Track Takeout

[trying2win]

I just read an article by Gordon Pine regarding track takeout. I thought it was excellent. Here's the link if you'd be interested in reading it:

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010525.htm


T2W

[trying2win]

I just noticed in Gordon Pine's Track Takeout article, that the link for the takeout page at the Horseplayer Magazine site is outdated or incorrect. Whatever, the correct link to the takeout page is:

http://horseplayerdaily.com/stats/vig/


T2W

[ryesteve]

It's good in theory, but it makes me wonder why bettors aren't flocking to the 12% pick 3's at Retama. Those pools are so small, last night you would've been able to cash on one of them by having only one winner of the three! When you see that 10 times as much money is being bet on their 25% trifectas, it's pretty clear that in this instance at least, offering players a bargain isn't working.

[cnollfan]

I'm throwing a few extra bucks at the Retama pick 3 -- but I'm making sure not to have more than $1 on any combination!

[midnight]

It's well known that such as a 14% pick-four takeout makes it much easier to beat the pick fours.

Suppose there is a pick four with four horses each of which have exactly a 20% chance of winning (one time in 5, or 4-1 natural odds) and who also are getting exactly 20% of the pick four pool with any of them involved. The chances of all four winning are 0.2^4, or .0016, or once in 5^4 or one in 625. Suppose that the pool reflects this, and that 1/625 of the pool is bet on this combination. To make calculations simple, suppose the pool is $62,500, meaning that 1/625 of that, or $100 is bet in the combination of four of them. The net pool after the 14% takeout is $53,750. A winning $1 ticket would pay $53,750/100, or $537.50. The fourth root of 537.50 is (rounded) 4.815 (rounded), or odds after takeout of 3.815-1. Our true odds+1 are 5, so the adjusted "takeout" is (5-4.815)/5, or 0.185/5, which is an effective takeout of 3.7% per race, which of course is a much smaller hill to climb than the 14-22% for the takeout. The downside, of course, is that it's tough to find four consecutive races in which one has a high ROI. The plus side is that a strong ROI in one race (e.g. an overlay) will leave room for lower ROI's in the rest of the races.

Pine's idea of a lower takeout sounds nice in theory, but it's not realistic. There are too many entities (horsemen, track, betting shops, government) involved for everybody to survive on a 5% takeout. In a state with high handle (New York, California), they can offer a lower takeout. There's no way tracks such as Thistledown, Columbus, Remington Park, etc., are going to get $3 million a day handles, even with a 2% takeout. There's only so much money to go around. The handle would go up if the takeout was lowered, but not to the point where lowering it drastically would make the smaller tracks more money.

As far as an offshore shop setting up a smaller percentage pool, the federal government would get involved quickly if such got large enough to threaten the tracks, the main reason being that it would also be cutting into the states' revenues.

There are a few things that could be done though:

1) Get rid of the breakage, and make payouts to the penny for electronic bets (online or by betting voucher), and perhaps to the nickel (on total bet, not to a dollar) on physical bets at the track. That's not likely to happen, since the state gets all the breakage in many states.

2) Lower the takeouts a little bit on the exotic bets. This could happen by the states reducing their cut. Of course that won't happen.

[stu]

In the four years since Gordon Pine's article was written I moved the referenced page to the following location as part of a site redesign

http://horseplayerdaily.com/stats/vig/

Stuart Slagle
HorsePlayer Magazine

[BillW]

If it matters to anyone, I don't believe the 12% take for supers at HOU is correct - they have the 12% in effect for pk-3's however.

Bill

[trying2win]

I've read a lot of posts at this site in the past, about PA members complaining about track takeout and breakage. I've complained myself. I've taken it one step further in the past, by being proactive and emailing a few racetracks and complaining to some track's management about some of their exorbitant takeouts on some types of bets. For instance, some of the track's management I've complained to were Turf Paradise and Flamboro Downs about their respective tracks' exorbitant straight wager takeout. I've complained to The Meadows about their ridiculously-high takeout on triactors (could have just as easily complained to Philadelphia Park or Penn National management, since those tracks are in the same state). Do any of you complain to track management about such things?

I've also given some track's mangagement compliments too, when I've seen them doing something right. Do any of you give out compliments to track's management for the same thing? Unfortunately, I think I've given out more beefs than bouquets. The point is, I don't think any racetrack's customers just like to complain all the time. It's a good feeling when you can dish out some compliments too.

Here in Canada, we don't have to pay any income tax on what our American friends refer certain winning tickets to as "signers". Seems to me, American bettors having to pay income tax on signers, is just another kind of takeout that affects a bettor's bottom line. Do any of you bettors complain to any of your government representatives about having to pay this income tax, while Canadian bettors don't have to?

Also, I think the majority, if not all Canadian tracks employ only nickel breakage. Just the opposite holds true in the U.S, with the majority of your American tracks using dime breakage (New York tracks being the only exception I know of). Have any of you complained to your local racetrack in the U.S. about this breakage discrepancy between the U.S. and Canada?

Has anyone given the New York track's management a compliment for their lead in having the lowest takeout in North America for straight wagers? Has anyone given compliments to some other tracks like Sam Houston or The Meadowlands for lowering the takeout on some types of their gimmick bets?

By being proactive, and giving beefs and/or bouquets to different track managements, you'll never know what influence you might have on their future policies. A lot of racetrack websites have contact names of different
racetrack mangers. Ever thought of sending any of them some of your compliments or complaints? Are you a possibility thinker or an impossibility thinker? There, now I'll get off my soapbox. Over to you fellow PA members. Thanks.

T2W