NFL week 2

[Valuist]

I like handicapping the NFL early in the week. I bet early when I can, to try to beat the line moves. Three so far but there will be more. 4-1 ATS in week 1.

San Diego +3 over DENVER- I didn't like what I saw out of Denver last week; SD wasn't great but probably should've won. I give SD the edge in the passing game, the running game and stopping the run. Denver has the edge in pass D but they have injuries in their secondary. Last year SD held Denv to 74 and 37 rush yards in the 2 games.

ARIZONA pick over St. Louis- Taking a hated public team over a very overrated public team. The Rams haven't been good for awhile yet the public and media still think they're the "greatest show on turf"....not. Last year when these two teams played, Arizona just destroyed them 31-7 w/the only StL TD on a fumble return. The one time Arizona has a legit home field advantage is early in the year, when its hotter than hell in Phoenix. Should be about 100 degrees at gametime.

KC/OAK OVER 53--2 big offenses, 2 bad defenses. I'm not buying into the Chiefs D just yet. Last year these two put up 61 pts in each game. And Priest Holmes didn't play in either one; neither did Randy Moss.

[toetoe]

Arizona are getting no points? Darn, if I don't like the Rams, maybe no bet.

[kingfin66]

I was also thinking that the NE vs. Car game would be a good over.

[Valuist]

Toetoe-

I have no problem w/no points and Arizona. The Rams are not only not a good team on the road, they are not an average team. They are a POOR team on the road, and not surprisingly, the public was all over them last week, taking the line from St. L -2.5 all the way to -5.5, right thru the key numbers of 3 and 4. That's a massive move, and needless to say, the books were right and the public was wrong.

As for the NE/Caro game, I probably will pass but I lean slightly to Carolina if I were to make a play. Not sure yet on the total.

[BetHorses!]

Val,

Were you one of those guys who always did your homework early? I did not cause I was busy reading a Form. Anyway, your "early" picks seem to be going your way, I see Arizona minus 1 and the KC/OAK total is at 53 1/2 and even see a few 2 1/2's around on San Diego...good job.


My observations from week 1 is there are some bad teams out there-Green Bay, Arizona, Rams, Tenn, Oak, Wash and da Bears. These are teams I want to bet against right now. I do like your argument for betting on AZ this week though!

My early pick now is the TEXANS +6. Don't think they're as bad as they played last week at Buf.

[Valuist]

BH-

No way. The only homework I like doing early is racing and the NFL. I do like to focus on the games with the key numbers, like the 3 point spreads and the 41 or 37 totals. I haven't bet the GB/Cleve total yet which opened at 42 and has crossed down to 40 1/2 in some places. I feel its an overreaction to the Packers poor play in week 1 and Javon Walker being hurt. I'm looking to go over there. I probably would settle for 40 1/2; 41 is the biggest key total number so that's a big 1/2 point.

Maybe I'm a homer but I'd be careful fading the Bears. They will lose their share of games but the defense is capable of making big plays and keeping them in games. They did cover in week 1 and had a legitimate shot at winning; 3 offsides penalties and a QB sack ended the drive but they did have a shot at the win on the road.

[Valuist]

That Green Bay/Cleveland total did hit 40 and I am on the over. I would not be surprised to see it creep back toward 41. Those half points and 1 point advantages in your favor add up at the end of the year. With totals, we always want to be on the right side of 41 and 37.

[headhawg]

I like these for this week, barring any major changes:

Arizona pick 'em over St. Louis -- Agree with Valuist on this one

Chicago +1.5 over Detroit -- Bears were a great play last week getting 6 points. I like them again here. Detroit beat a bad Green Bay team, and they have Joey Harrington who still hasn't shown me anything. He should be good for a couple of turnovers against a top 5 defense.

Kansas City -1.5 over Oakland -- Oakland has an erratic Collins at QB and a weak O-Line.

Tennessee +3.5 over Baltimore -- Boller is no prize, but Anthony Wright? Admittedly, Ten looked bad last week against Pittsburgh, but I expect a big improvement at home. They might lose the game, but I think it'll be by a field goal or less.

Good luck.

[BetHorses!]

BH-

Maybe I'm a homer but I'd be careful fading the Bears. They will lose their share of games but the defense is capable of making big plays and keeping them in games. They did cover in week 1 and had a legitimate shot at winning; 3 offsides penalties and a QB sack ended the drive but they did have a shot at the win on the road.


I loved them lask week and picked them here in my week 1 thread getting 6 as my line made them a small favorite believe it or not. But if I had to bet the Game this week, I would bet the Lions -1.

[Valuist]

Adding two more: Bears +1 and Panthers +3

The Lions maybe won in week 1 but I wasn't at all impressed by their offense against a weak GB defense. They go on the road, switch surfaces and face a much tougher defense this week. And while injuries are often overbet, in a game where there figures to be few points, kicker Jason Hanson is far from 100% for the Lions.

As for the Panthers, everyone knows the importance of home games. They had the misfortune of getting an emotionally charged New Orleans team in week 1 and now get the defending SB champs, who they covered against in that Super Bowl. I thought Oakland played NE very tough on opening night and barring stupid mistakes (penalties and Janikowski) should've been much closer than the 10 pt final. This is a must win for Carolina; not really so for the Patriots.

[BetHorses!]

I have this friend who is a total square and he loses every year. He bets between 100 and 500 per game and a 1000 on the Super Bowl. If you don't bet much sports you could just make money fading this guy.

His bet this week Patriots -3 200 :)

[Valuist]

Bet Horses-

Funny thing last year; the squares beat the wise guys. It doesn't happen often but the squares just kept betting New England, Indy, Philly and Pittsburgh and kept winning. My theory is that last year we saw a move away from parity. Parity was so big in the NFL for about 6-8 years that we came to expect the unexpected. My guess is that it will probably return but in the meantime I'm not going to fade Indy or Philly. And I won't fade NE very often but I'm doing it this week.

[BetHorses!]

Val,

I know and no teasers busted either. I agree with the parity theory but in conjunction with the fact they don't make a good line anymore.

My friend still lost last season though lol He went on a roll betting 2's and 3's then got rocked betting 5's and 10's

[yak merchant]

Playing these.

Tenn +3.5
Houston/Pitt Over 37.5
TB/Buff Under 34.5
Minn +3

[yak merchant]

Minny play was awesome.

I suck at NFL

Sea -1.5
Ari -1.5
Den -3
Gb -6

[headhawg]

I like these for this week, barring any major changes:

Arizona pick 'em over St. Louis -- Agree with Valuist on this one

Chicago +1.5 over Detroit -- Bears were a great play last week getting 6 points. I like them again here. Detroit beat a bad Green Bay team, and they have Joey Harrington who still hasn't shown me anything. He should be good for a couple of turnovers against a top 5 defense.

Kansas City -1.5 over Oakland -- Oakland has an erratic Collins at QB and a weak O-Line.

Tennessee +3.5 over Baltimore -- Boller is no prize, but Anthony Wright? Admittedly, Ten looked bad last week against Pittsburgh, but I expect a big improvement at home. They might lose the game, but I think it'll be by a field goal or less.

Good luck.

3 out of 4 this week. Arizona is going to be hard to figure this year, so probably not going to play any games that involve them.

[Valuist]

3-2-1 on the week. Wins on Da Bearzzz, Carolina, GB/Cleve over. Pushed on the Chargers. A couple tough beats on Arizona and the Oak/KC over. Tough beat on the Oak total? It went under by 13 pts. However, the officials took away not one, not two, BUT 3 TDs due to penalties. The pass interference call on Moss was horrifically bad. If anything he was getting pushed. As for Arizona they were deep in the red zone when a penalty forced a runoff of 10 seconds which ended the game. No guarantee they would've gotten it but what a $hitty way to end the game.

[BetHorses!]

Nice call on Da Bearzzz. The Chargers Push was tough also. My square friend loses again.

Looking forward to your early Week 3 write up.

[Valuist]

I didn't get a chance to do any football capping last night. Was watching the Raiders/Chiefs and playing a few Hoosier races. My early leans are Bears/Bengals under 40 and possibly Indy -13.5. I really don't like laying more than a TD in the NFL but when a weak team (i.e. Cleveland) gets a win then has to hit the road against a top class team (i.e. Indy) it usually gets pummeled (see San Fran at Philly this past week). But its also possible that Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as SF, and Indy's offense does not look like the Indy offense we've seen over the past few years.

[Secretariat]

Exciting ending to the Skins and Cowboys game. Always fun to see Dallas lose.