PDA

View Full Version : Three Factors: Weight, Age and Post Position


sparkywowo
08-18-2005, 10:08 PM
Generally speaking, no one pays too much attention to weight, age or post position. However, I would argue, these factors are sometimes important and worth a second look.

Post Position:
Is there a big and favorable/unfavorable shift?
Speed Ball shifts from post 9 to post 2. Presser shifts from post 2 to post 9.

Age:
How many years do the last ten running lines span?
Horse A debuts at age 2, runs a couple of times, and is sidelined until he is 4. Horse runs like the wind at age 2 against nothing and never duplicates it against sturdier competition. Horse B runs regularly and decently at age 3 and 4, then is laid off for a year returning at age 6. C, an old gelding shows up at age 9 with a decent lifetime record but no wins at age 8, last decent form two years ago at age 7. D, an old gelding shows up at age 9, also-runs a couple of times but then wakes up and duplicates his form of age 6 which is only visible if you go back 20 races.

Weight:
Is the horse running long against tough competition under a heavy load for the first time?
3 yo enters graded stakes after a couple of allowance wins and is being asked to tote +120 lbs over 9 furlongs. A 4 yo, who was a Grade I winner at 3, comes into a prestigious Grade I off a single prep race and is asked to carry 126 lbs (for the first time) over 10f.

toetoe
08-18-2005, 10:40 PM
Apart from daily biases, the main post worry for me is when a frontrunner goes two turns and has to go wide on the clubhouse turn. Sometimes the race can be tossed, even if the pp's show that the horse had the lead at the first call, making everything look normal.

kenwoodallpromos
08-18-2005, 11:32 PM
Can be important.

46zilzal
08-18-2005, 11:36 PM
very track specfic

Valuist
08-19-2005, 12:15 AM
I think post is very important on the turf, especially when there's a short run to the first turn.

I haven't seen stats on the Saratoga meet but the outside few posts are almost always guaranteed rough trips.

mhrussell
08-19-2005, 01:17 AM
I agree, in most cases, these factors are minor but sometimes they can be important within the entire context of the race and are worth a closer look.

The one negative 'angle' I look for (and have since programmed..) is a situation cited by Davidowitz: high weighted 3yr olds vs. older just do not win. So if a 3 yr old is in facing older horses, AND is assigned the highest weight in the race, I consider that a huge negative flag and assign it non-contender status. :ThmbDown:

cnollfan
08-19-2005, 02:13 AM
C, an old gelding shows up at age 9 with a decent lifetime record but no wins at age 8, last decent form two years ago at age 7.

I pay a lot of attention to age. One of my favorite eliminations is a horse age 7 or older, sometimes 6, that used to win races but doesn't win much anymore. Many times these horses run just competitively enough so that the crowd will still bet on them and not really notice that "the old grey mare ain't what she used to be."

Another favorite elimination: Horses are supposed to mature and get faster from 2 to 3. So, I am suspicious of horses that don't. If a 3 yo doesn't match its best 2 yo time, I assume that it won't, until proven otherwise. When such a horse is making its second or third start after a layoff, traditional handicapping would say to expect improvement. I contend it should have already improved in its first race of the year, so it's a warning sign if it didn't. (Sheets guys may be miles ahead of me on this.) If I'm proven wrong and the horse does finally improve, no hard feelings. But there are some juicy bet-againsts first. Off the top of my head, one horse that comes to mind this year is Proud Accolade.

Valuist
08-19-2005, 10:57 AM
One of my favorite angles in conditioned allowance races is the lone 3YO in a race. That Davidowitz angle re: high-weighted 3YO may be true but it doesn't happen often.

Public misconception: 3YOs can't beat older horses

cnollfan
08-19-2005, 11:06 AM
Valuist,

To clarify, you like betting on the lone 3-yo, not against, right?

Valuist
08-19-2005, 11:35 AM
Absolutely. Although I do find this seems to be better on the dirt, and even moreso in sprints. My hypothesis is that older dirt sprinters tend to have more soundness issues than their older turf routing counterparts.

twindouble
08-19-2005, 12:06 PM
sparky;


The three factors your inquiring about are just that, "factors" when it comes to the conditions of the race. A good handicapper, gambler first and foremost is going to evaluate the race and make a reasonable decision if the race is playable or worth the risk.

Conditions, distance, age and weights; If you've been playing the horses long enough once your into the past performances, you know what the conditions are but I would advise any beginner to read them. ( don't know if your new at it or not.)

Races for 2yo's;

I pass on those races, common sense tell me the horse is a baby and who the heck knows how good he or she will be. Even though you may know a lot about the trainer, connections, works, including breeding to me it would be unnerving to risk a lot money on 8 or 10 2yo's learning the game. If you must, a fun play with value is in order. Not only that, today most are lighlty raced and can burn you when you lest expect it. Weights are not a big factor or post position, thoses that do play them like the outside posts.

Races for 3yo's

Here again, these horses are maturing and improving or going nowhere; trainer and connections would play a big part in evaluating the race, not as risky as 2yo's because you can get an idea as the direction the horse is headed by virtue of his past performances, class and running style. Still risky from a wagering stand point compaired to betting on 3yo's and up but you have more to look at bringing all the factors when it comes to handicapping including post position and the horses ability to break from the gate. Yes, getting positition in the any race is a big factor, ask any jock, they should along with the trainer know where they fit in the race and have a strategy baced on the horses running style. So, others in the race could very well deny that position because of their post position, breaking ability and their running style. Weights, down the list of factors.

Races for 3yo's and up;

Now, here's where the risk takes a turn for the better in my opinion because running stye, class is pretty well estabilished and there's plenty of past performances to get your teeth into, don't matter to me if it's MdspWts, MD claiming, stakes, Alw, starter Alw, restricted or claiming. I prefer the lower claiming ranks, small tracks.

Age, and post positon does play a big part in my handicapping and wagering but not weights.

JackS
08-19-2005, 02:19 PM
I love the 3yo's against older horses particularly this time of year. If they aren't favored, it's usually because their adjusted final time is a few points short of one or more of the older horses. If the 3yo appears to be competitive at any call other than final time, it's reasonable to expect that final time will also improve in todays race.
The odds board will be the main factor though, I would not discount older horses of any age upsetting a low odds 3yo favorite.

Perilous
08-22-2005, 03:35 PM
Another thing on post position, depending the track the gate can actually be angled badly for outer post positions. For example, a mile and a sixteenth on the turf at Ellis, the outside is pointed where they will break on their right lead as usual, then switch to their left, then back to their right, and usually they will mess this up. Its usually a suicidal post out there on grass races when the gate is in a awkward position, younger horses have a hard time, doesn't effect older horses that come from way back as much but it still is a horrible way to start a race, especially if a inside horse gets out.
As far as age, I go by breeding(some horses run better younger and visa versa-maturity levels basically), trainers, some trainers are great at running two year olds, others are better with older horses.

valueguy
08-22-2005, 04:41 PM
I am a big fan of Sam (the Genuis Lewin) Old time handicapper,who subscribed to the following.

Weight can be important on a slow track, it slows down the start of sprinters
and tires out a router.
Older horses, 7 plus an eliminating concern at major tracks.Not a big deal at
smaller or secondary tracks.
Post position, Prime source of long shots . Outside speed running againest inside speed usally wide on the turn or turns, Pressors on the rail forced to go fast early . Outside speed in Bullrings are at a major disadvantage.
Post position also a concern with slow or fast rail.

FWIW

Vegas711
08-22-2005, 06:41 PM
Best advice: ignore all 3. If you base your opinion on these 3 factors all you are doing is adding noise . Horses that have bad posts can still get a lucky breakif something happens to the others.

Anytime that i have let post position effect my bet i lost the race. The reality is that by giving weight to these factors you are just increasing your odds of making a BAD guese.

ryesteve
08-22-2005, 06:57 PM
Anytime that i have let post position effect my bet i lost the race. The reality is that by giving weight to these factors you are just increasing your odds of making a BAD guese.
I don't think that you're going to convince those people who are making a fortune betting the outside horses in sprints at Mountaineer.

keilan
08-22-2005, 07:43 PM
I don't handicap many races without knowing the age of the horses, li'l tough predicating whether a horse will move forward or regress without any idea of age. Anyone who disputes this is a losing player pure and simple.

Post position is dependant on track, pace, composition of the field, distance etc. Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesn’t. If you understand the nuisances of the track you’re playing and the strength of each horse in the field the post position variable will be filtered mentally. Weight is so far down the list of variables that is almost always of little or no consequence in the majority of races

How do you like them apples Andi, boring enuff for ya

JackS
08-22-2005, 09:01 PM
Third start Angles- Play against all horses who have almost won both their previous starts weather a wire-wire threat or from off the pace.
Reason- these two starts in which the horse might have won might represent the best this horse can do and will probably need a layoff before he can be taken seriously again. The low odds that accompany this type do not warrant any serious bet that this horse will repeat his first two attempts but this time will win.
Horses with one bad and one good race in the last two can be serious contenders though. If the horses last race was good we can project that todays race should be even better.
The contridiction of the first race was a good race and the last race was poor begs for a little forgivness. We will never know for sure what the reason was for the poor showing unless it's mentioned in the trouble line. Insist that this type of horse is returning in a timely manner(2 weeks or so) which adds confidence that physical problems do not exist.
One paradyme to the above is the horse that had two first races and both were good. Each race must represent a different style i.e-early in one ,late in the other one. Reason- This horse may be just finding himself. Check 'em out at a track nearest you. Good luck

JackS
08-22-2005, 09:18 PM
Whoops! wrong thread. I won't repost in the "maiden ".

sjk
08-23-2005, 02:32 PM
In case you are still looking for opinions on these issues, here are a few:

Inside posts overindex on win pct vs. outside posts. This is true to a much greater degree in two turn races but I think it holds true if to a lesser degree in sprints. As Keilan pointed out above, the degree to which this holds varies considerably by track and its worth keeping up with the individual tendencies of the tracks you play.

When I have measured the effect of weight I get about 1 point for each 5 pounds. I've seen some other measurements that were similar so that is hoepfully close.

For a horse with recent form, I put very little weight on a race more than 6 months ago (since I don't play horses without recent form, I guess that means I always put very little weight on such races).