Q: How do you handle specific trainer handicapping at various meets?

[Turfday]

Hypothetical situation, but I'm sure this is a common occurence. So it's easy to use generalities.

An upper echelon, very good trainer, who normally wins with, let's say 22-25% of his starters as a whole, year-to-year, seems to "slump" down to and win with only about 15% at one of the race meets on his circuit.

You look at the three-year stats for this trainer and KNOW he has that STRONG win percentage with all starters over a long period of time with a big sample size.

Then you look at his win percentage at one of the meets on his circuit and they're GOOD...a percentage many trainers would be happy with... but they're not as good as the other meets he normally runs horses at. A trainer with a 15% constant win percentage is still an effective trainer.

How do you handicap his horses for the meet that his win percentage normally slips at, even though when he "slips" he is still effective (and knowing in the back of your mind, he normally wins at a much higher clip)? Do you expect the same to happen?

To me, this is a very tough call and would like to get a better grasp on it from the opinions on the board.

[nobeyerspls]

Good question Turfday
Trainer percentages can be misleading. A guy at my local track is winning at better than 50%. He is the beneficiary of nice horses from a high profile owner. I can't train a pigeon to poop on a statue but if you let me saddle a few of his, I'll look like a genious.
In the Fifties, Casey Stengel was a high percentage manager. I think I could fill out the lineup card and maybe get Mantle and Berra in the right spot. Give the ball to Whitey Ford and get a nice seat near the water cooler.
Also, some trainers with large public stables don't get to pick the spots for horses under their care. An over optimistic owner can make a trainer look bad by insisting that his horse compete over its head.
The best we can do is separate the wheat from the chaff.

[aaron]

If the trainer win % is down for the particular meet,I look for signs of a hot streak that might be forthcoming.I'll track his mounts for the last week to see if his horses are running.For example,if he had a few longshots that ran 2nd or 3rd that might be a tipoff that he will start winning again.If the trainer has seen his horses go through conditions,that could cause a drop in win%.I'll then look for him to drop horses down to win.
The best thing to do is just to track the trainer from day to day to see if you can spot something that will lead to the trainer getting hot.
This works with Dutrow horses in NY.He sometimes gets cold for a few weeks,but so far he always comes back.

[Master Shake]

I think it's all a matter of context. If the current meet is a "fair" or shorter meet, perhaps the trainer only brought a handful of his stable with him. Those horses may not represent the true quality of all of his runners. Or, perhaps, the trainer is focusing on a bigger meet that lies ahead, and is not "trying" as hard now. In either of these cases, it would obviously be better to discount him a bit.

On the other hand, a 25% trainer who drops to 15% may actually be performing as well (or better) than he ever has; but, if his competition is unusually fierce, his well-meant horses may simply be running into other good and well-meant runners from other stables. Are his runners getting nosed out at the wire? Or are they not firing at all? Are they running better or worse than their odds would indicate?

[Turfday]

no message

[parlay]

a visual inspection of the horse in the paddock and/or on post parade is invaluable in these situations. Sharppen your skills and you will know when his runners are live!

[CapperLou]

Bob:

Please check this out because I'm writing this on the fly, but one trainer who seems to do even better than usual (and he always does well) at SAR is Richard Violette. He seems to have his stock very ready for Saratoga and especially the FTS.
Last year he was on fire at the spa--but what are the differences in % between the Spa meetings and rest of year?

For you and my friends out west, Neil Drysdale has done well at Del Mar with 1st Start after 30+ day layoff.

Bob; check out the exact records on these two for us, but I do follow both along with other stuff--just a couple of examples--hope it helps!!

All the best,

CapperLou