Handicapping time

[anotherdave]

My local track (Hastings) just changed from 8 or 9 races a day for 3 days a week to 12 or 13 races a day Saturdays and Sundays. I do quite well at Hastings, but I handicap fairly in depth, more in depth than other tracks I follow. All this talk about betting 75 races makes me feel like a wimp. I'm going to have trouble doing in depth handicapping of 25 races a weekend. I use a computer program for the calculations, but I still need 15 or 20 minutes a race to clarify what I want to do in a race. And I haven't included the actual time when the races are on.

So all this talk about how many races can you handle a day makes me wonder about a couple of things.

Question 1: How much time do you spend handicapping a typical race?

Question 2: How many races can you handle in a day?

I'd do these as a poll, but that would be too simplistic, so I want your responses. Someone like Dick who has a computer procedure set up to allow a large amount of bets (volume, volume, volume) down to someone like me or even down to a spot player who plays 3 or 4 races a day seriously.

I have trouble dealing with more than 2 or 3 tracks a day. I've got to speed up. If I don't, I'm afraid it will cost me money. But if I do speed up, I'm afraid it will cost me money. Catch 22.

The volume of wagers would sure be nice! I could make some serious money on 75 bets a day at an ROI of 10%. Even 5%.

AD

[Dick Schmidt]

AD,

Ya, you could speed up and make a lot more money. You could also speed up and have your handicapping go to hell. Just cause someone else does something successfully, doesn't mean you should give up what works for you. It is only a pattern that I found in HSH that allows me to play that many races a day. I also use 2 or 3 horses in most races, and only hit about 53%. There is a downside to "volume, volume, volume."

There is no rule that says you have to play every race on the card. If a favorite is listed in the morning line at 6-5 or some such, and he looks solid at first glance, I many times skip the race and move on. Well, sometimes. Once in a while. Hell, I play them all, but think about skipping a race sometimes.

Anyway, don't be in a hurry to abandon what has been working for you. It's comfortable and profitable. What more do you want? Keep racking them up!

Dick


P.S. I really wish I had never mentioned the damn 75 races a day. It isn't important, it's just my style of play. I have a friend who looks at 100 races a day, handicaps about 40 and plays 7 or 8. He makes a LOT more money than I do. I just think my way is more fun and works better for me.

[anotherdave]

Dick,

Thanks for the comments. I don't really want to copy your style, just your ROI :)

I just wonder if I am overhandicapping. There is so much that the computers can do to save me time and I am using them, but maybe I need to use them some more. Back to dusting off my "Make your own program" file. But things are going pretty well this year, so I'll keep plugging away with some gradual adjustments, I guess.

AD

[ranchwest]

My suggestion is that whatever you do that is successful, keep doing it.

If you can't handle the number of races, then consider focusing on your strong point(s). Toss out routes or maidens or stakes or whatever it is that you aren't making money on. Handicap the rest the same way that you are now.

While action is nice, it ain't everything. I had the computer go through 7 cards for Friday just to find 2 plays.

[Bob Harris]

AD,

The running joke with some of the people I sit with is "5 minutes to post is 4 minutes more than Harris needs". I'm a big believer in opening a race up on the computer, glancing at the contention and making a decision...boom-boom-boom. If something doesn't jump right out at me, I'm much better off turning the page.

I have a friend who is an excellent handicapper...my method of play would send him straight to the looney bin. In fact, he'll often work the first 3-4 races the night before because he just isn't comfortable if he can't spend 30 minutes on a race. I tease him about doing "a whole 9 races" but the truth is if handicapped outside his comfort level, his entire results might change.

[Dick Schmidt]

Bob,

Damn, and I thought I was fast. I spend three or four times as much time as you do on a race. What's your secret???????

Seriously, your comments on personal style are right on. We must each find our own way of going and follow our own path. Any other way leads to unhappiness or poverty.


Dick

[Rick]

The most profitable methods I've found involve very little time. Simpler is better IF you have something that works. Really complex methods usually come about from people tweaking a method that doesn't quite work by adding a lot of extra rules or variables. That usually improves the bottom line for the past results, but adds little if anything (or hurts) the future results. You could use many variables IF they're relatively independent of one another (not usually the case), but usually two or three stand out as being by far the most important. There just aren't that many significant variables (in terms of ROI) to use in horse racing.

[ranchwest]

Rick,

It has been my experience in writing rules that one must first stick with logical rules. The more one heads toward "the inside post on Tuesday if the jockey's last name ends in 'd' and the horse is gray and it is not a leap year", the more likely the method will fall apart. I know this is an extreme example, but it isn't difficult to start writing a rule and end up with no logical correlation among the components of the rule. That's the key. A rule can be complex if the components have correlation.

[modred]

I had a program called AOdds98, which I no longer use, that allowed me to use a research database feature where you could select the number of lines to include from the most recent downwards. I found that using the last line IN THAT PROGRAM was the most profitable for me with nothing other than that. It was a purely mechanical system. Why did I stop? Because things at my job got more interesting and took a lot more time.

[alyingthief]

i myself take about 1.3 seconds per race: a swift examination of the pace configuration, figuring the expected times of each horse in each fraction against today's probable pace, consulting my handicapper's notebook and databases, generating a variant when necessary, quickly scanning the energy patterns both short and long term for this race, noting the trainer patterns of the favorite for an edge, an astute gaze at the rumps of all the contestants, along with the arcane significances in the arch of their necks, and a final quick toss of the ol' lucky silver dollar. i could not survive without monitoring the tote board, so i do that too--and since i have personally installed cameras to focus on the eqpt. board at every track in america, i monitor that as well. i don't like to get too complex, so that's it. my betting takes .277 of a second, a key stroke and it's done, with confirmation, no less, entered automatically in my 75 databases, as are all my handicapping decisions. these data bases are integral to my action, so i study them between visits to the toilet and the fridge. you have to keep abreast of all the action.

later, in the evening, i pour over my records, i memorize the names of all the horses in australia, tabulate the number and breeding lineage of new british foals, bet hong kong, shoot fish in the barrel of the nikei index and play frisbee with the dog. i also like to take time out to read, as derek does, to the blind, and distribute leaflets in behalf of the march of dimes. i sleep approximately 26 minutes per week, which admittedly, is too much, but one has to relax their standards somewhat, or one grows stale, nicht wahr? i also like to compose these little reminders to all you minnows in the deep blue handicapping sea. i conduct seminars all the time, and for FREE!!! i like to think that handicapping is an art form.

i have an r.o.i. of 2.76 on wagers consisting of eight horses or more, and never fail to nail odds on favorites when it's sure. you must understand my methods are not for everyone--though, with the proper monetary inducement, i might divulge them to select handicappers.

5,000 dollars.

[Rick]

When I was playing spot plays in Nevada I checked all of the tracks in the entire country in about 10 minutes during my lunch hours. Although I only had a few plays each day, I guess you could say that my handicapping time per race checked was maybe one second at most. Big deal. What are we going for here, Ripley's Believe it or Not or the Guiness Book of World Records?

[PaceAdvantage]

alyingthief,


You're starting to steal Derek's thunder.....

[alyingthief]

well, to tell the truth, rick, i'm being a great deal of the devil's advocate here. but i do think when you make a statement like "i look over ten tracks in a lunch break", you really are being ridiculous, though not maliciously so. what you ARE doing is looking for a target you can hit, and focusing on it, is this not true? i've done it myself, slip into harrah's, and glance at all the tracks on the screens, hey, i like that track, i can do that track! scan the pp's at the board there, chew my chin, and decide i like buttholelouie in the third at monmouth, to place. hell, i probably have a positive ROI doing it; but i sure as hell wouldn't if i tried doing it that way for a living. i used to have a great ROI in turf, until i found out i had a great ROI, and preoccupied myself with it for a while. guess what, not so great an ROI when played for real money: this game is too hard, too fluid, and too seductive to bow to simplicities.. and anyone who says it isn't is hardly trustworthy. nor have they any idea of the mathematics they buck when they paint such pictures.

the problem i have with all these claims of 75 races, 30% ROIs, and more is both experiential--they run very counter to everything i've SEEN and DONE at the game--and rational--particularly when i find such claims moderated, when derided, by the claimants themselves, which absolutely raises a flag of alarm in my reasoning. if you go through mr. schmidt's posts you will see a lot of contradiction in numbers, in days devoted to the races, in time spent on records; and if you go to HSH website's BB you'll find even more. these contradictions may well be explainable, but they are contradictions, and i would like them explained, if possible--i have the memory of the sartin people, and the mitchell people, and all the systems and method sellers out there to give me pause: but since it's hardly expectable that a methodologist will explain his contradictions, if it compromises his wallet, i just point fingers and laugh. i don't at all deny that one can bet 50 races in twenty minutes--i do deny the profitability of it. indeed, i'm serious about wagering against the claim. the way i figure it, i have a roughly 4,000,000 to one chance of winning. too good an odd to pass up.

i must remind you, that the two men most asservative about the validity of these claims is the man who MAKES HIS LIVING SELLING THE SOFTWARE AND SUPPORT used to produce these outrageous numbers, AND A MAN WHO GIVES SEMINARS IN BEHALF OF SAID MAN. am i being ridiculous in laughing at your gullibility? or in refusing to participate in it? is this sartin all over again?

mr. schmidt says he has worked on his method for 6 months: i suggest to mr. schmidt he send me his database, or you his database, hell, any of us his database, and his HSH program, and his method, and i will run the numbers. if in fact the system works, i'll tell you all, and pay for the program and the data base. i'll publicly kiss the man's butt at high noon on broadway, you bet. i'll go further, i'll pay the man 10,000 dollars for the system. hell, i'll mortgage my house for it.

it would be worth it, a 30% ROI on 54% winners with a rollover on 75 races a day? my god, gimme, gimme!!!!!--i should acquire IBM within two weeks, and the golden pagoda in tibet, absolutely. THINK ABOUT IT, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!! do you have any idea what kind of money this represents? you needn't even bet optimally, nor into the smaller pools: you're talking 5000 dollar bets within mere days! jesus christ wake up!!!!!!!

mr. schmidt flips his wrist at "the source" of these considerations, and that is sufficient, and always has been, to the faithful. but gentlemen, you may seriously believe christ will rise from the crypt, but it ain't necessarily so--and faith has burnt more sinners than scepticism has ever saved, you bet.

[azmike]

I welcome a diversity of views and opinions--it makes for very good discussion. I do however object to personal attacks and profanity. If you can't make your point without those type of tactics you don't have a valid point.

Again, being critical and skeptical is healthy, more power to you in that regard. Please don't blur anything of value you bring to this board by such tactics.

I am very happy Dick is so active on this board. He brings great value to our discussion and does not engage in such tactics even when he strongly disagrees with the poster.

I wish I could do what Dick does--75 races per with a positve roi--I can't. But my style suits me. That's ok.

[alyingthief]

say, arizona, i have a knucklebone of the dear saint bernard, would you like to buy it?

[azmike]

I guess I may not be up to date with the current humor or something but I don't have any clue what you mean?

[alyingthief]

what i mean, arizona, is that you're behaving as a member of the faithful. but don't worry, i will tire of this game swiftly, the useful information on this particular thread is non existent: it has the appearance of, i know the truth; and i wish i knew the truth. and to be frank, those questions will only be answered with research, not with computer programs that promise you the heavens in return for one week's earnings. and this is the truth.

[Sekrah]

I'm usually most comfortable handicapping with about 8 minutes to post.. The second I'm finishing analzying each horse, there's 1 MTP, and I can run up to the window with my bet.

Anything less than 8 minutes and I tend to overlook things that I'll kick my pants after the race about.

Anything more than 8 minutes, and my mind is just jammed with too much information than I know what to do with and after I finish my average 8 minute process, I often find myself switching my picks several times in the last couple minutes on further review of the form, and that is just a no good at all.


Whatever makes you comfortable, is what you go with.

Being comfortable handicapping is the most important thing. Handicapping under pressure and stress (without comps.) will lead to a pile of losing tickets in a hurry.


Find your comfort zone, and stick to it.

[modred]

If Dick Schmidt says he does what he does I believe him, but it doesn't make me want to go out and buy HSH or any other program. I will not pay money for any more of them no matter what the claims ... if I can't do it my way then I am not interested. So I read the posts and am happy that the writers are doing well. If and when I learn to code my own I will offer it on my board gratis with source code so others can also roll their own. That is my desire.

[Tom]

I take about a minute to do a maiden claimer. Any longer and I am wasting time. I have a few long term angles that I can look for in about 5 minutes per track, tops. I spent a month doing the Ky Derby and then posted that We would finish dead last!
Using a program like HSH or HTR, the handicapping is already pretty much done - you can evaluate readouts in a short period of time. Maybe Dick does 75 races a day, maybe he doesn't bet at all. What difference does that make???? Some days I bet all 10 races, some weeks I pass every race every day.

[Lefty]

Yeah, Dick, you should never have mentioned 75 races a day. Maybe you should of said, say, 70.

[Dick Schmidt]

Lefty,

Maybe I never should have opened my mouth. I never thought it was such an extraordinary number, nor did I have any idea of the controversy it would generate. Michael Pizzolla and I used to play 45 races a day working from a paper Form and doing the numbers by hand or with a calculator. I didn't think 75 would be greeted by such universal skepticism.

Live and learn.

Dick

[Rick]

Dick,

I suppose the implication is that a "real" pro would handicap all day on one race in order to give it the proper degree of analysis?

After years of research, I now spend less time per race than ever making a decision. I guess I'm probably getting dumber all the time. In a couple of years I'll probably forget how to do "real" handicapping altogether.

Hey, come to think of it, the guys who have computers that are directly connected to the parimutuel pools have essentially zero handicapping time per race so they couldn't possibly exist.