need help separating my top two contenders

[motorhead]

in certain classes and field sizes, i've been able to hit 60% wins using my top two contenders

betting both doesnt make money

neither does betting top choice only

need a suggestion to separate the two

classes are maiden sprints, maiden routes and claiming sprints

any/all help is appreciated

thanks

[kitts]

Claiming sprints, the cheaper the better, bet the highest odds horse. Works for me.

[SmartArt]

Bet both, but they each have to be 3/1 or over.

If you still hit 60% you're looking at 20% roi.

However, problem now becomes you have to hit 60% of the races you bet - not 60% of the races you handicap.

Anyone can feel free to double check my math or let me know if I don't make any sense at all.

[sparkywowo]

What methods are you using to come up with your top two contenders? Are you doing a full blown Sartin Methodology pace analysis and matchup?


What tracks are you operating at, what works for Maiden Races at Santa Anita isn't going to be relevant at Moutaineer. Also, are you talking about races for 2 yos, 3yos, or 3 and up? This makes a big difference as well.

[Overlay]

betting both doesnt make money

neither does betting top choice only

Sounds like you could use a means of approximating the winning chances of each of your choices, either by reference to your own experience (that is, how often your first choice wins and at what odds, and the same with your second choice), and making decisions about which horse to bet based on that; or else working up fair odds for your choices based on probabilities associated with a suitable variety of fundamental factors and betting the greater overlay of the two.

[motorhead]

thanks for the replies


betting the longer odds hasnt made money

neither has searching for a cetain odds minimum

pretty much all tracks, ages, etc

fast only

[BetHorses!]

Sell your numbers and promise 60% winners :)

[jotb]

in certain classes and field sizes, i've been able to hit 60% wins using my top two contenders

betting both doesnt make money

neither does betting top choice only

need a suggestion to separate the two

classes are maiden sprints, maiden routes and claiming sprints

any/all help is appreciated

thanks


Due to the fact, you are capping maiden races, I would use paddock inspection, post parade and body language...

Good luck,
Joe

[kenwoodallpromos]

Do not bet unless you have only 1 pick without a lot of effort. In these sprints noth may really be iffy. The shorter the race, the more clearcut the choice should be if you bet.

[valueguy]

Go with the stats ,best jockey ,trainer % combo.Tough to bet a jock or trainer under 9% unless perceived value dictates otherwise.

[SmartArt]

neither has searching for a cetain odds minimum

How could that be? If you hit 60% of bets and you get an $8.00 minimum mutuel?

Using $2 bets as an example:

Wagered per race: $4

60% of $8 = $4.80

Maybe the minimum odds you're using are not high enough. Or, like I said above, when you doing this it becomes harder to hit 60%.

[orlando]

Dear motorhead,your answer is in your read outs,there must be a catalyst of factors that show up in your winners? that stand out, factors that your winners have a high % of the time? hope this helps?

[sealord]

Make your own odds line, and take the overlay if there is one. If not, pass the race. Or, bet two horses with different amount bets.....the higher the odds, the bigger the bet.

[speculus]

My best profits consistently have come (and still do) from a situation where my top two picks are the same as the betting market's, only in reverse order.

I mean my second choice is listed as the market favorite, and my first choice as next in demand.

I generally make my biggest bet on my first choice.

If you keep records, please go and check back what would have been the scene if you adopted this strategy. I am sure you will know what I mean.

[toetoe]

Smart Art is correct. Don't forget, 20% is the MINIMAL profit. You're not forbidden to bet longshots. Bet two horses at a MINIMUM of 3/1. Some races are singles, anyway.

[JackS]

The odds board IS the bottom line. If your first choice out-performs your second choice by 20% than add a premium of an extra 10% to your second choice. If you can't get this price, your first choice is the bet if odds are acceptable to you. If your second choice qualifys, then this will be the bet.
Be prepared to accept the fact that your first choice will continue to win more often than the second choice but that your bet (win or lose) was the correct bet.
Also accept the fact that adding the extra 10% will price you out of some winners but that this should be regarded as the price of doing business which you know to be profitable in the long-run.

[speculus]

considering betting both your top choices.

This formula will give you the "effective odds" (let's denote as EO for "effective odds") for your top two choices.

EO = (x * y)/(x + y + 2)
where x represents odds for one pick
and y represents odds for the other pick

For example, if your top two picks have odds of 3 to 1 and 5 to 1, then

EO = (3 * 5)/(3 + 5 + 2) = 15/10 = 1.5 or the odds of 6 to 4 or 3 to 2.

Now looks upon your two horses combination as "one horse", and ask yourself whether this price for a win is "acceptable" to you or not.

If yes, bet.
If no, skip the race.

[eddie10]

You might check last race odds if they ran before and see how they were bet compare to today's odds. teddy