Handicapping Turf Sprints

[kingfin66]

Okay, we have a decent thread going about handicapping maiden races. How about one for handicapping turf sprints and not those damn 6.5 downhill, right turn numbers at Santa Anita either.

If maiden races require a different set of handicapping tools then turf sprints must really take some special insight. Turf routes, as most people already know, run late, late, late. At least, I hope everybody knows that :) What about turf sprints? Is there any rating, or is it just pedal to the metal racing? To me, it looks like the latter.

If turf sprints are all out dashes, then this would imply that speed ratings are useful for these races. Or are they? Does anybody have an opinion on this subject? I really want to learn about these races as Tampa Bay Downs looks to be the hotbed of turf sprints with really big payoffs.

[Vegas711]

2 things : for 5 furlong races i look at their raw 5 f. turf times otherwise i treat it as i do a dirt sprint race.

[xfile]

Okay, we have a decent thread going about handicapping maiden races. How about one for handicapping turf sprints and not those damn 6.5 downhill, right turn numbers at Santa Anita either.

If maiden races require a different set of handicapping tools then turf sprints must really take some special insight. Turf routes, as most people already know, run late, late, late. At least, I hope everybody knows that :) What about turf sprints? Is there any rating, or is it just pedal to the metal racing? To me, it looks like the latter.

If turf sprints are all out dashes, then this would imply that speed ratings are useful for these races. Or are they? Does anybody have an opinion on this subject? I really want to learn about these races as Tampa Bay Downs looks to be the hotbed of turf sprints with really big payoffs.

Tampa Bay Downs is a hotbed for all types of races with really big payoffs....can't wait til December

[cnollfan]

Turf routes, as most people already know, run late, late, late. At least, I hope everybody knows that :)

My number one handicapping angle is speed in turf routes, because "everybody knows" it's bad.

[kingfin66]

Tampa Bay Downs is a hotbed for all types of races with really big payoffs....can't wait til December

I tell you what, I dabbled in betting this track right at the end of the meet and was amazed. Then I went back and did some trifecta analysis, basically tracking all trifectas that paid > $500. The archived results at Racing Channel don't tell what kind of races, so I checked out the pp's. I am just learning what many already know, the bombs definitely drop heavy and often at Tam! I want in on some it.

[sealord]

I go down to Tampa once or twice a year to visit my in-laws. (Insert laughter here) I usually get to the track at least once, and I too, have had some good days. Any reasons why the payouts may be bigger than average?

[JustRalph]

There is a member on this board who helped me learn to play turf races a few years back. He also showed me some courses that were good for them. One was Tampa. The early speed horses on the turf...especially shortening up or first time turfers at Tampa can come in at big prices. I have made a few nice scores there with these angles. Track the trainers there too. It takes a bunch of time..........which I normally don't have............but if you can keep up with the trainers who like to drop in on the turf course, for a big score, do it. It happens often enough to make it worth it.

[betchatoo]

I go down to Tampa once or twice a year to visit my in-laws. (Insert laughter here) I usually get to the track at least once, and I too, have had some good days. Any reasons why the payouts may be bigger than average?

Full fields and the track changes bias often

[TOOZ]

Betch,
Took your advice at Jazzfest and caught Big Al at the Funky Pirate. Got pretty lit up and was yelling out Betchaboo (not too) thinking you might have been around. Never got the chance to thank you. He was great.

[betchatoo]

Glad you enjoyed him.

[nobeyerspls]

Kingfin66

I recall that most Tampa Bay turf races are two turns and that boxcar payoffs come from all sorts of races. Think of the track as the poorman's Gulfstream. Northern trainers from all over get a paid vacation when they convince a few of their owners with better claiming stock to ship. The trainer gets the day rate and gets to do a little fishing on the side.
They will look for spots where they can grab some purse money though and the astute among them will score at decent odds. As handicappers we have the challenge of finding them while sorting out the quality difference among tracks. For example, an allowance horse from Canterbury might have trouble handling a claiming horse from another track.
The best races for me at Tampa are maidens on the turf and older males long-to-short.

[toetoe]

Some 'universal' turf biases.

The following are good starting points, often mitigated by recent course trends, # of speedballs entered, etc.:

Fair Grounds, two turns - closers almost always win. The stretch seems a mile long. A speedball going from FG to another track (AP, e.g.) deserves a long look. Ex.: Vitamin Bag, a speedball coming from FG, with a win already at AP, moved from 2nd to a long lead on the backstretch at AP, won and paid $80+ ... !

SA 6.5f. - generally front types, IF they're dependable stock.

Hollywood 5.5f. - closers always have a shot. Astonished was a notable exception, and always a decent price.

DM 5f. - speedballs rule. Sexy Helmsman was outclassed by Gathering Storm, but the clear lead, coupled with the latter's reluctance to squeeze through at the rail, made a difference of hundreds of thousands in the p6.

GG, BM 4.5, 5f. - closers have a shot, but the quality of fields makes it dicey to handicap these races.

I think people generally assume speed will wilt on turf, so if you get a high-odds speedball, at many tracks it's as dependable as its main-track counterparts.

[Overlay]

When Michael Nunamaker published Modern Impact Values in 1994, he omitted turf routes for two-year-olds and all turf sprints from his analysis because he had a requirement that any given category of races contain at least 100 races before he felt there was enough data from which to draw valid conclusions. Out of his 11,700-race sample drawn from tracks around the country over a two-year period, he was unable to find the minimum 100 races in each of those two categories. Is anyone aware of any statistical analysis similar to Nunamaker's work which has been done on those two categories since that time? Are those types of races being carded frequently enough today to meet that minimum number requirement?

[kingfin66]

There are lots of turf sprints carded around the country. That's what led me to inquire about handicapping methods. Now 2 yo turf routes are probably a different story, but there are probably a fair number of those later in the year.

[46zilzal]

I keep energy distribution/racing styles for all tracks by distance and surface and turf sprints are all over the place but consistent within the same course.

[Tom]

Turf stats can fluctuate with weather. When the course is dry and worn out, it starts to play more like a dirt track. At Toga Thursday, Suff brought the track superintendent by to meet the gang ( I asked him to "fix" the rail for the feature for me, but I guess he thought the feature was the.....4th!:mad: ) and andicap got a lesson from him in that aspect. I prefer to use maybe the last 10 races or so to make my pace descicions - weather being the same, that is. If the trends hold up over the last 40-50 races, great, but the last few is all I need to see.

Turf conditions of firm encompass a lot of real life conditions, from firm, to hard, to burnt, to missing, to green dirt. Not really sure if I've ever seen turf breeding stats for sprint only, but that would be a report I will put on my to do list.

[oddswizard]

Handicap turf sprints exactly as you handicap dirt sprints. I recommend using a Pace formula up to 7 furlongs. The key is to use Turf sprint pp's not dirt results. Simple and it works.