Seven Reasons - Fillies turf to dirt

[nobeyerspls]

I waited for the thread I started regarding freshened fillies to drop off the page before starting a new one. Nobody responded to it but hopefully some of you read it.
This other gender-specific angle was located by my then new-to-racing wife. We rented a beach cottage not far from the track and on a rainy day when they weren't racing, she was looking through the old forms we saved and found this angle. That was over 25 years ago and since then it has produced nice returns. The particulars for these "Katio" horses as we call them after their founder are as follows.
1. The fillies should be non-turf bred trying the surface for the first time.
2. Their next race should be within two weeks.
3. Two turn races are better but sprints work as well.
4. The lousier the turf race the better the play.
5. Play them even if winning seems impossible.
I think the physiology involves a strengthening or legging-up process. After struggling on the grass and working as hard as they can to just keep running, they catch this smooth, non-taxing surface the next time and just fly. I think that the reason this doesn't work as well for males is because the legging-up is less pronounced.
So, the first three of the seven are Uncontested Speed, Freshened Fillies, and Fillies turf to dirt.
May you dance with the seven sweet sisters of success, may they warmly embrace you, may all knowledge be thine in the fullness of time.

[Tom]

Interesting theory...I will do a db investigation of this when I get back from Toga3. If it proves to be profitable, I will PM you and not post it! ;)


(Kidding)

[Tom]

Quoted:
Seven Reasons - Freshened Fillies
Three of the Seven Reasons to Bet a Racehorse are gender-specific. Differences in physiology produce different ways to identify live longshots.

Freshened Fillies
This angle has produced some real nice winners for me for over the past twenty years. You can verify it in real time or just page through the past performances in the printed Form.
Here are some of the rules.
1. Focus on sprints (one turn mile races can be included).
2. The freshening period should be at least four weeks, the longer the better.
3. The filly may show that she has won off a layoff before. That's nice but others will see it and the odds will be lower.
4. She should be working well with at least one work at 4f or longer. Very slow works by fillies with fast early speed can be a contray indicator.
5. Don't be influenced by trainer stats. A guy can be 0 for 3 with time-off horses but some of them could be males.
6. Restricted races (maidens, nw2) are the best. A 55-1 winner from this angle was a non-winner of 2.

So remember the simple mantra "Fresh Fillies/Cold Colts" and bet these at 10-1 or 20-1 with the same confidence that you have with those even money stickouts.

"May you dance with the Seven Sweet Sisters of Success, may they warmly embrace you, may all knowledge be thine in the fullness of time."

I quoted you here so that all the rules could be printed out toether in one printer friendly output.......I wnat ot look into theses ideas a bit further.
Sorry I missed this one before.

Tom

[skate]

nobeyer;

what is the legging -up process?

thanks

[osophy_junkie]

Arn't "2. Their next race should be within two weeks." and "4. The lousier the turf race the better the play." future stats only available in the PP?


Ed

[keilan]

Nobeyerpls,

Here’s something I see that’s similar with a hitch.

1) race #1 – dirt surface
2) race #2 – grass surface but adds lasix 1st time
3) race #3 – back to dirt – see ya later

[andicap]

I waited for the thread I started regarding freshened fillies to drop off the page before starting a new one. Nobody responded to it but hopefully some of you read it.
.

You can see how many people read it by looking at the "views" column. -- Thanks for posting these -- its why this board is so cool.

[nobeyerspls]

Osophy Junkie

I'm not sure of your question. Let's say that you're handicapping a race for fillies, nw2, claiming, 1 1/16m. One of the entrants ran 12 days ago on the grass. It was her first attempt on that surface and she was in it for awhile and then ended up last, beaten 42 lengths. This is you play. It's that simple.

[nobeyerspls]

Skate

In a few words, legging-up means getting stronger. I ran cross country in high school and one of the better runners would run up a sand dune, walk down, and then run up again, repeating that process until he was too tired to continue.

I had a horse stabled at the Payson training facility and it works the same way. I decided to walk the track but had to quit after 100 yards. It's deep black sand. You may note that Mott "legs up" his turf horses by training there.

[nobeyerspls]

Keilan

You are on to it. Change of equipment, including first lasix, is another of the Seven Reasons. When two are present you can bet with both hands. Note that this angle is no longer gender-specific when a second is present.

[skate]

nobeyer;


thanks for that help.


when you get a chance, i would think this procedure(legging-up) works for dirt race also?

but maybe not.

[ezpace]

The best I've ever seen or (done) ((:^)) get a filly off the track take her to a nice farm close by.. take her out and let her run around all day no halter or anything in a paddock she can graze in....feed her the same..take her back to the race track preferably 3 to 4 weeks... my oh my , how they run.. ;)

Kind of like them greyhound fellas :) that can get a dog off the track,, take them to the farm and "jackem" = catch a live jack rabbit in a run...

best juice there is for race horse .. or mongrel racers ;)

[ezpace]

But IF the guy is average or above average trainer though that will be 2nd time lasix.. the first time was when he let her work real hard in the morning ,,usually within 1- 2 weeks of that dirt start... from what i've,, ahemmmmmm seen.. :)

[nobeyerspls]

Hi Tom

I should have responded earlier but a huge database investigation isn't needed to verify any of these angles. Just look through the Form. For example, you'll see a filly named Chopping Wood entered in the 4th at Saratoga today. When you look at her past performances, you'll see sprint win at 17-1 last out. She came in off a turf race where she was close early and then ended up 10th, beaten 32 lengths. Note the absence of any turf breeding, particulary Salt Lake, the broodmare sire.
If I had to pick an example, this would suffice. Note that I'm not redboarding here, just pointing the way toward examples.

[keilan]

Just to be fair "Chopping Wood" caught a weaker field than she had been facing but it's the handicapper’s responsibility to assess the weight of each field, those that can see into a race hit the $38 dollar horse. Those that can't -don't.