DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 04:18 AM
I'll admit it, I almost always look at pace figures when handicapping a race, but they are pretty far down my list of things of importance.
If you are going to get rich with horse racing, I think you are going to do it by turning a valid handicapping method into a number. And I'm not talking getting rich by making a profit through the windows, I'm talking getting rich because some publication or group of people are willing to pay money for your product.
I think Beyer, Ragozin, and Brown have profited nicely from turning final time into a single number. I think Lee Tomlinson has profited nicely from turning pedigree information into a single number. I'm sure there have been a lot of people who have made decent money by turning pace into a number.
If you are going to make money betting on horse racing, you don't have a snowballs chance in hell of doing it without being able to master virtually every single legit handicapping method---and you still have to have good money management skills, a healthy bankroll, and most importantly, you have to deal with losing streaks (they are inevitable) that can drive you bananas. Even than, you probably aren't going to win any worthwhile money, unless you invest an ungodly amount of time each day into this....and strongly compromise the quality of your life.
Imagine if the next guy with a book to come out says 'Buy my book!, it will help you lose less money.' or 'If you invest 14 hours a day, 7 days a week, for all but six weeks a year, I can assure you, that you will make at least $8,000 this year!" I wonder how well that stuff would sell!
What some people don't seem to get through there thick skull, is that the takeout in horse racing is barbaricly high, and the people you are betting against aren't all hopelessly stupid, like you would need them to be in order to assure yourself of annual six figure profits betting the races.
Using one single handicapping method to try and beat the races is like a pitcher trying to make it to the Major Leauges by throwing only one single pitch. I know Mariano Rivera throws that same cut-fastball over and over, but he's only one guy. I guess it's possible that there is one guy on earth who can beat the races with a single method, but that's about it.
This post is supposed to be about pace figures though---I most like to look at pace figures of horses who are changing in distances. If a horse closed nicely from mid-pack, and won going away in a sprint race, I would like the horses chances of stretching out if his Quirin style figure was 65-75. But, If his figure was 80-75 he would be a bad bet on the stretch out. Basically, the first horse closed nicely into a slow pace and the latter horse was involved in a fast paced race that collapsed late.
Lets say you have a race at five furlongs, in which two horses are exiting a six furlong race with front running wins---the first horse has a 90-75 and the second horse has a 68-78. Basically, the first horse set a pretty ruthless early pace for the level, and held off his rivals to win anyway. He's very capable of effectivley taking to a cut-back in distance off that race. The horse who won with a 68-78 pretty much made a cozy lead through moderate fractions, and took advantage of the circumstances. That horse is very poorly suited to a cut-back in distance off that last race.
That is my entire use of pace figures right there---I think they are a very underrated tool to determine how horses might do on the distance change, but other than that, I don't have much use for them. When I do my trip notes, I ALWAYS make an opinion of how fast/slow/or honest I thought the pace was in each race. I think a good analytical opinion is ALWAYS better than some number that is very sensative to a lot of things---shifts in wind most of all. One wind-shift can badly screw-up an entire day of pace figures.
I find it impossible that someone can win money over the long-haul with just pace figures alone. I heard someone say that the raw pace figures loved a horse named Dr. Rockett at Saratoga the other day. Anyone who knows Dr. Rockett---and if you play in New York you HAD BETTER KNOW WHO HE IS---knows that it takes an act of God for that horse to win a race. In fact, in his previous start, where he supposedly got that big pace figure, he bided his time in last while the other horses in that race went tooth-and-nail in a bitter pace battle through VERY swift fractions. The 2-for-40 something plodder Dr. Rockett took advantage of the HIGHLY favorable pace scenerio, and closed from last to win at 17-to-1 odds. That horse earned that supposedly great pace figure by winning a race that collapsed! He's the last horse you would want to bet out of that race!
I think it is more valuable for a player to know stuff like...
*On July 14th at Belmont, every single horse won wire-to-wire on the main track.
* On June 24th at Belmont, every single dirt race except for one was won from last-to-first on the dirt.
* On June 9th at Belmont, there were five races on the dirt. The far outside post won four of them and was second in the other. The winners paid 33-to-1, 7-to-5, 14-to-1, and 5-to-2. And the only one to lose was 2nd at 10-to-1 odds.
And to my amazement, every time I tell people about biases and trends like that, they act like they didn't even know about them. This is a game of information---and you can win money in the long haul if you CONSTANTLY know stuff that other people don't know. Your best shot to win at this game is by taping every race, and combing through them with the result chart and looking for horses who ran better races than people think, and horses who wasted perfect trips/setups---or horses who won with favorable circumstances. The above info from my Belmont Trip Notes is all fact---it's nice to know that every dirt race was won in wire-to-wire fashion, but you are going to make your money in this game with good opinions you uncover while studying the film and anayzing trips. I'd rather have one good, strong opinion from a trip than a hundred fancy stats that people aren't aware of.
To all people who use pace figures, and only pace figures---If you are looking for a way to constantly win big money betting the races, I would suggest giving up the pace figures and looking for a way to illegaly make bets on the far-turn of the race. That's the only chance you have of beating this game without putting in the manual work!
If you are going to get rich with horse racing, I think you are going to do it by turning a valid handicapping method into a number. And I'm not talking getting rich by making a profit through the windows, I'm talking getting rich because some publication or group of people are willing to pay money for your product.
I think Beyer, Ragozin, and Brown have profited nicely from turning final time into a single number. I think Lee Tomlinson has profited nicely from turning pedigree information into a single number. I'm sure there have been a lot of people who have made decent money by turning pace into a number.
If you are going to make money betting on horse racing, you don't have a snowballs chance in hell of doing it without being able to master virtually every single legit handicapping method---and you still have to have good money management skills, a healthy bankroll, and most importantly, you have to deal with losing streaks (they are inevitable) that can drive you bananas. Even than, you probably aren't going to win any worthwhile money, unless you invest an ungodly amount of time each day into this....and strongly compromise the quality of your life.
Imagine if the next guy with a book to come out says 'Buy my book!, it will help you lose less money.' or 'If you invest 14 hours a day, 7 days a week, for all but six weeks a year, I can assure you, that you will make at least $8,000 this year!" I wonder how well that stuff would sell!
What some people don't seem to get through there thick skull, is that the takeout in horse racing is barbaricly high, and the people you are betting against aren't all hopelessly stupid, like you would need them to be in order to assure yourself of annual six figure profits betting the races.
Using one single handicapping method to try and beat the races is like a pitcher trying to make it to the Major Leauges by throwing only one single pitch. I know Mariano Rivera throws that same cut-fastball over and over, but he's only one guy. I guess it's possible that there is one guy on earth who can beat the races with a single method, but that's about it.
This post is supposed to be about pace figures though---I most like to look at pace figures of horses who are changing in distances. If a horse closed nicely from mid-pack, and won going away in a sprint race, I would like the horses chances of stretching out if his Quirin style figure was 65-75. But, If his figure was 80-75 he would be a bad bet on the stretch out. Basically, the first horse closed nicely into a slow pace and the latter horse was involved in a fast paced race that collapsed late.
Lets say you have a race at five furlongs, in which two horses are exiting a six furlong race with front running wins---the first horse has a 90-75 and the second horse has a 68-78. Basically, the first horse set a pretty ruthless early pace for the level, and held off his rivals to win anyway. He's very capable of effectivley taking to a cut-back in distance off that race. The horse who won with a 68-78 pretty much made a cozy lead through moderate fractions, and took advantage of the circumstances. That horse is very poorly suited to a cut-back in distance off that last race.
That is my entire use of pace figures right there---I think they are a very underrated tool to determine how horses might do on the distance change, but other than that, I don't have much use for them. When I do my trip notes, I ALWAYS make an opinion of how fast/slow/or honest I thought the pace was in each race. I think a good analytical opinion is ALWAYS better than some number that is very sensative to a lot of things---shifts in wind most of all. One wind-shift can badly screw-up an entire day of pace figures.
I find it impossible that someone can win money over the long-haul with just pace figures alone. I heard someone say that the raw pace figures loved a horse named Dr. Rockett at Saratoga the other day. Anyone who knows Dr. Rockett---and if you play in New York you HAD BETTER KNOW WHO HE IS---knows that it takes an act of God for that horse to win a race. In fact, in his previous start, where he supposedly got that big pace figure, he bided his time in last while the other horses in that race went tooth-and-nail in a bitter pace battle through VERY swift fractions. The 2-for-40 something plodder Dr. Rockett took advantage of the HIGHLY favorable pace scenerio, and closed from last to win at 17-to-1 odds. That horse earned that supposedly great pace figure by winning a race that collapsed! He's the last horse you would want to bet out of that race!
I think it is more valuable for a player to know stuff like...
*On July 14th at Belmont, every single horse won wire-to-wire on the main track.
* On June 24th at Belmont, every single dirt race except for one was won from last-to-first on the dirt.
* On June 9th at Belmont, there were five races on the dirt. The far outside post won four of them and was second in the other. The winners paid 33-to-1, 7-to-5, 14-to-1, and 5-to-2. And the only one to lose was 2nd at 10-to-1 odds.
And to my amazement, every time I tell people about biases and trends like that, they act like they didn't even know about them. This is a game of information---and you can win money in the long haul if you CONSTANTLY know stuff that other people don't know. Your best shot to win at this game is by taping every race, and combing through them with the result chart and looking for horses who ran better races than people think, and horses who wasted perfect trips/setups---or horses who won with favorable circumstances. The above info from my Belmont Trip Notes is all fact---it's nice to know that every dirt race was won in wire-to-wire fashion, but you are going to make your money in this game with good opinions you uncover while studying the film and anayzing trips. I'd rather have one good, strong opinion from a trip than a hundred fancy stats that people aren't aware of.
To all people who use pace figures, and only pace figures---If you are looking for a way to constantly win big money betting the races, I would suggest giving up the pace figures and looking for a way to illegaly make bets on the far-turn of the race. That's the only chance you have of beating this game without putting in the manual work!