3yo crop, The Press, & Cigar in '93

[DrugSalvastore]

During my lifetime, I remember the 3-year-old crop of 1993 as being the least respected and most knocked crop. Everyone seemed to have no respect for that crop.

The 1993 Preakness would be won by eventual division champion Praire Bayou, with a beyer speed figure of 98. It was the 3rd major stake race PB had won. All three with a Beyer of 98 or less.

The same week of the 1993 Preakness, at Hollywood Park in California, a 3yo colt named Cigar broke his maiden in 1:09.40 and earned a 93 beyer.

Not that much was known about Cigar--he was just a 2nd time starter for Alex Hassinger, who looked pretty sharp winning a maiden sprint on the dirt in fast time. Cigar was also a half brother to a Puerto Rican champion filly named Mulca. Mulca compiled a very impressive record of 38-15-16-2 in mostly sprint races.

With the 3-year-old crop considered to be so very poor--you would have to figure that this talanted horse Cigar would be rushed to test it. But, after that slick maiden win on the dirt--Cigar was moved to turf racing for his next 11 starts. He won just one of those eleven starts.

Finally, new trainer Bill Mott, after four miserable grass tries with Cigar, switched him back to dirt racing. Cigar won his next 16 straight dirt races, giving him 17 dirt wins in a row, and the brilliant racing press made Bill Mott out to be a genius for switching Cigar off the grass.

1993 was just not a good year for horse racing. The three triple crown races were all won in slow fashion by ordinary horses, the division champion Prarie Bayou lost his life as a result of an injury in the Belmont Stakes, the '93 Breeders Cup Classic was won by a 131-to-1 medicore longshot from France named Arcangues, and all the while the highest regarded horse of the decade was being repeatedly raced on a surface he didn't care for.

[KingChas]

Drug, A little reverse question for you.What do think about Mott's- Warrior Song?Race 4 Belmont 7/10/05(today).Maiden dirt loss 4.5f 2004 with problem start and off track.Followed by big turf win 2005.Back to dirt?Sire-Unbridled's Song :confused:

[DrugSalvastore]

Drug, A little reverse question for you.What do think about Mott's- Warrior Song?Race 4 Belmont 7/10/05(today).Maiden dirt loss 4.5f 2004 with problem start and off track.Followed by big turf win 2005.Back to dirt?Sire-Unbridled's Song :confused:

I bet this horse and got rewarded with a $19.40 mutual last time--so I'm glad you asked. This horse has INSANELY STRONG turf breeding.

The 4th race at Belmont Park tomorrow is loaded with fantastic pedigrees. Really AMAZING race from a pedigree standpoint. The #2 horse is a full brother to Ghostzapper and half to City Zip. The #2B is Storm Cat to Honest Lady. The #3 horse is by STG out of Gr.1 winning mare. And the horse you mention (Warrior Song) has awesome breeding as well.

Warrior Song belongs on the turf!!--and in my opinion Mott is wasting his time with this dirt experiment.

Warrior Song's mother won the 1991 edition of the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the Keeneland turf. Warrior Song's mother is also a sibling to numerous stake horses. Including a turf millionaire named Al Momoon, who set the pace in the '85 BC Mile and finished 2nd to Cozzene. His mom is also a sibling to Lost Soldier. Lost Soldier was a turf miler--BUT is also the sire of top dirt sprinter Lost in the Fog. And maybe that is the reason behind this idiotic move off the turf?

Warrior Song's 2nd dam (grandmother) is a sibling to the greatest turf filly to ever race. His 2nd dam is named Lady Winborne, she's by the sire Secretariat, and is a half sister to Allez France!

Those who don't know about Allez France should be ashamed of themselves! She was a Grade 1 winner in France at age 2, 3, 4, and 5. She twice won the world's most important race, The Arc de Triomphe. And she had a 7-for-7 head-to-head lifetime record against American Champion Turf horse and Hall of Famer Dahlia. Think she liked the turf??

I will probably be betting Aristocrat in that race. He got burned up in a crazy fast pace last time out--and I think he will like the cut-back. The nice work, and the quick turnaround is a good sign for a Frankel trained horse exiting a disappointing race. I'm putting Ingot, Spainish Mission, and the Dutrow entry behind him in exactas. Good luck.

[DrugSalvastore]

I should note that when I trash guys like Wayne Lukas, and make critical remarks about a move Bill Mott makes--I'm doing it from a handicapping standpoint...I don't pretend to have compare-able horsemanship skills to either one of those two guys!

More than one trainer has asked me before "and how many winners have you trained?" when I've questioned them and told them they are making big mistakes.

I've never won any race. I've never even worked around any good horses. I did work on the backside for a few months. I was once the hotwalker for a horse who is now graded stakes placed in NY. That's it though.

If you start knocking these guys about workout patterns, or feet care, or feeding programs, or racing equipment--at that point you are crossing the line.

[the little guy]

Is it just me, or does everyone feel like they need a valium after reading DrugSalvastore's posts?

The reason Warrior Song is running on the dirt is that his connections probably want to be absolutely sure that their $750K purchase can't run on the dirt before pursuing a career exclusively on the turf. His debut, on the dirt, proved little to nothing. There is obviously more money, opportunities, and prestige ( as well as breeding potential ) for dirt horses....so being that this horse exploded last out, they just want to be certain it was only because of the switch in surfaces.

By the way, DrugS, the prior question did not require a post race redboard on your, supposedly ;), having Warrior Song ( I picked him at Siro's citing the same info you post-raced us with ). And, furthermore, since you're such a detail oriented guy, Aristocrat chased a fast pace on arguably the strongest speed track of the meet, where the leader in that aforementioned " crazy fast pace " ( love the hyperbole ) finished fourth after collapsing on the far turn. Spanish Mission, who was right with Aristocrat on that " crazy fast pace " lost by a head ( as opposed to Aristocrat's 14 1/2 length narrow defeat ). I can see arguing the cutback to a one-turn mile, in his second race off a maiden victory, as helping Aristocrat, but the rest of your argument fails to hold water. But hey, the whole argument may well be moot, as Aristocrat is a very possible scratch, as he is entered in a turf race on Sunday.

[DrugSalvastore]

I personally don't agree about the Aug. 21st track being that speed biased.

You had ten dirt races that day---two of them won wire-to-wire, one was by 6-to-5 favorite Yes Yes Yes and the other was by 9-to-5 favorite War Marshall against a DREADFUL field in an off-the-turf race.

And as far as why I consider the pace to be "crazy fast" in that one race, we are talking about 3yo N2L ALW horses going 23.06 and 46.56---in the very next race---a Grade 2 race for older horses produced fractions of 24.07 and 48.25.

Andy, if the track was so speed biased that day, than how come the horses who raced last and 2nd to last early on, finished 1st and 3rd in the common race Aristocrat and Spanish Mission come out of?? I mean, maybe it was the pace, or maybe the track wasn't that biased, or maybe you just want it both ways?

As for why I don't like Spanish Mission more than Aristocrat, we are talking about a horse with a 9-1-5-2 lifetime record, as you say "the horse has "character flaws" and his one win came at the expense of Bredwinner, who is also the faint-hearted type.

Aristocrat, looks to me like a horse with some upside, and a change in tactics will serve him well. His last race was a throwout to me. I think, if Frankel tries that spot, he will be a decent price...and worth a stab. I don't love him, but I'm willing to lose a little money to find out if he's better than that last race suggests.

I missed the show where you touted Warrior Song based on pedigree. Good for you. His pedigree is no different today than it was last month--that little I know.

I agree with you about my posts. Reading them could give aspirin a headache. Sorry! I should have paid attention in school!

[Bruddah]

I like 'Drugs' take on horses and races. Obviously, you both are good/ professional handicappers, just different points of view. Most would never research the race, as deeply as you two have, in the above posts. Very informative and impressive. The two of you are to be commended for providing the rest of us with great insight. You are the type of posters, I can go to school on and with.

Thanks :)

[the little guy]

Looking at charts and determining number of wire-to-wire victors can be deceptive both in labeling tracks speed favoring or not, as it is really the manner in which races are run that determine biases, as few actually exist compared to the number that exist in peoples' minds.

August 21st....

1 ) Yes Yes Yes and Silent Bid duel in a fast pace at 5 1/2 F with the former winning easily at 6-5 and the latter barely holding second ( at 7:1 ) over Smoke Warning who stumbled at the start. Not a particular indication of anything save no horse gaining any ground to snatch second.

2 ) Preminger wires the fiield from the inside ( at 6:1 ) only to have victory snatched from him when Eibar Coa foolishly whips him right handed and he brushes second finisher Cooking the Books in the stretch after putting that one away. Let me add that Preminger finished nowhere in his return yesterday, while third finisher Tommasi finished second in the same race, after attempting to close while reasonably wide on August 21st.

3 ) Even money Seaside Salute stalks the speed ( a half length off ) of Goldfinger'stouch ( 6:1 ) only to draw off and win easily with second choice Heathrow easily getting second.

4 ) 9:5 War Marshall cruises to the lead in this off-the-turf maiden race and scores easily...wire-to-wire.

5 ) Ex Caelis and Serena's Cat duel around the track together, with inside horse Ex Caelis snatching what looks like certain victory from favored Serena's Cat late in the race. It will be interesting to see how closer Better Now and chaser Emma Go Braugh do tomorrow at Belmont.

Just a note at this point....all five winners have been on or just off the lead ( Seaside Salute was a half off at the first call, all the rest were either clear or head and head ).

6 ) 1-2 RunningforPresident stalks the speed of 10-1 Cherokee Chief, draws alongside that one into the stretch, leads by a half at the stretch call, and is hard use to narrowly defeat that stubborn rival by a length. It's five back to the third horse. This race, along with the fifth, really starts to solidify the bias.

7 ) 6-5 Sir Greeley stalks the pace and blows them away on the turn to win easily, with the two early duelers fighting it out for second. Nobody else picks up any ground.

8 ) The second two-turn race is the previously discussed Aristocrat race. It is my contention that the hopeless Harbor Master even holding fourth ( beaten just over 8 lengths ) combined with the stalking Spanish Mission losing by a head add fuel to the " speed track " argument when you consider the extremely fast pace involved.

9 ) The obvious Suave ( miraculously 3:1 ) stumbles at the start, recovers to duel for the lead, and eventually draw off to an easy victory.

10 ) A ridiculous NY-Bred off-the-turf NW1X at 1 1/8 miles is won by closer Downtownsundown after quitting sprinter Magic Belle sets a respectively faster pace than the 8th ( 23 1/5 and 47 1/5 compared to 23 and 46 2/5 ) and miraculously easily holds second ( despite looking like she might collapse at the top of the stretch ).

I am NOT a guy who looks for biases, and I believe that for the most part they don't exist ( at least in NY where I follow the races closely ), but in this case I believe the facts are impossible to ignore. I believe you would be well served to watch the races from that day over again ( I am not quite sure you ever WATCHED them in the first place ) and perhaps see if your opinion isn't at least slightly swayed.

[the little guy]

I respect anybody that takes the game even nearly as seriously as DrugSalvastore and find that far more often than not I agree with his posts and thoughts. There is no sense in arguing with anyone that you feel can't do so from strength.

[DrugSalvastore]

8 ) The second two-turn race is the previously discussed Aristocrat race. It is my contention that the hopeless Harbor Master even holding fourth ( beaten just over 8 lengths ) combined with the stalking Spanish Mission losing by a head add fuel to the " speed track " argument when you consider the ***extremely*** fast pace involved.

I am NOT a guy who looks for biases, and I believe that for the most part they don't exist ( at least in NY where I follow the races closely ), but in this case I believe the facts are impossible to ignore. I believe you would be well served to watch the races from that day over again ( I am not quite sure you ever WATCHED them in the first place ) and perhaps see if your opinion isn't at least slightly swayed.

Andy, I did watch the races that day, I do watch the races and make notes everyday. In my spiral notebook I have 'up close, inside types preferred' at the top of the page for that day. That's my wishy washy way of saying 'maybe' a speed bias was in play--but likely not.

I have a problem labeling a track "speed biased" when a lot of horses who win seem like logical horses. I also have a hard time labeling it as being speed biased when only 2 of 10 go wire-to-wire--and they are both chalks. I'm just as conservative as you with labeling biases. We see this one different though. You had six post time favorites, and two second choices win that day! I just need to see a horse that made no sense get carried to victory or near victory at decent odds. They ran 10 races on dirt that day--and I just didn't see it.

You originally mocked how I called the pace in Aristocrat's race as being 'crazy fast.' In your latest post, you call it "extremely fast." You've changed your tune some on that.

Only one horse the entire Saratoga meet ran an opening half mile faster than the 46 2/5ths in the Aristocrat race. It wasn't Commentater either--his opening half was also 46 2/5ths in the Whitney.

On Sep 1st. South Wing went 46.38, opening up an 8 length lead after a half mile in the Saratoga Dew Stakes, and in the process posting the fastest half mile fraction for nine furlongs at the entire Saratoga meeting. That pace is only 0.18 seconds faster than the one in the Aristocrat race.

Aristocrat was hung out 3-to-4 wide the entire way around the first turn, while chasing that, as you now say, "extremely fast pace" in what was only the 3rd start of his life. That's not an easy trip in my opinion. That race proved nothing at all to me!

I'm not crazy about him trying grass, and I'm not saying that he's any kind of nice horse, I just think he can win a race like this--and you would figure to get a nice price off that horrible looking running line he will bring into this race.

[the little guy]

I mocked your amusing choice of words....not the concept.

I will say that saying there were only two wire-to-wire winners that day is shockingly dogmatic and a poor misrepresentation of what happened that day. As I'm sure you know....it's all about the subtleties.

By the way, I think Aristocrat has a chance if he runs today, and never said he didn't. I don't disagree with most of your reasoning ( here or anywhere ).

[DrugSalvastore]

10 ) A ridiculous NY-Bred off-the-turf NW1X at 1 1/8 miles is won by closer Downtownsundown after quitting sprinter Magic Belle sets a respectively faster pace than the 8th ( 23 1/5 and 47 1/5 compared to 23 and 46 2/5 )

One thing to note though, in her previous start, Magic Belle sat just off a 21.83 opening quarter in a six furlong sprint race. So it's not surprsing that she went that fast--even with Prado trying to rate her.

Andy is 100% right when he notes that this race had a repectively faster pace, BUT, this was a real odd situation. The horse in question had no chance to get nine furlongs on paper--but when the race came off-the-grass--she looked like a vastly superior horse to her oppositon--and who can blame the trainer for not scratching a favorite against a weak as hell looking group.

I have a lot of respect for Andy, and I'll be the first to admit my writing style is annoying, but I will defend my opinion, even to a fault, against anyone.

I'll give this one up here and now and get back to work. I'm glad if someone got something out of this. LOL. Warrior Song will probably draw off and win by 10 now--and Aristocrat will run last with no excuse.

[Tom]

We have DEFINATLEY got to have you two go at it more often! ;)


GREAT thread

[Valuist]

I missed this thread earlier. Definitely agree that the 1993 3YO crop was the worst in the over 20 years I've been following racing. Sea Hero would've been fortunate to win the Ohio Derby in other years.

[KirisClown]

1993 was just not a good year for horse racing.


Ill take the racing from 1993 over what he have now any day.

[46zilzal]

the '93 Breeders Cup Classic was won by a 131-to-1 medicore longshot from France named Arcangues, and all the while the highest regarded horse of the decade was being repeatedly raced on a surface he didn't care for.
a grade one stakes winner on two continents and on two surfaces is HARDLY mediocre

[midnight]

So does all that mean that after all these decades, Belmont STILL has an early bias on dirt?

According to the one-year track profile stats from HDW (in HTR), the top three horses at the second call (fast tracks) are winning the following percent of races. Display is in the format of furlongs, percent, number of races:

5.0 100% ( 20)
5.5 71% ( 17)
6.0 66% (142)
6.5 88% ( 32)
7.0 75% ( 76)
7.5 60% ( 15)
8.0 62% ( 81)
8.5 60% ( 78)

Off-track has similar results.

Since the average field size was about 7, the expected result from picking three horses by chance is about 43%. So the I.V. for this would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.70 for the sprints and 1.40 for the routes. That seems odd, considering that all the listed distances are run around one turn, until you remember that the run to the first turn is short for Belmont sprints, compared to other tracks. For example, a five furlong race practically starts on the turn, and a six furlong has roughly a furlong run to the turn (instead of the two furlong run at most other tracks).

[toetoe]

Call me Michael Jackson. I LOVE Drugs and little guys. What a great back- and- forth. Wish I could confidently disagree with something and dive in. Just cataloguing the races of the day, ideally with multiple races at today's most meaningful distance, can be as fruitful as poring over pp's.

[Bruddah]

Agree to disagree and let the rest of us enjoy the back and forth. Good job guys and thanks. ;)

[DrugSalvastore]

Warrior Song showed good speed, but stopped and was practically eased yesterday. He offically finished last beaten 49 lengths at 9-to-2 odds. The reason why I called that an idiotic experiment, is because I felt the likelyhood of ruining the progress this horse has made is overwhelmingly greater than the likelyhood of this horse being a stakes quality dirt horse.

You can really screw-up a horse like this by running him where Mott chose to run him yesterday. Bill Mott might have a very hard time getting this horse back to where he was before he ran him yesterday--and even if he accomplishes that, it still isn't good for the confidence of the horse to lose like that.

Aristocrat scratched yesterday to run in the grass race today. I won't be betting him in that race today--so I will be rooting for him run a poor race. Another unimpressive looking running line today, will only mean he will be even more overlooked when he runs back on the dirt.

I believe that this horse has only run one race in his entire life that gives an accurate indication of how good he is. that was his 91 beyer win on opening day at Saratoga. Just yesterday, Rumspringa, who was 2nd in that MSW race to Aristocrat, took a juiced-up $60,000 MSW race at Deleware Park. Rumspringa's final time was only 0.52 seconds slower than a $200,000 stake for older fillies. Rumspringa's win made him THE FOURTH horse to win back out of Aristocrat's maiden win. And another horse, Sir Halory, got beat a nose with a 91 Beyer on Travers weekend, or that number would be five.

There were no smoke-and-mirrors involved with Aristocrat's maiden win either. He was the only winner that day who raced close to the early pace. It's rare when you can get a nice price on a young, royally bred, Frankel-trained horse, but if he runs poorly today, I will like him even more next time on dirt.

Spanish Mission was a sharp winner yesterday. I love to bet horses, on the cut-back, who win pace battles through fast fractions, and stay on for 2nd like he did in his previous race. BUT, I want no part of any horse at 9-to-5 odds, who has a 9-1-5-2 record with the lone win coming over Bredwinner. Needless to say, I didn't bet SM or the 4th race yesterday.

The horse who ran 2nd to Spanish Mission was Ingot. Ingot has now been a well-beaten 2nd in three straight races--at odds of 1-to-2, even money, and 3-to-1. He isn't exactly proving to be a courageous type himself!

When I was going back and fourth with Andy, I kept bringing up the fact that only two of ten winners won wire-to-wire on the card we were discussing. He's correct when he says that such a stat is dogmatic and can be misleading, but I was going somewhere with that. As I recall, Ky Derby winner Giacomo's lifetime record is 2-for-10. That's what that was all about.

[the little guy]

The four horses to win out of the Aristocrat maiden race:

Rumspringa - won a maiden at Delaware at 6:5

War Marshall - won an off the turf maiden race in his second start following the Aristocrat race. That effort is sandwiched by two 17 length drubbings.

Afternoon Que - won an extremely weak maiden claiming race at Belmont

Cat Stalker - beat 20K 3YO claimers in his next start followed by a six place finish at Turfway.

Sir Halory - lost by a nose at 4:5 ( I know, he lost to the great Nolan's Cat ).

Not that you called it a key race, as it certainly isn't ( at least to me ), but I think it's important to show exactly what those four winners actually accomplished.

As for your claim that he was the only winner that raced close to the pace....well yes but speed was hardly a major detriment. Here is a recap of the dirt races that day.

2 ) Favored Stolen Identity sat third off the duel between Tip City and Retrospect. Tip City finished fourth and has followed that effort with several uninspiring performances, hardly suggesting he was hampered by being on the lead July 27th, and the same could be said for Retrospect, who finished second in his subsequent effort.

4 ) June the Tiger took advantage of a speed duel between Magic Alphabet and Summerland to close from last at 5-2. Summerland finished second and then ran a bad third late in the meet after walking on a lone lead, while Magic Alphabet returned to win at a short price, only to be disqualified, after changing tactics and rating off a three horse speed duel in a fairly uncontentious 5 1/2 furlong race.

5 ) Velvet Cat, a Pletcher firster, closed from fourth to run down Wrigley, who dueled with third finisher Pimm's O'Clock. Wrigley followed that effort with a poor outing in his next start.

8 ) 9:5 Thunder Touch sat a perfect trip behind duelers Spooky Mulder and Grand Reward, who finished second and third. Spooky Mulder was yet another horse who didn't move forward off his supposed against the bias trip ;) when he finished second, as the controlling speed, in a four horse field in his next start.

9 ) This race was dominated by closers, as 6:5 favorite Adieu had a bad trip, breaking slowly and getting pinned inside from there forward. It is also important to note that the track was sealed before the EIGHTH race, and the surface for these last two dirt races was completely different than the beginning of the card.

Now, I realize you never said it was a closer's track, but in upgrading Aristocrat's effort for being on the lead seemed to imply that. All I can say is that I disagree if you think Aristocrat ran better than it looked, when breaking his maiden, because he was on the lead. I can buy your argument that his form has been somewhat darkened after his 1 1/8 mile race and subsequent turf effort, and he certainly rates to do better if cut back to 7F or a mile, but I cannot buy any argument that suggests his maiden win is any better than it looks on paper.

[KingChas]

The reason Warrior Song is running on the dirt is that his connections probably want to be absolutely sure that their $750K purchase can't run on the dirt before pursuing a career exclusively on the turf. His debut, on the dirt, proved little to nothing. There is obviously more money, opportunities, and prestige ( as well as breeding potential ) for dirt horses....so being that this horse exploded last out, they just want to be certain it was only because of the switch in surfaces.

.

As of the current events this weekend,I find things very saddening.The bottom line is as TLG says"more money and prestige".Disregard the horses possible broken spirit. Mr Dutrow's rabbit race yesterday for the money,brings me to another question about Dutrow. 3 year old.Golden Man-scratched yesterday.After running back to back days in the severe July heat and making his connections some decent bucks.Will he ever be the same?I have seen a decent horse broken (mismanaged) this year "Going Wild".Maybe I should add Golden Man and Warrior Song-the verdicts still out.Horses are disposable anymore/wish some of the human connections were too.

[the little guy]

That might be a little harsh in the case of Warrior Song, as Bill Mott is as fine a trainer as there is, and I see little chance he would do something to the detriment of his horses. I don't think you can blame the connections for wanting to test his dirt ability, as he had only one career dirt effort, and something more than likely happened that day as he was off nearly a year following that race. More than likely he will be fine ( at least I hope so ) and I think Mott has more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

Dutrow hasn't.

[KingChas]

Respect for Mott agreed-but WS's finish sure didn't look pretty. :eek:

[KingChas]

I think Mott has more than earned the benefit of the doubt.

Dutrow hasn't.

Not to strike a bad nerve with you TLG,but as you know horseracing is a business.

We are bitch'in and Mr. Dutrow is laughing all the way to the bank.

It's called selling your soul. ;)

[the little guy]

All I can say is that things are not always as they appear.

[KingChas]

All I can say is that things are not always as they appear.

As to Warrior Song's finish or Dick laughing all the way? :D

Richest People?
1.=Inhereted It
2.=Ruthless Business Person
3.=Earned It

Or are 2 & 3 the same?

[toetoe]

Love the thread. Just my experience, but it seems Mott prefers to run his talented ones through their conditions (NW1,2,3,4) before throwing them to the wolves. I usually assume his horse can handle it, if BM enters it in a stake, seemingly prematurely.

[DrugSalvastore]

but I cannot buy any argument that suggests his maiden win is any better than it looks on paper.

Andy, I clearly said "there was no smoke-and-mirrors involved that day." I didn't say that his race was better than it looks on paper---I was just trying to prove that the race wasn't the result of a favorable track bias, super easy trip, or anything else like that.

The horses who finished behind him in that maiden race have compiled a record of 8-4-1-0 in subsequent dirt starts. The wins, off the top of my head, at 3-to-5, 6-to-5, 9-to-5, and 5-to-1.

I didn't call that a key race either. I just wanted to prove that it wasn't one of those maiden heats that was full of career maidens.

This horse is going to have an ugly looking form when he shows up next time.

[the little guy]

I know, I wasn't implying you were, just detailing the " evenness " of the day and race.

I understand that his two recent races won't look good, but the public is smart, and with Frankel training, and that horses bloodlines-hype, he isn't going to offer real darkened form value. He's kind of wiseguy 101....and somehow I doubt you're that kind of player.

[Valuist]

Isn't he a full to Ghostzapper? It seems that these regally bred horses are almost always overbet. He hasn't proven himself worthy of the heavy betting action he's gotten.

[DrugSalvastore]

Isn't he a full to Ghostzapper? It seems that these regally bred horses are almost always overbet. He hasn't proven himself worthy of the heavy betting action he's gotten.

Yes, he's a full brother. He was like 14-to-1 in his last race, the only time he's been really overbet is in the race after he broke his maiden.

I don't think this horse has really been bet nearly as heavy as you suggest. I'm also not so sure that wiseguy types will flock to him next time out.

No doubt I would much rather this be a horse by nothing out of nothing for a decent trainer like Tom Bush or Ramon Hernandez--trainers that doesn't get overbet. It is VERY true though, that this horse has done nothing to justify this many posts on a message board...or any talk at all. That much I agree with.

[Ron]

Aristrocrat has been running against fuller fields and good competition.