How Do You Figure This?

[toetoe]

At Mnr. tonight, the 'inside' speed is going in the 6- or 7-path, literally. I started thinking. How do you get a figure, just watch the race and subtract 2 lengths per path, per turn? In the pp's, the fractions and final times must come up WAY slow. Anybody dealt with this? I can't believe they're this wide very often. You can't even say, "Bad rail" tonight, because EVERYBODY is 6-wide and out.

[Tom]

At FL a few years ago, we had a very wet summer and the inside was just quicksand. The riders were literally on the near rail in the stretch after coming in 15-20 wide.

Times were unbelievable.

I asked one of the riders why they were going so wide and he said- "Rail stop you dead. Then trainer kill me!"

[twindouble]

At Mnr. tonight, the 'inside' speed is going in the 6- or 7-path, literally. I started thinking. How do you get a figure, just watch the race and subtract 2 lengths per path, per turn? In the pp's, the fractions and final times must come up WAY slow. Anybody dealt with this? I can't believe they're this wide very often. You can't even say, "Bad rail" tonight, because EVERYBODY is 6-wide and out.

toetoe, when I first started playing Mnr I was scratching my head as well, inside speed getting clear and electing to get to the outside, ESP entering the stretch. I came to the conclusion in sprints ESP the jocks know when the rail is dead because other times it's 1 through 4 path, it's hit and miss tring to figure it out. For example, in the 6th yesterday I caught a nice ex in a very contested race 4, 2 path then 1,2,3 path the last 1/16 or less going 5 1/2, finished 5,6,3 first and second almost a triple dead heat.

Over all if I can put outside horses as contenders in the race, I lean that way and it pays off, regardless of the distance. A better % of time it's the same thing, 4 through 7 paths unless the winner stole the race and was home free. It's good idea to pay attention to post postion at Mnr in the PP's plus that first call, if the horse can't get clear sprinting the outside is boss and you don't have to be right all the time as you know at that track. Mnr can be a roller coaster ride handicapping but I like the fact that there's not much that seperates most of the horses so value is there. You just have to figure who's going to be where in the race the best you can and go from there. Finish times almost become secondary in most cases it's how that race shapes up in your mind. I handicap a mile race there like I do any other sprint race, it's not to often I see speed horses on the rail entering the stretch hang on going further, unless they just out classed the field and that happens once in a while but norm no value. Keep in mind we are just talking about the rail, outside horses and post position and distance, all the other factors do come into play.

I would pass out if anyone to come up with figures you can rely on when it comes to Mnr, I might even toss my racing form. :eek:

[toetoe]

Twin,
Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could do it that way all the time? The preoccupation with fractions, final times, Beyers, etc. can consume a handy-crapper.

[Vegas711]

A friend of mine owns horses at that track. His trainer ( baird) says that mnr has the strongest swing in bias that he has ever seen. The track maintenance people are constantly screwing with it. They add and they subtract constantly.Sometimes the outside will be like a paved road. If you are going to use figures you are in for a battle.There are no set guidlines just trial and error.

This track is best played in my opinion paying less attention to final times and more on running style matchups... Wait till dec when horses that run 112 can no longer break a 115. :bang:

[twindouble]

Twin,
Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could do it that way all the time? The preoccupation with fractions, final times, Beyers, etc. can consume a handy-crapper.:D

toetoe, it's beyond me what these modern day handicappers are doing, to me the essence of racing is being at the track following the horses, getting to know the track and all that's related. I just can't invision myself spending countless hr's crunching numbers and building a library of stats. This is the age of information and I can understand their desire and challenge to do it, have to give them credit for the attempt but I have no idea how successful any of it is or has been. cj's figures seem to be getting a lot of attention here, what the result will be over the long haul is yet to be answered, whereas I know the above works and it's more enjoyable, ESP if you have a track close by.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's beyond me how some folks can pass judgement and come to conclusions on methods and procedures that they themselves have never even attempted to use.

I find cashing tickets most enjoyable. Being at the track is an added bonus, but not necessary.

[Tom]

Mu interst in racing exploded when I stopped going to the track.

I would rather have a root canal than go to the track!

At home, I have all my data at my fingertips, two TV channels plus Youbet and BrisBet and Penn all showing races - I can look at over a hundred races and pick out 10 I really like with good odds.
And the hot dogs don't have whip marks on them!

[twindouble]

It's beyond me how some folks can pass judgement and come to conclusions on methods and procedures that they themselves have never even attempted to use.

I find cashing tickets most enjoyable. Being at the track is an added bonus, but not necessary.

Pace, being skeptical isn't passing judgement or drawing conclusions, at this point that's where I'm coming from. When I said it's not all about cashing a ticket, I was surley talking about having the winner. I do give credit and apperciate any jock who gives the wagering public and excellent ride, like I said, it's great thing to watch. I love this game and you'll just have to give me some leeway, it's inportant for me to hang on to my triditional feelings and thoughts about it.

Good luck,

T.D.

[midnight]

I would rather have a root canal than go to the track!


Tom: does that have to do with the track you went to (FL)?

I quit betting FL when I saw a steady parade of horses run against their abilities ---- and worse, against their running style. They should station one of those fake birthday cakes, the kind that go-go girls pop out of, in the grandstand area near the finish line. Then when the latest S-8 horse wires the field and wins by 10 lengths, the cake can pop open, and a jockey can poke his head out, stick his thumbs in his ears, wiggle his fingers, and shout "Surprise!".