View Full Version : Tough meet for Dan Illman
Meet's Win/Loss: -$94.60 for $2 base wager
I know these races are tough, and I almost never play them. But didn't this guy write a book about betting maidens and 2yos?
andicap
09-04-2005, 05:53 AM
Are those stats just based on maiden races?
Anyone can have a bad meet -- I give him credit for letting his record hang out there for all to see. As opposed to a certain pedigree expert who likes to redboard in print about how handicappers should have had a certain well-paying winner based on breeding.
I think he gives extensive analysis of all the 2yo races run at the meet, maiden and non-maiden alike.
Brad Free and Dave Litfin are losing money as well, but could still pull it out late.
blind squirrel
09-04-2005, 06:12 AM
speaking of DRF handicapping authors,the last several years DAVE
LITFIN{EXPERT HANDICAPPING,REAL LIFE HANDICAPPING} and
BRAD FREE{HANDICAPPING101}have bet $50 a day at their
respective meets.
i always enjoy following along to see how they arrive at their
selections.usually find a couple of good horses to watch at HOL and bel.
this year:FREE DMR..minus 218.80
LITFIN SAR .minus 110.50
i guess it's a bad year for handicapping authors.
The only thing I haven't liked is that a lot of their bets this year have been "no plays" because they put unreasonable cutoffs for their bet. Such as saying minimum odds to bet have to be 5-2 when any clown in the grandstand knew the horse would be 7 to 5 or so. Also, the problem with trying to bet like that, just as in real life, is you don't really know the final odds when you bet. Other than that, it is fun to follow.
PaceAdvantage
09-04-2005, 06:05 PM
It's funny that they don't track the ROI in the NYRA program anymore. What is Dave Litfin so afraid of? Heck, Mike Sherack and Kelly G. weren't afraid....why is Dave Litfin?
Good to see someone is keeping an eye out on these "names".....
I like to read Dave Litfin for comments and bits of information, but his picks are as good as Beyers! ;) They should read each other's books!
exactajack
09-04-2005, 08:12 PM
Not a Beyer fan. Never was and never will be. It was said by Harvey Pack at the Siros seminar tht Andy Beyer took down the pick six Sat for 178k. Who knows for sure.
Not a Beyer fan. Never was and never will be. It was said by Harvey Pack at the Siros seminar tht Andy Beyer took down the pick six Sat for 178k. Who knows for sure.
Didn't he credit Harvey Pack for one of the horses?
WINMANWIN
09-05-2005, 12:40 PM
Not a Beyer fan. Never was and never will be. It was said by Harvey Pack at the Siros seminar tht Andy Beyer took down the pick six Sat for 178k. Who knows for sure.
I wonder how many partners Andy has when he plays the carryover's. I'm sure if we were in a circle with Pick 6 players, we can get lucky also.
Didn't he credit Harvey Pack for one of the horses?
BTW---DRF CAPPER NOEL MICHAELS I believe touted Beyer to that 2 year old winner in the feature. Noel made a good case for the steed, on the SIRO'S seminar, and Andy gave credit to Noel.
the little guy
09-06-2005, 01:19 PM
Not a Beyer fan. Never was and never will be. It was said by Harvey Pack at the Siros seminar tht Andy Beyer took down the pick six Sat for 178k. Who knows for sure.While I cannot give you the extensive list of who knows for " sure " I can tell you that I do.
As for the question about his partners....I am almost certain he had none, and if he did they were extremely minor.
I will add something else about Andy Beyer....when I was alive in ( and ultimately hit ) a substantial Pick-6 earlier in the year at Aqueduct, NOBODY was more excited for me than Beyer ( and he was NOT a partner of mine ). He called me repeatedly between the last few legs and was absolutely the first person to congratulate me on the win. In a game filled with petty jealousies, Andy Beyer rises above the crowd in his support of his friends.
I'll never really understand the Beyer bashing, the guy has done more good for the average horseplayer than any man alive. If the other supposed writers tackled the issues Andy does, the sport would be way better off.
He's also a pretty darn good bettor. Not handicapper, though I'm sure he is adequate, but he knows how to fill out a ticket.
GMB@BP
09-06-2005, 04:39 PM
I'll never really understand the Beyer bashing, the guy has done more good for the average horseplayer than any man alive. If the other supposed writers tackled the issues Andy does, the sport would be way better off.
He's also a pretty darn good bettor. Not handicapper, though I'm sure he is adequate, but he knows how to fill out a ticket.
I agree, and we have discussed this on your site, the people the do usually dont have a fundemental understanding of his figures. I dont always agree with his articles or figures, but his prowess as a player is absolutely legit.
Fastracehorse
09-06-2005, 04:45 PM
You and I are on the same page about Beyer.
I think when you are a new player he has alot to offer. As you gain maturity over the years you realize he is only a good player.
Further, Beyer is great for the game. He's not afraid to chastize horse betting syndicates for cheating or trainers for using illicits. He has helped investigators make arrests in the past.
I like the guy and his figure - their imperfections are expected.
fffastt
Fastracehorse
09-06-2005, 04:51 PM
I do know Free was in the red at Del Mar last season as well.
It is just funny, that's all.
fffastt
GMB@BP
09-06-2005, 04:54 PM
I do know Free was in the red at Del Mar last season as well.
It is just funny, that's all.
fffastt
I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
Fastracehorse
09-06-2005, 05:07 PM
I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
====================================
Shouldn't a bet a day be a good evaluation of someone's ability?? It is his day's best.
Of course, there are some cards where there are no high-% plays - but over an entire DMR meet he might want to come close to even - afterall, alot of people notice.
fffastt
GMB@BP
09-06-2005, 05:10 PM
I dont think posting a bet a day is a very good analysis of a players true ability. I certainly dont play with preconcieved notions of a bet the night before. I might have a horse or two I really like but that really may be irrelevent come post time.
====================================
Shouldn't a bet a day be a good evaluation of someone's ability?? It is his day's best.
Of course, there are some cards where there are no high-% plays - but over an entire DMR meet he might want to come close to even - afterall, alot of people notice.
fffastt
how do you know what the public is going to do? I mean take monday at saratoga for example, the fifth race was a crap statebred mdn, I had the 4 and 5 pretty equally rated, one was like 4/1 morning the the 5 was 6/1....5 goes of at 14/1 so I bet him, got out with a profit on a day that I hated the card and most of my opinions were wrong. You cant convey that in any type of way.
Brad Free is a very good player, I have no doubts about that. I dont know dan illman at all.
Valuist
09-06-2005, 05:14 PM
Dealing with a bunch of mostly unraced 2YO maidens, its not an enviable position to try to pick winners in these crapshoots.
These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
GMB@BP
09-06-2005, 05:19 PM
These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
If I was doing it I would pick two or three contentious races, make on odds line and tell them to bet the horse with the best overlay based on that line. If none then pass.
Tough meet for Gary Stevens. ;)
These guys did put odds on the horses they selected, such as need at least 3-1 to bet, etc.
Litfin did cash the last day to show a modest profit for the meet, a good job in my opinion.
Yeah, and it seemed like a lot of times that the odds on the horse went below his minimum, the horse would win!
GR1@HTR
09-06-2005, 11:53 PM
I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
BillW
09-06-2005, 11:58 PM
I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
Irishladstable did as documented in another thread. He's a pick-um guy although not with the visibility of the Form guys.
PaceAdvantage
09-07-2005, 02:35 AM
I usually don't keep up with those pickum guys but every time I have checked they have a negative ROI. Seriously...have any of them produced a consistent positive ROI picking every race?
Many public handicappers can produce a positive meet every now and then....it's not all that uncommon....but it isn't easy....
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