prime power

[sligg]

I'm working on a spot play using the Bris Prime Power numbers. This is a short sample: these results may not hold up. How much of a sample before a method can be labeled as valid?

Jockey and trainer stats: how many starts needed to validate their win %?

Tracks: Saratoga and Del Mar
Dates: 7/21 to 8/15

Bets: 38

Win: 25, 65.8%
ROI: 64.9%

Place: 32, 84.2%
ROI: 26.4%

Show: 36, 94.7%
ROI: 17.6%

Are these results good?

[EQUIPACE]

Sal,

I'm sure many of the players here would agree with me when I say that your sample size might be small, But your win hit ratio is STELLAR! 66% Wins is truely remarkable... You might want to keep it going for awhile before you get to excited... Experience has shown me over and over, that what works great for the first several weeks, eventually falters in the long run over time. I cant tell you how many times I thought I stumbled on the Golden Goose when it comes to figures and angles... I have a couple of custom figures that have been holding up fairly well for a couple of years now.... After looking at my top rated fig horses, I usually go for value so my plays are limited to races where I have an edge... Or I'll just pass it... My Win % fluctuates between 35 - 40% on average... So I have managed to stay in the black. As far as Jockey & Trainer starts... I tend to think you have a better handle on it when they have more starts... But If I recall, Bill Quirin suggested that they must have a win % of 15-20% to be considered good... And be at least 40-50% In the money.

It sounds like you have have stumbled onto a great spot play... If I was you I would exploit it and clean house with it while you can... And hopefully it isnt just some sort of short time Golden Goose...

Keep it up and bang em hard! ;)
John
~¿o

[ryesteve]

I'm working on a spot play using the Bris Prime Power numbers. This is a short sample: these results may not hold up. How much of a sample before a method can be labeled as valid?
If you're fitting criteria to past results, you'll always find something that will work, so there's not really an answer to that question. The test is to track your method going forward to see if it holds up.

[midnight]

The sample size is very small. Also, the show percentage is high. I only know of one method that will get 95% show, and that's in fields of exactly 5 horses, and it only finds about 40 plays a year. I doubt that's the case with your method.

If you're using Prime Power, I'll guess that you're looking for large gaps between the highest and second-highest ratings. If so, that's been beaten to death by thousands before you. It's a well-trod road, made easier to travel by BRIS's "Power search" service that allows customers to search Prime Power ratings over all tracks for a given day. Such methods may end up with 50-55% winners, but the ROI is usually around 0.80-0.85 (15% to 20% loss). Such horses are usually overbet, moreso because of the simulcast money.

It's very tough to find anything profitable that winds up on short-priced horses. If you aren't back-fitting the method to the results, then you're probably just having a good run, and that it will eventually even out. You'll want to track it for a good while longer before jumping in.

[Tom]

I disagree- I would jump in now, track the results, and get out when it goes cold. Sit and wait, you might watch a few thousand dollars in winners go by, waving at you.

How long do you wait at Saratoga before you decide how that track is playing? It is only open a few weeks.

[ryesteve]

How long do you wait at Saratoga before you decide how that track is playing? It is only open a few weeks.
Assessing how a track is playing is very different than jumping onto a backfit spotplay system.