Jockeys...

[sealord]

I was at Arlington Park this summer, and sat in on a discussion with two jockeys, Razo Jr. and Kuntzweiler (seriously) that were doing a "Get in the Game" PR bit. I asked them what percentage of horse races were determined by the jockeys. Razo Jr. said 15%! This seems awfully low to me, but how bout you experienced 'cappers? I could see the jockey having more impact on certain races as opposed to others, such as turf routes for instance. Thoughts?

[Ron]

I don't really look at it that way. I'll hardly look twice at a 30-1 with J Rose aboard but will look curiously at a 30-1 with Prado aboard. I don't really know what I'm trying to say.

[SAL]

My thought is that a good jockey can't make an inferior horse win, but a bad jockey can make a superior horse lose.

That being said, I prefer my longer priced horses to have riders with low win percentages. It doesn't help if a horse you think might be a price is ridden by Jerry Bailey.

[Tom]

Some jockeys excel under certain conditions. Off tracks is a good example - some riders really do well in mud while others dn't sem to have the knack.

At Saratoga, some riders are very skilled on the grass - some show not only flat bet win profits, but place profits as well.

It's not that they make the horse run faster, but allow the horse to have the trip it needs to do its best ( off the dead rail, not too wide, close enough to make a move, etc.
Jockey

# Str

W

P

$W

$P

W%

WP%

W ROI

P ROI

Bridgmohan Shaun

158

13

17

$ 228.10

$ 341.80

8%

19%

$ 0.72

$ 1.08

Castellano Javier

223

24

25

$ 426.90

$ 461.60

11%

22%

$ 0.96

$ 1.03

Murphy Cyril

23

8

2

$ 76.00

$ 54.20

35%

43%

$ 1.65

$ 1.18

Prado Edgar S.

293

48

59

$ 493.00

$ 668.20

16%

37%

$ 0.84

$ 1.14

Dominguez Ramon A.

17

6

1

$ 55.30

$ 33.40

35%

41%

$ 1.63

$ 0.98

Guidry Mark

95

7

1

$ 287.90

$ 115.60

7%

8%

$ 1.52

$ 0.61

Velazquez John R.

288

57

38

$ 607.80

$ 538.30

20%

33%

$ 1.06

$ 0.93

[Tom]

Wow! That didn't work!


Try this:
Jockey # Str W P $W $P W% WP% W ROI P ROI

Bridgmohan Shaun 158 13 17 $228.10 $341.80 8% 19% $0.72 $1.08
Castellano Javier 223 24 25 $426.90 $461.60 11% 22% $0.96 $1.03
Murphy Cyril 23 8 2 $76.00 $54.20 35% 43% $1.65 $1.18
Prado Edgar S. 293 48 59 $493.00 $668.20 16% 37% $0.84 $1.14
Dominguez Ramon 17 6 1 $55.30 $33.40 35% 41% $1.63 $0.98
Guidry Mark 95 7 1 $287.90 $115.60 7% 8% $1.52 $0.61
Velazquez John R. 288 57 38 $607.80 $538.30 20% 33% $1.06 $0.93

[nobeyerspls]

When you select a jockey, you want the rider to fit the horse. There are good and bad gate jockeys, some that get a horse to relax more, and some that are strong enough to control even the most unruly.
If you think of jockey performance as falling within a range, the best among them can give bad rides and the worst can outperform their record in a given race. I want a competent journey man on my longshot plays. With few exceptions, I do not even consider who is riding.

[cnollfan]

I agree with both Sal and Nobeyerspls. If I've selected a longshot for proprietary reasons independent of the jockey, the last thing I want is for John Q. Public to be betting on it because Bailey is riding.

Having the rider's style fit the horse is important. If there is a race without much apparent early speed, an alert gate jockey could win the race right there. If there are two front-runners and one is ridden by an overly patient jockey, a supposed speed duel may not develop. When there is a bias, some jockeys spot it sooner and some jockeys never spot it.

Over the years, I have come to pay more attention to jockeys than I used to. That said, I will bet on anybody if the price is right, e.g. Leparoux's first lifetime win aboard Easter Guardian last week at Saratoga.

[TOOZ]

I think the question, and I don't think it can be answered, is what percentage of nose or neck wins are determined by jockeys.

[Perilous]

Greta is very nice. For example, she is great on unruly or nervous horses. The jock's fit on the horse is sometimes a deciding factor. When it comes down to the wire its fitness and heart of both horse and rider.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Razzo was probably 15% wins when you asked him!LOL!
I like Latinos on longshots because I think they are underbet and more daring generally because of their early riding in their home country.

[sealord]

So.....maybe I've missed it, but back to original question. Is 15% an accurate number? I want you pro guys to take a stand.;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

When you take into account all decisions and physical manuevers a jockey could maybe done better it is 45%, mostly due to not judging the horse's available energy (individual pacing) correctly and not allowing the horse to make a turn as efficiently as possible as compatable with the horse's running style and ability, due mainly to not being as familiar with the horse as possible even though not always practical.
If you are talking only about obvious errors that costs the horse an amount of distance enough to lose the race then I think 15% may be about right.

[nobeyerspls]

Sealord

I think that 15% is too high but I don't think the percentage matters. They all perform in a range and all perform at the low end of their range when they experience burnout from riding too much. Given two horses of equal ability, the low percentage jock will win when his performance is at the high end of his range and the high percentage jock performs at the low end of his.

In my experience the difference among riders isn't as pronounced as the difference in the mounts they get. The leading riders get first call on the "cadillacs" and the others get the leftovers. At Fort Erie, my local track in the Summer, Woodbine riders come down on Monday and Tuesday when that track is dark. They often get live mounts. This past Tuesday Emma Wilson, the leading rider at Woodbine, took several mounts and didn't win a race. I think she had a second and a third. Ran last at 7-5 in the opener and attracted a lot of money in her other races as well. These are great contrary opportunities because you will get a better price on a live horse when they find themselves astride a slow animal.

So, here's a rule for all to follow. Watch the post parade and make sure that the jockey is facing the same way as the horse. Otherwise, ignore the rider.

[twindouble]

"So, here's a rule for all to follow. Watch the post parade and make sure that the jockey is facing the same way as the horse. Otherwise, ignore the rider."

nobeyespls; That cracked me up! What if the jock turns is head to find the guy the called him a freaking bum. :D Or he's looking for his new girl friend in the stands. :D

[cakes]

I believe the jock has some part of how the horse runs,not weather he is in shape though. The jock can't make a horse run if it don't want to. That was proved to me when Dominquez stayed in Saratoga and didn't ride Motions horse in Arlington Million. I think Motion and jock knew the horse was not 100%. He couldn't get show. but he did collect a check.

What I do watch for is a race where a jock jumps of a solid chalk and hops on a 5/1 or better.And I watch for a jock who always rides for a trainer and then jumps on another horse in a race.
But a bad jock can make a good horse run bad.And to me Sooden is one jock I wouldn't bet no matter what.

[Houndog]

I was still happy to see Fallon on Powerscourt in the Arlington Million instead of Spencer. To me this was a signal that O'Brian was taking no chances, and did not want a repeat performance of last year's race.

[twindouble]

I believe the jock has some part of how the horse runs,not weather he is in shape though. The jock can't make a horse run if it don't want to. That was proved to me when Dominquez stayed in Saratoga and didn't ride Motions horse in Arlington Million. I think Motion and jock knew the horse was not 100%. He couldn't get show. but he did collect a check.

What I do watch for is a race where a jock jumps of a solid chalk and hops on a 5/1 or better.And I watch for a jock who always rides for a trainer and then jumps on another horse in a race.
But a bad jock can make a good horse run bad.And to me Sooden is one jock I wouldn't bet no matter what.

Hello cakes; First let me say, woman are good handicappers, any married man comes to realize that in time. What I'm saying is their mind is better suited for it than mens. This will get me in trouble here but I'll take the risk. :)

I started out in a good mood this morning so I went ahead and picked on nobeyerspls, what he's getting at is looking for that professional aditude but I came to the conclusion many years ago, jocks are a factor in you handicapping to me it goes without saying, to the best of their ability they have control over the horse when they enter the track. So, they can't be discounted out of hand. What has worked for me over the years is to never get negitive about jocks or trainers for that matter, every race presents different conditions and the bum that gave you a bad ride may very well be the one to beat you out of mega bucks, for some just hitting for a few hundred is a big score. Like you and I we have a range of abilities and flaws, some of us look better because of our connections or take a ride on someones coat tails. When you like a horse, put the jock on and wager accordingly. Sounds simple but you have to get to know the jocks like they are part of your family and never ignore intirely the back sheep of the family, for I was that back sheep in our family.

[nobeyerspls]

Hiya Twin
Let me restate the "jockey facing" thing first. If the horses rearend is facing north then the jockeys rearend should not be facing east, south, or west.

My lessons were learned from both talented and not so talented riders. I had a nice pick 3 going at Gulfstream several years ago with Bailey and Sellers on horses in the last leg. They were the favorite and the second choice. Bailey got boxed in at the far turn and, after checking a few times, came wide and finished third. Sellers waited too long to move and wound up second. I seldom complain about rides but those talented jockeys looked bad in that race.

On the other end of the spectrum, a low percentage journeyman was having a bad Spring at Greenwood (a Toronto track long since closed). I made it a point to exclude him. I had a longshot going in the pick 4 one night so I rushed to the track and just got the bet in. After winning the first I checked the changes and noted to my dismay that they put this guy on my key horse. You guessed it. When the race came up he looked like the compositie of every great rider that ever lived. Broke alertly, saved ground, timed his move perfectly, and won from here to China. And yeah, I caught the pick 4.

So I mostly ignore jockeys and expect them to perform within that overlapping range.

[Valuist]

The reason Dominguez stayed at Saratoga was his agent (and everyone else) thought Better Talk Now would run in the Sword Dancer. He ended up booking mounts for Sar that day; JRV already was going to be at Arlington to ride English Channel in the Secretariat so with him available and the decision to go to AP was made, he picked up the mount.

[jotb]

And to me Sooden is one jock I wouldn't bet no matter what.

Tell me something cakes. What makes you think Sooden can't ride? I want a good reason otherwise don't waste your time posting back......

Joe

[sealord]

Ok, so it seems like most of the time, the jockeys don't have a huge impact. That being said, when a mediocre horse who normally gets average jockeys switches to a high percentage jock, wouldn't that indicate the barn is looking forward to a big race? And on the flip side, if a good or great horse who normally gets big name jocks gets a downgrade, would one interprete that as a sign the horse isn't 100% or isn't expected to win? Yes, I know there are no hard and fast rules out there, but these do seem a bit common. Again I defer to my experienced and professional 'cappers out in PA land. Please elaborate......

[Overlay]

In line with sealord, I mainly view jockeys as an indication of intent. I'm more interested in what they've done with the horse in the past, or (if on the horse for the first time) what their recent performance has been. I don't disqualify a horse altogether because of any jockey or jockey switch, although I may adjust a horse's fair odds upward or downward a couple ticks based on who the rider is today and how they've been doing lately.

[Observer]

...a good jockey can't make an inferior horse win, but a bad jockey can make a superior horse lose.

I can't totally agree with the first part of that statement .. a good rider can bring out the most efficient way a horse can possibly travel by riding as one with the horse and not working against the horse .. a rider with tons of confidence can instill that confidence into the horse .. a confident rider can make a horse much more bold.