To Class Handicappers.

[Fastracehorse]

I believe adjusted speed figures have class innately built into them.

What does class measure?? What does pace measure?? I could argue that: pace = class = speed = ability.

Sometimes we use different vernacular to describe the same thing.

I'm not trying to tell anybody anything they already know - it is just my belief.

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

I think speed figures adjusted for pace take some aspects of class into account, but not all. Assume 2 horses with similar adjusted speed figures.

Do they take stamina in account?

One horse may have finished a race fully extended and exhausted and the other migth have been able to continue running at the same rate for another furlong. If the pace was a little tougher, which of those 2 do you think would win?

Do they take versatility into account?

One horse may be able to win from on or off the pace, inside or outside horses, on a greater variety of track conditions etc....


Do they take acceleration into account?

One horse may be able to throw in a 22 in the middle of the race to get into position and the other may be more even paced.

Do they take determination into account?

One horse may relish competitive stretch drives and give his all and other may quit as soon as he's pressed.

I could go on.

I think in general, as you move up the ladder, not only are the horses faster (adjusted for pace), but they also posses greater quantities of these intangibles that allow them to beat horses with similar speed figures earned against lower quality horses.

[Princequillo]

I think speed figures adjusted for pace take some aspects of class into account, but not all. Assume 2 horses with similar adjusted speed figures.

Do they take stamina in account?

One horse may have finished a race fully extended and exhausted and the other migth have been able to continue running at the same rate for another furlong. If the pace was a little tougher, which of those 2 do you think would win?

Do they take versatility into account?

One horse may be able to win from on or off the pace, inside or outside horses, on a greater variety of track conditions etc....


Do they take acceleration into account?

One horse may be able to throw in a 22 in the middle of the race to get into position and the other may be more even paced.

Do they take determination into account?

One horse may relish competitive stretch drives and give his all and other may quit as soon as he's pressed.

I could go on.

I think in general, as you move up the ladder, not only are the horses faster (adjusted for pace), but they also posses greater quantities of these intangibles that allow them to beat horses with similar speed figures earned against lower quality horses.

Stamina, versatility, determination, acceleration, stretch drive - you have just described Afleet Alex, the icon of class.

On the pace I left out because except for his maiden and 2nd race against cheaper, his move is late on the turn. But I do believe he could handle the best sprinters around. Also, maybe the best turf horses.

[Ron]

Who handicaps taking only one factor into consideration?

[michiken]

Class = ability to 1) over come or set the pace 2) ability to reproduce consistent speed figures i.e ruling out 'cheap speed'.

[Vegas711]

Class = ability to 1) over come or set the pace 2) ability to reproduce consistent speed figures i.e ruling out 'cheap speed'.

Where do you go to school to become a pace engineer???:lol: :lol: :lol:


I absolutely love it, it made my day. Very original.......

[michiken]

Several courses were required to become a pace engineer:

1. The Ray Taulbot School of Hard Knocks including an old subsciption to American Turf Monthly.

2. Handicapping Cheap Claimers at Detroit Race Course including Dad's tutorial of how 'Not to pick em'.

3. Homework courses from Brohammers Pace Makes the Race including programming a TI Calculator.

4. Field trips to Arlington, Beulah, Woodbine, Loiusianna Downs. (No permission slip required from the parents!)

5. Redboard school of speed figure analysis including database programming.

6. Growing up a block from the track and going to watch morning workouts with my Aunt (don't ask).

7. Buying a 8086 computer to get on the old Prodigy Bulletin Boards.

Of course these courses were all elective and funded by a 4 year BSME from Michigan Technological University....................

:cool:

[Fastracehorse]

No single factor in handicapping can catapult you to financial stardom betting every race ( MOST KNOW THIS ).

However, it is possible to be in the black using speed figures - probably more so than Class 'capping.

An over-simplification of class handicapping is: Evaluating horses based on the company they have recently run with. That is much easier to do for the average person than developing a speed figure.

A great example of the utility of a speed figure is the following: If a horse is over-matched in a higher class I can still assign a good estimation of his ability. Class handicapper just knows that he drops.


All the intangibles we talk about are inherently irrelevant when we are talking one-factor analysis of a horse race. As, I would need a superior speed figure to jump on a horse based on that knowledge.

fffastt

[classhandicapper]

No single factor in handicapping can catapult you to financial stardom betting every race ( MOST KNOW THIS ).

A great example of the utility of a speed figure is the following: If a horse is over-matched in a higher class I can still assign a good estimation of his ability. Class handicapper just knows that he drops.

All the intangibles we talk about are inherently irrelevant when we are talking one-factor analysis of a horse race. As, I would need a superior speed figure to jump on a horse based on that knowledge.

fffastt

A good class handicapper can easily evaluate an overmatched horse that is dropping in class by looking at the form of the specific horses he beat and/or finished close to within that race.

I am talking about situations where it is very obvious that the fastest horse is not the best horse.

[Fastracehorse]

"A good class handicapper can easily evaluate an overmatched horse that is dropping in class............."

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don't think this is always easy - in fact droppers make alot of races contentious.

This is true even with a numerical assignment.

fffastt