early horse

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys there are a lot of race's that have all early type's E or E\P.These race's can be quite confuseing.As to who style benifit's who surprized how many E type's win with out a fraction advantage.Do you guy's have any approach that can help solve who has a edge.

[Tom]

Look to see if there one horse who is the speed of the speed-one that will certainly get the lead and leave the others to run outside their comfort zones. Look to see which ones can duel and survive-the worst early horse is the one who never hits the board when challenged. I think " 2-hd 1-hd 1-hd 2-1/2"
is more impressive that " 1-2 1-4 1-5 1-1 " Also look for the E/P that can rally from 2-3 lengths back - it might set up nicely for him. A trick Doc Sartin taught mewas to look at the 3rd fractions of the early horse when it wins-is is usually in slow time? Is it good enough today?

[BIG HIT]

And amen to the melman in his above post.

[Rick]

E/P's seem to be more reliable to bet on because of their versatility. They can lead or close (but not from too far back). I think that's the same as what Tom's saying. War Emblem is a good example of this in my opinion, but others may classify him as an E type. The jury is still out but it may be resolved for sure in the Belmont.

[Handle]

Big Hit,

I'm hoping that it depends not just on the particular contestants (as all races do), but on the particular type of race as well.
For example, given a Maiden Claimer sprint at FG for 15K, who wins this type of "speed laiden" race more often -- the E or the E/P? Is it different from the MSW sprint at FG? I track this sort of thing, but haven't been doing it long enough to provide an answer.

-Handle

PS -- do you notice that S's in these races, rather than having an advantage, are often out run and never reach contention? Of course, I'm not talking about stand outs (favorites that look to have and edge in ability) that come off the pace, but contestants that are more or less average for the field. Also -- I'm obviously referring to only 1, maybe 2 such contestants given the type of race we're talking about!

[alyingthief]

as to e-type horses: several factors enter the equation that seem extraneous to pace analysis, but in fact aren't.
a. the jockey can make a BIG difference, a clown that lags at the gate, or has weak hands can take his mount out of the race.
b. despite having an apparent advantage in quickness, a horse with inferior class is less likely to wrest the lead--running an apv (or whatever class number de jour) on your contenders will much more often than not point at the leader(s) most likely to survive the first call.
c. layoffs are less likely to endure a contentious pace. all those 1's in the first fraction can be (quite usually are) a thing of the past. the longer the layoff, the less probable the horse to be there at the end, or even at the first call. a lot of handicappers err in accepting the expert's layoff guidelines, IMO: i know my tracks vary among themselves, a lot of times by surface and by season, and by which trainers will or will not (not just can or cannot) bring a horse back ready to run after a lay-off. as an aside, i have obtained a lot of overlays by betting against horses in their second and third races after LO that ron ellis brings back to win at first outing. you'd be amazed how many of these never win another race. IMO, mr. ellis jr. is a butcher.

i have also found that failing to analyze all the fractions of all the horses against today's probable pace is a big boo-boo. this is very true in those all-E, E/P, P type races.

[BIG HIT]

You guy's are a great help and thank's agian some time's just need you guy's to help get me thinking a little differently

[Rick]

Thief,

Do you have a good way to rate jockeys as to ability with different running types? I know BRIS provides some stats to this effect, but I haven't found a good way to use them yet. I'm positive that there's a real difference in ability, but the usual stats may not be accurate enough to detect it.