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John
06-03-2002, 11:23 AM
My data base friends.

Thumbing through some results. I noticed quite a few horses that finished 1st 2nd or 3nd . all had the same common factor. Horse finished within one length of the winner. Some were droping down and paid nothing. Some were going up in class and paid well. Others stayed at the same level and paid so so.

Anyone with a data base. Can you please come up with a long tern statistic on how horses finished in next race after finishing within one length in last race.

I would appreciate it...Thank you
Que
06-03-2002, 04:59 PM
Below are stats for horses that finished within one length of the winner in their last race. (Note. The stats are for 1/1/00 to 12/31/01, and only include races at 5 furlongs or better.)


ROI Count
0.763 44268

Increase In purse Value from last Race
ROI Count
0.751 19151

Same purse Value as last Race
ROI Count
0.770 16039

Decrease In purse Value from last Race
ROI Count
0.776 9078



The following is for the same group of horses (i.e that finished within one length of the winner); and is broken out by lengths gained/lost between the second call and the finish in their previous race:

ROI Count Gain
0.695 962 n/a
0.789 12619 -1
0.827 6099 0
0.779 5580 1
0.747 4307 2
0.793 3354 3
0.749 2872 4
0.747 2194 5
0.667 1737 6
0.640 1306 7
0.628 954 8
0.735 707 9
0.670 504 10
0.544 326 11
0.641 218 12
0.503 172 13
0.716 107 14
0.863 85 15
0.766 58 16
0.500 37 17
0.000 22 18
1.222 18 19
0.353 13 20


Good luck in your search...

Que.
John
06-03-2002, 05:38 PM
Que,

Thank you. your report will be very useful. One Question" does your report include TURF races too.

Thanks again
Que
06-03-2002, 08:21 PM
Yes it did include turf races... the only limiting factor I used was the distance (to exclude quarter horse races).
John
06-03-2002, 09:40 PM
Hi Que,

Excuse me. Am I reading the "ROI" right.

Same purse Value as last Race
ROI Count
0.770 16039

Is that + 0. 77 per $1.00 ? Please explain to me.

Thank you.
GameTheory
06-04-2002, 12:21 AM
No, it can't be.

It 77 cents back for every dollar bet, or -23%...
John
06-04-2002, 11:52 AM
G.T

Thanks, I thought I was wrong. My sample workout breaks even when some rules are applied.
Que
06-04-2002, 03:59 PM
Sorry, I should have posted that the ROI was for each $1 wagered--therefore an ROI of 1.00 is breakeven.
John
06-04-2002, 05:35 PM
Thanks Que, nice of you to answer.
LoganDimes
06-05-2002, 12:10 PM
How does one get a hold of a database with such information?