Maiden Race Handicapping

[trying2win]

I think most of us have certain kinds of races that are our strong points. Conversely if we're honest, I think we have certain kinds of races that are our weak points. For me, my strong kind of races are claiming races for winners. One kind of races I'm weak on though, are maiden races. I generally skip these kind of races, because I generally don't know what to look for. This seems a shame, because some days when you look at a day's card, it's not unusual to see four or five maiden races listed. On those kind of days, I feel my betting opportunities are limited because of the lack of claiming races for winners.

I remember reading handicapping books, where the author advised things like:

--Don't bet maiden races with more than 3 first-times starters
--Don't bet sucker horses in maiden races. You know the kind...they might have 15 lifetime starts, with a record of 6 seconds and 5 thirds and always seem to be knocking on the door, but for whatever reason they don't want to win.
--or even don't bet maiden races at all, they're too unreliable.

I can understand the case for not betting the 'sucker horse' in maiden races. That makes good sense to avoid that kind of horse for potential win bets, or keying those kind in serial bets. However, I can see some logic in considering the 'sucker horse' in maiden races for the place slot in exactor bets, or even the place and show slots on a triactor bet.

So...what to do? I'm getting this feeling that I may be missing out on some good betting opportunities in maiden races, but I don't know how to proceed in finding some potential nice-priced winners in these type of races.

I'm curious to see how other PA members approach handicapping maiden races. What factors do you consider?


--Do you handicap maiden races the same way you would on claiming races for winnners?
--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters?
--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters?
--Do you only consider betting maiden race entrants who have 8 starts or less?
--Do you only consider betting maiden horses with the top 3 speed ratings in their last race?
--Do you only bet maiden horses with 4 Quirin speed points or more?

...or other factors I may not have thought of on this topic.

I appreciate any pointers you can give me. Even after all these years of handicapping, I'm still trying to learn more in certain areas. Thanks.

T2W

[dav4463]

Well-bet early in career at a higher class level is a positive for me. I like brief early speed and fade. Class seems much more important in maiden races and easier to figure out.

[trying2win]

Dave,

Thanks for the reminder on the maiden horse who is well-bet early in his career. Now that you mentioned it, I think I remember seeing some maiden race winners at Turf Paradise in years gone that had that kind of attribute. Some horses would go off at low odds on their first lifetime start, display a poor effort, then bounce back in the next race with a win. There must be a good reason for some of these horses to go off at low odds in their first lifetime start.

T2W

[sparkywowo]

A 5000 Maiden Claiming race at Mountaineer for 3 and up is a completely diffferent bird than a MSW for 2yo at Arlington Park. Depending on the tracks I play, what I look for in a Maiden race varies.

Probably the most general statement that I can make about sprints is:
1) A decent figure with some early speed is often good enough,
2) Look at turn time, if the early speed has the turn time to prevent the pressers from cutting into the margin on the turn, that is more than good enough,
3) Horses without early speed that neverless run good speed figures while rallying into the minor spots without ever challenging for the lead can be disregarded,

and some minor points:
4) A first time starter whose trainer wins a reasonable rate at a profit can be supported (1 for 3 isn't meaningful, 3 for 12 is). Watch first time starters who get some support and note particularly body language and warm up, and how they break from the gate. Some firsters can run but lose all chance when they dwell or get cut off at the start. It may not show up in the charts. All the better if they make a move at some point. An otherwise decent performance can look awful on paper if the winner gets away by 5 lengths.
5) Look at the recent charts and see if any horses that have run once or twice are coming out of "key races" wherein they made some kind of effort to challenge for the lead,
6) keep an eye on 1st Lasix, blinkers on/off etc...

I think Maiden Races are some of the most playable races because many of the horses can't run and if you find one that can run, it doesn't have anything to beat.

[trying2win]

Sparky,

Thanks for the tips. Excellent post. You pointed out some things I never thought of before when looking at maiden races.

T2W

[JackS]

T2W- Start with a few basic rules. I really do hate the word "rule" when it comes to horse racing but in your initial effort to finally break out and become a winning player with maiden races let me give you a plan.
Rules-
1. Play only 3yo's in Mdn and Mcl when the race is carded for 3up.
2.Toss all horses moving up in class today.
3.Consider tossing all horses who have not started in the last 3 weeks. (this could vary depending on the track but still probably pretty general) and does not include horses returning from a layoff.
4.In weak races , pay close attention to the first call time plus lengths behind.
The above rules are pretty fundamental and can be augmented by jockey/trainer stats. Scan the Beyer's but trust your own figs.
As with anything in handicapping ,I will and have broken every rule printed here, but I am also very aware of the danger in straying from these basic concepts... Good Luck

[trying2win]

Jack,

Thanks for your advice. I think your rule no. 2 is an especially good one. Now that I think of it, yeah...I don't recall too many maiden winners that moved up in class from their last race.

T2W

[dav4463]

I don't mind a maiden moving up in class if it is accompanied by a trainer switch or fresh claim.

[nobeyerspls]

Finding a longshot maiden is sort of like being the first to recognize value in a stock. Ruffian was 6-1 when winning her first start and her groom didn't bet her because he thought she was to fat.
Here are some longshot angles:
1. Second lifetime start.
I didn't make much money when I owned and raced but I learned a few things. One is that you can't simulate that first race with morning preps no matter how hard you try. Something will go wrong. If a horse shows that he has some talent in the AM and has a lousy first race, bet him with two hands.
2. Filllies with some time off.
See the thread I started yesterday for more on this.
3. Turf Breeding
Pay more attention to the broodmare sire than the sire. If momma handled the turf or produced runners that won on it, that's your horse.
4. Horses Changing Barns
The new guy might find the key to turn the horse around.
5. Change of Equipment
I include lasix in this category but blinkers on or off works. Of course there are many changes (tongue strap, shadow roll, bit) that aren't known to us.

I never bet any horse straight if the odds are under 7/2. With the angles noted above look for 10-1 or 20-1, the higher the better.
I don't think I answered all your questions. I never look at speed figures and I don't know what a Quirin number is.

[cnollfan]

Cheap maiden claimers, I look for lightly-raced horses dropping in class that flashed brief speed or had a trouble line against better. Good example Friday 8/19/05 was Dakota Princess, 32-1 winner of the 5th at LaD. Only start was LaBred filly MSW, 6-3, 7-8, 8-15, 8-23, "finished early," now dropping to LaBred filly maiden $10000.

This one is from the infamous Dave Powers but I like it because it goes against the grain -- professional maidens that have been close at this level but not winning and are now a big price.

I like "top jockey off" on lightly-raced maidens, and the more obscure the new jockey, the better. The point isn't that Velazquez or whoever didn't have enough confidence in the horse to ride it back, instead it is that they were lured into riding it in the first place. There's probably a story behind the horse, and even if the jockey leaves, the story remains.

I also like changes for lightly-raced cheap maidens -- blinkers, lasix, gate work, new jockey, new circuit, layoff, new distance or surface, etc.

I like longshots that have a decent pace figure for the class. I don't pay much attention to speed figures for maidens (or winners, for that matter, but especially for maidens). As a general rule, there is less passing in a maiden race than in a race for winners. The horses at the back of the pack in a race for winners are usually closers, but the horses at the back of the pack in maiden races are usually just slow.

In races for good horses, I like MSW horses that run in exactly one high-price maiden claimer and move back to MSW. All the books say tossout, so the price is good on a horse that the connections still think has potential.

I like to bet against expensive horses that drop to maiden claiming without too many tries against better. They're almost always a low price and the owner and trainer can't be more blatant about the horse having little potential.

I usually bet against seven-digit yearlings. Horse will be bet based on its price-tag. I also automatically throw out all lightly-raced maidens sired by A.P. Indy, Gone West, and Unbridled's Song. They are almost always heavily overbet.

I like first-starters with slow but steady workouts and unfashionable breeding that get some play at the windows. An unknown horse that could easily be 30-1 but is 12-1 instead might have some talent.

[frankfig]

I like to bet on horses that sold for good money at a 2yo in training sale. Say the sires fee is 10,000 and the horse sold for 70,000, it means the horse showed good speed on the track. I also like to go with young sires instead of older ones. I try to predict which sires are going to do well before there runners hit the track. I love SONGANDAPRAYER as a new sire , also BROKEN VOW is going to have some good runners.

[cnollfan]

I like to bet on horses that sold for good money at a 2yo in training sale. Say the sires fee is 10,000 and the horse sold for 70,000, it means the horse showed good speed on the track.

Agree. Would much rather back a maiden that sold for a big multiple of the stud fee than a higher-priced one that sold at a small multiple or discount.

[OTM Al]

2 big things I look for with 2nd time starters. I always give heavy consideration to a second time starter that came out of the 1 post in his first start. Doesn't matter how badly he was beaten, if it looks like he ran a pretty even race after a terrible start, he's a bet. The young ones really have a lot of problems with that 1 hole. Second, though it rarely comes up, a horse who ran his first in a stakes race and is dropping back to a regular maiden today. His trainer must have thought a lot of him to start him at a high level, so that quality coupled with a little experience can often make for a good run. These two actually combined on one horse for me a couple weeks back. Went off at 21-1 and won by a length or 2. Such a combination is rare, but it sure made the whole day right there.

[Zaf]

Great thread guys, thanx for the useful info !

ZAFONIC

[46zilzal]

TWO words: 2nd call ...velocity leader wins an inordiante number of these

MOST babies need a race or two to GET IT.

[trying2win]

I've got one more question on this thread. Do most of you handicappers skip those bottom-of-the-barrel maiden claiming races, where every entrant in the race has 10 starts or more and a lot of the horses have terrible-looking form? I'm thinking...trying to figure out the winner in those kind of races is not a good-percentage type of bet in the long run.

T2W

[kenwoodallpromos]

Then bet against the %! Everytime you find an underlay there is an overlay somewhere. Find it!

[Zaf]

T2W,

I like playin em. Like Ken says theres usually a overlay. I like these types who show good pace figs at the 2nd call , or even good late pace figs. I usually only bet at 9-2 or higher in these bottom feeder races.

ZAFONIC

[cnollfan]

Agree with Ken and Zafonic. Any time that you *know* the favorite is a really bad horse, which can often happen in those races, there is betting potential.

[kenwoodallpromos]

This straight maiden system is not very much tested:
_____________
For current race-
1) Age 2 to 4 years;
2) Post positions 2 to 4;
3) M/L 2/1 to 4/1;
4) Today's race is 2nd to 4th career.

For last race-
1) finished 2nd to 4th;
2) finished 2 noses to 4 lengths back;
3) gained at least either 2 lengths in stretch or 4 positions during race.

Bet $2.00 to $4.00 to win.

[andicap]

I like to bet on horses that sold for good money at a 2yo in training sale. Say the sires fee is 10,000 and the horse sold for 70,000, it means the horse showed good speed on the track. I also like to go with young sires instead of older ones. I try to predict which sires are going to do well before there runners hit the track. I love SONGANDAPRAYER as a new sire , also BROKEN VOW is going to have some good runners.

What about "hot" sires. That is, say their first crop comes to the races in 2004 and they are like Carson City, winning everything in sprints. Wouldn't that mean that breeders with the best mares would be looking to mate with that horse in 2005 meaning that as 2007 yearlings and 2008 two-year-olds their offspring would be better? (I've got the years right? mate in 2005 foaled in '06, yearlings in '07).

I;ve also read that as horses get older, they don't get the hot mares anymore -- those go to the younger "hot" sires like say Giant Causeway is right now.
I always wondered if those lists that Lauren Stich and others put out predicting the best sires are self-fulfilling prophicies. Since they are considered the best prospects, they get the best broodmares.

[cnollfan]

I always wondered if those lists that Lauren Stich and others put out predicting the best sires are self-fulfilling prophicies. Since they are considered the best prospects, they get the best broodmares.

I don't have a copy in front of me so I can't be more specific, but in its leading sire lists, Blood-Horse includes a numerical average purse-winning rating for all the broodmares a sire is bred to. Three sires I was critical of in a previous missive -- A.P. Indy, Gone West and Unbridled's Song -- were among those whose stats were flattered by cream of the crop broodmares.

[speculus]

These are the general/statistical findings of my research into the performance of first-time starters (2YO & 3YO) with reference to their subsequent runs.

The sample was reasonably huge (by Indian standards), at least 1,200 horses monitored from each year's crop since 1994 that raced in India, always on the TURF.

It is not necessary that American racing (mostly conducted on dirt) would give out identical patterns, but it is also NOT IMPOSSIBLE. Chances are some or most of these observations might be holding some form of univarsal truth.

Your feedback, if you have observed the same or contrary pattern, is most welcome.

1) Nearly 60% first timers improve their performance by between 3 to 5 lengths immediately in their second lifetime start.

2) Of the 40% who don't take this jump, half (that is 20%) show 2-3 length improvement in their third outing.

3) But very few (not even 5%) of the remaining 20% (these are generally endowed with less classy blood, and/or come from low-scoring trainer's barns, so to say) are able to show this type of improvement after the third run of their life.

4) As far as the first time starters are concerned, jockeys just below the top group (in the 10-16% band) ride a statistically significant share of winners. There has NEVER been an exception to this fact in the last 10 years of observation.

5) Though they get VERY FEW rides with debutant horses as there is no incentive (they can't claim weight allowance due to the terms of a race), it is nevertheless observed that apprentice riders, as a group, have a VERY PATHETIC record with first time starters (3-4.5%), also with the second time starters (3-7%). However, their record with third time starters in some years has been as high as 12%.

6) First run after being gelded DEFINITELY enhances EARLY SPEED in most cases, but no other decisive conclusions can be drawn about change in other aspects of their racing ability.
7) SECOND START and a POSITIVE JOCKEY SWITCH (with reference to the first run) are, by far, the MOST POTENT factors that could contribute to a MASSIVE improvement in performance, sometimes upto 6 to 8 lengths. (This gives an extremely profitable angle, although you may have to exhibit the patience of a spider to cash it. If a first timer loses to a second timer by less than 2-3 lengths, and if they meet again on not-very-dissimilar terms, the loser now will most certainly turn the tables on his conqueror, generally at a lucrative price. The reason for this reversal is while the former winner had already registered his mandatory "jump" in performance when it won, the former loser is actaully set to take that jump now in second lifetime start.)

Regards.

[valueguy]

Really enjoying this post. my home track is a smaller West Cda track ASD.
Where 4 out of 8 races can be maidens .This time of year after 3 1/2 months
of trying, the talent pool is becoming pretty shallow. I have had some success in the past by just playing shippers who have shown that they can still take some nourishment. Any shipper from a track with ave purse value of 5 or better can be a contender. ROI about 10 % .With lots of streaky losses and wins.

[46zilzal]

Really enjoying this post. my home track is a smaller West Cda track ASD.


That has to be the chaulkiest track outside of Lone Star and the energy distributions there are UNIQUE: unlike and I have ever followed at standard distacnes.

[JackS]

Speculus- Good Post. I'm not a stat man but all/some of your statistics could apply to US tracks and maybe most tracks world-wide.
Stat guys around here should validate at least some of these for us.

[kingfin66]

I'm curious to see how other PA members approach handicapping maiden races. What factors do you consider?

Maiden races have really become my most profitable form of equine investing. Whenever I get a big score, it is usually from a maiden race. When I am referring to a maiden race, I am really referring to a maiden sprint. Maiden routes and maiden turf routes just have too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable betting on them.

--Do you handicap maiden races the same way you would on claiming races for winnners?

Most definitely not. I think this is where many people go wrong with handicapping maiden races. In my opinion, there is no way that you can handicap races for non-winners the same as you would races for winners.

--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters?

I personally do not for the simple reason that I don't get invovled in betting on maiden races with more than a couple of unknowns. When I attack a maiden race, I prefer to be able to include all of the unknowns in my exotics.

--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters?

The answer to this is, once again, no and for the same reason as for the previous question.

--Do you only consider betting maiden race entrants who have 8 starts or less?

No. I can certainly see where this is a negative factor, but you have to look and see who those previous races were against. Sometimes, a horse just needs to get into a field that it can handle. During the early part of the current Del Mar meet, a horse by the name of Latin Moon broke its maiden. Latin Moon had previously something like 0-11. The race he finally won was one where he fit the talent level. Even though his record looked dismal, 0/11 in bottom level claimers on the SoCal circuit certainly ain't great, he looked like he could handle the field.

--Do you only consider betting maiden horses with the top 3 speed ratings in their last race?

This is where people go wrong. Speed figures, whether they are Beyer figs or someome elses, are only reliable in certain maiden races. I'm not much for par time except when they apply to maiden races. In maiden races, you have to have an idea of what par is for a given class and distance. If there is a horse(s) in the race that have run to par and were beaten, they are good bets. Some authors, Dick Mitchell comes to mind, have advocated betting maidens with the fastest 2nd call times. This isn't necessarily bad advice. I believe, however, that the most predictable types of maidens are those that have run to par.

But what about maiden races where no horse has run to par? These are the ones to make money on. In these types of races, just about any horse can win with seemingly bad (Beyer) numbers. This is where it pays to have an alternative rating system for your horses; angles, alternate ratings, etc.

--Do you only bet maiden horses with 4 Quirin speed points or more?

I alluded to this a little bit in the previous answer. In general, it is better to have a horse that you think will be near the pace. Maidens are typically in experienced and still learning the skill of being rated. I would much rather have a fast horse than a slow one. I don't do Quirin speed points, but if I remember correctly, 4 wouldn't be too bad. That said, I have had good success betting the 7f maiden races that are popular at Hollywood Park. These races become staggerfests as horses have a hard time finishing strong. Although I still like a horse to be somewhere near the pace, it is also important to consider finishing ability.

...or other factors I may not have thought of on this topic.

The things that I look for in a maiden race are, in no particular order:

Good ratings. I use TMM and the Speed Handicapper. Ideally, I will find a horse that has strong ratings in both programs.

Lightly raced horses. They have a chance to improve more than the many time losers. I will note again, however, that I will consider horses with several losses if the situation warrants it. 2nd times starters can improve big time for no apparent reason.

Price. If you are going to take a stand against favorites, you really need to get paid for it.

Pace fit. Most maiden races run as neutral in TMM. This is another reason that I like them. I want a horse that will be within a few lengths of the lead.

Class drops. I believe that there are MSW and maiden claimers. Whether a horse went from M40000 to M25000 is of no consequence to me. Regardless, I want a class dropper to have some ability.

Vulnerable favorite. This would be a favorite in a race where nobody, especially the favorite, has run to par.

I'll add more if I thing of some later. I really try to keep it simple and swing for the fences with my bet structuring.

[trying2win]

Speculus and Kingfin,

Great posts! Very good information. Thanks.


T2W

[plainolebill]

Nice thread. I can see a few things that I'm definitely going to be trying out. One of the things I look for is a horse whose trainer usually wins early with maidens - after a start or two this horse is generally topped out but will be strongly bet. I look to bet against them. I also use pars, sometimes to throw out all of the experienced horses. :)

[twindouble]

I think most of us have certain kinds of races that are our strong points. Conversely if we're honest, I think we have certain kinds of races that are our weak points. For me, my strong kind of races are claiming races for winners. One kind of races I'm weak on though, are maiden races. I generally skip these kind of races, because I generally don't know what to look for. This seems a shame, because some days when you look at a day's card, it's not unusual to see four or five maiden races listed. On those kind of days, I feel my betting opportunities are limited because of the lack of claiming races for winners.

I remember reading handicapping books, where the author advised things like:

--Don't bet maiden races with more than 3 first-times starters
--Don't bet sucker horses in maiden races. You know the kind...they might have 15 lifetime starts, with a record of 6 seconds and 5 thirds and always seem to be knocking on the door, but for whatever reason they don't want to win.
--or even don't bet maiden races at all, they're too unreliable.

I can understand the case for not betting the 'sucker horse' in maiden races. That makes good sense to avoid that kind of horse for potential win bets, or keying those kind in serial bets. However, I can see some logic in considering the 'sucker horse' in maiden races for the place slot in exactor bets, or even the place and show slots on a triactor bet.

So...what to do? I'm getting this feeling that I may be missing out on some good betting opportunities in maiden races, but I don't know how to proceed in finding some potential nice-priced winners in these type of races.

I'm curious to see how other PA members approach handicapping maiden races. What factors do you consider?


--Do you handicap maiden races the same way you would on claiming races for winnners?
--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters?
--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters?
--Do you only consider betting maiden race entrants who have 8 starts or less?
--Do you only consider betting maiden horses with the top 3 speed ratings in their last race?
--Do you only bet maiden horses with 4 Quirin speed points or more?

...or other factors I may not have thought of on this topic.

I appreciate any pointers you can give me. Even after all these years of handicapping, I'm still trying to learn more in certain areas. Thanks.

T2W

I've been busy the last couple days, just got around to reading this thread, indeed it's a good one.

On face falue if anyone learning the game or boderline handicapper he or she might think all the answers are posted and just go on and start making money on Maiden races. Most statements that I read can't be disputed because they are general in nature and include many stats. Others straight to the point.

Stats to play a part in your handicapping but to me an abundance of them will screw things up without a doubt so you have to pick and choose what ones are more likely to apply in any given race. Tough call isn't it? What's in bold isn't a general statement, it's a fact. What is more meaningfull is the horses past performaces and the conditions of the race, distance and so on. No past performances, good luck! All you can go on is breeding, the trainer or any other angle you can come up with.

To answer your questions, the first one I like.

--Do you handicap maiden races the same way you would on claiming races for winnners? Well yes but the only way you can handicap a race that's lowers the risk factor is at least have some past performances to handicap. Other than that, play some angles and stats and hope the weather man is right.

--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters? Trainers are and always will be an important part of your handicapping in any race, it's up to you to find out what the trainers strong points are and that can vary from track to track, surface to surface from stakes on down to the lowest claiming races. Your knowledge about the tracks you play are more inportant than anyones book of stats.


--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters? I avoid these races, unless I'm forced to play them in the picks and you can be dam sure I'll go deep and muster up what ever angle I can to stay alive. That's the ony time breeding would be a factor to me. Then I would be in trouble anyway because my breeding knowledge is limited because I've over the years have been playing the cheeper horses.

--Do you only consider betting maiden race entrants who have 8 starts or less? Here again, it would vary depending on what's going on in my wagering strategy overall but at least give me some races to look at but if your talking 2yo's and I'm sure you are, well that's another story. I'll avoid those races as well if I can.

--Do you only consider betting maiden horses with the top 3 speed ratings in their last race? Wouldn't be nice if handicapping was as simple as that. Speed is a factor, more so today than in the past. There's no way any handicapper can handicap without tring within reason to figure the pace of the race and speed is the determining factor. Need I say more.

--Do you only bet maiden horses with 4 Quirin speed points or more?

I have never read Quirin's books, or anyone eles for that matter.

Good Luck,

T.D.

[speculus]

Thank you for a very detailed and thorough post. It made interesting reading--and of course, a lot of sense.

[Valuist]

I find one of the biggest sources of longshots is the second time starter in maiden and maiden claiming races. Many of these took some money in their debuts but finished poorly. Some may have shown a little speed or maybe a little midrace move before flattening out and finishing poorly. I think we sometimes see these types and automatically assume after one race that the horse has zero talent.

[andicap]

Cary Fotias has interesting thoughts on maiden handicapping in "Blinkers Off."

In 2nd time starters he stresses horses with an even distribution of energy OR a very very large early skew. The ones he dismisses are those in the middle.

[speculus]

I find one of the biggest sources of longshots is the second time starter in maiden and maiden claiming races. Many of these took some money in their debuts but finished poorly. Some may have shown a little speed or maybe a little midrace move before flattening out and finishing poorly. I think we sometimes see these types and automatically assume after one race that the horse has zero talent.

This fact is confirmed even in my research mentioned earlier.

Now the real point that baffles me is this:

Does the horse "underperform" than his/her true ability during the first lifetime start (we all know how nervous we were whenever we gave our first public display in anything from public speaking to debate to singing, etc), and then gets "seasoned enough" (thanks to that experience) to put in his/her genuine form in second start?

OR

Does the horse, during first lifetime start, actually "learn" how to gallop more competitively, and therefore uses that knowledge to perform "better" in second lifetime start?

What do you think?

[twindouble]

Cary Fotias has interesting thoughts on maiden handicapping in "Blinkers Off."

In 2nd time starters he stresses horses with an even distribution of energy OR a very very large early skew. The ones he dismisses are those in the middle.

andicap; We aren't laying the Alaska pipe line here. What did Fotias do wire up the horses so he could make that determination? Or did he go by many races where he figured out what the pace was, should have been or took a wild guess at it? How the heck does he know how much energy was spent, could have been spent or how much is left? What ever he meant, it's skewed that's for sure.

This only has to do with Fotias, not you andicap. It just begs for answers. Change of equipment should get any hanidicappers attention, don't you think?

Good luck,

T.D.

[Valuist]

I think some trainers look at a first start as a learning experience, and try to build upon that. Its not necessarily a stiff job; just that the horse may be better meant in its second start.

I think first timers, in general, tend to be a bit overbet. Given a choice between a horse with a few starts and decent form or an expensive flashy-bred first timer, I'll take the horse w/the experience.....as long as they haven't been at the level too long.

[JackS]

Speculus- I've mentioned this angle before- The horse that showed nothing in it's first start. You can't play these blindly but when the rest of the field is so weak we are left or led to consider first time starters and the lone second time starter that had a dismal first race. The odds come automatic with this type (as they should) and a play on this 2nd timer will always be a gamble. The bet should be made because of the boxcar odds and the already determined weakness in the remainder of the field. This is the logic that is used to justify such a bet. Don't bet the farm but don't let this horse pass without a bet. As with other longshot plays, don't go looking for them, just recognise this play when it pops up.

[trying2win]

[QUOTE=twindouble]


--Do you give a lot of weight to trainers who have an excellent record with 1st or 2nd time starters? Trainers are and always will be an important part of your handicapping in any race, it's up to you to find out what the trainers strong points are and that can vary from track to track, surface to surface from stakes on down to the lowest claiming races. Your knowledge about the tracks you play are more inportant than anyones book of stats.

Twin D,

Thanks for your input. I especially liked your answer on section (b). Come to think of it, I've put more time in studying the strength of trainers in maiden races on our Stampede Park/Northlands Park racing circuit, than other ones. I think that may have played a part in some of the success I've had on maiden race, first-time starters and lightly raced starters on our circuit. While at other tracks, I haven't put in much time studying the trainers there regarding maiden races, thus less success at the mutuel wickets. As for handicapping the maiden races for more experienced runners with lots of starts, that's more of a weak area for me, no matter what track I play in the U.S. or Canada.

T2W

[mudnturf]

--Do you take into consideration, breeding in races with some first-time starters?

I appreciate any pointers you can give me. Even after all these years of handicapping, I'm still trying to learn more in certain areas. Thanks.

T2W[/QUOTE]

I have used my own "stuff", now published in the DRF, and have had some success, especially with first time turf or first time mud/slop, using the following calculation:

Turf: Combine the Tomlinson Turf and Distance ratings (Dst). The higher the number the better. 800 or higher= automatic include.

Mud/Slop: Same as above.....substitute Wet rating for Turf rating.

This method has helped me find some in-the-money horses at generous prices.

[Kitan]

75-85% of races I handicap on the day are maiden races.

[nobeyerspls]

Valuist

This is a very productive angle and one I learned when I owned and raced. We had a filly with some talent and worked her with a decent colt before her first start. She dug in and wouldn't let him by in a 4f work. She was 45-1 for her first start. Just before the gate sprung, one of the gate assistants moved a chain on the gate and she heard it and turned to look. Of course she was left and then used all her energy to catch the field, finishing fifth. She did win later at lower odds but the lesson learned is that something can and does go wrong during that first start. You can't simulate that dirt in your face experience.
I bet one of these at 55-1 last Fall at Churchill and got beat in a head bob. Didn't mind tossing the win ticket but I would have had the entire win 4 pool.

[witchdoctor]

Here's an angle.

http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=29688

[Bill Cullen]

For mdn sprints, look for 5f workouts in the last 8 days. I don't care about the time as much as I do about how the horse finished compared to the other horses who worked at the same distance on the same day at the same track and on the same surface. If at least 10 horses worked the distance, and a horse was among the top 20% (the top 3 in this case), and the horse shows some other postive sign (dropping in from a maiden special to a mdn claimer, good jockey switch, some betting support in the last race, some early speed in the last race including going to the lead at one point, etc) and you can get 4/1 odds or better, you could well have a good bet.

Bill Cullen

[Overlay]

In assessing first-time starters, I look for some evidence of support at the mutuel windows, especially for two-year-olds (below 6-1 is best), and for who the assigned jockey is. Otherwise, I handicap maidens on the basis of demonstrated race performance.

[kingfin66]

Happiness is a first time starter that has been made the favorite by the betting public. Makes all the other horses more or less overlays. Ah yes...

[BIG RED]

Great thread! :ThmbUp:

This is exactly why I started up that maiden contest back when. It was enjoyable and informative.
I asked people to please state if they could say why they came up with their pick, without giving away their secrets, this way cappers who have tuff times with mdns could get a lot of info to help them if they wanted to jump in betting mdn races.
Next time I know when I can be at a computer for 4 weekends in a row (not BC weekend) I'll ask PA to do it again. I, myself, love playing playable maiden races.