Turf Figures in Dirt Races?

[classhandicapper]

Does anyone have any insights into how to deal with races where one or more starters only has figures from turf and today's race is on dirt?

Todays 9th race at Saratoga is one example.

The 7 and 9 had similar figures, but one earned his figures on dirt and the other turf. Today's race was on dirt. They both ran very well.

The situation comes up most often in "off the turf" races, but it does come up at other times also. Some of the horses run to their turf figures and others do not, but it's not clear to me where the value is or how to handle the situation.

Any insights at all would be appreciated.

[sjk]

I only play dirt races and I pretend that the turf races never happened. If a horse has no dirt form in the last 120 days I look to play against him.

[Zaf]

I have been much more sucessful in betting turf to dirt switches rather than dirt to turf switches. Maybe some of you database guys can give us some solid insight. Thanks.

ZAFONIC

[delayjf]

I've had some success with dirt horses that are ranked high in sustained pace OFF a dirt race, but not much experience the other way. I suppose you would prefer the turf horses that tend to run up on the pace. Make sure you get a price.

[kingfin66]

If you're looking at exotics, I say use the horse and any other unknowns if there are two or less. More than two is too many and you can pretty much pass the race. JMHO.

[Tom]

I never, ever, use a turf fig on a dirt race or vice versa.

I have been burned a lot, too. But heck, you gotta have some rules!

[46zilzal]

One never knows if a turfer can lift a foot on dirt or vice versa, better to just watch

[kev]

I'm with Tom, I just draw a line right threw it.

[JackS]

Memorize a few super sires or prefferably grand sires since theres many more horses in this catagory. Look for the ones known to produce early winners on the grass. this is for Mdn and Nw's only.
Memorize as many as you like of course but if you limit it to 5-10, this can be accomplished in no time.
Turf racing is my weak point but I have noticed and occassionally won just by recognizing a name.

[Whirlaway]

I tested for best last race Speed Figure:

Last Race Turf --> Today Dirt
1682 Horses 19% winners .78 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Turf
559 Horses 18.2% winners .70 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Dirt
13686 Horses 27.3% winners .86 ROI

Last Race Turf --> Today Turf
2531 Horses 23.7% winner .85 ROI

Last Race Wet Track --> Today Wet Track
1016 Horses 27.1% winners .79 ROI

[Zaf]

Thanks Whirlaway :)

ZAFONIC

[TurfRuler]

Horses races are highly unpredicable. You may be able to take turf breeding and percentages to predict how a horse will do on the turf after racing on the dirt exclusivly and maybe one or two time on the turf in the money. The horses in other parts of the world only race on the grass and that is maybe why their form holds up. But for dirt races you may have to dismiss the figure, and go with the horse that is coming into form. How to find that one is the question and not whether they have switched from dirt or turf or vis versa.

[delayjf]

never, ever, use a turf fig on a dirt race or vice versa.

I would never do it UNLESS I had a good price. In Pizzola's book Handicapping Magic, he describes a horse that he touted I believe called Kicken In or something like that. The reason this horse sticks out in my mind is because I too bet him, not on his advise, but because he was the number one sustained pace horse even though he was rated off a dirt race.

With this angle, I reasoned that on dirt, they usually don't run final fractions as fast as they do on grass, so any horse that can rank high on sustained pace OFF A DIRT RACE has some closing ability. Plus he was 30-1, I never would have played him at anything less than 10-1.

Remember, sometimes you win sometimes you lose and sometimes it rains.
Think about it :D

[TurfRuler]

Remember, sometimes you win sometimes you lose and sometimes it rains.
Think about it :D

And for the tracks that card turf races off the turf, then the also eligible for dirt only is a trainer key stat, because the trainer knows that their turf racers can only compete on the turf and they will scratch them, notice how many. I have.

[kingfin66]

Remember, sometimes you win sometimes you lose and sometimes it rains. Think about it :D

I thought about it and...I AGREE.

[Vegas711]

Treat the turf paceline in the same manner that you would treat a shipper. What I do is compare the turf ratings that the horse ran in previous races and make a note what they do on the dirt. From this data i can make an estimate of turf to dirt moves. Never accept a short price when doing this.

[Vegas711]

I tested for best last race Speed Figure:

Last Race Turf --> Today Dirt
1682 Horses 19% winners .78 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Turf
559 Horses 18.2% winners .70 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Dirt
13686 Horses 27.3% winners .86 ROI

Last Race Turf --> Today Turf
2531 Horses 23.7% winner .85 ROI

Last Race Wet Track --> Today Wet Track
1016 Horses 27.1% winners .79 ROI

If you take the data and split it into 2 sets: how would the results differ with odds less than 4-1 as compared to those greater than 4-1.

[Hosshead]

Does anyone have any insights into how to deal with races where one or more starters only has figures from turf and today's race is on dirt?

Todays 9th race at Saratoga is one example.

The 7 and 9 had similar figures, but one earned his figures on dirt and the other turf. Today's race was on dirt. They both ran very well.

The situation comes up most often in "off the turf" races, but it does come up at other times also. Some of the horses run to their turf figures and others do not, but it's not clear to me where the value is or how to handle the situation.

Any insights at all would be appreciated.Use these (T-D) kind in exotics. As Tom says, you can't rely on figs from a different surface. So use several in a race to catch a longshot in the exotics, including Pic-3's 4's etc.


If the turf to dirt horse is a Fav. or 2nd Fav., good to bet against, especially if it's a speed horse. Many times I've seen Turf Speedballs fall apart in the stretch, when switched to dirt.

Otherwise Pass !

[john spencer]

hey classhandicapper . not sure if it helps you . i have owned a few horses here in Australia and during the winter in the south we always sent our horses north where it is their summer . in the south the tracks are grass and in the north mostly dirt . here we found that if our horses could not handle the rock hard tracks on grass they invariable did not go a yard on any type of dirt track when racing in the same class of field. hope this helps . happy punting .


John

[maxwell]

1 - what's the trainer's ROI going turf to dirt?

2 - how good was the speed fig. relative to the par?

3 :

If a horse runs a good fig. on grass but has a poor rating ( 200 ) AND has a good rating for an off track ( 300 ) AND a good rating for the distance ( 300 ) , it " could " be a good thing? :D

4 - Pass! :cool:

[classhandicapper]

Thanks a lot. That's exactly what I was looking for.

Whose figures did you use?


I tested for best last race Speed Figure:

Last Race Turf --> Today Dirt
1682 Horses 19% winners .78 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Turf
559 Horses 18.2% winners .70 ROI

Last Race Dirt --> Today Dirt
13686 Horses 27.3% winners .86 ROI

Last Race Turf --> Today Turf
2531 Horses 23.7% winner .85 ROI

Last Race Wet Track --> Today Wet Track
1016 Horses 27.1% winners .79 ROI

[Whirlaway]

Thanks a lot. That's exactly what I was looking for.

Whose figures did you use?

They are Cramer figures from Handicaper's Data Warehouse.

Best last race figure:

All Horses
26402 Horses 25.7% winners .84 ROI

Odds < 4/1
18893 Horses 31.8% winners .86 ROI

Odds >= 4/1
7509 Horses 10.6% winners .81 ROI

[Overlay]

From data I've seen, the strongest statistical results were obtained by using an average of the figures from only those races out of a horse's recent (last three) starts which were run on the same surface as today's race. The only time that would not be done would be if the horse's recent races had all been run on a different surface, in which case all of them would be used to develop the average.

[sparkywowo]

A typical dirt router might run fractions like the following at a mile:

Early Runners: 23 24 25 27
Midpack Runners: 24 24 25 26
Deep Closers: 25 25 24 25

On the turf you might see:

Early: 24 24 25 25
Midpack: 25 24 24 25
Deep: 26 24 24 24

I wouldn't expect a horse with no early foot on the turf to reproduce its form on the dirt, and I wouldn't expect a horse with no late kick on the dirt to reproduce its form on the turf.

[BetHorses!]

My formula includes using the best most recent races regardless of surface. And I am not afraid of layoffs either!

[Tom]

An angle I look for is turf-dirt figs in the same form cycle.
Assume Beyers:

Turf ???
Dirt 88
Dirt 84
Dirt 74
Dirt 76
Dirt 63
===========
Dirt 65
Turf 69
Turf 71
Dirt 63
Dirt 61


The turf lines might look bad visually, but a closer looks shows the horse actually improved a but when it made the dirt - turf switch before.
Today, the horse's dirt form is much better than befroe, so should we expect a similar slight improvement going to the turf today?
Well, if there are odds, that's where I bet.

[cj]

This is exactly how try to handle those type horses Tom. Look at figures earned over both surfaces over a similar timeframe, and then what the horse is running now.

I also like to use the Tomlinson ratings for horses racing on dirt or turf the first time. If a horse gets a figure of 90 on the Turf with a 375 Tommy, I'm not really looking for any improvement, and probably decline, on the dirt. But that same 90 on the turf with a 225 Tommy I'll guess can at least be duplicated on dirt. Of course, a lot depends on the odds the horse is on the tote.

[keilan]

This is exactly how try to handle those type horses Tom. Look at figures earned over both surfaces over a similar timeframe, and then what the horse is running now.

I also like to use the Tomlinson ratings for horses racing on dirt or turf the first time. If a horse gets a figure of 90 on the Turf with a 375 Tommy, I'm not really looking for any improvement, and probably decline, on the dirt. But that same 90 on the turf with a 225 Tommy I'll guess can at least be duplicated on dirt. Of course, a lot depends on the odds the horse is on the tote.


Sly like a fox U R :)

[Tee]

So was the winner out of Chester House the one with previous turf starts?