What do you do when this happens?

[dav4463]

Race 8 at MNR on 8/12/05

I picked in order, the 5-7-6-4

The odds were 5-1, 18-1, 15-1, and 17-1

I didn't even have the favorite in my top six.

I bet to win on the 5 and 7, played exacta 5,7 w 5,7,6,4, trifecta 5 w 5,7,6,4 w 5,7,6,4

It came in 6-7-5...perfecta 355.20....trifecta 3130.00

I got worried when all four of my horses were at big odds and did not bet the right way. How do you remedy this in the future? .....besides picking the horses better ! A tough loss like this one can be frustrating, especially when you had almost punched in a winning perfecta and decided to go only two horses on top.

[JustRalph]

if I had a dime for how many times I have done the same thing...........:D


spread out Dave!!!!

The part of your post that interests me is.........

"I got worried when all four of my horses were at big odds"

this kind of thinking can stop you from hitting the nice ones.........remember it is paramutual betting. Be smarter than the crowd and get paid nicely for it.......obviously on this race you were the smart one..............take a stand

[twindouble]

Race 8 at MNR on 8/12/05

I picked in order, the 5-7-6-4

The odds were 5-1, 18-1, 15-1, and 17-1

I didn't even have the favorite in my top six.

I bet to win on the 5 and 7, played exacta 5,7 w 5,7,6,4, trifecta 5 w 5,7,6,4 w 5,7,6,4

It came in 6-7-5...perfecta 355.20....trifecta 3130.00

I got worried when all four of my horses were at big odds and did not bet the right way. How do you remedy this in the future? .....besides picking the horses better ! A tough loss like this one can be frustrating, especially when you had almost punched in a winning perfecta and decided to go only two horses on top.

dav; All you have to do is look at what you did, you'll have the answer pronto! When you have horses with value like that, it's automatic for me not to get beat, a lousy $24.00 box or $48 just in the tri would have give you half or all. What a shame! I feel for you. Good capping though. If you don't cover at Mnr, you'll miss the good scores.

Good Luck,

T.D.

[lsbets]

If its only four horses in the ex and tri I'll box them to cover myself. I hate it when I get the right horses in the wrong order. If I like more horses than that and can toss the fav, then I will put my top choice over the others, or pass the race because I can't narrow it down enough to make a reasonable bet.

[skate]

isbet;


i get that twing when i see a race with those odds that i like, love!

my mind goes directly to the #6 being highest odds.
no question this is monday morning but maybe my thought helps.

nothing you dont already know. once you get the chalk out of the race the only point left would be "having enough to bet" and when you say to yourself (as i do many times) tighten up $, then your putting more emphasis on your luck!

when odds are that high, and they should always be that high, i would not only consider, but id work around a tri and maybe superfecta and still go from there.

tri might be:
4567 with
4567 with
all

super:

4567
all
4567
4567

cost you about maybe $260 for a $1.00. for both bets with 10 horses total in race.

[lsbets]

Trust me, I undertand that twinge, and learning to ignore it has helped my bottom line tremendously. Why is that? Well, I've come to the conclusion that if I can't narrow a race down to 4 contenders, than I can't figure the race out. I might feel that the fav sucks and will run out of the money, but I can't figure out who will run in the money, so I pass. I firmly believe the smartest thing you can do playing the races is say "I'm stumped, lets move on to the next race."

[Light]

Put at least 2 bucks to win on all your price horses .You won't feel as bad .

[skate]

isbets;


i can understand that you should have passed the race.

too many other things can and will happen, thats the way i read every race that i play.

i think its a mater of measure and money.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Just bet to place.

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I see this as a "crush" race, although I would generally have my doubts about my handicapping if I did not like a single low-odds horse enough to be a contender.

Nevertheless, I would box all 4 horses.

Actually, I discussed this very situation in my last Travis-At-The-Track interview albeit with out the math.

The way to decide if the race is a playable box of your contenders is to:

1. Come up with a probability that one of your contenders will win.

Let's say that in this case it is 60%.


2. Divide 100 minus the probability by the probablility to determine "fair odds" for this win percentage.

Fair odds= (100 -60)/ 60
fair odds = 40 / 60
fair odds= 0.67:1

We now have what you feel are fair odds for these contenders.

3. Add up the dutching percentages of the contenders.
In your case you had 5-1, 18-1, 15-1, and 17-1 which totals 33 points.


4. Divide 100 minus the points by the points to determine the dutch odds on these horses.
In this case:

Dutch Odds=(100-33) / 33
Dutch Odds= 67 / 33
Dutch Odds= 2.03:1


5. If dutch odds are greater than fair odds you can make a box of all the contenders.
In reality, you can actually play if you are almost breaking even.


Why have I left out a margin for profit? Because an exacta is like a parlay and a parlay always exagerates your advantage (or disadvantage).

And bear in mind that if you have a bet that is a slight loser (say $1.90 for $2.00) the horse is a much better $net than the average $net of $1.55.

Consider that putting two almost good win bets together will likely produce a better than break even exacta bet.


If anyone needs to see a better explanation of why that is, just ask.

Dave Schwartz

[xfile]

I'm not a big fan of boxes but at those odds I might have made an exception and boxed all 4. Especially since you said you found a possible false favorite.

[Suff]

Good job capping. That is just a Tough beat. Other posters have some good advice on you should have handled it. Or how to do so in the future.


My opinion is that these things happen. Your at the track with a finite amount of money... You cover eveything the way you can with the bank roll you have.

My advice is this.

When life hands you lemons, find someone who's life has handed them Vodka.


This is a tough beat that will haunt you until you hit another race.

[Suff]

Race 8 at MNR on 8/12/05



trifecta 5 w 5,7,6,4 w 5,7,6,4

.

Also, 5 in the 2nd & 3rd hole here is a non-sequitur

[ryesteve]

my mind goes directly to the #6 being highest odds.

I think the 6 had the 3rd highest odds... :confused:

[dav4463]

I typed it wrong, the tri was 5 w 764 w 764....

Anyway, I thought the 5 was the best horse, that's why I made him the key in the trifecta. The part that haunts me is the fact that I had punched in the exacta ticket and then cut it down to two horses on top because my records have shown over the long run, when I put more than two horses on top, I cut my profit down considerably. In this case, I got burned. Time to turn the page, but races like this can really frustrate a guy ! I agree that when I see three of my four horses at double-digit odds, I have to think I'm right and go for it, instead of thinking "maybe I missed something here". Oh well, I'll be ready next time I see one like this....

[Zman179]

Bottom line: You should've had that tri. Your first three choices made the number, no excuse to not play at minimum a three horse tri box for $6.

That was a big fish that got away.

[EQUIPACE]

Dav4463,

Your results were wrong... I love and play MNR 3 or 4 times a week... I had to go look at the results again myself...

It came in:

6 - 7 - 9 - 4 (Your payoffs were correct though)

The 5 horse was in 3rd for 3/4's of the race and faded miserably, finishing 2nd to last. So you really shouldnt beat yourself up on this one at all...

The 6 horse topped a $5300 pick 3 though... That would have been the whip cream for me. :)


Good Luck!
John
~¿o

[EQUIPACE]

One More Thing:

I think I read a recent post here about reasons to play MNR...

All you have to do is look at the payoffs and prices, Thats the best reason there is!

I have been playing there for the last 3 years. And, its a tough track to cap with many races appearing wide open. 1K+ trifectas are quite common...

John
~¿o

[dav4463]

I feel better now ! You are right, I had keyed the 5, and for some reason thought I had keyed the 9.........oops ! I still should have had that exacta....I had the 6 as my third choice and had punched in the ticket and then cancelled it.

[EQUIPACE]

I feel better now ! You are right, I had keyed the 5, and for some reason thought I had keyed the 9.........oops ! I still should have had that exacta....I had the 6 as my third choice and had punched in the ticket and then cancelled it.


David,
Glad you can get some sleep now.

As I said it is not a very forgiving track when it comes to capping & wagering... But you have to cover the possibilities per your bankroll.

Just Ralph had a great line when he answered someone about them not offering pick 4's (The ticket would cost him 10K) :lol:

Thats why my signature down below says it all in these situations... :)

Good Luck!
John
~¿o

[skate]

ryesteve;




i guess you are right, but a little too pressing for me.

but "hay" nice correction ,thanks.:cool:

[JohnGalt1]

I had a similar situation a few years ago at Turf Paradise.

My three contenders were all 10-1 or higher. I decided 2 were more likely to win and made win bets. I bet my 2 win horses over them and the third 10-1 over all in a tri.

Both win bets went out on the lead, in the stretch one dropped out but the other 10-1 came up on the outside, but just at the wire nipped my 2nd win horse. The winner paid $30 and the $1 tri paid $3300.

Lesson learned---if, and it's seldom I like 3 long shots---I will bet abc/abc/all.

No need for an exacta since if they finish one two I'd have the tri.

[toetoe]

Dav,

As you seemed to 'key' the 5 and 6, just 5,6/4,5,6,7 would be plenty. I know betting all four would be just six dollars more, but it's 100% more, and it doesn't take many 4-horse boxes to deplete the bankroll, esp. in tri's and super's. It IS great to know the fave has little or no shot.

[dav4463]

I will continue to play MNR, I love that track ! It is a neverending process though to learn to structure the best possible wager for the race. I hate to miss out on a bomb, but I don't want to chase too often...need a happy medium.

[skate]

dav4463hut:


ok ok ok ;


ill say it anyhow

i sure didnt pay much attention to the mnr. race, i was kinda trying to point out, what has been a big advantage to "me", my mind will always go to the bigger price or prices in this case.

i didnt realise that a superfecta was not available , does not mater, principle remains.

if you did bet;
4567/w
4567/w
all


you would have won.

and it will always be , you do "cut your profite when you lose".

(that is right from my book.)

sure it cost more to bet more, but if you cap the race as well as you say, why take such a big chance that nothing else will accure to change your capping abilities.


are you saying...

" now i feel better", because i could not have won, ok, but i sure would not like your remedy.?

[dav4463]

When I see prices like that again.........I am spreading out as suggested !

[skate]

good idea,dave

[BetHorses!]

Anytime my top 4 contenders add up to 25-1 or more combined I just make a 4 horse tri box.

5-1, 15-1, 17-1 & 18-1 = 55-1. Not to make you feel worse but thats a no brainer. We all make these stupid mistakes, today at the Spa, I made a cold Pick 3 with only 4 bets. Hit it and it paid $40....I liked the winner of the 5th he Paid $28, the Pick 4 came back a dime....Did I have it NO....did I blow the ex in the 5th YES...Did I bet to win NO :bang:

Its all part of the game. Live and learn. You'll get em tomorrow

[toetoe]

Are you saying that you bet two p-3's across four races?

[BetHorses!]

No Toe let me clarify sorry

I did not even make a pick 4. But I should have scaled back the amount of money invested in the pick 3 races 2-3-4 and have at least made a small pk 4 since I liked a price in the 5th and should have had it for at least $10. I only went 2 by 1 by 2 in the pk 3 basically cold. Stupid mistake by me.