Why Borrego?

[chrisg]

Well, the only thing worse than my misuse of bold face type & explanation points (I'm not yelling; I just use them for emphasis) has been my handicapping. This spring, I must have slept on the wrong side & part of my brain slid out.

So, I'm @ a complete loss in understanding how Borrego was a top selection for some of you in the Pacific Classic.

I thought Perfect Drift was a fine choice. Despite the outside post, he would have plenty of straightaway to drop to the rail & save ground. I downgraded Lava Man only because of his latest work w/a 2yo of which I was unimpressed by what I had read about it.

As for Choctaw Nation, I didn't think 10f was gonna be his best distance. Though I had to respect that he had be training to a peak for this.

Surf Cat I didn't think was as good as Came Home had been in his 3yo season, so I wasn't really worried about him.

I thought Congrats might hit the board if he was taken off the pace, but I don't respect him @ 10f.

Which brings me to Borrego. {apologies for taking this long to get to him}. Why Borrego ? Should I have considered him a 10f horse solely off his SAH 3rd place finish? Should I have ignored his poor finishes in the Preakness & Derby due to trouble? He was waaay back in the HGoldCup. I didn't think he lost much ground in his last two races, yet thought his finishes were poor. What have I missed?

Thanks for any help; hopefully more than I will learn something from this.

[kingfin66]

This reply is probably a little bit shorter than you may have hoped for Chris, but let's just call it the "Giacomo Effect," but on a lesser scale. Borrego took advantage of a fast pace and just did it. Lava Man and Perect Drift both ran excellent races. They just got beat by a horse that benefited from the pace. The question is, why hasn't Borrego been able to do this in the past? He was my 2004 Derby pick.

[KingChas]

"He's just grown into himself in the last six months,"

Owners comments above.Borrego born in May(4yr 3mo) is actually a very young 4 year old.He may be maturing .Possible late bloomer.His BSF's have been pretty decent.He could be coming into his own.We shall see?

[cnollfan]

Chris G,

Borrego is not a top horse, but the Pacific Classic was a Grade I race for Grade II horses. The only horse with single Grade I win on the page was Lava Man, and he spent half his career losing Cal-bred races. So from a class perspective, the race was "below par," and below par races are prone to upsets.

I didn't mind the distance for Borrego. In the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup he passed seven horses and finished second, and in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby he passed five horses and finished third. As for losing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, well, Smarty Jones, a legit Grade I horse, won those races. I doubt any of these horses would have done much better. And I agree with the above post that Borrego had improved somewhat since.

Lava Man looked good winning three in a row at Hollywood, but the half was :47 in all three races. With Chavez back on Musique Toujours, plus forwardly placed Surf Cat, Congrats and Ace Blue in the race, the Pacific Classic pace figured to be faster than that, to the detriment of Lava Man and the others. Since he had been winning with the same training regimen this was not a big factor, but I didn't like Lava Man's slow and infrequent workout pattern much either.

I had visual negatives on two of the other closers. I had a small bet on Choctaw Nation in Dubai so I remember the race and he hung badly. Didn't like him at a mile and a quarter. In the Stephen Foster, Perfect Drift looked like he was spinning his wheels down the lane, losing the place to Eurosilver, who is not known as a strong finisher in big races. I discounted the Wash Park Handicap because that field was very weak.

Last but not least, I thought the post positions were significant. The inside had been bad at Del Mar early in the meet but as the track leveled off the inside had become an advantage in routes. Borrego was faster than Choctaw Nation and slower than Lava Man so he figured to have a smooth trip saving ground around the clubhouse turn, and Perfect Drift was on the outside.

[twindouble]

That's the only race I handicapped, just to jump into the war room for a bit. Tee bet the horse and I think I had race down pretty good. I told Tee Borrego would have to get perfact rail trip to win, otherwise he'll have to go 5 or 6 wide if Surf Cat quits and he's dead, (won't win.) He did go 6 wide and the sucker won, runs third or 4th I got the tri and super. I used Suf Cat because he was an unknown, didn't know how far he could carry his speed, ESP if the pace was slower and it did appear he could get the lead alone. Yes, I'd say Borrego grew up and beat me but I think it was a compitive field and the pace was faster than I figured it would be. I enjoyed the race and Tee picked a good one, I just hope that big Yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!! meant he made a lot bucks. :)

[kev]

He was my 2nd choice in which I bet him to win, but him and Ace Blue had a line on the sheets that looked like they might be coming back to their best. Ace Blue was a bit slower than Borr, don't ask me why I didn't have them as equal. Borr three races back ran the best race of his life so far and then he backed up off that and his last race was a small little move off that one and look to be coming back into his best.

[46zilzal]

Simply had the best combination of velocity and deceleration over the distance

[JustRalph]

Simply had the best combination of velocity and deceleration over the distance

this is probably a good way of saying it. I found him to be an even runner. in this race........it was the perfect setup

[skate]

3 reasons


odds, speed and class. all good.

he was the only play.


thats right out of my book

[kenwoodallpromos]

Says a lot! I like those kind but lost I track of Borrego for awhile.

[Ron]

I thought I remember him having the highest beyer at this distance.

[Light]

Hindsight is easy. Lava man was definitely the horse to beat. Beat Borrego 2x convincingly. But Lava man just had too much to do on the front end. According to Bris,Borrego's 103 speed figure was third best in the field,behind only Lava Man and Surf Cat. So if you could drop the 2 chalk( I couldn't.played Lava),Borrego was the next best speed figure horse. Of course Borrego was also the standout value horse when you consider his speed rank compared to his odds.

[chickenhead]

it was easy for me to get around Lava Man..and jump squarely on the back of old Perfect Drift. That guy has cost me a fortune over the years, but what can I say, I like him. I had two prime bets that day, both had class in their corner..Imperialism and Perfect Drift. I came out ok, almost great.

Borrego figured as a contender...no doubt. But so did the other three that completed the super. I think you could argue that Lava Man was the only underlay of the four, so no point crying about missing it, only one horse can win.

[classhandicapper]

I also played Perfect Drift.

Just off recent numbers, Lava Man was obviously the best. However, there were a lot of reasons to think he might not duplicate his recent form or get used in a faster pace. If you also held that point of view, the question becomes who do you bet.

For me, the 2nd best horse off his best form was Perfect Drift. The question on him was whether or not he would fire his best shot. If you saw his last race, he had a lot of trouble in a slow paced race. It was only his 4th start of the year and he has a tendecy to improve as the season moves on. So I thought he was VERY LIKELY to be sharper than he looked on paper and fire a big shot. IMO he did. He just got beat by Borrego (another horse that was also an overlay).

As it turns out, I think Lava Man ran the best race.

[toetoe]

Light,

You're making me hungry for ice cream. Flavor? Chalklight, of course.

[Light]

Hey Toe

Don't mind when my chalk gets beat.But my best horse that day was Conveyor's Angel in the 5th on Turf. 7-1 . I had this horse to win and covered her with the 3 chalks in exactas.Came flying from dead last to get beat by a head by a 19-1 who attended the pace. Like Ken Rudolf said on Tvg.Don't these guys(jockeys) read the form. So many of them are waiting for Godot before making their move at Dmr.

[toetoe]

Light,

I was with you until you used Ken Rudolph to bolster your position. WEAK! I HATE that guy. Non-sequitur: Imperialism has ... DONE it!
Hey, is that Toyota still available?

[Light]

I like Ken. I know you loved that chick that quit.Funny thing is I still see her on once in a while.

[toetoe]

That day in your kitchen, as I professed my love for Priscilla, I wasn't drooling, was I? Ken is very cute, also, just not my type.

[chrisg]

Thanks to all for your responses; I appreciate it.

:ThmbUp:

[Houndog]

As other people have mentioned Borrego may have been helped by the pace up front. If Cigar lost to Dare and Go in the Pacific Classic, Lava Man most certainly could lose to a horse like Borrego under the right circumstances.