Say I wanna change circuits . . .

[Bobby]

I only play 2 tracks. I wanna add Turfway to the fold when it starts up with that polydirt next week. I know nothing. What do I need to do?
My ideas:

-Just watch the first few days
-Obviously, throw out the pars from previous meets.
-Pay attn to the top trainers/jocks from the last meet or so.
-No more, off tracks or so they say. I don't blv this one though. U add water to anything and its all together different even if the surface is a sponge.
-TP wuz speed favoring. Polytrack not like that according to the makers (although wire jobs won the 3 exhibition races last week). so does that portend of a speed favoring tracks when it opens?

Are there any other, not so obvious ideas?

[Valuist]

I'm planning on sitting out the first day or two at TP. Even though its only a month long, I think you'll see a number of repeat winners. It will definitely be a horse-for course track. Maybe look for horses that have also been training at Kee (they have Polytrack for their training track).

[sjk]

Turfway is my local track so I am very interested to see what will happen. I think they are really going out on a limb to change to a new surface.

I take the position that turf form does not transfer to dirt and dirt form does not transfer to turf. Does either one transfer to polytrack? If that is in doubt I don't know how anyone could gamble on the races.

[Valuist]

Sjk-

I read one British guy said that at Wolverhampton, turf form actually transferred well to the Polytrack. But of course there's very little dirt form to compare it to.

Sounds almost like Polytrack is made like field turf; using crushed up tire bits.

[sjk]

That would make it tough since most of the horses running at TP will have no turf form.

I don't play turf races at all so if it plays like turf that will leave me out. Maybe I'll play Hoosier.

[rokitman]

Polytrack in the UK http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?t=311

Personally, I hope the stuff bursts into flames and they bring back the speed sand :)

[Tom]

Watch the races and make a trck profile.

Compare your pre-race pace analysis to the actual races. Are you way off base, or do you have a handle on what really happens.
What the shipper tracks - is a bias towards horses from a certain track or cicuit?
Where are the top jockeys during the race - gunning for the lead, swinging wide?

Shouldn't take long - I'll be playing by day two. Maybe late day one.

[Zaf]

I'm just waiting for CJ to make the new pars and variants and then I'm off to the bank :cool: !

ZAFONIC

[superfecta]

when remington park had a similar surface it was hailed as the end all be all,modeled after the same tracks overseas.But since we have a different environment (hot days,high humidity,or cold chilly with high humidity)it had a strong bias to the rail .Some days the rail was to be,some days it was about the three path.And when it was muddy,no telling what would happen.But a telling sign was how the jocks would ride.They would darn near run over each other getting to the "spot".Some days it was just who got lucky enough to find the firm spots.So you have to be aware of what type of conditions of the track rather than the condition of the horse.I think when the surface is heavily used in extreme conditions it inheritenly develops a bias.But lightly used in optimum conditions(sunny,78degrees,low humidity)it doesnt show any problems.Which is why it looks good at training tracks .So be aware of the bias that can develop.

[ezpace]

IF it's anything like the old Remington Park artificial surface before they returned to a regular dirt surface watch the shoe board closely to see what's working.. calks,bends,especially quarter horse grabs(sprints) if you can identify them .they may not be legal on the surface I don't know Turfways shoe rules. They worked at Remingotn legal or not ;) / I realize this is a different type artificial surface . fwiw

[sjk]

I stopped by there to check out the track and it could not be more different than before. The banking is almost non-existant on the turns and the straight is very nearly level.

The surface feels spongy.

Should be interesting to see it in action on Wednesday.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

Polytrack is completely different than any track in America.

Its always fast.

Varianats will be almost non-existant along with bias.

speed hosses will die off.

Hosses will come from behind like grass hosses.

Final fractions will be all important.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

from the article.

"The table shows there is virtually no draw bias"

there isn't any bias regarding Post position becuase the track is uniform.

[PaceAdvantage]

Varianats will be almost non-existant along with bias.

I'll believe that when I see it...as of now, I don't buy that....

[midnight]

There will probably still be a speed bias. Off-the-pace horses still have to negotiate traffic, and the jockey of an off-the-pace horse has to time the horse's move correctly, not get sucked into a slow pace, etc. It might be less than on a regular track surface.

There will still be a post position bias in the routes with a short run to the first turn. The outside horses are either going to lose ground on the first turn or use up more energy than the inside horses to avoid losing ground. It might not be as pronounced as on a regular surface.

I would guess that there will still be some variation/variants, although probably not as great as with a regular surface.

What there probably won't be are the 10-20 days in the dead of winter that Turfway cancels its racing because the jockeys refuse to ride due to the track being unsafe.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

What there probably won't be are the 10-20 days in the dead of winter that Turfway cancels its racing because the jockeys refuse to ride due to the track being unsafe.


Unsafe track? The only reason they will cancel turfway is that people
can't get to the track due to weather conditions.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

I'll believe that when I see it...as of now, I don't buy that....

My question to you is why you don't buy it. It's NOT a natural surface waiting to be effected by the elements. Its a uniform surface. It will always be rated fast. Its the almost perfect handicapping surface.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

There will probably still be a speed bias. Off-the-pace horses still have to negotiate traffic, and the jockey of an off-the-pace horse has to time the horse's move correctly, not get sucked into a slow pace, etc. It might be less than on a regular track surface.



Is there a speed bias on grass? This is a revolutiony surface. Its gonna take some out of the box handicapping.

I know I am gonna make sone money while old fuddy-duddy handicappers
using old (dirt) ideas.

[midnight]

The pace of grass routes is different than that of dirt routes.

[Valuist]

There still will be a variance in daily track speed. After a rain, it will be slicker than when its dry. And what about wind? The wind isn't going to stop blowing just because they change their surface. I wonder if Wolverhampton or the other UK Polytracks ever have to race in zero degree weather with snow coming down like they do at Turfway in January.

[Tom]

Valuist...you fuddy-duddy you. :rolleyes:

[midnight]

Is there a speed bias on grass?

Let's see if there is.

We'll use the sample from my current database, from June 24th to August 28th over all of the thoroughbred tracks Pinnacle takes wagering on. There are about 1272 races of a mile or longer on the turf (there may be a few less due to dead-heats, but that wouldn't significantly affect the results):

Horses: 11535
Wins: 1272
Pct: 11.0%
I.V.: 1.00 (1.00 is the equivalent of betting all horses or random horses)
ROI 0.81 (1.00 is break-even)

Now let's check all horses who made the lead at the first call (usually four furlongs into the race):

Horses: 1272
Wins: 234
Pct: 18.4%
I.V.: 1.67
ROI: 1.48

Now all horses not on the lead but within 4 3/4 lengths (inclusive) at the first call:

Horses: 5264
Wins: 606
Pct: 11.5%
I.V.: 1.05
ROI: 0.79

All horses between 5 and 9 3/4 lengths inclusive at the first call:

Horses: 3438
Wins: 354
Pct: 10.3%
I.V.: 0.94
ROI: 0.81

And finally, all horses 10 lengths or further back at the first call:

Horses: 1561
Wins: 78
Pct: 5.0%
I.V.: 0.45
ROI: 0.36

While horses who lay off the pace do better at grass routes than horses who lay off the pace do in dirt races, it's still clear, at least in this sample, that there is a bit of a speed bias at turf routes.

[BarnieClockerbigal]

and what about the dirt route numbers over the same time period?

[midnight]

Surprisingly, not a lot of difference up and down the line.

There are 2398 dirt routes in the database:

Plays: 18412
Wins: 2398
Pct: 13%
ROI: 0.80

Horses on the lead at the first call:

Plays: 2386
Wins: 556
Pct: 23%
ROI: 1.29

Horses not on the lead but within 4 3/4 lengths:

Plays: 8892
Wins: 1206
Pct: 14%
ROI: 0.78

Horses from 5 to 9.75 lengths off the lead:

Plays: 5013
Wins: 483
Pct: 10%
ROI: 0.68

Horses 10 lengths or further off the lead:

Plays: 2121
Wins: 141
Pct: 7%
ROI: 0.64

The horse on the lead wins a bit more often, but it also pays less, on average, and the overall ROI is lower than the leaders on the grass. The other numbers aren't far off of their grass counterparts.

[ezpace]

I'm with PA on this one. IF the daily temp , humidity, etc all stayed the same it still would be a maybe. If anyone lives or has been around KY. you know different:) . Rubber is consistent part of this surface. Have you ever left something rubber outside ? in the sun , out of the sun,, hot /cold temps.(and I'm not referring to condoms guys) ;) After the chemicals included int the surface along with the rubber has "weathered" and the newness(sp) wore off .. I expect it to FLIP(bias) a lot. I Reserve the right to be wrong though.