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View Full Version : The Cat Outran The Fog Today!!!


DrugSalvastore
08-28-2005, 04:11 AM
There is NO WAY I'm going to get more than an hour of sleep tonight, good lord do I have a lot to talk about! Here goes.....

* MEMO to Andy Beyer, and the Beyer Speed figure team. If you give the 2-year-old first time starter Discreet Cat a lower beyer speed figure than Lost in the Fog, than you folks have NO GUTS at all.

The maiden first-time-starter Discreet Cat ran six furlongs in a supersonic 1:09.76 today. Lost In The Fog needed 1:22.56 to win the 7 furlong Grade 1 King's Bishop. THAT IS CUT AND DRY---the maiden 2yo Discreet Cat ran 2 Beyer points faster than Lost in the Fog did today...and if the Beyer folks split the variant, they should be ashamed of themsevles.

There was a similar situation on the 2003 Travers undercard, among nutcases like me who waste our entire life betting horses, it is still a very hotly debated topic. A horse named Pretty Wild won an ALW race in 1:21.50. A few races later Valid Video won the Grade 1 King's Bishop in 1:22.14. Despite running 0.64 seconds faster than the King's Bishop winner, the Beyer boys decided to give Valid Video a better speed figure by 3 points. Thus cheating Pretty Wild by 11 points because "it didn't make sense that Pretty Wild could run faster." Just like it 'doesn't make sense that Discreet Cat could run faster than Lost in the Fog.'

Well, IT MAKES PERFECT sense to me! Discreet Cat and Pretty Wild just so happend to have been dropped by THE SAME MOTHER! That's right, two horses, from the same mother, will have been CHEATED by the Beyer folks, for dazzlingly impressive wins on the Travers Stakes day card two years apart! It's mind-boggling!---but, IT GETS BETTER. The mother who dropped both Pretty Wild, and Discreet Cat has a little history herself with the Saratoga track. Her name is Pretty Discreet, and she won ONLY ONE stake race in her entire life. She won the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes with a 110 beyer in 1995, and just where do they run the Alabama Stakes? At Saratoga! Discreet Cat is by a sire named Forestry---has Forestry ever ran at Saratoga? Yea, one time, what did he do there? He just happened to win the Grade 1 King's Bishop in stakes record time of 1:21 flat with a 116 Beyer speed figure.

Bottom line, Discreet Cat was bred to absolutley ADORE Saratoga! His mother thrived here, his father thrived here, his brother thrived here--and he thrived here with one of the best individual performances I've seen from a debut horse in a while. It's an effort comparable with Ghostzapper, Birdstone, and Bellamy Road for most awesome debut win this decade. Does that mean that this horse is better than Lost in the Fog right now? No! Does it mean that this horse will subsequently ran figures comparable to LITF? NO! Does it mean that this horse ran faster than Lost in the Fog did today? YES!!!

The beyer speed figures are supposed to tell you how fast a horse ran on that day---"the sheets" throw the kitchen sink into the figures from a variable standpoint, The Beyer's are supposed to stear clear of that. Discreet Cat ran faster than Lost in the Fog today---I didn't notice any smoke and mirrors, now let see if Beyer has faith in the process that made him filthy rich--if Lost in the Fog gets a better fig than Discreet Cat, he doesn't have faith.

I respect Andy Beyer very much, he went to the same high school as I did, and he will be doing the Siro's Seminar at Saratoga tomorrow. I really wish I was there, so I could politley talk with him for a few minutes about this subject. If you are a person with passion for the sport of horse racing, you should care about something like this. But, if you are just a person with passion for race track politics, I'll say that this is also NYRA's fault, just to bring you into the mix of the discussion.

But, if you really want to know what will be keeping me up all night? What in the name of God was Jan Rushton wearing today??? That chick has lost it!

rastajenk
08-28-2005, 04:23 AM
Good post. I don't have anything to add, counter, or contribute, but you seem to have covered much ground very efficiently. Must have some strong coffee going tonight, or some kind of performance-enhancing additive. :)

nobeyerspls
08-28-2005, 08:32 AM
Drug Salvastore

Why the concern over subjective speed figures. Horses don't earn them, they are assigned by people who often fudge them to fit a situation. The fudging is more pronounced on days with highly visible stakes races. I don't even see that column when I handicap. The value of printing them in thr Form is that the weight from the extra ink might keep the pages from blowing around on a windy day.

Look at the cross-gender/cross-age problem with them. How would that fast two year old fare against older horses with lessor figures? The answer - not well. The same is true with fillies versus colts. They have even been forced to create pars for different tracks to solve the cross-track differences. So, forget about it. Horses are bred to win. The number in the earnings section has meaning, the beyer speed figure has none.

keilan
08-28-2005, 10:05 AM
Drugs,

Truly one of the most leading statements you have ever posted here “The Cat Outran The Fog Today”, absolutely pure rubbish. Somehow I had the impression that you knew something about this game other than rattling off pedigrees and statistics. Foggy was up by 5 in the stretch and was wrapped up -- but because you’re a final time clock-watcher you deduct a 2yo FTS ran the superior race.

Suff
08-28-2005, 10:22 AM
Pure rubbish is right...

I was helping CJ make figures for the Travers card. They both ran raw 110 speed figures, but the pace of Lost In The Fog was much, much faster.

After much debate at the Toga house, at around 4:30 am, we finally settled on the figures for the day.

Lost In The Fog
Pace 116 Speed 105

Discreet Cat
Pace 83 Speed 105

CJ wanted to split the variant, but I was able to make him see the light. Clearly, Lost In The Fog ran much faster overall.

Red Knave
08-28-2005, 10:25 AM
CJ wanted to split the variant, but I was able to make him see the light. Clearly, Lost In The Fog ran much faster overall.
Also, LITF looked his jockey AND his trainer in the eye in the paddock before the race.

keilan
08-28-2005, 10:36 AM
Geez suff -- you boyz don't sleep much, up making figures all night with cj. What do you guys do for fun, heckle TLG on the morning show :D

Good to hear you guys had a good day at the track yesterday, keep it going.

The Judge
08-28-2005, 11:08 AM
If the arguement is what Beyer to give what horse how does pace come into the equation? I didn't think Beyer even considered pace. So they need another justification to assign a higher number. If it's who ran a better race because of a faster pace that's a different arguement.

Suff
08-28-2005, 11:08 AM
Geez suff -- you boyz don't sleep much, up making figures all night with cj. What do you guys do for fun, heckle TLG on the morning show :D

Good to hear you guys had a good day at the track yesterday, keep it going.

we've been here since tuesday. 4 hours I have been to bed,

cj
08-28-2005, 11:29 AM
If the arguement is what Beyer to give what horse how does pace come into the equation? I didn't think Beyer even considered pace. So they need another justification to assign a higher number. If it's who ran a better race because of a faster pace that's a different arguement.

Correct, the Beyer should be the same. I'm curious to see what Beyer and TG do with this.

toetoe
08-28-2005, 11:40 AM
I'm sorry, I don't buy either argument, totally. I can't equate speeds at two different distances. Maybe you guys know how the avg. fractions correspond, the runups before the timer, etc. Someone mentioned age/gender differences. Someone also mentioned my pet peeve: "He won eased up," implying he could run much faster. The way to run faster is to run slightly easier fractions and power home the last 3/8 or so. The fact remains, he beat mediocre 'Speed' on an all-speed track. The one horse that closed ran a great race. Pinhead Borel had no choice of style. That is a Nafzger thing, it seems --- horses that close, are not win machines, and live to race another day.

the little guy
08-28-2005, 11:41 AM
LITF got a 105....the 2YO got a 106.

cj
08-28-2005, 12:07 PM
LITF got a 105....the 2YO got a 106.

Mark Hopkins must have read my post! ;)

Tom
08-28-2005, 01:06 PM
All the more reason to use CJ's - the pace-balanced figs.

Think of two football teams - both with 10-6 records. The first team beat last yer's SuperBowl Winner and 5 playouff teams on the road.
The other beat all teams with losing records. When they hook up in the playoffs, is it a pick'em?

DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 12:23 AM
I see Little Andy posted the Beyers, and Discreet Cat got a 106 to Lost In The Fog's 105. I didn't think the Beyer boys would have the guts to do it.

As for the Title "The Cat Outran The Fog" being somehow misleading---it was PAINFULLY obvious that I was talking about on the Beyer figure scale! That's kind of what the post was about! I am far from being a "figure player" or a "pedigree player."

I'm getting a real big kick out of how some of you think it is so common for a 2yo first time starter in August to run a better Beyer figure than a runaway Grade 1 winner on the same card. When is the last time that has happened?

As for Lost in the Fog running a better race when you add pace and trip into the equation--DUH!!! I'm glad you guys told me, it was very enlightning to hear. I would have never guessed!

I've always liked Lost In The Fog, but the time has now come for me to look to play against him. He's obviously faced nothing his entrie career, and his reputation is getting out-of-hand. The horse who pressed him yesterday in the King's Bishop was a NY bred with TWO LIFETIME STARTS to his credit. And it wasn't like that VERY lightly-raced horse pressed him through crazy fast fractions---the early fractions were nearly identical to what the 2yo's in the Hopeful ran.

Unlike Mike Watchmaker seems to, I have respect for Lost In the Fog, I just want no part of him at even money in the Breeders Cup Sprint---and frankly, I'm wouldn't be all that surprised if this horse doesn't even run in the Sprint. He is not for me at even money on BC Day. You guys can have him!

I bet Discreet Cat, got a nice price, and am fired up about the nice effort he put in. Has a 2yo first time starter in August ever ran anything close to a 106 beyer before??? I think it was a historic performance from a beyer standpoint.

DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 12:47 AM
I meant to say that I wouldn't be totally surprised if Lost In The Fog didn't run on Breeders Cup day---I think I said I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't run in the BC Sprint...which might have lead some to think that I was suggesting he might surface in the Mile or Classic.

The thing that's funny about message boards---like this one and others---if you ever bring up a pedigree stat or trend--or even mention pedigree stuff, people get the impression that you are incompetant because of it.

I once did a post on a message board, where I went into detail about how several offspring of Thunder Gulch ran VERY poorly at Keeneland and than rebounded to run great races at Churchill Downs next time out, at big prices. I was trying to justify Invisible Ink (a son of Thunder Gulch) as a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby in the post. I was dismissed as a moron by multiple people for including the pedigree stat in the post.

For those that don't remember---Thunder Gulch ran off-the-board in the Blue Grass at Keeneland at 6-to-5 odds and rebounded to win the Derby, at Churchill Downs,at 25-to-1 odds. That suggested to me that TG liked Churchill more than Keeneland. Spain (a daughter of TG) got beat in the Spinster at Keeneland, than came back to win the Breeders Cup Distaff at 56-to-1 odds at Churchill Downs. Invisible Ink (a son of TG) ran off the board in the Blue Grass, and came back to run 2nd at 50-to-1 odds in the Derby.

There have been cheaper offspring of Thunder Gulch, to stink at Keeneland and than thrive at Churchill as well.

Just last year Sense of Style ran off the board at odds-on in a stake at KEE. Knowing stuff like that is actually worthwhile---knowing stuff like that doesn't mean you are stupid.

DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 12:59 AM
If the arguement is what Beyer to give what horse how does pace come into the equation? I didn't think Beyer even considered pace. So they need another justification to assign a higher number. If it's who ran a better race because of a faster pace that's a different arguement.

EXACTLY!!! THANK YOU!!!

GMB@BP
08-29-2005, 09:55 AM
Correct, the Beyer should be the same. I'm curious to see what Beyer and TG do with this.

I thought the track got slower as the day went on, its hard for me to believe that every horse in the kings bishop ran slow. It also looked like some very fast horses were laboring that final furlong.....the maiden is legit but not sure he ran faster then LITF.

chickenhead
08-29-2005, 10:38 AM
Has a 2yo first time starter in August ever ran anything close to a 106 beyer before??? I think it was a historic performance from a beyer standpoint.

Frisco Star 2yo 1ster Aug 6th this year was given a 106 originally, revised down to 100, and since been moved back up a smidge to 102.

He wasn't loafing on the front end either like this Discreet Cat. If you're looking for the hottest 2 yo debut this year, you'd best take a look at Frisco Star.

The Judge
08-29-2005, 10:50 AM
Well like it or not that's what the makers of speed figures say they take care of, all adjustments, and that's what make them so powerful as Beyer would say they are "the truth and the light". They take into consideration the run-up, sex of the horse, distance, and even different tracks on different days and races the same day on the same track even if the track is getting slower or faster.This is what speed figures do. Some of these things they do real well,some not so well.

kenwoodallpromos
08-29-2005, 02:12 PM
So when they change the numbers later they are taking raw numbers, adjusting for certain factors, then adjusting the adjustments? Whay are adjustments days later necessary if the numbers are not subjective? Under what circumstances do the days later adjustments seem to occur? weather was not a factor.

fmazur
08-29-2005, 04:17 PM
Drugsal States>MEMO to Andy Beyer, and the Beyer Speed figure team. If you give the 2-year-old first time starter Discreet Cat a lower beyer speed figure than Lost in the Fog, than you folks have NO GUTS at all.

The maiden first-time-starter Discreet Cat ran six furlongs in a supersonic 1:09.76 today.
__________________________________________________ _____________
I am confused here as apparently the 2yo got a 106 Beyer to LITF's 105.

I just looked at the charts and see where LITF ran 6 fur. in 1:09 flat or 6 Beyer points faster than Discreet Cat's "supersonic 1:09 3/5.

It appears LITF should be at least 6 Beyer points higher than the 2yo. This doesn't even consider that LITF's 1/2 was 6 lengths faster than Discreet Cat.
The Beyers as given would suggest that D C could beat LITF at 6 fur. If these two met, I beleive LITF would go off at 1/9 and win by 10 or more.

Where am I going wrong?

skate
08-29-2005, 05:00 PM
a zur, you are correct.if what you say is right.

rastajenk
08-29-2005, 05:19 PM
Why should Fog get a higher Beyer, when it took him over 13 seconds to stagger home the last eighth? If you want to make a handicapping decision on a mythical matchup between these two, using only these two figs, you could easily make a bad decision; but one would have to wonder why you'd choose to ignore Fog's 116, 112, and everything else in his body of work so far.

The thing I keep wondering about after Saturday is what might have happened if Bellamy Rd had gone up against Fog. I'm not so sure Mr. Aleo would be crowing, "Nine for nine!"

DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 07:45 PM
[QUOTE=fmazur] I am confused here as apparently the 2yo got a 106 Beyer to LITF's 105.

I just looked at the charts and see where LITF ran 6 fur. in 1:09 flat or 6 Beyer points faster than Discreet Cat's "supersonic 1:09 3/5.

It appears LITF should be at least 6 Beyer points higher than the 2yo./QUOTE (file://\?/QUOTE)]

WOW!!! I'm starting to get the impression that quite a few of you folks don't even know what a beyer figures is. It's a FINAL TIME speed figure---Songandaprayer ran like 22, 44, and 1:08 in the Kentucky Derby, and than faded right off the TV screen! He didn't get a 115 beyer for running the fractions, because beyer figures measure final time!

If Lost In The Fog had run 1:07 to the six furlong pace call---and broke down inside the 1/8th pole---he wouldn't even get a beyer figure because he didn't finish the race.

The beyer figures only measure final time

OTM Al
08-29-2005, 07:55 PM
If you all think LitF was staggering home, you are really fooling yourself. Baze had him cruising under little more than a hand ride. He was wrapping it up. He'd already given a look or two behind him and had begun to dial the horse down. Why push the horse to do any more than he had to to win. That horse had it's ears up and was gliding along while the others exhauseted themselves trying to get a run at him. Discreet Cat ran a nice race (hey I even won a few bucks on him), but head to head he would have gotten screwed into the ground. How the BSF was earned is just as important as what it was.

DrugSalvastore
08-29-2005, 07:57 PM
Frisco Star 2yo 1ster Aug 6th this year was given a 106 originally, revised down to 100, and since been moved back up a smidge to 102.

He wasn't loafing on the front end either like this Discreet Cat. If you're looking for the hottest 2 yo debut this year, you'd best take a look at Frisco Star.

First of all, Frisco Star ran 5.5 furlongs, which is an oddball distance in American racing (although the new racing Sec. at Saratoga is trying like hell to make it an everyday distance)

Any final time speed figure earned at an oddball distance, or in a race over the turf, isn't worth a damn!! They originally gave the Mr. Sam I Am race a 98 in NY, it was a 5 furlong race for NY bred's that ended in a near photo finish. Speed Figures are pretty worthless in races at rarely run distances. They are very tough to make for those races as well.

Anyway, Frisco Star, was given a 100 beyer according to the Simulcast Weekley, which was published about four days after his debut win.

He won a maiden race at the Santa Rose fair by 8+ lengths at 4-to-5 odds for Lost In The Fog's trainer Greg Gilchrist. He did break a 23 year-old track record, but we are talking about Santa Rosa!

I'll take the Zito horse who finished 2nd to Discreet Cat---and you can have Frisco Star---we will see who does better down the line. Fair enough?

JustRalph
08-29-2005, 08:00 PM
Great Thread!!!

chickenhead
08-29-2005, 08:51 PM
I'll take the Zito horse who finished 2nd to Discreet Cat---and you can have Frisco Star---we will see who does better down the line. Fair enough?

Absolutely.

kenwoodallpromos
08-29-2005, 09:03 PM
I can appreciate the fact that you spotted the MD and that it ran fast- but for all your saying the figures are telling and that extra credit should be given because YOUR horse had its 1st race at a NY track and screw LITF's 1st race because he ran it on a CA track. It is well known that Beyer is prejudiced against CA racing and I guess this shows you are too, at least as to "Santa Rosa".
Either Beyer and or other speed figures use strict rules or they do not. If they do then you can apply your own "art" along with their "science". If they do not then all you have to do is decide how much of their "art" to use in your handicapping.
I really hope Discreet Cat turns out to be a lot better sprinter than LITF because the better horse owners seem to think they can take any horse with high figures and just run them as hard as possible early in routes and hope they do not burn out until after they wire.
I like horses that are as versatile as possible and have good early speed and some stamina. Overloading the distance races with horses without much stamina and jacking up the purses at the expense of sprints just makes for too little quality in both.
Odd distances- I look at the old track records of decades ago and see longer races than are run nowadays.
And the tracks made and groomed faster then still have the bulk of fast times.

sparkywowo
08-29-2005, 09:13 PM
In the post race wrap up Baze did not say I wrapped up on the horse when he was full of run, he said:

"Lost in the Fog was getting tired at the end and I had no trouble pulling him up, he didn't want to run much further" or something very similar to that.


The Beyer fig tells you something about the winner, but, it also tells you about the losers--just how fast did they run in defeat?

There are three steps: Observe, Quantify, Interpret. ALL THE NUMBERS REQUIRE THOUGHTFUL INTERPRETATION.

However, the point of the thread was, and is, The Straightfoward Calculation of Saturday's Figures showed the 2yo ran a higher number than LITF. And, that is how the numbers should be assigned, not tweaked. Then, when you go to handicap a race, you must apply Thoughtful Intepreation of their meaning.

And, the second point of the thread was the 2yos number was sparkling when compared to other 2yo numbers, and was probably not a fluke, because this particular runner has a breeding that suggests he fits Saratoga "hand in glove". Will he repeat the number elsewhere? That is a good question. Did he run very fast at Saratoga? The answer is YES.

Thank you.

cj
08-29-2005, 09:22 PM
It is well known that Beyer is prejudiced against CA racing ...

How do you come up with this nonsense?

It would be really nice if some of the people that posted about Beyers had the slightest clue about how they are made or what they actually measure.

the little guy
08-29-2005, 09:30 PM
How do you come up with this nonsense?

It would be really nice if some of the people that posted about Beyers had the slightest clue about how they are made or what they actually measure.It's also, apparantly, an impossibility.

laff
08-29-2005, 09:37 PM
You mention that Harry Aleo might not be crowing if Bellamy Road had run in the Kings Bishop. Why don't you get on DRF online and search for the story about Bellamy Road. In David Grening's story Zito said that he chose the Travers for several reasons, including the presence of LITF in the Kings Bishop. Zito said said that if for some reason, LITF did not enter the Kings Bishop on Wednesday, he might change his mind. So I guess we'll never know, Zito decided against it. Maybe for good reason.

rastajenk
08-29-2005, 09:46 PM
May be. I just think that until Fog races against some quality runners and not the second-stringers he's been facing, the jury (meaning, of course, my opinion) is still out. I believe a classy runner like Bellamy Rd can stay with him; I don't care what Zito says or does.

laff
08-29-2005, 09:51 PM
Well he's beaten everything he's ran against. Like Gilchrist said, he can't go around to all the barns and force trainers to put up their horses. Who knows if Bellamy Road had been in the race. But Zito didn't want to do it. He's the trainer. But I happen to know Harry. And he's a good guy. And I know if I owned LITF I'd be crowing too. I'm happy for him.

plainolebill
08-29-2005, 09:53 PM
I think it was a historic performance from a beyer standpoint.

Forest Music?

rastajenk
08-29-2005, 10:19 PM
I'm happy for him, too. I like the story. But I'm not convinced he's a superstar superhorse, not when there are others probably just as good that have a little more ambition.

ezpace
08-29-2005, 10:57 PM
The proprietary 1948 speed figs I have without adjustment for age or pace or for that matter any PAR as all others use.. ,make the comparison difference a 3 point faster race by the 2 yearold . I use these in conjunction with Cj's great pace adjusted figs .Until CJ made that last adjustment on the turf number construction I used the 1948's by themselves they are awesome. I use CJ's final fraction fig for tie also. fwiw.

ezpace
08-29-2005, 11:03 PM
I think that Zito made the right choice Re. not hooking LTIF. Old wise trainer told me one time in KY always seek the weakest field on a layoff horse and that 6.5 and 7.0 we're the hardest to win when coming back off one. May have some merit after observing at major ovals last few years.. fwiw

andicap
08-29-2005, 11:31 PM
It's also, apparantly, an impossibility.

Andy, I'd be interested in your opinion on a subject mentioned here: when a jockey appears to be "wrapping up" on a horse and not pushing him, do you think the horse could have run faster if the jockey had him fully extended?

The Sheets people opine that the horse will NOT run any faster and I've been curious about this issue.

the little guy
08-30-2005, 08:26 AM
I believe that in those situations horses run pretty much as fast as they can. Obviously if a horse is eased up he or she probably could have run a LITTLE faster, but for the most part they run as fast as they can, at least on that given day.

I always find it ridiculous when an announcer ( of course, these days I find a lot of what Durkin says ridiculous ) says " could have won by a lot more ". How much do they think is a lot? A length? Certainly they don't really believe the horse could have gone a second ( six lengths ) faster.

Valuist
08-30-2005, 09:40 AM
Here's a theoretical question for those of you who make your own numbers. In this theoretical race, horses A, B, C and D are facing each other again in a claiming race. 2 weeks ago, horse A won by 2 lengths with horse B second by a length and a half in front of horse C. Horse D was 5 more lengths and several finish positions behind horse C. Horse A received a 70 Beyer, horse B a 64, horse C a 61 and horse D a 49.

Now these horses run again and the finish positions are almost identical, give or take a length or so here and there. Logic says you should expect a 70, 64, 61 etc. but the teletimer says that all of them improved 15 points. Do you take the teletimer as being correct? Ragozin/Friedman would. Beyer, Brown and myself would conclude there was an error and would assign the expected 70 to the winner. What would you do?

GMB@BP
08-30-2005, 10:26 AM
I believe that in those situations horses run pretty much as fast as they can. Obviously if a horse is eased up he or she probably could have run a LITTLE faster, but for the most part they run as fast as they can, at least on that given day.

I always find it ridiculous when an announcer ( of course, these days I find a lot of what Durkin says ridiculous ) says " could have won by a lot more ". How much do they think is a lot? A length? Certainly they don't really believe the horse could have gone a second ( six lengths ) faster.

This is not entirely true, some of the very fast horses may be able to loaf to the pace call and basically cruise all the way home winning under a long hold. Now they probably could not have ran that final furlong much faster but they may have been able to run the entire race faster if needed....so its possible they could have run 6 lengths faster. This is rare and in general I agree with what you said.

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 12:52 PM
First, I said Beyer, not his numbers show Ca prejuduce; his book "Picking Winners" has a number of his digs at Ca tracks and racing. He suggests making numbers while drinking Jack Daniels everywhere but Ca, where you can drink "wine spitzer".
Email Sam Spear at radio station KNBR and ask about his interview of Andy Beyer 2005 the morning of the KY Derby- I Quote- "California racing stinks".
It is obvious Drugs pumps up racing at the Saratoga track because DC's line has it as a "horses for courses" track, but seems to conveniently forget that LITF is proven at 7 different track, most considered major east coast tracks.
Now AA is copying LITF's parading on the tracks when not running. Of course that is Eclipse politics.
The idea that Baze said LITF was getting tired does not surprise me- LITF is going back to wearing bar shoes again. You can consider his latest race in relation to that if you wish.

GMB@BP
08-30-2005, 12:55 PM
First, I said Beyer, not his numbers show Ca prejuduce; his book "Picking Winners" has a number of his digs at Ca tracks and racing. He suggests making numbers while drinking Jack Daniels everywhere but Ca, where you can drink "wine spitzer".
Email Sam Spear at radio station KNBR and ask about his interview of Andy Beyer 2005 the morning of the KY Derby- I Quote- "California racing stinks".
It is obvious Drugs pumps up racing at the Saratoga track because DC's line has it as a "horses for courses" track, but seems to conveniently forget that LITF is proven at 7 different track, most considered major east coast tracks.
Now AA is copying LITF's parading on the tracks when not running. Of course that is Eclipse politics.
The idea that Baze said LITF was getting tired does not surprise me- LITF is going back to wearing bar shoes again. You can consider his latest race in relation to that if you wish.

dont want to get into this whole debate but I would say that beyer does not do anything different then most of the east coast media does.

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 01:13 PM
That is very possible.
Point of the "DC Beat LITF" thread- Drugs specifically used comparisons to LITF and downgrading the SR track to prove his point that DC loved the Saratoga track. All well and good- LITF loved 7 different tracks so far.
Drugs also started this thread by saying that if they use split variants the Beyers people "have no guts". ?. I do not know why that would prove Beyers people intimidated by Ca connections. With that statement I'm lost in the fog.
I could care less about Beyer or Drugs not liking Ca tracks- I just object to them degrading horses shipping from the west coast to win on the east coast by mixing apples and oranges to do it. Give the westies their due at least in the 1 race where they beat the easties, without the BS excuses. And the announcers can quit their cutsey interviews asking how LITF invading NY compares to the US military invading Europe. I'm not stupid enough to miss that one. Neither was LITF's owner!LOL!!

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 01:29 PM
Currently online, Andy Beyer interview excerpt DRF Derby Chat on KY Derby day 2005-
"illini82: Q: why are the California horses getting no respect?
ANDY_BEYER: Because they stink. A winning figure of 98 in the Santa Anita Derby is pretty pitiful."
He also said if anything BR's 120 may have been too low.
Beyer has not not thought much of Ca tracks, racing, or horses since at least the 1970's as far as I can tell- I guess started from his opinion that Ca is one of the biggest doping states.
I gave Discreet Cat its due. But I'm not the one who entered it in a maiden race instead of a 7f grade 1 the same day at its favorite track. :D

GMB@BP
08-30-2005, 01:32 PM
Currently online, Andy Beyer interview excerpt DRF Derby Chat on KY Derby day 2005-
"illini82: Q: why are the California horses getting no respect?
ANDY_BEYER: Because they stink. A winning figure of 98 in the Santa Anita Derby is pretty pitiful."
He also said if anything BR's 120 may have been too low.

thats a fair statement, cant say I disagree despite the derby win....I do disagree with any assertion that the racing amonst the best horses is not at the top level in california.

fmazur
08-30-2005, 01:50 PM
Rasta states
May be. I just think that until Fog races against some quality runners and not the second-stringers he's been facing, the jury (meaning, of course, my opinion) is still out. I believe a classy runner like Bellamy Rd can stay with him; I don't care what Zito says or does.
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Out of curiosity, just which "Classy" runners has Bellamy Road beaten??
Do you consider Scrappy T to be classy? If so I guess LITF is a dud and Bellamy Road is a star.

LITF is unbeaten and so far unchellenged, while Bellamy Road has lost several times and twice by 10 plus lgths.

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 02:04 PM
From Xpressbets, same owner as SA:
"Giacomo is the 15th Santa Anita Derby starter to win the big event at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. The others were Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Winning Colors, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol, Affirmed, Majestic Prince, Lucky Debonair, Swaps, Deterimine, Hill Gail and Gallahadion." I think a few of those were within the last 30 or so years. Why does a CA 98 beat higher east coast Beyers? Do the easties burn themselves out early? Maybe Ca produces more top routers with stamina than early speed types. Maybe LITF is the CA exception, being a top sprinter. Don't worry, AA is still touted as the leader of the 3 yr old division. And may begin serious training soon.
I will bet Discreet Cat next time he runs at better than even odds.

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 02:17 PM
I just saw the DC/Superfly race chart- DC led at the 1/2, Superfly 2nd at the 1/2 by 7 lengths. It was a 2 horse race with DC 2 in front most of the way.
I like that DC was able to relax on the lead- lost a little on the turn- DC must take to training well.

cj
08-30-2005, 02:19 PM
From Xpressbets, same owner as SA:
"Giacomo is the 15th Santa Anita Derby starter to win the big event at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. The others were Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Winning Colors, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol, Affirmed, Majestic Prince, Lucky Debonair, Swaps, Deterimine, Hill Gail and Gallahadion." I think a few of those were within the last 30 or so years. Why does a CA 98 beat higher east coast Beyers? Do the easties burn themselves out early? Maybe Ca produces more top routers with stamina than early speed types. Maybe LITF is the CA exception, being a top sprinter. Don't worry, AA is still touted as the leader of the 3 yr old division. And may begin serious training soon.
I will bet Discreet Cat next time he runs at better than even odds.

Many of those Santa Anita Derby horses had the best Beyers in the Derby, or right near the top.

The 98 Beyer won because the race fell in his lap, brutal pace, bad trips etc. It happens every day all around the country, just that most of those races aren't called the Kentucky Derby. It doesn't mean the Beyer was wrong.

Trivia quiz...what Beyer figures did Giacomo get in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont?

Good luck getting even money on Discreet Cat.

chickenhead
08-30-2005, 03:05 PM
C'mon guys...we've already lost Tupac and Biggie...haven't we learned anything yet? Is Beyer next? :D

Enough already.

Seriously though, high level racing racing is weak everywhere. Fragile horses, early retirements, illegal drugs, non competetive fields.

Most hype horses are not worthy of the hype, regardless of where they run.

kenwoodallpromos
08-30-2005, 04:44 PM
I am asking informational and rhetorical questions as response to other posts on this thread- In earlier posts I have stated my belief that Beyer numbers are at least as accurate as any other single commercial speed figure- and I fully realize that 20 horses strung across the track makes for possible occurances of other variables. Actually it was Drugs who suggested the Beyer people may fudge the numbers- not me!
Disceet Cat and LITF's beyers numbers are what they are intended to be- a snapshot of the adjusted final time or projected final time at one time in one race in that particular race situation. As such it should be given that much weight until a pattern emerges or a future race can be predicted to run very similar.
In that vein I will axiously await DC's sprint stakes wins at GP,CRC, and every major NY track prior to becoming a 4 yr old. If that occurs I will make my case for the future 9-0 horse to be the 3 yr old eclipse winner!