Beyer-New betting ideas

[karlskorner]

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/sports/columns/beyerandrew

[superfecta]

He considers the super to be a less than spectacular bet?He should study the pool sizes.It should be a surprise that the average super pays so much more than the other bets, considering the track takes 25%and the pool is smaller than the tri or exacta pools.
The bet doesn't need any help,it will survive.The only thing that can help is to guarantee an amount to be put in the pool.but tracks won't do that because it would be too expensive to do an entire card,and the risk of the track having to put its money in would be great.Most people consider it to be too hard to hit,a waste of money.I should say most handicappers.Its been said it doesn't pay nearly what it should compared to the odds of the horses that are in it.But the odds are for the win spot,not ITM.And you are dealing with a finite pool.If you hit a super with all longshots and the pool is 5 grand,thats all you get,even if you pick 4 horses at 100-1.i just hope it stays out of fashion to the professional player and syndicates.

[Rpd]

Superfecta,

I realize that betting the superfecta would depend on how contentious the race is, but do you have any general guidelines of properly wagering on the superfecta?

Thanks,

[Rick]

superfecta,

The only thing that bothers me about superfectas (and trifectas) is the IRS take out of it. The more horses in the bet, the more of an advantage an intelligent player should have, in my opinion. But win bets and exactas are mostly under the radar, so to speak. That being said, I do know a VERY successful superfecta player, although he doesn't really need the money to live on. The same thing could be said of Pick 6's although they tend to be dominated more by syndicates and possibly harder to beat. What are your views on the subject?

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Rick
superfecta,

The only thing that bothers me about superfectas (and trifectas) is the IRS take out of it. The more horses in the bet, the more of an advantage an intelligent player should have, in my opinion. But win bets and exactas are mostly under the radar, so to speak. That being said, I do know a VERY successful superfecta player, although he doesn't really need the money to live on. The same thing could be said of Pick 6's although they tend to be dominated more by syndicates and possibly harder to beat. What are your views on the subject? You bet it bothers me that the IRS gets its cut after one wins a large amount at one time.We had a lengthy post about the IRS on this,maybe you can still find it and read it.I went into detail why I say winnings should be tax free.But some disagree.I would be in favor of a percentage of every bet,win or lose,would go staight to Uncle Sam,and take the WG-2 out of gambling.But a raise in take is widely seen as a bad thing.To me a 1 or 2% raise in takeout is negligible for the single bettor,but as a whole,for all wagers it would raise more money.Spread the punishment around.But I really think the gov.would then say,"hey if 2%raises this much cash,how about 5%,10% etc.Then state and local would want more as well.
The super is a unique bet,like the pick six,in which hitting one or two can make your whole year.You really can't put other wagers into this special class.

[freeneasy]

seems to me theres a number of ways thr super can be looked at.
first, considering your bankroll you should play accordingly. that is if you take $50 to tthe track you can make up several inexpensive tickets ranging from $1 to $12
and if your just starting to get your feet wet with this kind of bet, its probably best to wait, and not make this bet until you feel you have a horse that "aint gonna lose", and even better if you feel you got's the horse that "cant miss the place"
you can take it seriously or have some inexpensive fun with it.
when I bet it, I usually just take it as a flyer bet and put $4 to $12 into it. Hey, whos to say 5'll getcha athousen.
and if I feel fully confident of a winning horse, I might get a little more serious IF iam also convinced the other plays I have to make to fill out next 3 spots will not dissapoint AND at the same time give me a minimum payback of at least $6-$700 and up. in this case Ill put in a $48 ticket with something like 4 horses for the place, and 5 for the 3 and 4 spots. I played this on monday and had the 1,2,4,5, and 6 spots but got beat out for the 3rd by a 70-1 shot.

one last word, there will be times when your top 4-5 horses will sweep the board and the payoff would have solved all your problems, at least for the next $10,000 had you of bet your picks, well all I got to say is, DONT DO IT, and I think everybody knows what I mean by that. DO NOT DO IT. Cause believe me pal Iam here to tell ya, WE"VE all been there and done that. You miss a monster payoff in one race and start chasin it down with some whimsical follow up bets hopin to "hit",... couple of races later your in the toilet. Trying to catch the past with the future will put you in a bad tailspin. If you ever get there press eject dude, press eject

[MikeDee]

If you really want some excitement and large pools for a super in addition to a large field lower the min cost for a single combinatiion to say 10 or 25 cents with a $5 total min bet. Let all the betters who want some perecentage of big pay off play.

I'm not interested in throwing a $100 at a super but I'ld go for $10 if I could pick enough combinations to make it interesting.

I'ld like to see some track try it. One day a couple of large field supers with a reduced min wager......might even be more fun then the rock concert.

[freeneasy]

oh yeah Mike, oh yeah, I just so absolutely agree with you it hurts for cryin out loud.
Imean do you know how many betters out there would love to see a bet like the super lowered to a 50 cent minimum?... oh just about everone
I have long, oh so very long been an adocate of a 50 cent pk6, you cant imagine
I mean think of it, instead of a single combination for $2 youd get 4 combos at 50cts,
now if Iam an average $4 to $8 pk 6 player, and for a oppertunity to make an 8play combination for $4 instead of a 4play combination for the same $4, well all I can say is, how many times have you come this close to hitting the p6 because the combinations you wanted to play would simply cost to much and you had to leave a winning horse or two out of your bet and they beat you

[superfecta]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Rpd
[B]Superfecta,

I realize that betting the superfecta would depend on how contentious the race is, but do you have any general guidelines of properly wagering on the superfecta?[QUOTE][i][B]


I'm sorry,Rpd,I didn't see your post till today.My inclination is to bet the more contentious races, those with lukewarm favorites.Reason being,by golly if I'm right,I want to maximize my profit potential.
I don't want to hit alot of races,I want to win alot of money when I do.I see so many bettors hoot and holler when they just hit a super,even when its a small field and low priced payoffs.
Must be the thrill of just hitting one I guess.
Anyhow I bet small,maybe too small for most.I usually don't go over 8-12 bucks for the whole race,and that would include a saver bet of some sort,(if I decide to do one)usually another super bet using horses that are lower odds or maybe a logical tri.These hit more,pay less,and ease my losing streaks.But I don't get excited when they hit,just use the money to pad my betting bankroll.
I would suggest you look at what is working for you,such as: you can reasonably narrow down contenders that are ITM,on a consistent basis,or maybe when you find a horse at 4/1 or better he wins for you.Look to what you can do,don't start betting supers if you only can get the winner and your other contenders don't come close(all or nothing-I either pick the winning horse or don't even come close)
Don't use boxes trying to hook longshots with favorites,too much money.If you like the favorite for the win, bet him on top.Don't try to force a bet or make one hoping a longshot will win.Only time to pick a longshot is when you think he can win,not because he's 20/1.
Try to visualize what may happen during the race,who will battle for the lead,who will settle off the pace,who will close.Its been said the four best horses will not finish that way.the horses you think may win,one might but the others will be affected by how the winner wins.they might stay ITM,but more likely one or more will fall out ,and horses that have no chance to win will get up for minor awards.My favorite little angle is to handicap who I think will win,maybe keep a contender for second,but look to the non contenders with late speed to finish third or fourth.
In a roundabout way I'm playing the exacta,trying to hit that bet but with longer prices 3rd&4th,it makes the payoff much better than dropping a load on the exacta.With relatively little capital.Hope that helps you,but feel free to ask any more questions,but bear in mind you get what you pay for

:)

[freeneasy]

yes indeed you do Super, good word
I taught myself a long long time ago, that if you cant hit an exacta and make money, then you aint got no bussiness betting the tri's, and if you cant make money on the tris, then you aint got no bussiness betting the superfecta, and if you cant make money betting the doubles then you sho aint got no bussiness betting the pk 3s

maybe focus on a spacific area till you become proficient in it, till you accuire a decent knack for it. your interested in the supers? hey, fine, have at it, but as far as its senseable to me, these things have their own level, one being on a higher to reach plato then the other and if you cant get decent enough at one level you probably wont be very good at the next

like I say, its all in the water , so everybody into the pool, but before you jump in make sure you know how to swim a little

I mean Iam not trying to take all the fun out of your day, hey, you like the lure of those tris, supers, and pk3s? then bet em when you like em. theres plenty of time to learn this game, and nobody said you cant have any fun doing it

[superfecta]

yeah free,got to learn to walk before you run.
Its like Dirty Harry said "mans got to know his limitations".It would not be crazy to say most bettors have no business betting exotics because they can't find winners to start with.But I guess I should be happy there is "dumb" money in these pools.I think the idea of 50 cent wagers might not be a bad thing.It might get more lottery players in the pool.Always can use those guys.
I have read various articles about some large scale players that bet enough combos to get an average return of 5% on tris(don't know if they play supers )Boggles my mind that they can ride out losing streaks,but I guess they bet enough combos to minimize long losing streaks.

[Rpd]

Superfecta,

Thank you very much for your answer. It has provoked an interesting new possibility for my overall wagering schema.

I appreciate your time!