andicap
09-08-2005, 01:14 PM
I wonder what methods people here use to determine if a horse is ready to fire his "best" shot. That may not mean a lifetime top/peak effort. For an older horse it really means a return to a relatively recent peak.
Of course there are trainer patterns, horses running well after running against a bias, strong workouts, etc. (a nice 5f work).
What positive aspects of form do you look for as a tip-off to a peak race?
For me,
I look for E, EP or P run style horses who raced respectably -- or even an apparently poor race but there was SOMETHING positive about it, some move within the race, even 1/8 of a mile-- if the pace was especially hot.
(REDBOARd ALERT -- I didn't bet the race -- illustrative purposes only)
On Sept. 2, SAR 2nd race, Show Ready won at 6-1 (see attached snapshot) after a decent race against a strong pace (See the 106 pace figure in HTR under the jockey's name.). Last race on turf is good because of its forgiving surface. The other speed in the race had inferior F1 figs. The 8-5 chalk was dropping off a claim, a 63-day layoff, and going from Prado to Fragaso.
Of course there are trainer patterns, horses running well after running against a bias, strong workouts, etc. (a nice 5f work).
What positive aspects of form do you look for as a tip-off to a peak race?
For me,
I look for E, EP or P run style horses who raced respectably -- or even an apparently poor race but there was SOMETHING positive about it, some move within the race, even 1/8 of a mile-- if the pace was especially hot.
(REDBOARd ALERT -- I didn't bet the race -- illustrative purposes only)
On Sept. 2, SAR 2nd race, Show Ready won at 6-1 (see attached snapshot) after a decent race against a strong pace (See the 106 pace figure in HTR under the jockey's name.). Last race on turf is good because of its forgiving surface. The other speed in the race had inferior F1 figs. The 8-5 chalk was dropping off a claim, a 63-day layoff, and going from Prado to Fragaso.