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OTM Al
09-12-2005, 12:56 PM
So much for the pundits that were predicting him to win the BC Classic

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=29970

lsbets
09-12-2005, 01:15 PM
I hate to say this, but the Classic is shaping up to be a race of who cares. The top 3 YOs - out, the top older horses - retired. Second string for the Classic this year.

OTM Al
09-12-2005, 01:20 PM
Hey.....Funny Cide's got a shot!!!!!! :)

kev
09-12-2005, 01:28 PM
Oh I guess Nick Z. can put in Comm. now, unless there's going to any other speed horses, don't want that to happen again. ;)

Suff
09-12-2005, 01:56 PM
on the face of it, it seems like a good move.


How many times have we seen a superior 2YO come back for his 3YO campaign, run a couple of poor races, and 6 months later he's in for 25 Grand at Delaware park. There are 4Yo colts running for 12,500 at Suffolk Downs that sold for 1.3 million just 2 years before.

It is all about the legs. A colt runs great at 2 or 3, then puts on 400 pounds, grows 2 hands......but the legs don't mature to handle that body. They run them....and the leg problems begin. Bone chips, spurs, altered gate (walk) and other leg aliments. If the problem works itself up to the horses back.... He's done.

Leg bones respond prematurely to the added stress of racing. The bone will grow at a rate corresponding to the stress. Frequently the bones grow to rapidly , lacking the strength needed to be a race horse.

Frequently a trainer will go right into the bone and shave it down. They shave off the immature portion of the bone. Then they turn them out to the farm for 6 months in the hopes that the bone will mature more slowly and stronger.

JustRalph
09-12-2005, 02:36 PM
Hey.....Funny Cide's got a shot!!!!!! :)

good for him!!! :lol:

andicap
09-12-2005, 03:05 PM
So if Bellamy Road were just an ordinary claimer or NW1, do you think they (the editorial "they", not referring specifically to Zito) would keep running him?



on the face of it, it seems like a good move.


How many times have we seen a superior 2YO come back for his 3YO campaign, run a couple of poor races, and 6 months later he's in for 25 Grand at Delaware park. There are 4Yo colts running for 12,500 at Suffolk Downs that sold for 1.3 million just 2 years before.

It is all about the legs. A colt runs great at 2 or 3, then puts on 400 pounds, grows 2 hands......but the legs don't mature to handle that body. They run them....and the leg problems begin. Bone chips, spurs, altered gate (walk) and other leg aliments. If the problem works itself up to the horses back.... He's done.

Leg bones respond prematurely to the added stress of racing. The bone will grow at a rate corresponding to the stress. Frequently the bones grow to rapidly , lacking the strength needed to be a race horse.

Frequently a trainer will go right into the bone and shave it down. They shave off the immature portion of the bone. Then they turn them out to the farm for 6 months in the hopes that the bone will mature more slowly and stronger.

Suff
09-12-2005, 03:23 PM
So if Bellamy Road were just an ordinary claimer or NW1, do you think they (the editorial "they", not referring specifically to Zito) would keep running him?

Actually, I think most outfits would retire him. But Concerto (his sire ) only stands for $5000, (up from $3500 last year) and was an also ran in the Derby one year.

I think if they thought they could get $25,000 plus out of the gate they might be inclined to do that. Not sure if the lone GRD1 win and 120 beyer translates into a substansial stud fee.

I believe they only paid 78 grand for him and he is two or three big wins away from bringing in Bacon. They make some Noise about his line to DISCOVERY... but that isn't resonating with anyone. yet.

I think many outfits would indeed continue to race him.....3 or 4 times a year. Steinbrenner does'nt need the money so many issues other owners may face do not exist.

A lot of Horses that get announced as "recuperating" and coming back , never do anyway.

DJofSD
09-12-2005, 08:52 PM
So which horse will the media over hype now?

DJofSD

michiken
09-12-2005, 10:17 PM
Pretty soon he will be racing next to Shake You Down at Charlestown??? :D :D

KingChas
09-12-2005, 10:56 PM
I hate to say this, but the Classic is shaping up to be a race of who cares. The top 3 YOs - out, the top older horses - retired. Second string for the Classic this year.

Kinda makes you wonder about which BC race "Lost In The Fog" will run in,Huh?Interesting ;)

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 10:00 AM
Kinda makes you wonder about which BC race "Lost In The Fog" will run in,Huh?Interesting ;)

I think you are suggesting that Lost in the Fog might consider running in the Classic.....

I think there is a 0% chance of that---and if he did go---I have some serious doubts about him being able to see out the ten furlong distance.

I think Lost In the Fog is very eligible to be a good turf miler---but this is the wrong year to even toy with the idea of trying him in the Mile. The only race that makes sense for LITF on Breeder's Cup day is the Sprint.

This isn't exactly a good group of older sprinters racing this year---and six furlong races at Belmont Park fit LITF's style very nicely.

lsbets
09-13-2005, 10:02 AM
After resisting all the Triple Crown temptations with LITF, I agree with Drug S, there is a 0% chance that his connections run him in the Classic.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 11:08 AM
After resisting all the Triple Crown temptations with LITF, I agree with Drug S, there is a 0% chance that his connections run him in the Classic.

No doubt! I REALLY hope Andy (TLG) isn't in an argumentative mood still. If he is, maybe we can get real lucky and he'll miss this post, and with it a point that I want to make about the Breeders Cup Sprint and Belmont Park!

They have run the Breeders Cup Sprint three times at Belmont Park. Below is what happened all three times!

* 1st running at BEL in '90. The team of Safely Kept and Dayjur race 1-2 all the way around the track and produce a $181.40 exacta. The best finish of the closers is by 3rd place finisher Black Tie Affiar who rallies from 8th to finish 3rd at 53-to-1 odds. BTA wins his next start at 8-to-1 odds. In the following year Black Tie Affair goes on to capture 7 Graded Stakes wins, including the BC Classic with a 120 Beyer, and the honor of '91 Horse of the Year.

* 2nd running at BEL in '95. Desert Stormer (14-to-1 and part of the field) goes wire-to-wire. 31-to-1 longshot Mr. Greeley runs 2nd at every call of the race and finishes 2nd. These two LITERALLY race 1-2 the entire way around the track and produce a $733.00 exacta. The best finish of the closers in this race is by longshot 3rd place finisher Lit De Justice. LDJ returns to win his next start on dirt by 5.5 lengths--and goes on to win the Breeders Cup Sprint the following year, and gets named champion sprinter as well.

* 3rd running at BEL in '01. Everyone is sure that a speed duel between fleet-footed types Xtra Heat, Caller One, and Squirtle Squirt will set it up for closers. But, the team of Xtra Heat, Caller One, and Squirtle Squirt are 1-2-3 at every call, and they produce a $2,162.00 trifecta! The best finish by a closer in the race is by 4th place finisher Swept Overboard. He wins his next start, and the next time S.O. runs at BEL, he wins the Met Mile in a blowout, at 11-to-1 odds, with a 122 Beyer figure. The 5th place finisher in this Sprint is Left Bank. He earns the comment "finished well." He wins the Eclipse Award for champion older horse the next year.

If history is any indication--I think it fair to say that taking a deep closer in this year's BC Sprint may not be such a great idea. That is why I said in an earlier post that Lost In The Fog's style suits him very well in the BC Sprint at Belmont.

BTW, I've obviously seen the film of the '90 race. Safely Kept made the lead, Dayjur fought it away from her, and when it looked like Dayjur was headed to a hard-fought victory, he twice jumped shadows, costing him all chance.

lsbets
09-13-2005, 11:22 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't LITF need to be supplemented to the Breeder's Cup? And doesn't the Classic carry a higher supplement than the Sprint? I just don't see the connections paying a huge supplement for a horse to do something he's never done before and they know he is not cut out to do.

Will LITF win the Sprint? Who knows, he never faces anyone, everyone is scared to run against him. But he's fast and he loves to win, and he loves the lead, which as you pointed out is probably going to be a pretty good place to be at Belmont. I'll be excited to see that race even if he's a low price because he might turn out to be a great sprinter. But I can't see myself getting excited for the Classic, its starting to look like the NFL strike season where they used the scab players.

the little guy
09-13-2005, 11:24 AM
A three race sample! Quite impressive.

I remember Dancing Spree coming from last in 1989.....otherwise why don't you tell us how speed has done in the other sprints. I'll bet shockingly well.

By the way, Dayjur was a CERTAIN winner, had he not jumped shadows. That race was over. And, Black Tie Affair walked on the lead to achieve his Classic win, against the worst Classic field ever....until 2005.

chickenhead
09-13-2005, 11:37 AM
Fog needs to draw middle/outside and rate a little bit through the first quarter. If he draws inside and gets sent, his chances are diminished greatly, imo.

OTM Al
09-13-2005, 11:43 AM
I think LITF has a fair shot at the Sprint. Maybe we'll see for sure if Woke Up Dreaming goes against him in that new BM sprint stakes in a couple weeks.

As for the Classic, let's see who will probably be showing up

Of the 3yos I'd expect to see

Flower Alley
Roman Ruler
Sun King, outside chance but can't see Zito sitting this out

Might be one or two others, but don't see much left there

Of the older

Perfect Drift (back for a record 4th time!)
Funny Cide, if he shows anything at all in the Jockey Club
Rock Hard Ten, if he's well
Saint Liam
Borrego
Imperialism
Lava Man, if he's ok and they want to supplement

and that's about all I can think of off the top of my head. This could really be ripe for the picking if a good Euro comes over.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 11:46 AM
But I can't see myself getting excited for the Classic, its starting to look like the NFL strike season where they used the scab players.

I've got a future book bet (a token bet) on Rock Hard Ten. If he makes the race, and preps well in the Goodwood, I will really like his chances.

He's undefeated for Mandella, he's just an exceptionally good looking athletic horse, he has both the look and the pedigree of a horse who will improve with age---and I think he ran some real nice races at age 3, for a trainer (Jason Orman) who I don't have all that much respect for.

It's a lot easier to like him when there are no Ghostzapper's around! I made a fool of myself on national sports radio by picking this horse to win the '04 Belmont Stakes in an interview I did with a now retired NFL running back.

This year's Classic will likely rate with the '93, '86, '02, and '99 as one of the five worst ever. On the bright side, I think this year's Juvie has the potential to be one of the best Juvie's ever. It almost certainly has to be better than the MISERABLE, DREADFUL, AWFUL Juvie's of the past four years.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 11:56 AM
A three race sample! Quite impressive.

I remember Dancing Spree coming from last in 1989.....otherwise why don't you tell us how speed has done in the other sprints. I'll bet shockingly well.

There have only been three BC Sprint races run at Belmont Park.

LOL--I just knew you would love that!!!

'04- Speighstown wins from up close

'03- Cajun beat wins from up close

'02- Orientate wins from up close

'01- Squitle Squirt wins from up close

'00- Kona Gold wins from up close

'99- Artax is a head back at first call, leads rest of the way

'98- Reraise wins wire-to-wire

'97- Elmhurst wins from last-to-first (Hollywood Park)

'96- Lit De Justice wins from last-to-first (Woodbine)

'95- Desert Stormer wins wire-to-wire

'94- Cherokee Run wins from mid-pack

'93- Cardmania wins from mid-pack

'92- Thirty Slews wins from up close

'91- Shiek Albadou wins from mid-pack

'90- Safely Kept from up close

'89- Dancing Spree from mid-pack. (7th after a 1/4 mile in field of 13)

'88- Gulch from mid-pack

'87- Very Subtle wire-to-wire

'86- Smile from up close

'85- Precisionist from up close

'84- Eillo wire-to-wire

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 12:07 PM
And, Black Tie Affair walked on the lead to achieve his Classic win, against the worst Classic field ever....until 2005.

That was hardly the worst Classic field ever!

I'll take Unbridled, Summer Squall, Black Tie Affair, Strike The Gold, Festin, Twilight Agenda, Fly So Free, Marquetry, Chief Honcho and two Gr.1 turf winners from Europe over a lot of other BC Classic fields.

The race in 2002 was won by Volponi with Milwaukee Brew running 3rd, Macho Uno 4th, and Dollar Bill 5th...and I think that field was better than the '93 race!

KirisClown
09-13-2005, 12:10 PM
This year's Classic will likely rate with the '93, '86, '02, and '99 as one of the five worst ever.

What about 1997? Outside of Skip Away and Dep Commander, there's the woefully off form Touch Gold, and a young and overmatched Behrens. 97 was the worst ive seen.. http://www.ntra.com/images/97classic.gif

It was certainly far far worse then the field that assembled in 93...

cj
09-13-2005, 12:18 PM
93 was horrible. I mean, Bertando was 6-5 or so to get 1 1/4 miles?

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 12:30 PM
Every single one of the 11 horses who ran in the Breeders Cup Classic the year Black Tie Affair won it, has won a Grade 1 race.

I think it can be argued, that quite a few horses in that race, came into the race at a time when they weren't in there absolute prime. Still, I think it's an error to say that field is the worst Classic field ever.

I was only nine years old when Black Tie Affair won the Classic though, so it would be really stupid for me to go any further with this one---as I only vaguely remember all the details and happenings of the 1990 season. I am very fimilar with the horses who ran in that race though--and have film on all the American ones.

I really wish I could put out a horse I like for the Breeders Cup Sprint right now, but I just don't have one I'm totally sold on yet. I should also note, that my record as a bettor in the Breeders Cup Sprint is comically bad! I've bet that race like 11 times, and have only profited on the race one year. I think it might be wise to just cross off whoever I like in that race---based on my own personal history with the BC Sprint.

the little guy
09-13-2005, 01:03 PM
I'm confused....Black Tie Affair won the 1991 Classic at Churchill, by walking on the lead in an extremely slow pace, and I believe beating Twilight Agenda. Unbridled won the 1990 Classic at Belmont. I don't think he was in the 1991 Classic, but I could be wrong, and if he was I doubt he had much form.

The favorite for 1991 would have been In Excess, who was the best horse that year, but something obviously went wrong with him after the Whitney, and his connections told everyone that when they ran him in the mile.

KirisClown
09-13-2005, 01:18 PM
93 was horrible. I mean, Bertando was 6-5 or so to get 1 1/4 miles?


It wasnt as if Bertrando was filth though, he had won at 10F before, and ran some huge races at the distance. He was coming into the classic that year off a big win in the Pac Classic at 10F, and a 13 lth romp in the Woodward. He was also coupled with Marquetry and Missionary Ridge, decent horses in their own right.

GMB@BP
09-13-2005, 01:20 PM
It wasnt as if Bertrando was filth though, he had won at 10F before, and ran some huge races at the distance. He was coming into the classic that year off a big win in the Pac Classic at 10F, and a 13 lth romp in the Woodward. He was also coupled with Marquetry and Missionary Ridge, decent horses in their own right.

Its also completely misleading to say he was 6/5, he was part of at least a three horse entry, maybe four with frankel when they had that archaic rule, I believe with Tinners Way and Missionary Ridge.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 01:36 PM
I'm confused....Black Tie Affair won the 1991 Classic at Churchill, by walking on the lead in an extremely slow pace, and I believe beating Twilight Agenda. Unbridled won the 1990 Classic at Belmont. I don't think he was in the 1991 Classic, but I could be wrong, and if he was I doubt he had much form.

The favorite for 1991 would have been In Excess, who was the best horse that year, but something obviously went wrong with him after the Whitney, and his connections told everyone that when they ran him in the mile.

Unbridled rallied from dead last to finish 3rd in the 1991 Breeders Cup Classic. Behind Black Tie Affair and Twilight Agenda.

It was my mistake for putting out the 11 horses who ran in the '91 field and calling it the 1990 BC.

I have charts and pp's for the race---and I still can't get the god damn year right! That tells you how smart I am!

You are 100% correct about In Excess passing on that race for the Mile.

Unbridled ran a 115 beyer despite closing from last place in the '91 Classic which BTA won. He always showed up on the biggest days. He, as you know, won the Derby and Classic the previous year.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 01:42 PM
Its also completely misleading to say he was 6/5, he was part of at least a three horse entry, maybe four with frankel when they had that archaic rule, I believe with Tinners Way and Missionary Ridge.

It was a three horse entry. Bertrando was coupled with an off-form Missionary Ridge, and the 6-year-old Marquetry.

A better knock on the race might be that Kissin Kris, who was 2-for-24 lifetime in route races, was the 6-to-1 clear-cut third choice in the betting.

the little guy
09-13-2005, 01:54 PM
Not as bad as Rhythm being the 4-1 favorite in the 1990 Classic.

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 02:01 PM
It wasnt as if Bertrando was filth though, he had won at 10F before, and ran some huge races at the distance. He was coming into the classic that year off a big win in the Pac Classic at 10F, and a 13 lth romp in the Woodward.

True, but in the previous five races to the Pac Classic, he had faltered on the lead all five times. And in the Breeders Cup Juvie as a 2yo, he made Arazi look like the most brilliant finisher of all-time when he coughed up that lead.

Those two races are hard to overshadow an entire year of coughing up leads. I was young and somewhat stupid at the time---I'll admit I took the 6-to-5 on the Betrando entry---because there was no one else worth betting on in the race.

Jerry Bailey saved every inch of ground with the 133-to-1 French horse, and got up with a perfect trip. The 2-for-24 lifetime (in route races) Kissin Kris was up for 3rd. Kissin Kris never won another race--in two more years of trying.

All the while, Cigar was racing on the turf! It's a good thing they decided to try the grass for 11 straight times (with one win!) after he had that flashy MSW win on the dirt! very shrewd!

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 02:09 PM
Not as bad as Rhythm being the 4-1 favorite in the 1990 Classic.

According to the chart---Rhythm was a 2.6-to-1 favorite. So, 5-to-2, not 4-to-1.

He ran 8th. Showed no speed, modest middle move and tired late.

I've always loved Unbridled from some of the film I have of his better races. He didn't beat anything that special in the '90 Classic as I look back on it. Still did win from a tough draw--and I always felt his Derby win was very underrated! He didn't always show up though.

KirisClown
09-13-2005, 02:34 PM
Those two races are hard to overshadow an entire year of coughing up leads.

I think you're being a little too hard on Bertrando... going into the 93 BC he had a record of 15-7-5-2. Winner of over 2.5 million.

His record after 93 is inmaterial, as he went to stud and returned, never to truely be the same.

Here's some trivia though.... he did show ability to come back after being passed in the stretch.... What race was it? and what horse passed him only to get outgamed late?

DrugSalvastore
09-13-2005, 03:07 PM
Here's some trivia though.... he did show ability to come back after being passed in the stretch.... What race was it? and what horse passed him only to get outgamed late?

I remember him coughing up the lead, and coming back to win a stake late in his career. I think it was the Goodwood. As for who passed him and gave the lead and win back to him---i have no clue---I'll settle on Kissin Kris, since I know how badly he would hang, though I'm certain that's wrong.

Bertrando coughed up seven leads from Dec 26th of '92 through the '93 Classic. He did win three nice races over that span--but he's no Spend A Buck, that's for sure!

KirisClown
09-13-2005, 03:14 PM
I remember him coughing up the lead, and coming back to win a stake late in his career. I think it was the Goodwood. As for who passed him and gave the lead and win back to him---i have no clue---I'll settle on Kissin Kris, since I know how badly he would hang, though I'm certain that's wrong.

You're half right, very good, it was the GOODWOOD. The horse who passed him was Dramatic Gold...

Kissin Kris was busy finishing up the track in the JCGP behind Colonial Affair...