Claiming Races

[linrom1]

I am not fan of claiming races, however, it occurred to me that these races are more form-full than non-claiming races and I realized that I know the answer as to why. In non-claiming races, trainers compete to set the public up for a score, whereas in claiming races they compete against themselves. Hence they have to be careful not to cross other trainers because that could mean exposure and complaints of fraud when horses are claimed from them. Claiming trainer can sue, the public cannot.

[Nickle]

Claiming races are by far the best races to bet due to inblance in fileds of horse talent

[GameTheory]

I am not fan of claiming races, however, it occurred to me that these races are more form-full than non-claiming races and I realized that I know the answer as to why. In non-claiming races, trainers compete to set the public up for a score, whereas in claiming races they compete against themselves. Hence they have to be careful not to cross other trainers because that could mean exposure and complaints of fraud when horses are claimed from them. Claiming trainer can sue, the public cannot.That's crazy, they cross each other all the time. The claiming trainer can sue for what?

[mcikey01]

'Ya know, I thought I would never get the oppporetunity to write the seminal article on an overlooked aspect of horseracing because there are none left..... How foolish of me.

Next week, in this forum, watch for:

"Handicapping the Litigious Trainer" by Seamus "The Tort" O'Shady

[midnight]

Claiming races present good wagering opportunities because there ISN'T an imbalance. The fact that a horse can be claimed for the listed price compels trainers to enter them at a level relative to their worth (or risk having them claimed away). That makes for more competitive fields than Maidens or Allowances, where you can have future Breeders Cup horses racing against future $5,000 claimers.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's crazy

That's par for the course....

[maxwell]

The trainer of Chawtoc Nation found out the hard way that it doesn't pay to try to steal a Md 40k purse. So far it has cost a million! :eek:

[Valuist]

And Lord of the Game, and he was claimed away from a M10000.

But for every Lord of the Game or Choctaw Nation, there's thousands of beasts who never even break their maiden. Its a pretty big gamble claiming an unraced Maiden claimer.

[ryesteve]

In non-claiming races, trainers compete to set the public up for a score
This sounds wrong to me... trainers would seem less likely to play cute with better horses running for higher purses. Cheaper races are where you'd think the trainers have more incentive to try to supplement the purse money with betting action.

[ryesteve]

Claiming races present good wagering opportunities because there ISN'T an imbalance. The fact that a horse can be claimed for the listed price compels trainers to enter them at a level relative to their worth
I think the imbalance comes from those trainers who feel compelled to enter their horses for MORE than they're worth. I find it a lot easier to eliminate half the field in a claiming race than I do in an allowance race.

[midnight]

The same thing happens in maiden special and allowance races. Half the field are future claimers whose connections refuse to see reality or place them too ambitiously. The problem is that everybody else can see that, too. Same thing does happen in claimers. Connections overvalue the horse, or get attached to a horse and don't want to get it claimed away.

For example: in the last 45 days, Horses that just won a Maiden Claimer and are now entered in an allowance race. Traditionally a horrible bet:


Horses: 386
Won: 25
Win pct: 6%
ROI: 0.44 (1.00 is break even)

Horses moving from maiden claiming to straight maiden:


Horses: 919
Won: 59
Win pct: 6%
ROI 0.43


Here's a sub category. The horse runs second or third in a maiden claimer and is entered in a straight maiden:

Horses: 354
Won: 36
Win pct: 10%
ROI: 0.47


The horse runs well, and immediately the trainer (or overzealous owner) wants to move the horse up to where it has very little chance. They win more often than MCL that don't do well and get entered in MSW, but they also get overbet.

[kenwoodallpromos]

What did Richey do, stiff the KY Derby to bet the Belmont?