NFL week 1

[Valuist]

I like to bet week 1 early; its not difficult to tell which way the public will bet and its always important to get the best number.

DETROIT -1.5 over Green Bay. When this came out on Pinny over a month ago, GB was actually favored by 1.5. The line is now Det -3. GB is getting old and the D is very bad. Detroit looks to be a team that could be on the rise.

BALTIMORE +3 over Indy. At home on the carpet, Indy is as good as anybody. But take them off the carpet and put them against a physical team like NE, Balt, Pitt or Jax and they struggle. Their D is undersized and built for the turf, not grass. Look for Jamal Lewis to run wild. Getting points with the home team and superior defense here. Bets (and championships) are won with defense, not offense.

Chic/Washington UNDER 34.5 The number is still 34.5 but I expect will be 33.5 or 33 by gametime. 34 is a key number; We've got 2 solid defenses and 2 weak offenses who will concentrate on running the ball which will keep the clock ticking.

Cincy -2.5 over Cleveland. This one is now Cin -3 with a steep moneyline. Cincy may contend for a playoff spot and Cleveland is really lacking in talent. Should be a long year for the Browns.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Take the other team! 1 dead, the QB promoted heavily locally worth 50 million is in a MD claimer. Week 1 will tell if Dick's son can coach.

[Fwizard]

Damn--those picks all look pretty solid--I might have I few of those myself--Good Luck!!!

[Valuist]

Thx. We'll see. Every year there's a team or two that comes out of the woodwork to become good and there's usually several supposedly good teams who lay eggs. Last year, Seattle was the "trendy" early pick to become good. Didn't work out w/them.

[kingfin66]

Thx. We'll see. Every year there's a team or two that comes out of the woodwork to become good and there's usually several supposedly good teams who lay eggs. Last year, Seattle was the "trendy" early pick to become good. Didn't work out w/them.

That's because the defense was horrid. This year, Seattle's defense should be decent. Not great, but decent. The offense will also be good as long as the receivers can hang onto a few balls. Seattle won't be the trendy pick this season, Arizona looks to have the lock on that, but they could sneak up on people. Time will tell.

[Valuist]

Kingfin-

Now we know why Koren Robinson had trouble catching the ball; he was hung over. So who will be the 2nd WR? Engram or Jurivicious?

[dav4463]

I think the surprise teams in the NFL this year will be the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings. Remember this post when they both go deep in the playoffs !

[kingfin66]

It should be Engram. There's not even a guarantee that Joe J. will make the team. Seattle has too many WRs and there will be a numbers game that will result in a veteran being cut.

[Valuist]

I'm not sure if we can count Minnesota as a surprise because quite a few prognosticators think they can get to the NFC Championship game and possibly the Super Bowl in a weak NFC.

[yak merchant]

Valuist:

Do like the Ravens week 1.
Not many secondaries match up well with Indy, but the Ravens do. And well Indy's defense is Indy's defense.


Kingfin:

Last year Seattle's defense suffered more injuries than a MASH unit. At one point last year their linebackers probably couldn't have started for U of Miami. I agree they should be better, but I actually think they downgraded on both corners, so they'll have their struggles defensively but I guess we'll see

[Valuist]

It will be interesting to see how the Saints will be affected. Will they use this as a motivational tool and play harder? Or will they be distracted? I can see both happening; they start the season with a chip on their shoulders and highly motivated. But if things start to go bad later in the year, the distractions could catch up with them. I see Pinnacle took the Saints season win total off the board.

[Valuist]

Re: the Seahawks WRs, it looks like they just added Peter Warrick, who the Bengals released earlier in the week.

[Bobby]

Valuist what do you like in College? Do you see any surprise teams?

[Valuist]

I don't follow college too much. I follow the Big Ten a bit and a little MAC, being an alum. From what I've heard, USC is a solid favorite to repeat.

[Valuist]

Bobby-

On second thought, this week I may take Ohio State -1 vs Texas. Texas is a bully team. Against an overmatched opponent, they will pile drive them into the ground. When they get punched in the face by a tough opponent, they go running home crying. I see that happening Saturday night.

Adding one more NFL total: Tampa/Minnesota UNDER 43. Minnesota added a lot of defensive strength to their team and lost the big deep threat in Moss. Last year, when Moss was out, they played much more conservatively. As for Tampa, they have severe problems on the left side of their offensive line and will have new starters in both the blind side tackle and guard positions. I look for Gruden to try to protect Griese (as well as both new starters) by trying to establish the run.

[GPneighbor]

Take Denver (-4.5) in Week #1
Play the Dolphins to win LESS then six games this year.


This Dolphin team has so many question marks on offense it’s hard to see them putting up many points. In the new high scoring NFL this is a real problem. If this team starts turning the ball over, as I suspect they will, this could get ugly fast. It is difficult to see the Fish winning more then five games this year.

The new 3-4 defense will allow Jason Taylor to roam and make plays but I do not think it will be enough. Some quarterbacks could be rattled but this is Jake Plummer and he has seen it all before.

The last three years Denver has covered on opening day with high scoring offense. (23-16 win against the Rams, 30-10 win against the Bengals and a 34-24 win against the Chiefs.) The Fish lost their opening game last year 7-17 against Tennessee and two years ago they lost their opener as a 13.5 favorite against the Texans. (20-21)

[Valuist]

I'll take my 4-1 week 1 in the NFL.

The lone loss was Indy and I was pretty impressed by them. They've had the best offense in the NFL for a few years but the question marks were always on the defensive side. Last year, they showed they could force turnovers on D but still were suspectible to the run and not as good on the road. Last night they played on the road, on grass, against a physical team and maybe the most punishing back in the league and totally shut him down. All the recent draft picks on defense may be coming around and add Corey Simon to the mix and this team just might get past New England this year.

[BetHorses!]

Val,

Good Job, as usual

[Valuist]

Bet Horses-

Thx. I see you had a winning week as well.

[cj]

I'll take my 4-1 week 1 in the NFL.

...All the recent draft picks on defense may be coming around and add Corey Simon to the mix and this team just might get past New England this year.

And into the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh? They looked damn good. Really, really good.

[Bobby]

I still think Indy's defense is suspect.

And as much as I like Peyton MAnning, he doesn't play his best in the playoffs.


Also, glad to TO's team get beat last nite. Any team he plays for I root against.

[Valuist]

Pittsburgh will be tough also. Rothlesberger is 15-0 now in the regular season. I think we are seeing some changing of the guard. Green Bay has the opportunity to be a very bad team this year; Buffalo might be the most underrated team in the NFL; if they were in the NFC, they'd have a great shot at getting to the Super Bowl. Philly would be no higher than 4th (and possibly 5th) in the AFC.

[Valuist]

One thing to add about the Indy/Pitt comparison; Indy won on the road against a very solid Baltimore team who has one of the top defenses in the NFL. Pitt won at home against a very bad Tennessee team. Definitely a class discrepancy in opponents.

[cj]

One thing to add about the Indy/Pitt comparison; Indy won on the road against a very solid Baltimore team who has one of the top defenses in the NFL. Pitt won at home against a very bad Tennessee team. Definitely a class discrepancy in opponents.

I wouldn't go that far. The Raven's offense is, and has been, horrific, for a few years. And then they are forced to go with Anthony Wright? All I can say is good back or not, good luck Jamaal!

[Valuist]

Baltimore's passing game is certainly among the worst but the defense and Jamal Lewis will be enough to win them 10 games. Given a choice, I'd rather have a good running game and bad passing game than the other way around. That defense is also bound to score them some points. McAlister should've had a TD on Sunday night.

[toetoe]

Give me the ratio. Monday's quarterbacks, McNabb and Vick, looked bad, and the defenses looked good, but in what proportion?

[BetHorses!]

Bet Horses-

Thx. I see you had a winning week as well.


I just noticed the Ravens cost us both a sweep