Losing streaks

[baravot]

Here's a topic I'd like to toss out for discussion: how realistic a goal is it to try to eliminate losing streaks? Are they just an inevitable fact of life in this game? If so, what are some of the strategies you use to shorten them, deal with them psychologically, etc. All feedback is welcome.

[Dave Schwartz]

Baravot,

LOL - I'd love to eliminate losing streaks.

Reminds me of a guy that told me he had a fool-proof system for beating blackjack... never lose 2 hands in a row. (Oh, okay.)

Seriously, I know what you mean. That is one of the main objective of money management strategies... to adjust the balance between big hits and big losses to something that fits your personality... and still provides profit.

[JimG]

I take time off when the horses I select and choose to bet become affected by a losing streak. When winning becomes more important than making money it is time for me to take a break. In fact I took one from Nov until this past March.

Jim

[Dave Schwartz]

Jim,

November to March! That's not a "break." That's a career change. <G>

[Rick Ransom]

Of course you can raise your win percentage somehow, by betting multiple horses in a race or betting to place or show. However, you'd better make sure you're very good before you try that. It actually makes sense in some cases to bet two (or more) horses even if one of them is a small loser on flat bets because of how much safer your bankroll is with a higher win %. But, for most players it is difficult enough just to find one overlay.

Most winning players start at lower win percentages and higher payoffs, resulting in longer losing streaks. Unfortunately, the general rule is: the more specific the bet, the higher ROI for a given method. For example, I can play Pick 3's and exactas on every race and show a profit, but I'll only have about 2-3 profitable win bets a day in 8-9 races. I could play them to place also, but my profit would be negligible.

In the past, when favorites lost a lot less on the average, there were some pros who specialized in playing favorites to place and made maybe 10% profit with 70% hit rate, but that is much more difficult now. The best bets these days seem to be in medium-priced horses.

To you guys who have done better than this: understand that I'm not saying that you didn't do it or it's impossible to do it. I just think that it's better for a player to have lower expectations until he's proven otherwise. Experience is very important in this game and I don't want to see anyone get hurt by expecting too much too early. Most of the guys I've known who were winners had over 20 years of experience. I don't think it's a coincidence.

That being said, I think that the younger guys with large databases now might be able to do it more quickly. However, you have to avoid some of the nasty fallacies that have frustrated statisticians, economists, actuaries, financial market researchers, and others for decades. Read all you can about prediction and how you can fool yourself. Good luck!