In search of a "live" horse

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The name of the game is value in your selection and of course you want to invest on a so called "live" horse.What is your definition of a live horse,list the three or so factors or items that you need to be present in a horse for it to deserve the live horse tag.

My points are physical soundness using workouts and recent races and patterns present in the pp's along with the post parade view. Trainer intent is another yet more difficult yet important factor to pinpoint. Ability is another factor that can confirm a live horse today that will be running to win and bring forth an exceptional run for my money.I'm sure their are other more sophisticated factors and items used by this sites well informed players.

Any thoughts on how you uncover these choice "live" horses? once again thank you and good luck. Zappi

[kenwoodallpromos]

I view "live" as primed to win. After the handicapping is done, I say what makes a horse you handicap as a contender to be "live" is if it is placed in a race below its true purse value as to its ability, by the trainer.

[mhrussell]

Well, <and it's been this kind of week for me folks!> the horse needs to be breathing at the time it loads into the gate... and if the odds are greater than 30-1 and it has ANY kind of 'numbers' at all, I am taking a real, long look.

The storms are clearing, the noise and clatter is dying down and my handicapping life is becoming very, very simple: Pace advantages .. and price!

"To hear, one must be silent" - Ogion

[nobeyerspls]

Zappi
There are seven reasons to bet a race horse. They are in no particular order Uncontested Speed, Freshened Fillies, Change of Equipment(including lasix), Older Males Long to Short, Second Lifetime Start, Fillies Turf to Dirt, and Favorable Surface Change.
If you limit your wagers to horses from these angles you'll catch your share of longshots, some even over $100.
I'll start a thread tomorrow expanding on these.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Now I list 3 minor points to consider for a live horse:
Placed early in the racecard;
Jockey who can ride according to track conditions and surface;
4/5 odds.

[Overlay]

There are seven reasons to bet a race horse. They are in no particular order Uncontested Speed, Freshened Fillies, Change of Equipment(including lasix), Older Males Long to Short, Second Lifetime Start, Fillies Turf to Dirt, and Favorable Surface Change.
If you limit your wagers to horses from these angles you'll catch your share of longshots, some even over $100.
I'll start a thread tomorrow expanding on these.

I saw your first follow-up post today, and I'll be reading all of them with interest. I notice you seemed to be saying that it's "first come, first served" with regard to profiting from this angle. (In other words, those who notice the trend earliest will benefit the most from it.) Will considerations of wagering value or minimum acceptable odds on these plays enter the equation at some point? I was just wondering how to avoid mutuel prices being driven down below the point of profitability by these angles becoming too widely known or overbet.

At the other end of the odds spectrum, I'd also be interested in hearing the opinion of other board members as to the point at which a horse that you would ordinarily consider a "live" horse at overlay odds should instead be regarded as "dead on the board". In other words, when do high odds become a predictor of probable poor actual performance rather than an indicator of wagering value?

[toetoe]

Noble Guy,

What about recent barn change? I think that can trump any other angle, pos. or neg.

[sjk]

At the other end of the odds spectrum, I'd also be interested in hearing the opinion of other board members as to the point at which a horse that you would ordinarily consider a "live" horse at overlay odds should instead be regarded as "dead on the board". In other words, when do high odds become a predictor of probable poor actual performance rather than an indicator of wagering value?

I don't believe in the "dead on the board" concept. If a horse is a big enough overlay he should be bet. If he is an even bigger overlay, so much the better.

In my experience thinking too much about why I'm getting a great price on a horse is counter-productive. It can lead to betting a lesser amount on what could be a profitable play.

Looking at back-tested results, I find that if I select a subgroup of plays by taking only those with a larger ratio of actual odds to calculated odds, the percentage of return becomes larger. Of course the number of plays and total dollars won goes down.

[andicap]

Overlay/SJK,

I agree with SJK in principle except in one instance. When a horse on paper should be say, 2-1 and he's 5-1 or even 4-1 I get very very suspicious.
And I don't mean he should be 2-1 by any keen insights I might have. I mean 2-1 by the cold dope in the DRF -- high Beyers, sharp form, class of the field - all the factors the public usually hones in on.
Kind of like those land deals in Florida that turned out to be swamps.

To me the best bets are horses who I think should be say, 3-1, not because of what's in the Form, but because I think I've seen something the public has overlooked. Based on the Form the horse should be say, 8-1 or so. But if the horse is held at 5-1 or 4-1, I will double my wager. I like the horse, and someone else likes the horse -- and it ain't the public.

[sjk]

Andicap,

I look at it entirely the other way. If I make a horse 2-1, I would not bet him unless he was at least 4-1. I require at least an 80% overlay. I get more of these in the exacta pool than in the win pool.

There are times when I make a horse 3-1 and he is going off at 20-1. I am delighted to bet this type of horse. He will not win one time in four as my odds-line would indicate, but he will win way more than one time in twenty.

I don't concern myself with whether others are liking my horse; actually I would rather that they don't so that I get better prices.

[nobeyerspls]

Hi Overlay

The first to notice a speed bias profits over those who take a stand against it. It has nothing to do with the other angles. For example, a new surface was installed at my track several years ago (replaced again last year and this time they got it right). After that new track was put in, the high sand content made the rail lightening fast when the track was slightly wet (if you've walked a beach near where the surf ends you'll get the idea).
The #1 horses performed well as did those that broke fast and got to the rail. Foreknowledge of that would have produced enormous profits but it still worked for those of us that spotted after a few races.

[nobeyerspls]

Good point Toetoe

Maybe this is a candidate for number 8. I've used this but it may overlap the Freshened Filly, Change of Equipment, or Favorable Surface Change angles. I suppose the trainer stats will help identify both positives and negatives.

[skate]

nobey;


im waiting for the "fresened filly", thanks for the info.

it got my attention yesterday (8/13). after i missed this race, i wondered why?

the 10th @A.P., #9 bluesdancing 20/1.
record was 4-3-1-0
2nd in top class, 1st in most recent class with $104,000.


i liked the horse except for , cept for last raced (dec. 04), i wanted the works (at first glance) to be a little more frequent.
just a bad move on my part and im thinking about what you are saying, freshened fillies, gees i was not happy with myself.

horse paid bout $40.00

thanks again

[andicap]

SJK,
I agree with you on that usually. I pretty much never bet horses under 3-1 unless they are a solid low-priced overlay -- and that rarely happens -- (although I will hook up short odds horses with long-shot overlays in exotics).

Those circumstances I mentioned are pretty much exceptions to the rule of finding overlays. My steady style of play is to find one -- and even two if the odds are generous -- longshots (generally, tho not always odds >= field size) and key them in exotics.

[Overlay]

The first to notice a speed bias profits over those who take a stand against it. It has nothing to do with the other angles. For example, a new surface was installed at my track several years ago (replaced again last year and this time they got it right). After that new track was put in, the high sand content made the rail lightening fast when the track was slightly wet (if you've walked a beach near where the surf ends you'll get the idea). The #1 horses performed well as did those that broke fast and got to the rail. Foreknowledge of that would have produced enormous profits but it still worked for those of us that spotted after a few races.

Thanks for the elaboration. I understand the point you're making, but my concern was that after enough people know about this angle (or any other spot-play angle, for that matter), the volume of their wagers will drive the odds on the horses in question down to a point where profits dry up. But if you know what the actual winning percentage associated with the factor is, you can then bet only when the odds on a particular horse represent wagering value for that angle. So what I was trying to get at in my question was, what is the winning percentage for each of the factors you will be discussing (if you have that information)?

[how cliche]

nobey;


im waiting for the "fresened filly", thanks for the info.

it got my attention yesterday (8/13). after i missed this race, i wondered why?

the 10th @A.P., #9 bluesdancing 20/1.
record was 4-3-1-0
2nd in top class, 1st in most recent class with $104,000.


i liked the horse except for , cept for last raced (dec. 04), i wanted the works (at first glance) to be a little more frequent.
just a bad move on my part and im thinking about what you are saying, freshened fillies, gees i was not happy with myself.

horse paid bout $40.00

thanks again

Hi Skate. I know this is past posting. Bluesdancing was my "best bet" yesterday. For all the reasons detailed by you. That 2nd fastest of 61 move over the course outta the gate served notice, imo. First thing I did when I got to BM was put $20 to win on her. From there things just got better. Passed all the major stakes. Magical day. 3 for 3 on $ 20 win bets. Prices...$41.80, $46.00 & $19.80. 2 freshened fillies, 2 real solid plays. Big day on a $60 bankroll.

Not complaining,how can I? But I wish I'd played the pick 4 at Del Mar since I love to go in when I can find 2 singles and I had the extra cash after Bluesdancing and Lady Champagne(ARG) both won. I thought Willow o Wisp was an obvious winner and a single in the second leg, but hated 7/5 at post time. I also thought Candy Factory was a single in the final leg. I dind't pull the trigger though. My loss.