A GAME PLAN

[karlskorner]

http://www.todaysracingdigest.com/data/files/gameplan.pdf

I like #7 especially, as I hae been saying for years "Tomorrow is another day" it's never bad to take your profit and leave "early" rather than risk it on races you hadn't planned to play in the first place

[OTM Al]

Common sense makes the best sense sometimes. Any beginner should read that list before making their first bet and long time bettors can use it to remind themselves about solid play.

[kingfin66]

All the of the info makes sense. Sticking too it is hard to do for some, but it make sense. Thanks Karl.

[oddswizard]

I agree on quitting when you have reached a pre-determined profit goal for the day. You earn a fair profit for the day and it helps your confidence level as a handicapper. Here is my game plan: I normally play 2 tracks per day. I list all of my top 3 contenders for each race at each track on a typed out page. I also list the races I am passing on, races that are too competivive
or wide open. At the bottom of the page I list the races by number horizontally. 1 2 3 etc.
Then I look at the list and cross off the number of each race I am going to pass. This tells me which races I will pass and which races are playable, subject to the odds. A quick look at the bottom of the page tells me I can or cannot play pick 3's, the pick 4 & the pick 6. I strongly agree with the boy scout motto "Be Prepared.

[andicap]

I agree on quitting when you have reached a pre-determined profit goal for the day. You earn a fair profit for the day and it helps your confidence level as a handicapper. Here is my game plan: I normally play 2 tracks per day. I list all of my top 3 contenders for each race at each track on a typed out page. I also list the races I am passing on, races that are too competivive
or wide open. At the bottom of the page I list the races by number horizontally. 1 2 3 etc.
Then I look at the list and cross off the number of each race I am going to pass. This tells me which races I will pass and which races are playable, subject to the odds. A quick look at the bottom of the page tells me I can or cannot play pick 3's, the pick 4 & the pick 6. I strongly agree with the boy scout motto "Be Prepared.

That's an excellent prep method, but (and we've been through this ad nauseum on this board) it seems like lunacy to leave after the 5th race just because you've reached your target for the day when you might have a great bet in the 8th race. You need to have days where you exceed your goals in order to make up for the losing days.

I can see that strategy as an exercise in discipline for those just starting out or who have in the past not been able to exercise restraint playing with house money. Its not like craps, however, where you leave when ahead because the odds are against you in the end. If you're a good handicapper the odds will be with you at the track.

But in the end, punters have to recognize a day at the track is not a single self-contained unit but just more races in a long continuum that makes up the sum of your bets.

[karlskorner]

I guess a paycheck at the end of the week/month (whatever ) is the difference between lunacy and common sense. There is a difference between black and white or night and day and keeping what you came for. Or continue plays because you have a "possible" lock in the 8th. Think about it for a moment, if you chucked your employment and desided to " go for it " would you still consider it lunacy.tp stop while you are ahead ? Scary thought, isn't it.

[JackS]

I don't dissagree with anyones stratagy, if it works it works. Personally I stay for the complete days races and try to find a way to play everyone of them. In short fields it may become an automatic P3/4 if no value appears. The key for me is avoiding increasing the size of my bet when I'm ahead and decreasing the bet size when I'm behind.
It seems to me if your playing within the limits of your bankroll and can maintain a positive attitude that in the longrun you will come out ahead, the number of races you play are meaningless ie- If only one race were offered on a daily basis and your total bankroll was $100, bet the entire $100 into that one race. If you lose, you have got to be willing to do the samething tomorrow and the day after etc,etc. With ten races offered and using the same bankroll ,a $10 max bet should be made in every race.
The potential for large profits comes automatic with the single $100 bet but coupled with the potential large losses before getting more than even for the losing days. The $10 for 10 races not only allows for a great deal of pleasure but allows you to theoretically equal the single $100 play.
I know this is not the only managament stratagy and others may be as good or better but this is the way I like it.

[Overlay]

There is a difference between black and white or night and day and keeping what you came for. Or continue plays because you have a "possible" lock in the 8th. Think about it for a moment, if you chucked your employment and desided to " go for it " would you still consider it lunacy.tp stop while you are ahead ? Scary thought, isn't it.

I understand what you're saying, since there's always a strong temptation to take the money and run. But if you achieved your early profit not by a hit-and-miss procedure, but by a consistent, methodical approach that had a proven record of success; that was capable of being duplicated from race to race; and (especially) that worked with the probabilities of the game rather than against them (i.e., that was firmly based on fundamental factors, and that gave you betting value on every wager), why wouldn't you keep playing, since every wager would enhance your chances of further increasing your winnings?

[PaceAdvantage]

Obviously, one should keep playing as long as one's method continues to identify bettable races on the day's card.

Leaving just because you've made your "day's pay" essentially tells us your method isn't very sound. If it was, you'd trust it to continue on, IF INDEED you have other PLAYABLE races on the card.

The horses in the last race of the day have no idea you've already made your "day's pay." They are going to run exactly the same, whether or not you're in the grandstand, or at home counting your "day's pay."

If your method works, and it identifies a potential wager in the last race of the day, there is no reason on earth you shouldn't wager on that race.

As I've already stated, your method of selecting wagers has no idea how much money you are up or down at any given point in time. Neither do the horses and jockeys that are running around the track in the nightcap....

Believing otherwise is akin to voodoo.....

[dav4463]

I read #7 as those where you don't risk money on races you haven't already handicapped....(hadn't planned to play in the first place). I think they mean you go to the track to play 6 races ...you play those 6 and make some cash so you decide to buy another racing form and start handicapping the late night races that you didn't even look at the day before.

I've done it before. I remember playing Lone Star live racing....having a good time (party in the park !)...and making $400 and not ready to go home....so we walk over to the simulcast building and buy a program for Los Alamitos and proceed to blow $150 on quarter horses....not only did I not handicap them the night before....I never handicap the quarters...and here I am thinking I am going to win.

[karlskorner]

All well and good and it sounds logical, BUT, re-read Joe Takach's 13 articles. HALF THE RACE IS OUT OF YOUR CONTROL. Takach is telling you about the real world of racing. HALF THE RACE IS OUT OF YOUR CONTROL.
Regardless of how good your method is, it's not good enough. Take your profit, as tomorrow is another day.

[PaceAdvantage]

You know, I'm going to back track a bit off my last post and state that if it works for you, then who the hell am I to argue against it.....

Carry on....

[karlskorner]

THANK YOU

[oddswizard]

After reaching a daily profit goal I am very content to go home a winner and not risk losing my profits in later races. Playing after reaching your daily goal promotes gambling, not investments. At my racing seminars I always ask the audience "How many of you have won a race or several races early in the day and went home even or lost at the end of the day?" Virtually everyone in the audience raises their hands and laugh. What they really want is action,
not profits. From a mathamatical standpoint it makes sense to keep playing. In reality it does not. It may not be for everyone, but quitting after reaching a daily goal is several times more profitable than to continue playing. Most handicappers simply do not have the discipline to quit. They think like gamblers-not investors. Food for Thought.

[cj]

A disciplined bettor with an edge over the game gives away money by leaving the table early, if he doesn't overdo it and begin to lose focus. I like to set a time limit, but it has nothing to do with whether I've won or lost for a day.

Actually, measuring winning and losing by the day doesn't really make much sense either for me. It can also lead to pressing later in the day. It's just too short of a time span. Also, I keep hearing about quitting while you are ahead, but then how do you know when it is time to quit when you are losing? I know that Karl has never had a losing day, but for most handicappers, even winners, they happen. Do you keep playing until the last t-bred race at Los Al? When you've reached your ATM withdrawal limit? I'd really like to hear the opposite side of this coin. Knowing when to quit on a bad day is much more valuable than knowing when to quit when you are winning.

How many of those bettors won several races early in the day, then hit a large trifecta on the last race of the card? I bet you didn't even ask that question!

[JimG]

Quitting for awhile during the day is real easy when playing from home. To answer CJ's question, I quit playing when I lose a couple of real close photo finishes, or I have something else I need to do.

As an example, yesterday I played from about 3:00pm to 4:00pm, missed 4 races badly, did not "feel right", so I did some things around the house. Decided to play again around 9:00pm until about 10:30p.m and had a very good evening (including the largest win payoff I have ever hit in my life) but started getting tired so I quit. I don't use a racing form much any more so computer software allows me to fit playing into my time, whenever that may be during the day. I get contenders quickly and shop for value.

Jim

PS...regarding quitting while your ahead a set amount, I think it is a good idea if a person cannot quit while winning during the day. There are many losers at the otb that I used to attend that could not quit while ahead. Unfortunately, many years ago I was one of them. Now I only look at win/losses from a long term perspective. One day means nothing to me, win or lose.