DrugSalvastore
09-06-2005, 03:24 AM
I guess a lot of smart people seem to have no idea how to put good information to use in the handicapping game. This quote is from a poster here named Cato. I brought up that on July 14th at Belmont Park every dirt race was won in wire-to-wire fashion.
Cato writes:
"This does seem like vital information and the question I've always had is how do you best convert this into money? That is how quickly do you jump on a bias? Let's look at the charts for the 14th
The first race was a 5 furlong race and won Wire to Wire (WW) at 6.40 odds. Interesting but nothing to bet on yet (?) at least for me. I expect a 5 F race to be won early
2d race was a 7F race won WW at 8.70 odds. Maybe you have something. I am normally surprised when a 7 f race is won WW by a higher odds horse.
3rd race was a 6 F race won WW at 3.55 odds.
Okay, I am a believer and load up on any medium or higher priced horse who looks like they can get the lead in the 4th race (a 5F race). Although the winner ran WW, sadly it was a favorite at .85 odds
5th and 6th races are turf.
SO now I am wild to find an early horse in the 7th. Again a horse wins wire to wire and pays at 1.10 odds.
SO while I think this is great information the question is still how do you convert it to money? If you identify an early speed track bias after one race that seems a bit premature, but if you waited 3 races then you pretty much lose out."
I think it is a massive folly to look at this the way Cato did. This may shock some people--but I don't even really adjust my handicapping that much when it looks like a track bias is unfolding. Often times, jockeys and trainers become hip to the fact that a bias is in play, and horses are warmed up more aggresivley in the post parade, and often hustled early on to be on or near the lead, thus creating pace situations that can offset a speed bias.
HERE IS A SIMPLE WAY HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY OFF THIS SPEED BIAS. Look through the charts for a slow paced race on the day of the speed bias. In the second race that day, you have a seven furlong sprint where the pace went 24.2 and 48.2 early. A horse named Bandit Nailhead was racing last after a quarter of a mile and closed nicely into the slow pace to finish 3rd. He was the only horse, all day long, to run a nice race while closing from last.
So, we have a horse who ran for 20K, he was racing in last early on, through slow fractions, over a very speed-biased race track--yet he closes nicely for 3rd place.
He is entered back eight day later, and dropped in class into a 14K claimer. He gets a positive jockey switch from a struggling Jorge Chavez to leading rider at the meet Edgar Prado. He's nearly 5-to-1 on the toteboard and dammit we are going to make money on this horse!! He wins by 1 3/4 lengths, and pays $11.80 to win. The two obvious horses in the race, 2-to-1 shot Joshua's Jet and even-money Ginzano run 2nd and 3rd. The exacta comes back $40.60 and WE MAKE REAL NICE MONEY ON THIS RACE!!
Bandit Nailhead improved his beyer figure something like 13 points in the win, it's amazing how a horse can improve when he doesn't have to deal with trying to close from last, into a slow pace, over a VERY speed biased track! The drop-in-class and switch to the leading rider were just bonuses. The horse didn't run any better that day--he just didn't have everything in the world against him like he did in his previous start.
Cato writes:
"This does seem like vital information and the question I've always had is how do you best convert this into money? That is how quickly do you jump on a bias? Let's look at the charts for the 14th
The first race was a 5 furlong race and won Wire to Wire (WW) at 6.40 odds. Interesting but nothing to bet on yet (?) at least for me. I expect a 5 F race to be won early
2d race was a 7F race won WW at 8.70 odds. Maybe you have something. I am normally surprised when a 7 f race is won WW by a higher odds horse.
3rd race was a 6 F race won WW at 3.55 odds.
Okay, I am a believer and load up on any medium or higher priced horse who looks like they can get the lead in the 4th race (a 5F race). Although the winner ran WW, sadly it was a favorite at .85 odds
5th and 6th races are turf.
SO now I am wild to find an early horse in the 7th. Again a horse wins wire to wire and pays at 1.10 odds.
SO while I think this is great information the question is still how do you convert it to money? If you identify an early speed track bias after one race that seems a bit premature, but if you waited 3 races then you pretty much lose out."
I think it is a massive folly to look at this the way Cato did. This may shock some people--but I don't even really adjust my handicapping that much when it looks like a track bias is unfolding. Often times, jockeys and trainers become hip to the fact that a bias is in play, and horses are warmed up more aggresivley in the post parade, and often hustled early on to be on or near the lead, thus creating pace situations that can offset a speed bias.
HERE IS A SIMPLE WAY HOW YOU CAN MAKE MONEY OFF THIS SPEED BIAS. Look through the charts for a slow paced race on the day of the speed bias. In the second race that day, you have a seven furlong sprint where the pace went 24.2 and 48.2 early. A horse named Bandit Nailhead was racing last after a quarter of a mile and closed nicely into the slow pace to finish 3rd. He was the only horse, all day long, to run a nice race while closing from last.
So, we have a horse who ran for 20K, he was racing in last early on, through slow fractions, over a very speed-biased race track--yet he closes nicely for 3rd place.
He is entered back eight day later, and dropped in class into a 14K claimer. He gets a positive jockey switch from a struggling Jorge Chavez to leading rider at the meet Edgar Prado. He's nearly 5-to-1 on the toteboard and dammit we are going to make money on this horse!! He wins by 1 3/4 lengths, and pays $11.80 to win. The two obvious horses in the race, 2-to-1 shot Joshua's Jet and even-money Ginzano run 2nd and 3rd. The exacta comes back $40.60 and WE MAKE REAL NICE MONEY ON THIS RACE!!
Bandit Nailhead improved his beyer figure something like 13 points in the win, it's amazing how a horse can improve when he doesn't have to deal with trying to close from last, into a slow pace, over a VERY speed biased track! The drop-in-class and switch to the leading rider were just bonuses. The horse didn't run any better that day--he just didn't have everything in the world against him like he did in his previous start.