Senza Aglio-CJ FIGS

[BetHorses!]

Today's 5th at Saratoga

Been checking out CJ's free figs and I noticed this horse came back to his top. This is a pattern on the "sheets" that can be a signal of a possible explosive move forward, curious if there is any data on this move with CJ's numbers. Horse won at 16-1

Thanks

[cj]

I definitely look for "Sheets" type moves, its one of the reasons I graph the figures with my program.

[Achilles]

I don't have the PP's, so I'm looking only at the free figs too. What exactly was the sheets style move here? I see consistent figs at the distance, but still lower than others. The horse does not appear to be forging upward, and there's a tripling up of figs at the distance and surface, which would make me wonder about a possible drop off this time, rather than an improvement. I could do with some enlightenment here. Thanks.

[Storm Cadet]

and I'll tell you if he was sitting on a big one or just pairing up.

Send me his last 4 running lines (not final CJ figs) but complete lines as I did not download Fri PDF's on Buddha's Comodore 64 and my IBM punch card printer yet!

Send me his complete lines or post here for all to see!!!

[cj]

Here are the PPs from yesterday, I only have the FireFox version, so if you view in IE the formatting won't be great.

http://www.pacefigures.com/sar050902


I didn't look at this race, was just commenting that I do like Sheets type moves. I'm even more interested in "Blinkers Off" type moves to be honest.

In this race, it would appear to me the winner was very likely to enjoy the 7f a lot more than some of the lower odds horses. For example, the 1 had a 96 pace, 62 speed shape at 6f...not exactly a good sign for a stretch to 7f. If I had been betting the 6 would have been my most likely winner, but too low to bet. The 5 would have got my interest for sure at that price despite the bad connections.

[keilan]

I just finished capping the 5th and MARKED the 3-6-8 as my contenders FWIW. I don't publicly discuss cj's numbers but the answer to your question is yes -- his numbers lead me directly to the top 3 of the 4 finishers.

[Achilles]

Thank you CJ for posting the PP's

and many thanks to BetHorses for bringing this one up. The winner's pace shape certainly lends itself to 7f and he would not be facing any horses as fast as the winner of his previous start. I'm doubtful that I would have had the horse for the win because I tend to think "bounce" when a horse matches his top first race off a six month layoff. He is a lightly raced young horse though. Congrats if you bet him.:ThmbUp:

[Storm Cadet]

He ran off a layof in the mud...trainer intent (if he was going to go all out for the W, he probably scratches but trainer wanted a tightener or prep race after the layoff) He got it!

The horse ran a new final fig top, paired his CJ perf top and a new late top and ran a minus 24 spread (which is excellent for a closer like this!) He obviously did not get used up by his last effort. And he was only truely S horse in the field.

Give me this scenario every time :eek:

He's maturing later in his 3 yo season and depending on his next fig (which I bet set some new tops) he'll regress and bounce a bit next out!

[keilan]

He's maturing later in his 3 yo season and depending on his next fig (which I bet set some new tops) he'll regress and bounce a bit next out!


Fair post until this point :confused:

[Storm Cadet]

Usually after a set of pair ups or new tops, a regression even a few points would be expected. And from the early look at his excellent effort yesterday, he probably ran a a double or triple top effort. Depending on how quickly his trainer brings him back, will decide regression, but I doubt a new move forward soon! IMO

[BetHorses!]

What exactly was the sheets style move here? I

lightly raced 3 year old matching his 2 year old lifetime top (CJ perform fig).

The most important factor was the price as I saw no value with my top contenders.


CJ--A side note I would like to share is that one of my favorite angles that I consider to be a strong trainer move for any trainer is Blinkers off with a rider switch, that has been huge this meet :eek: