today. The NY-bred turf stake has my lock of the year. No, it's not NNY. Certifiably Crazy, which I considered as a screen name, won't be a longshot; maybe 2-to-1? But unless that alw. horse, Continental Reins, makes a big progression, which is possible, CC will win.


Certifiably Crazy wins by 4+ lengths and pays $7.20 but how does any self respecting player wager on toetoe's lock of the year after watching him tout the likes of that "naughty newyorker" all year long?

Good call twinkle-toes, hope you played the x's as well :)

[Light]

Another jaw dropper for pace players at BM today. 8th race.Turf Route. #12 Power Star(my top pick) goes off as the longest shot in a field of 12 at 41-1. Just misses,beat by Baze(favorite).

I had this horse rated 3rd in LP.But that rating was from a race where he "steadied hard",which means his rank is even better without trouble. Now for the real jaw dropper.He is ranked #1 in Prime Power! Not that PP is pace but it confirmed that this guy is a legitamate contender,and the LP is for real.The icing was that this horse's last race was his first try on turf,was troubled,and still earned a competitive speed rating from the troubled trip, and his grandsire is Theatrical! O.K.There was more than pace that sold me on him,but the pace figure(LP) told me this horse could fire. I have to say that these Bris pace and speed figs have been working pretty well in spite of people discounting their accuracy.

[nobeyerspls]

Light

$20k became my new target several years ago after surpassing $10k. I have yet to reach it. I came close two years ago. Was up $16.5 when I returned to my winter home in Florida. Instead of winning the $3.5 I needed over the last three months, I lost $3,000.

My handicapping methods do not use figures of any type but I will look at the track variant as a clue to track surface. I am primarily a surface handicapper and I don't consider weights or jockeys. I build plays over seven reasons I have found to bet a horse (I've posted five on here and will complete them before the end of the month).

I do not grind it out and rely on several big days. My records show that for every three visits to the track I lose twice and win once. Exotics using live longshots are my strategy and I use both the vertical (exactas,tris) and horizontal (pick3's,win4's) versions. I am a solid handicapper and a somewhat weak money manager. Since I place equal weight on both disciplines that's not good. My greatest handicapping achievements frequently define my worst money management failures. I try to bet a little to win a lot. A typical straight bet for me is $6win and $3place and the exotics are usually the $1 version. A friend of mine told me to double my bets to reach the $20k level but I have resisted.

My first visit to the track was in 1956 at age 13 (saw Northern Dancer run as a 2yo and watched Neartic, his sire, run in the late Fifties). I have owned and bred horses but never trained. I believe that success at the track involves an aversion to gambling and requires the discipline to skip many more races than you bet and keep good records. Lastly I don't bet over the Internet, only at the track and I prefer live racing.

[toetoe]

Can you just let my 7-bucker be the jawdropper of this thread, thankyaverymuch?
Don't think my abysmal record doesn't cross my mind every time I consider throwing one out there. Of course, I played a pick-four, which paid well compared to the $488(!) pick-six. In order to bang it twice, I singled 1 in the 10th, 5 being my other horse, 4 having scratched. $64 for the pick-four, plenty of pocket lint for me, which I will advertise on ebay. You might say I've given up winners for Lint. Wha-wha-wha-whaaaaaaa .....

[delayjf]

If your looking for a straight forward example of pace handicapping.

Per CJ
8th at Delmar 26 Aug
#7 Danzonette scores at $45. Last race pace figure of 89, highest in the field, second best was 78 (four lengths difference.) The second highest ran second at 45-1, 500 + exacta.

[cato]

I don't want to get in a fight with anyone and I am a student of pace handicapping but Light's examples of LP winning races and delay's example of a high pace rated horse winning are not really examples of pace handicapping.
I probably have too wide a definition of pace handicapping but to me pace handicapping is our version of the theory of relativity. A high LP or a high pace rating, or speed number is meaningless unless you know the likely race shape, the E, P, S, etc horses, postion of the horses at first and second call, the likely 2d call etc.

What has amazed me in this thread and the other one I've read by nobeyers is that so many people seem offended that anyone would have the audacity to bet races without numbers--whether Byers or pace. It should be clear that there are many ways to approach handicapping--some numerical and some more visual.

In my own handicapping I am exploring these areas to see what sort of value they have.

The more I read a thread like this (which has been interesting) I see that we are more and more all drinking the same kool-aid, which is a clue to look elsewhere.

Cheers, Cato

[46zilzal]

there is no ONE WAY to do ANYTHING. LP= Late pace???

[46zilzal]

What has amazed me in this thread and the other one I've read by nobeyers is that so many people seem offended that anyone would have the audacity to bet races without numbers--whether Byers or pace. It should be clear that there are many ways to approach handicapping--some numerical and some more visual.


Brohamer gives many an example just based upon looking at racing style ) presser, S/P etc and caps without a single number sucessfully.

[chickenhead]

What has amazed me in this thread and the other one I've read by nobeyers is that so many people seem offended that anyone would have the audacity to bet races without numbers--whether Byers or pace.

Can you find me, I don't know, ONE example of this, please??

[Light]

Cato

I agree. I didn't mean to give the impression that you can just bet the highest LP and go to the bank. You may have missed my post #22 where I said"This 10 horse field had 4 "E" horses,and 2 "EP" horses. So this race set up well for closers. . My posting on this subject is not intended to be all encompassing regarding the subject of Pace. But for someone like Nobeyers who claims to know nothing about how to use pace figures,I think its a start.

[nobeyerspls]

Delayjf

Again, that's a truly impressive example but it doesn't help me. I'm looking for an example in real time. This Saturday someone among you, perhaps CJ, will pick one race at any track that best defines the use of pace figures in handicapping. Then several of you will give your perspective using that technique. I'll read and learn. Oh, and it doesn't have to involve a 45-1 winner, just 7/2 or higher.

[nobeyerspls]

Light

Is my claim of ignorance any stronger if I tell you that I don't know what "E" or "EP" are. If LP is late pace is EP early pace? I may be asking college professors to teach kindergarten.

[Light]

nobeyerspls

It's better that you ask basic questions than to have me or some other know it all talk over your head and you get nothing out of it. You need to read the article below before asking anymore questions because I have a feeling you havent understood anything I said(no offense).

In a nutshell here are the 4 running stlyle copied from this article:

http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=apr04tsn&header=off


Early (ESP “E”): The horse must have the lead.

Early Presser (ESP “EP”): The horse is comfortable on the lead or following the leader one to three lengths back.

Presser (ESP “P”): Prefers to run mid-pack, about four to seven lengths behind the leader.

Sustainer (ESP “S”): Prefers staying in the back of the pack in favor of a strong closing run.

[Light]

Dont confuse running styles (E,EP,P and S) with the pace calls for a horse which is given in 3 sections.

E1 - 1st Call. Rates how fast the horse ran from the Start to the 1st call ( 2F in sprints, 4F in routes).

E2 - Rates how fast the horse ran from the Start to the 2nd call (4F in sprints, 6F in most routes).

LP - Rates how fast the horse ran from the 2nd call to the Finish.

The figure earned in each of these 3 calls are the pace figures we have been talking about.Once you understand the basics of positional handicapping and pace handicapping,you will be able to understand the answer to your question. Otherwise no way Jose.

[cato]

Chicken: It was probably an overstatement. The posts that seemde to attach nobeyers were mostly from The Little Guy. But there were so many it seemed like a groundswell...

Cato

[chickenhead]

I think one or two posters recently have set the board up for the kind of negativity we've been seeing ("if you do x,y, or z, you're a moron" postings).

I think Nobeyers posts were fine, and if TLG over-reacted I'm guessing it was more in response to the general tone of other postings that have been happening, like you said, some things can seem like a groundswell.

Speaking for myself, since I rely heavily on figures and know (even if I haven't completely harnessed) their power, I have the utmost respect for anyone that wins without them.

[nobeyerspls]

Light

Thanks for that. I did something similar (without trying to quantify pace) when my local track had varying biases due to alternating harrowing depths. I kept track of Front, Middle, and Closing winners by noting the number of winners from each running style each day. When I later handicapped and noted that a closer ran poorly on a day favoring speed, I could play that horse if the bias shifted his way and there were several speed types in the race. This is a less scientific way of accounting for pace but the extra data collection paid off.

The figure assigned to pace calls doesn't seem to leave much room for error and must carry some subjectivity with it. I just returned from the track and a strong headwind had the 1st quarter in sprints going in 23 and change when these horses would typically run 22.1 or 22.2. I can think of a dozen other factors that could cause a fraction of a second difference but I won't list them here. In brief, the devil is in the detail as is usually the case.

[delayjf]

NOBEYERSPL

I offered that example only because it was about as straight forward as it pace handicapping can get. The high pace figure won. On a side note, what made this such an obvious play was the pace figure in relationship to the rest of the field. All this horse had to do to win was redistrubute his energy a bit to improve his final number, given the high pace fugure, this horse had plenty to spare against this field.

I don't think one race going to prove anything as to pace handicapping's effectiveness anymore than one race would validate the method you use. I would recommend using pace for at least one full season. I'd suggest reading Quinn Brohamer and Fotias if you want an idea on how to apply pace figures.
I don't think any method of handicapping applies all the time, rather one has to develop an intuitive feel for when this applies and when it doesn't. For me, it's all about price. If I see a high speed figure horse at 20-1 (like War Emblem) I'll bet it, likewise with a high pace fugure horse as in the race I mentioned.

[nobeyerspls]

delayjf

The pace handicappers might not get the race right but at least I'll see how they use pace figures to handicap. If I'm lucky, they'll pick an open claiming race with a large field. If you made me bet this category I couldn't afford busfare to the poorhouse.

Most of us bet more losers than winners so they should think about displaying the applied theory of pace handicapping and not worry about the outcome. Hey, with 45-1 horses you can lose and then have 44 chances to break even!

[Fastracehorse]

You said that you visually inspect pace. Isn't that a formulation of pace??

That was my point: That you do use pace.

A pace figure is a finite measurement that's all.

And I didn't mean that you just survived at the track :)

fffastt

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Fast

You can't be into this game very long without taking pace into account. My lack of knowledge (see other posts) is in the quantifying of them. I was at the track yesterday and found a horse that leads to this question about class and speed.
She came off a failed turf event to beat bottom level claimers on the dirt in fast time (22.1 45.2 1:10.1). In the very next race that day open claiming males ran 6f in identical final time with only slightly different fractions.
Two weeks later this filly moved two levels up in class and was off the board (beat 6 lengths) in a race with similar fractions that went in 1:10.3. Yesterday she dropped back to the winning level in a 5f race and won in 59.2 (note that times were slightly slower yesterday due to a strong head wind). The track variants were similar for all the races.

My question is "How do speed figures or pace figures take this into account"? I doubt if anyone would think that this filly would hit the board if she ever met those boys even though the races were 25 minutes apart and all the times were the same.

[cj]

Which race and which track? I'll be happy to post my numbers for the race and horse. Raw times mean very little most times.

[andicap]

what track and race was this?

[nobeyerspls]

cj and andicap

The track was Fort Erie.

[Red Knave]

7th Race
#1 Diamond Heirloom, $4.50 $4.30 $2.90

[TurfRuler]

What is the form cycle? The Woodbine race showed what pace figures can show, also actual times...even if it's the favorite at a new track, trained by a super trainer, ridden by a high percentage jockey, in a foreign country on or off the turf, soft, heavy or firm.

Sunday at Woodbine, the Bobby Frankel-trained Leroidesanimaux won his eighth consecutive race, taking the $1 million Atto Mile under jockey John Velazquez

[Light]

Bounce

[cj]

I posted here (http://www.pacefigures.com/fe_050920)

I haven't even looked at it, I don't play Fort Erie ever, not available where I bet.

[46zilzal]

What is the form cycle?

Great book Thoroughbred Cycles by Mark Cramer will tell you all about it.

[46zilzal]

My question is "How do speed figures or pace figures take this into account"? I doubt if anyone would think that this filly would hit the board if she ever met those boys even though the races were 25 minutes apart and all the times were the same.
They don't. There are MANY MANY variables at work, pace is only ONE of them.


I have ALL the cards from the Fort. What was this fillies name???

[Red Knave]

I have ALL the cards from the Fort. What was this fillies name???
---------------------------------------------------
7th Race
#1 Diamond Heirloom, $4.50 $4.30 $2.90

[46zilzal]

what day did she run the first time???

[46zilzal]

Early (ESP “E”): The horse must have the lead.

Early Presser (ESP “EP”): The horse is comfortable on the lead or following the leader one to three lengths back.

Presser (ESP “P”): Prefers to run mid-pack, about four to seven lengths behind the leader.

Sustainer (ESP “S”): Prefers staying in the back of the pack in favor of a strong closing run.


MANY Horses go WIRE to WIRE on the lead as sustained/pressers everyday at at every race track

[chickenhead]

My question is "How do speed figures or pace figures take this into account"? I doubt if anyone would think that this filly would hit the board if she ever met those boys even though the races were 25 minutes apart and all the times were the same.

Since no one answered this yet, I will. They don't take it into account. Speed figures tell you how fast the final time was...pace figures tell you how fast the pace was. That's it. You still have to handicap.

Without having any data on the males I can't say what I would think her chances were..but could this filly on her best day beat a weak bunch of males? Of course she could. Would I project her to be at her very best against a bunch of males? No, probably not...but put her in against a slow enough bunch with healthy odds and I'd bet her with both hands.

[46zilzal]

Diamond Heirloom (based upon Sartin programs) was by far the best in the 7th based upon it's second line back. Nags, unlike the NASCAR autos, are subject to variation. I always look at the past performances as a overall guide.


Personally, I do not look at times in ANY OTHER races of the day. Akin to the old Heraticlus (spelling) "you can never stand in the same river twice," the OTHER races in the day are EACH exclusive unto themselves and, pace wise, and have very little to do with each other. This is where the fallacy of the database gets exposed: each race is an exclusive interaction, NEVER TO HAPPEN AGAIN (with those horses, on that race track, with the influence of the riders THAT DAY, and their state of from cycle THAT day)

[turfbar]

Here are pace/speed figs from Handicappers Daily (Pizzoala)

only posting horses Post not names but the winner is #1 Diamond Hierloom
and thier figs from last 2 pacelines

1).90 79
88 86
2).87 83
90 73
3).90 81
81 80
4).87 77
91 78
5).86 81
78 81
6).76 84
84 83
7).88 78
85 81
8).83 77
86 74
this race is almost perfect template of the use of pace figs
long story short the winner who owns the best(although tied)
fig 90 is dropping from a higher clming race DUH ---does it get any easier than that?
Turfbar
p.s. read Nick Borg "Speed and Drop"

[TurfRuler]

Great book Thoroughbred Cycles by Mark Cramer will tell you all about it.

Thanks for the title. I need to build a new library with every book that I have read in the past (lost in transitions). Right now I need to get one on figuring speed figures, I'm rusty. For the upcoming Hollywood Park meet and the Churchill Downs meet I have the times and conditions from all the races run at their last meeting and want to compile figures to try to get an edge.

[Lefty]

nobeyer, wanna compute pace figs? Get Brohamer's book, MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING and the Sartin, Schmidt, Hambelton book: PACE MAKES THE RACE and you can compute your own numbers all day long.

[nobeyerspls]

turfbar

This race didn't need a lot of analysis to find this 6/5 winner. My question was about her running up the track in a claiming $11.5k race that went in 1:10.3 after winning a claiming $4.5k race in 1:10.1. The race right after the aforementioned race was a claiming $18k race for males that went went in the same time with basically the same fractions.

I'm curious about the computation and application of pace figures across gender.

[nobeyerspls]

Lefty

Thanks for the tip. I'm trying to learn this without doing much work but I might have to resort to reading the books. My curiosity is piqued at how they do the number for the first call in sprints. They will account for veered in, pinched back, bore out, hopped at start, brushed, broke in a tangle, slammed, reared, outside to rail, head wind, cross wind, tail wind, checked, drying track, and some others when I think of them. I'm guessing that they don't do anything for "dwelt" as that says it all.

[Red Knave]

My question was about her running up the track in a claiming $11.5k race that went in 1:10.3 after winning a claiming $4.5k race in 1:10.1. ... basically the same fractions.

Okay, since nobody else has waded in here, I'll point out a few things that may help illuminate (or obfuscate) how pace ratings are calculated.
Here is a primary pace fact : The faster a horse runs early, the slower it runs late.

Following are some calculations that evolved from the writings of Jim Bradshaw (aka the Hat) whom all Sartin devotees will remember. The way I do this is, I think, slightly different than his, but will give you the idea none the less.
Diamond Heirloom's last 2 races look like this (times in seconds and hundredths)

time _len _time _len _time _len
22.43 2.00 45.45 1.50 70.71 6.50 last race
22.75 3.00 45.49 3.00 70.35 0.00 second last race
---------------------------------------------
(.32)(1.00)(.04)(1.50) 0.36 6.50 <-- difference in times and lengths back

So, the quarter in the last race was .32 faster and she was 1.00 length closer, the half was .04 faster and she was 1.5 lengths closer and the finish was .36 slower and she was 6.5 lengths slower. Let's say, for the sake of this discussion, that 1 hundredth of a second faster at the quarter causes 2 hundredths lost at the finish and that 1 hundredth extra at the half means 1.5 hundredths lost at the finish. I don't really care if you believe these numbers or not (you can calculate your own) but I believe they are reasonable. Also assume that 1 length is the equivalent of 20 hundredths (i.e. 1/5 second). Using these parameters Diamond Heirloom's last race was (.32 + (1 * .20)) .52 faster to the quarter, (.04 + (1.5 * .20)) .34 faster to the half and (.36 + (6.5 * .2)) 1.66 slower at the finish. Using the deceleration rates above we might predict - (2 * .52) + (1.5 * .34) = 1.55 seconds slower versus a real difference of 1.66. Pretty close even considering they were on different race tracks and not adjusted for variant.

Now, what do we expect the quarter and half to be in the Sep 20th race (i.e. what will be the 'pace') and how will Diamond Heirloom react ?
Your job as a pace handicapper is to determine ahead of time what the likely scenario will be and whether or not your contender can win based on the pace numbers that you forecast.

[nobeyerspls]

Red Knave

Thanks for that most helpful post and the time it took to put it together. Joe Passero put in a new dirt track at Fort Erie this year and it is superb. That might account for bottom claimers running that fast. Since 1/100ths of seconds are involved I'm guessing that the challenge for those that compute pace figures is to account for them. I don't think I could try without a head-on replay of a race.

[andicap]

NoBeyer,
Did you get the PM I sent this morning? Tried to show you how I use pace to handicap that FE race --

[Lefty]

nobeyers, Pace Makes The Race starts it's Pace at the 2nd call. Pincay once said, "The first Fraction belongs to the horse."
If you want to do the first call and there's trble then just look at another paceline. Modern Pace Handicapping shows you how to compute feet per second ratings for 1st call as well as 2nd. But nowhere is it written you have to use the last paceline only.

[Fastracehorse]

"My question is "How do speed figures or pace figures take this into account"? I doubt if anyone would think that this filly would hit the board if she ever met those boys even though the races were 25 minutes apart and all the times were the same."

=================================

My 'minute rice' explanation is that I believe horses run inconsistently over a season. That is, trainers may pointing to specific races, etc..

fffastt

[Red Knave]

Tried to show you how I use pace to handicap that FE race --
Andy, I know I, for one, would like to see that also. Either here or a PM.
On the other hand, I know you are a degenerate because you bet horses at Evangeline and Retama late into the night ( :D:D )
Sorry you couldn't stay longer in 'Toga.

[nobeyerspls]

Lefty

My friends and I discuss the dynamics of a race before thay go to post and congratulate each other when we get the early, late, and final running order correct. However, we are more than just puzzled when the horses don't follow our script.

I do well with nw2 lifetime and my approach is simple. I go back to the horses maiden win to see the class, distance, and track for the win. I then determine if her running style and current condition fit this race. I found a freshened filly at 18-1 who had won on the lead in decent time and noted that there wasn't much early speed in the race. She broke 9th in this eleven horse field and was 2nd last to the turn at which time she began running. Passed several horse late ending up 5th and still running hard past the wire.

Maybe the trainer gave instructions to stay back early or maybe the jockey didn't warm her up enough. If I mostly bet young horses moving through their conditions, will pace handicapping help? Somebody on here avoids races where pace tendencies have not been established.

[nobeyerspls]

andicap

Sorry, I must have deleted it. Since announcing that I'm leaving here on Sunday I've been deleting all personal messages.

[Lefty]

nobeyers, I think it will help, but not every race has a clearly defined pace scenario or a lot of time the ratings are close. I skip a lot of races. Only thing I can tell you, is work with some pace numbers and see if it helps. Nothing like experience.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll never, ever, understand the concept of "leaving" an internet message board.

As if the place is so totally useless, you'll never EVER click on it again to read what might be posted.

Plus, I'll really NEVER understand the need to announce that you are leaving....isn't that a bit arrogant?

[Speed Figure]

Plus, I'll really NEVER understand the need to announce that you are leaving....isn't that a bit arrogant?
Yes, it is. I guess we should say please don't go. :rolleyes:

[Vegas711]

I'll never, ever, understand the concept of "leaving" an internet message board.

As if the place is so totally useless, you'll never EVER click on it again to read what might be posted.

Plus, I'll really NEVER understand the need to announce that you are leaving....isn't that a bit arrogant?

If everyone left who would you have to talk too?:lol:

Maybe, he will just come back with a new identity and a fresh start.How would anyone know?

[GameTheory]

I'll never, ever, understand the concept of "leaving" an internet message board.Never EVER?

[PaceAdvantage]

You're right....I was being overly dramatic....LOL

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Paceadvantage

First a guy with 49 years experience giving advice to a newbie is arrogant and now advising old acquaintances that you're leaving instead of just disappearing is arrogant.

I've only been on here two months but I go back much further with Twindouble and Fastracehorse on another board. Fast was the first guy I ever posted a horse to and it won paying over $100. Not arrogant, not a martyr, just being polite.

[keilan]

Hiya Paceadvantage

First a guy with 49 years experience giving advice to a newbie is arrogant and now advising old acquaintances that you're leaving instead of just disappearing is arrogant.

I've only been on here two months but I go back much further with Twindouble and Fastracehorse on another board. Fast was the first guy I ever posted a horse to and it won paying over $100. Not arrogant, not a martyr, just being polite.


nobeyers -- PM them and spare the rest of us the dramatics

[chickenhead]

Everyone seems a bit broke up about nobeyers leaving...just wanted to offer up that I'm never leaving. Ever. I promise.

So you can all, you know, take solace in that.

[keilan]

Chic - you meant "never, ever" right

[Tom]

I am happy to announce I am not going anywhere! :cool:

[46zilzal]

To the folks who NEVER consider a re-evalution of their position on things racing:

"Well I've been going to the track 30 years!"

"No," I answer, "you've just gone to the track ONE year, but just repeated it 30 times."

[Vegas711]

I am happy to announce I am not going anywhere! :cool:

There is a rumor that PA may be trading you to the Minnesota Vikings for a couple of draft picks.:D

[andicap]

I thought I'd announce that I'm going to bed now.