MultiCaps - which fair odds ?

[vidpokbob]

My first posting here, so hello to all ! Bought a book by Barry Meadow called "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" and he touts value-betting by looking for overlays of "fair odds" lines.
A lot of people agree with the concept here. So, after reading some posts, I decided to start out with BrisNet's MultiCaps.
Lots of great info, however, the "value odds" for the horses change on each screen, since they are based on the dominant handicapping factor for that particular category.
Has anyone been using MultiCaps, and which factor seems to yield the most-consistent results in terms of those fair odds ?
Being brand-new to the software, I would think the TPR (Total Pace Rating) page would use the most factors overall so the fair-odds line would not be overly influenced by any one factor.
Appreciate the feedback...btw, I'm also looking at CompuTrak but wanted to start out easy and get my feet wet first with this "value betting" concept.

[mhrussell]

Barrys book is considered the best work on the subject, and I agree.. good choice! Read it several times... you will get more out of it each read.


Bet Value is the dominant factor in this game and you need to get a real understanding and feel for this. You will not like my recommendation for you, but here it is anyway: forget about software for the time being. Get Mark Cramer's "Value Handicapping" and give that a read next. Then, with just your brain and past performances... construct your own betting lines by hand for a few months. Get a feel sense for the process. If you have some favorite numerical ratings you like to use; then make a simple spreadsheet and incorporate some of Barrys stuff and use it in support of your oddsline making exercises. After 3-4 months of this, then do a review on the available software and try out some different packages. At that time, you will be in a much better position to make a good software decision for yourself.

Everybody wants to jump right in at the beginning and cozy up to a software package... I think this is dangerous! It's too easy to get lulled into the "black box" myth and mentality and stop learning and THINKING for ourselves. Learn to take a race apart on paper... picture in your mind how it's likely to be run ... the possible pace scenarios and variations.

Be patient and good to yourself. Take time to go through this. It will pay off many, many times over. Remember, the races are not going anywhere.

Good luck,

[midnight]

The Multicaps oddsline isn't that good, imo. The last time I looked at it, it didn't generate a true (100%) odds line, and the odds it generated didn't seem realistic. It's certainly not something I'd compare to tote odds with the purpose of finding value.

[garyoz]

First, welcome vidpokbob. An odds line generated by software is a tough nut. I've "collected" alot of software over the years. I don't think any of the Bris software does a very good job. Allways has a truly terrible oddsline. As stated, Multicaps has its own problems. My experience with the oddsline generated by Synergism was perhaps the best. Maybe some of the HTR guys can comment on Ken's latest changes to that program. I think he has improved the oddsline.

I think the best oddsline comes from the individual handicapper's experience and is generated in his/her head and software is best used to complement that process rather than drive that process.

[vidpokbob]

Thx to all for their input. I am sure that I will someday develop my own oddslines based on my own criteria, but for now, I'll continue using "pre-packaged" lines and apply handicapping on those as well.

As for my original inquiry (which category yields the best fair-odds-line, FOL), I found some time and dug deeper into the 'Caps software (was MultiCaps, now ProCaps from TSN because of the package deal that includes unlimited data files). I noticed that the 23 available factors group themselves into 5 reports (ability, total pace, pace, FPS1 and FPS2) that cover the big 3 : speed, pace, class. So, I print out the 5 reports and - BAM - I've got 3 FOLs.

What next ? I could average the sum, but that means I think each factor carries equal weight, which flies into the face of all other thinking that certain factors contribute more than others. So, I decide to start with the "old standard" of 40% speed, 30% pace and 30% class.

I weight the individual FOLs, then average that sum. Next, convert odds to their %ages. Then, add the %ages together and, based on that total, "normalize" down to 100%. Finally, convert those %ages back to odds.

Now comes the "expensive" part and that is "field-testing" these FOLs with real $$$$ on real races; guess I'll start with Philly Park first and then expand to other tracks.

Thx again ; keep picking winners !

[midnight]

You could download the past seven or so days (you can fetch all the Procaps files in sight if you're on that value plan) and see how it works without betting a dime.

HTR has an excellent oddsline called Kline, and database checks of the line show a solid consistency between Kline and the chances of winning. For example, in the last 45 days of my HTR database, horses with Kline (which is carried out to several decimal places) between 2.8 and 3.2 (mean of 3) yield 3198 plays and 779 winners, for 24.4%, which is close to the theoretical 25%. Horses between 8.0 and 10.0 yield 7145 horses and 673 winners, or 9.4% (10% theoretical).

Before anybody goes running to Ken to subscribe, with the idea of playing all the tote overlays, it isn't that easy. The Kline offers a very accurate odds-line, but it doesn't do so independent of the tote odds. For example, the horses between 2.8 and 3.2 that go off at tote odds of 1.95-1 (9-5) or lower yields 935 plays, 347 winners, 36.8%, ROI of 0.84. The same Kline range at tote odds of 4.0 (4-1) or higher yields 806 plays, 109 winners, 13.5%, ROI of 0.92. The same basic thing occurs at odds ranges up and down the scale. Kline is valuable, since the overlays do better ROI wise, but the public is still a pretty accurate handicapper on an everyday, every-race basis.

The point is that if a computer-generated odds line such as HTR's Kline, which is proven to be very accurate, can't find overlays as a standalone method, then the one in Multicaps---or any other one---probably won't be able to, either. It's just not that easy. You still have to do the work on each race and use your own judgement on what constitutes a good bet.