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BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 11:14 AM
Anyone in the area of this storm please go to Higher Ground NOW. This is the big one. You need to get yourself AT LEAST 100 miles inland. Wind speed is sustained at 160mph with Gusts around 195mph. Pressure is 908mb and falling. The storm has increased its forward speed to 12mph which means the window of opportunity to leave is closing fast. It also means that this storm will produce Hurricane force winds up to 150 miles inland after the storm comes ashore as a CAT 5 monster.

boxcar
08-28-2005, 12:44 PM
The amount of damage caused by Katrina as a "mere" Cat 1 storm in Dade and Broward counties of Florida is really quite amazing. Many people still w/o juice, roofs caved in, trees downed, homes flooded, etc, etc.

Last night in N.O., the people were in party mode -- not too concerned about this storm when it was still a Cat 3 -- but this morining when they got the bad news of the storm strengthening, everyone (at once it seems) decided to get out of Dodge.

I don't believe there is a worse place for a storm of this magnitude to strike -- simply because N.O. is below sea level. The damage there, I believe, will be catastrophic.

Boxcar

kenwoodallpromos
08-28-2005, 12:46 PM
Any other tracks in the way? any running now? how about large TBred farms?
I'm assuming all human and animal evacs have to be considerable distance.

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 01:24 PM
Sustained winds are now 175 mph with gusts at 210 mph. The eye is very well developed and it still has some very warm water to cross so further strengthening is definitely possible.

Unfortunately, we might just witness the strongest Hurricane ever.

Tom
08-28-2005, 01:47 PM
Parts of NO are below sea level - this is serious for them.

schweitz
08-28-2005, 02:18 PM
Any other tracks in the way? any running now? how about large TBred farms?
I'm assuming all human and animal evacs have to be considerable distance.

If it tracks farther west than predicted it will affect Evangeline (running now) or Delta Downs (not running now).

boxcar
08-28-2005, 02:27 PM
schweitz wrote:

If it tracks farther west than predicted it will affect Evangeline (running now) or Delta Downs (not running now).

But if the eye of the storm should track east of N.O., the city will literally be under 25' or more of water because there's a large lake to the east of the city. This lake would empty into it, since the western sector of the eyewall is the strongest part of the storm.

Why anyone would want to live and work in a city that is essentially below sea level is beyond me...

Boxcar

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 02:45 PM
schweitz wrote:

since the western sector of the eyewall is the strongest part of the storm.

Boxcar


The right front quadrant is the strongest part of the storm. And the area with highest potential for tornadoes.

Pressure down to 906mb -- almost a record

schweitz
08-28-2005, 05:14 PM
[QUOTE=boxcar

But if the eye of the storm should track east of N.O., the city will literally be under 25' or more of water because there's a large lake to the east of the city. This lake would empty into it, since the western sector of the eyewall is the strongest part of the storm.

Boxcar[/QUOTE]

Lake Pontchartrain has a large levee between it and New Orleans--should help some.

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 06:40 PM
QUOTE=boxcar

Lake Pontchartrain has a large levee between it and New Orleans--should help some.[/QUOTE]

It won't hold a 40ft storm surge. AND the water has no place to go after the City is under 30 feet of water so it will remain there for weeks.....weeks.

Also some other things to think about with worse case scenario:

Poisonous Snakes will be rampant trying to get away from the Salt Water.

High Rise Buildings might fall with a direct hit

Disease

Millions of trees blocking roads that have not been washed away

No Power

even above ground Caskets at the City Cemetary washed away

boxcar
08-28-2005, 07:26 PM
schweitz wrote:

Lake Pontchartrain has a large levee between it and New Orleans--should help some.

Didn't realize my remarks would cause such "controversy". :) I was merely repeating the gist of a report I heard on the Weather Channel. As BetHorses rightly indicated, Schweitz, those levees would, in all probability, not handle a 40' surge. In fact, from what I've heard on FNC and the Weather Channel, those levees were constructed to withstand only a Cat 3 storm. They're calling this one a "5-1/2" because it's a such a strong 5.

BetHorses, if you what you say about the "front right quad" is true in all cases, then I wonder why the WC meteorologist was theorizing about worse case scenarios if the eyewall should pass to the east of N.O. Maybe I'm not understanding something?

Boxcar


Boxcar

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 07:55 PM
Boxcar,

The Storm surge is what mostly kills people. If it passes just to the East of New Orleans the Northeast part of the Storm (Front Right) will cause a Devasting Storm surge from Lake Ponch along with the Gulf surge sort of a Double Whammy. If the Storm takes a jog to the East then the Front Right Surge would greater impact Mobile Bay Alabama.

schweitz
08-28-2005, 08:03 PM
QUOTE=boxcar

It won't hold a 40ft storm surge. AND the water has no place to go after the City is under 30 feet of water so it will remain there for weeks.....weeks.

Not really trying to nitpick because it's going to be bad for New Orleans for sure---but all I have heard of is a projected storm surge of 22 to 30 feet (which will be bad enough). New Orleans is only 5 to 10 feet below sea level, so once the surge has subsided it will hard for them to be under 30 feet of water for weeks. Anyhow---hoping for the best for the whole area.

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 08:13 PM
Not really trying to nitpick because it's going to be bad for New Orleans for sure---but all I have heard of is a projected storm surge of 22 to 30 feet (which will be bad enough). New Orleans is only 5 to 10 feet below sea level, so once the surge has subsided it will hard for them to be under 30 feet of water for weeks. Anyhow---hoping for the best for the whole area.

Fill a cup to the top with water and place the cup in a bowl. Blow on the top of cup as hard as you can....see all the water fall into the bowl, now tell me how the water will recede back into the cup.

Big Bill
08-28-2005, 08:30 PM
All members who are so inclined to offer up prayers for those in the way of this monster should do so now. Catastrophic might be too tame a description for this one.

Big Bill

JustRalph
08-28-2005, 09:07 PM
Bill,,,,,,,, get your butt up here to columbus!

you loook to be a little close to me.........good luck!

BetHorses!
08-28-2005, 11:08 PM
Any Engineering experts here? Will the Superdome hold? I know its built like a Rock but what about all the debris smashing into it.

Like 20,000 people in there now. Not sure I would feel safe inside.

Secretariat
08-28-2005, 11:12 PM
Hopefully, the amount of death and injuries is low, and the damage to infrastructure contained. Especially worried about those in the superdome. It's a rather older stadium isn't it?

Adidtionally, the price of crude oil has jumped to over $70.00 a barrel, a $5 increase due to Katrina shutting down the Gulf.

"We can expect two months of lost production, and coming in the peak demand period this is the worst possible news. The only way we can avoid yet higher prices is if President Bush releases supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."

The administration has said in the past it would release oil from the 700-million-barrel SPR only during a serious supply disruption, but has never given further details.

In New Orleans, hundreds of thousands of residents were advised to leave as Katrina was expected to make landfall near the low-lying Gulf Coast city around sunrise on Monday.

Apart from the impact on crude production, dealers fear the storm will tighten supplies of consumer fuels. Gasoline stockpiles are already at the low end of their seasonal norm.

Seven southeast Louisiana refineries with a combined daily refining capacity of 1.449 million barrels of crude oil had shut down ahead of Katrina making landfall, an amount equal to 8.5 percent of total U.S. refining capacity.

Two of those refineries near New Orleans -- the 190,000 bpd Chalmette Refining LLC and Murphy Oil Corp's 120,000 bpd Meraux plant -- appeared to be directly in the path of the storm.

This could get real nasty. People from the Bayou our prayers are with you.

doophus
08-29-2005, 12:58 AM
Here in Baton Rouge, all day we have watched 4-lanes of westbound traffic on I-10. It took my daughter and family 3 1/2hrs to travel approx 65mi from New Orleans to Baton Rouge; again, 4-lanes westbound and bumper-to-bumper.

Even with all the refineries mentioned by Sec, there is NO gas available tonight. About mid-day today the local Shell distributor authorized his stations to sell Premium at 87octane prices.

New Orleans is sitting approx 8ft below sea level and in a bowl. The Lake Pontchartrain levee supposedly can handle an 8-10ft storm surge; so they say. The lake is quite shallow and if the storm hits just right, they anticipate the lake surge to be approximately 12-15ft ABOVE the existing levee. If the levees can't hold back any surge, then, New Orleans begins to fill like BetHorses coffee cup. You could easily see 20ft depths in downtown New Orleans; 7-8ft below sea level plus the levee height. The pumps that were installed at the turn of the last century won't handle the water and they'll lose power rather quickly. The US Corp of Engineers will have to drain New Orleans, an endeavor that will require several weeks.

Entergy has closed the Waterford nuke plant, approx 20mi west of New Orleans, and another close to Baton Rouge and another in Mississippi are being watched closely, but not probable that they will be closed. Entergy friends told me yesterday that if the storm hit New Orleans the way the hurricane center had forecast, it would be at least 30days before New Orleans had electrical power. Also, Entergy is shutting down some natural gas lines, purging them, etc.

In 1965 Hurricane Betsy brought Baton Rouge sustained winds topping out at 68kts, the highest hurricane caused winds ever measured here. By noon tomorrow, it is projected, locally, that we will receive sustained winds of minimum hurricane force and gusts of 90-100. I certainly hope my large live-oaks fall the other way. Yep, the old chain saw is ready.

Despite the mayor's pleas some nuts have decided to ride-it-out in Grand Isle. Also, word tonight about some knuckle-head deciding he can ride it out in his sailboat. In short order he could end up at Royal & Bourbon and be unable to get a drink. ;)

BetHorses mentioned in an earlier post that this storm is measured at 908mb. If memory serves, that is a lower reading than Hurricane Camille, the motha-of-all-hurricanes. I think Camille bottomed at 909mb.

It will be rough for the next 24hrs. For those of you in the Ohio Valley, chink your rowboat, Katrina will be visiting you soon with more rain than you've seen lately. Remember, most of Camille's victims were drownings and most of those, I think, were in West Virginia and Virginia. Come mid-day or so on Tuesday, Katrina will be sitting in northern Mississippi approx equi-distance of Memphis and Nashville.

Other than leave for points west, we have done all we can. Tree damage and power outages will be the norm for Baton Rouge and points around.

Your thoughts and prayers are appreciated.

Secretariat
08-29-2005, 06:26 AM
Doophus,

Thanks for the update...man, you are in the teeth of it...didn't know about the nuke plant, or the levee backup. Read that it may mean a million homeless...this is horrific....best to you and your family......

BetHorses!
08-29-2005, 07:23 AM
Doophus,

My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family as well. Its 6:20am on the East coast and lets try to take some positive news. If you look at the satellite picture of the storm now, it appears as though some dry air has gotten into the Southwest quadrant and that part of the storm is falling apart a bit. Also pressure is up to 915mb and storm has been downgraded to a "cat 4". Still a very dangerous storm but my feeling is at least its gonna hit while weakening as opposed to Andrew hitting Florida (1992) while becoming stronger causing that "exploding effect". Also storm appears to be jogging a tad to the East so at least N.O. will be spared from the catastrophic wind damage from the Northeast section of the storm.

Big Bill
08-29-2005, 11:01 AM
JR,

Maybe we should have stayed in Columbus when we were up there a couple of weeks ago. :D

It is 8 am as I type this and we are experiencing very strong wind gusts and some rain showers. A couple of main roads in Destin (just south of us on the Gulf) have been closed as they have been breached by water surges from the Gulf. We will be in tornado watches and warnings most of the day. So I guess we have been spared from what those in the New Orleans area are, and will be,
experiencing in a few hours. We are praying for those in the way of this monster storm.

It has been downgraded to Cat 4 according to what we are watching on TV.

Big Bill

kenwoodallpromos
08-29-2005, 02:58 PM
I just heard roof is leaking in the Superdome.

doophus
08-30-2005, 03:04 AM
Lost power for only 18 hrs and thanks to all for your expressed concern. A few limbs down but otherwise AOK.

Without power until Monday midnight CDT, all of you know more of the details than me. The 30mi or so jog eastward probably made my day(s) much less exciting.

Terrible, terrible storm that will continue to spawn tornadoes and drop much, much water before it fizzles.

BetHorses!
08-30-2005, 08:11 AM
Glad you are ok. The Levee breaches are very bad news this morning. Unfortunately, many more probably lost their lives in places that are not accessible as of yet.

I'll donate to the Red Cross as they do an incredible job.

boxcar
08-30-2005, 12:51 PM
My heart is broken for those poor souls down there.

Last night I went to be thinking the city escaped the worst, but this morning when I got up I was shocked to hear that about 80% of the city is under water -- and the level is rising! And the engineers don't really know or understand why! They don't know from where the water is coming. And to complicate matters their pumps aren't running.

There are many fires going, people on rooftops, people buried beneath collapsed houses and buildings. The Red Cross said this will be their biggest relief effort yet -- more complex and wider in scope than hurricane Andrew in Florida -- bigger than 9/11 in New York.

If they don't get that water level down soon, various diseases could spread rampantly.

It is a horrible situation there -- beyond description -- beyond comprehension.

As an aside, it appears some on the D.U. site got their wish. They were hoping that the storm would wreak catastrophic proportions and cause widespread destruction and loss of life. Why? So that they could blame Bush. What kind of monsters would hope and wish for such things? It's beyond my comprehension...

Boxcar

lsbets
08-30-2005, 01:04 PM
I saw an interview on Fox with a guy whose wife was swept away by the water. He had a choice between grabbing his kid or his wife. Heartbreaking.

Bobby
08-30-2005, 01:17 PM
My hometown - where I wuz raised - instead of providing reststops &/or shelters for the fleeing residents of Miss and Louisiana, they set up speed traps, according to a letter to da editor in paper. Pitiful.

boxcar
08-30-2005, 01:37 PM
Bobby wrote:

My hometown - where I wuz raised - instead of providing reststops &/or shelters for the fleeing residents of Miss and Louisiana, they set up speed traps, according to a letter to da editor in paper.

If those "fleeing residents" were driving the way you write, the speed traps are understandable.

Pitiful.

Exactly!

Boxcar

RXB
08-30-2005, 01:55 PM
The wind damage and flooding look pretty bad. I'm just glad that the storm weakened somewhat and also shifted slightly to the east just prior to landfall. If it had only done one or the other, New Orleans would be in much worse shape. And if it had done neither-- I think it's safe to say that those doomsday predictions for the city would've come to fruition.

Best of luck to everyone along the Gulf Coast.

Bobby
08-30-2005, 02:10 PM
Bobby wrote:

My hometown - where I wuz raised - instead of providing reststops &/or shelters for the fleeing residents of Miss and Louisiana, they set up speed traps, according to a letter to da editor in paper.

If those "fleeing residents" were driving the way you write, the speed traps are understandable.

Pitiful.

Exactly!

Boxcar

I always figured you were an ass.

Tom
08-30-2005, 10:53 PM
doophus - glad to hear you area ok.....STAY that way!:ThmbUp:

boxcar
08-31-2005, 02:11 AM
Bobby wrote:

I always figured you were an ass.

Maybe so, but unlike you I don't do my cogitations with that part of my anatomy.

Boxcar

PaceAdvantage
08-31-2005, 04:37 AM
Jesus Christ, can't you fools stop your bickering, EVER? Even in threads like this, where the topic is utter devastation of thousands of people's LIVES??!!!

I can't begin to imagine what the people of New Orleans and areas of Mississippi are going through at the moment. What a horror story this is turning out to be...

And how depressing is it to watch the lowest form of human nature take hold of those who are looting and taking advantage of this epic destruction? Disgusting.

ljb
08-31-2005, 12:14 PM
Jesus Christ, can't you fools stop your bickering, EVER? Even in threads like this, where the topic is utter devastation of thousands of people's LIVES??!!!

I can't begin to imagine what the people of New Orleans and areas of Mississippi are going through at the moment. What a horror story this is turning out to be...

And how depressing is it to watch the lowest form of human nature take hold of those who are looting and taking advantage of this epic destruction? Disgusting.
Amen Brother, amen

boxcar
08-31-2005, 01:14 PM
I can't begin to imagine what the people of New Orleans and areas of Mississippi are going through at the moment. What a horror story this is turning out to be...

And how depressing is it to watch the lowest form of human nature take hold of those who are looting and taking advantage of this epic destruction? Disgusting.

Since you brought up the subject of looting, the silence on the Left is deafening about these "lowest forms". Recall all the criticism the Bush Admin. received right after we invaded Iraq about all the looting that took place over there? The Libs wanted to know why the military wasn't on top of the situation? Why didn't the military protect the national treasures? Why weren't we shooting the looters, etc.?

Well...where's the outcry against Democratic Gov. BlancLook for not ordering stronger action against these looters? She essentially has given them pretty much a free pass due to "higher pritorities" -- priorities dealing with the "essentials".

True enough, N.O. has other pressing problems -- so no doubt she'll get a free pass from the mainstream media and other liberal politicians. They'll understand and have compassion on this poor "weary" governor. But wouldn't it have been nice for the same media and the same group of politicians to have shown some understanding and compassion for the commanders and the troops over in Iraq? Perhaps they had higher priorities, too. Perhaps they had "essentials" they felt needed to be dealt with in the heat, fog and confusion of war.

http://www.gopusa.com/news/2005/august/0831_katrina_looting.shtml

Boxcar

lsbets
08-31-2005, 01:24 PM
Boxcar,

If you want to have a political thread about the looting and response to the hurrikane, please start a new one. Frankly I don't feel like wading through the bickering from both sides to read posts addressing the storm from non political angles.

boxcar
08-31-2005, 02:33 PM
lsbets wrote:

Boxcar,

If you want to have a political thread about the looting and response to the hurrikane, please start a new one. Frankly I don't feel like wading through the bickering from both sides to read posts addressing the storm from non political angles.

You did mean to say, "addressing the storm from...political angles", didn't you?
Just asking in case I post a "non political" post...on this thread. :confused:

Boxcar

McSchell_Racing
08-31-2005, 08:58 PM
Very saddened by the devasatation caused by this hurricane,Here in Hollywood Fl my power went out for 2 days had a lot of uprooted trees but NOTHING like these poor people on the gulf coast. The flooding here is NOTHING lie they have had and I am thankful it was only a Cat1 when it hit here in Broward. My thoughts and prayers are with these poor people.Glad to see the prez sending massive help into the region.
God Bless America

Tom
08-31-2005, 09:53 PM
No one has heard from our webmaster Rick from HTR.....his street was hit hard - very hard. One of the HTR guys found a forum where people from his area are posting looking for loved ones - one might be from his sister looking for him. God, it's like 9-11 all over again. I remeber back then checking this board every day to see if all our NY frends were OK. I knew andicap and PA were in the area - and a few others and it was a sinking feeling to suddenly realize that.

Today, Rick and our own Hurrikane are on my mind a lot - and then there is that ominous "dark pool" of water hiding howm any bodies? What horrors will be revealed when the water goes down?
This may well be the worst national disastor since the San Franciso quake of 1900 something.
I heard today that they spotted alligators in flooded neighborhoods!

Secretariat
09-01-2005, 01:50 AM
Heard that too Tom, and cotton mouths...They got to get that water out.

boxcar
09-01-2005, 01:57 AM
Tom, from everything I've heard and read thus far, this is the worst national disaster. Even the CEO of Red Cross said yesterday that this is going to be their biggest relief effort in the orginization's history.

That meteoriologist on FNC (at least I think it was Fox -- if not it was the Weather Channel) hit the nail squarely on the head when he predicted hours before landfall that if the eyewall of the storm passed east of NO, the results would be "catastrophic". This storm will certainly redefine this term for many years to come.

Boxcar

twindouble
09-01-2005, 07:10 PM
Here I am again sitting here counting my luck stars, it's difficult to comprehend what these victims of the storm are going through. Lucky stars indeed, after 65 years on this planet I've never been tested to the degree these people are and will be for some time to come. Not to mention all the other human tragedy that we all have seen through out our lives. Even when it comes to the wars that others have sacrificed for me and my family, in some ways I feal guilty knowing I've had a good life on the backs of others that gave so much to this country. I was just baby when the WW2 came along, still to young for the Koren war, married with children and down the draft list for Vietnam. Worst of all, I question weather I've given back enough or coped with everyday's ups and downs in a fitting manor. The price of gas, or a tax on me won't bother me the least bit because I've been dealt a winning hand from the beginning. Why, I don't know.


T.D.