Success without pace?

[andicap]

I'm trying out a new program that doesn't use pace at all in its handicapping. I'm a fan of pace capping so this is a big trial thing for me.
One reason I'm doing so is practical -- in the past i've had access to all the printer cartridges I could use. Now I have to pay cash and the BRIS pps use a lot of ink.

Question: Besides the trainer (SMF) and other DB handicapping methods people are using, is anyone having success handicapping without using pace? That is, using traditional speed/class/form methods with some jockey/trainer stuff (just a little).

I will be glad to discuss the program via email

andicap

[Rick Ransom]

None of the things you mentioned are completely independent of one another. I'm a big proponent of using very few factors, because if you use a lot of correlated factors your top rated horse becomes an underlay because it looks "too good". So I guess my answer is yes, but there are those who will say no, because they use pace as one of their important factors and ignore other things. You'll probably find more overlays on horses that are outstanding in one of those areas but just average in the others.

I hesitate to say that anything won't work anymore, because I've seen people win with approaches that I thought were big losers based on my research. The difference was that my research was based on only the most obvious ways to use the available information and their methods involved a much more in-depth approach.
Some of these involve breeding, workouts, jockey, and trainer data. Superficial study of all of these will usually be discouraging, but they all have their merits in the hands of a true expert.

[Tom]

You can win without pace-you will jsut get a different horse than you are used to liking. I think a sound method is the class/race conditions approach from Quinn's Handciapping Condtions Book.
you can get a handle on pace through pace analysis rather than ratings. If you don't have this book, Quinn has generously posted most of the race conditons and other info on his new website under Playing the Races.
Goood luck.
Tom

[Dick Schmidt]

I've been a dedicated pace handicapper for many years, and as it has become more popular, it has also become less profitable. The last time I saw Jim Quinn at the track, he told me that he was going back to the "old time" class handicapping that he started with back in the 1960's because with everyone doing pace, class was being neglected.

One of my "rules" to live by at the track:

Whatever the majority of people are doing is by definition wrong. In a parimutual system, this will always be true.

Dick

[Aussieplayer]

Well, one pro I mentioned on the board AGES ago (the share trader/Saturday punter) uses (final time) speed ratings, which he does in an intersting way.
He includes (in the rating) adjustment for weight, running wide, easing, and jockey (with an interesting way to rate jocks), and again uses an interesting way to rate the future race. His results are phenominal (and are monitored by the only independent watchdog here). He doesn't use pace because (a) we don't have the same info. as you guys (internal fractions - we just have position - no lengths back), and (b) he specialises in sprints (to7f) and (in most races - especially our bigger average fiels) there is a genuine pace.

The guy I mentioned recently (the one sending me pre-race ratings for 7 months) uses a class based rating system - I best not say more than that :-)

I know I'm talking about a different country - but hope it helps. Interesting to at least note that a profit can be made on speed OR class.

Regards
Aussieplayer

[Rick Ransom]

Dick,

I've got one of Quinn's old books, "Class of the FIeld". I'm impressed by it and think he can win using that kind of analysis. However, he must have a real genius for subjective analysis of some of the traits, such as competitiveness, perhaps developed by watching replays of thousands of races over the years. I think you would have to see what goes on during the entire race and not just look at the snapshots that we get in the past performances.

[JimG]

I agee that the bulk of the handicappers on this board, myself included, use pace in their handicapping. And it is certainly more popular as the talking heads ie. Randy Moss, Charlsie Cantie talk about pace in their TV analysis.

However, when attending the track and listening to others kibbitz about the races, it seems to me like speed figures, late form, and class in that order are still the prevelant factors. Of course races like this years KY Derby begin to educate the general public on the importance of pace.

Jim

[Rick Ransom]

My point is that class is really a fuzzy concept. A few people really understand it, but not most. It's not something like average earnings, average purse value, class ratings, average competitive level, and so forth. I think that class is really important these days, but we can't measure it like we can speed and pace. Of course, that's exactly why it's more profitable now. It's currently the hardest thing to do accurately. I'm afraid that's the way it will always be.

[ridersup]

Andicap

Would not forgo pace handicapping as it still is the avenue to high mutuel prices. Case in point, yesterday at Churchill Downs a high e1 and e2 horse wired the field in the first race at double digits and Amaretta who had E1 of 93 and E2 of 91 at Saratoga, wired a turf field in the 7th race leaving a 9-5 shot in his wake, paying $20 plus mutuel.

As far as class goes my personal opinion is that it is overrated. Claiming horses win Grade 1 races. Allowance horses move into graded races much easier now and all the old axioms of Quinn and Davidowitz can be discounted. One I used to follow was not to bet a Gr1 horse coming back into a lesser race following a layoff. You might have been able to do that in the past but not now.

[GR1@HTR]

Although I'm pretty much a 90% pace capper, I don't think you have to include pace to be successful. Look at all those Rag Sheet players and how well they do. Don't think those guys even know how to spell pace much less pronounce it.

[Dr.Larry]

The recent SunCoast Tournament was won by
Tommy Castillo, a pace handicapper who uses HTR.

Second and third places were won by Len Friedman
of the Ragozin Sheets. Friedman does not bother
with Pace. He considers possible "ground loss"
He may thus subtract a point or two for the lone front
runner in a race (ground saved) or penalize a horse
who is a late runner who may lose ground going wide.

Both methodologies are valid.