What' wrong with these odds?

[linrom1]

Why this betting strategy does not work? Several years ago I had tested a simple wagering formula at GP. I would try to pick a winner based only on final post time odds in relation to who was riding in the race. The basic premise of this wagering strategy was that the public would tend to over bet the top jockeys such as Jerry Baily, E. Prado, Velazquez, etc., and under bet lesser known riders.

In order for this to work, the odds would have to exhibit a specific betting pattern. For example, J. Bailey at 7/2, Prado at 3/1, and lesser-known Jock at 4/1. In this case odds of 4/1 on lesser-known jock would always make him a strong contender, whereas Bailey at 4/1 was almost always an automatic throw out. This type of analysis, while very simple, seemed to work extremely well---it makes sense. However, I have seen that at some meets, this does not work at all, and actually, works in reverse. For example, today at Pilmico in 9th race on turf, a horse trained by Graham Motion with Ramon Dominquez went off at 5/2, J.E. Sheppard ‘s entry with Mark Johnston went off at 7/2, while a no name trainer with no name jockey went off at 3/1. With such strong support at 3/1 against these Hall of Famers, we should expect a rather strong showing, instead, Dominquez and Johnston finish 1-2, and our pick doesn’t even hit the board

[tdthomas]

Why would it work? You are betting on a low pct. jockey and trainer at low odds. You have no other information about your horse or the other horses in the race except that they have high pct. jockeys and trainers. You are betting against people who have been studying the racing form for hours and you expect to win by watching the tote board?

[JustRalph]

The Horse wins the race........Jockeys and trainers are just another influence. Albeit the greatest influence. But you could put Jerry Bailey on Zippy Chippy and I don't think the outcome would change.

[BillW]

Originally posted by JustRalph
The Horse wins the race........Jockeys and trainers are just another influence. Albeit the greatest influence. But you could put Jerry Bailey on Zippy Chippy and I don't think the outcome would change.


BUT ... there are a lot of trainers around that could turn War Emblem into competition for Zippy Chippy. :)

Trainers and jocks can rarely improve on what a horse is capable of (i.e. a horse wins a race because HE is capable of it), but they sure can detract from it.

Bill

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by BillW



BUT ... there are a lot of trainers around that could turn War Emblem into competition for Zippy Chippy. :)

Trainers and jocks can rarely improve on what a horse is capable of (i.e. a horse wins a race because HE is capable of it), but they sure can detract from it.

Bill

Point Well Taken!!!!!!

[linrom1]

"Why would it work? You are betting on a low pct. jockey and trainer at low odds. You have no other information about your horse or the other horses in the race except that they have high pct. jockeys and trainers. You are betting against people who have been studying the racing form for hours and you expect to win by watching the tote board?"

I am not betting against those handicappers, I am betting based on their selections. I am betting with them against lukewarm favorites, on jocks whose usual odds are in double digits vs. elite riders, but, today they find themselves at short odds in RELATION to the top jocks where there is no apparent favorite; and they still finish up the track.

[tdthomas]

linrom1,
You really don't know who you are betting with and who you are betting against. What if the best horse in the race was 20-1? Can you know that by looking at the odds? I don't really know if your bet was good or bad without looking at the race, but in general, I don't think one can win consistently without doing the work.

[CamptownRaces.com]

Originally posted by tdthomas
You are betting against people who have been studying the racing form for hours and you expect to win by watching the tote board?
Off the main subject a bit, but I couldn't let this one just go on by without putting my 2 cents in...

I DO WIN "just from watching the board"...

Now, I'm not playing on an angle about trainers and jockeys, but I don't even know the horses names, and could care less...

There are MANY ways of playing this game...

To you TD, YES, I do expect to win just by watching the tote board!

Charles

PS The 5 books that I have written on this subject show exactly how I play...