You Have To Be Put Of Your Mind To Pay For Picks

[Nickle]

I could never understand why you would pay someone for picks as if they were so good they would bet themselves and be rich.

They are all losers

[twindouble]

I could never understand why you would pay someone for picks as if they were so good they would bet themselves and be rich.

They are all losers

Nickle; It's perplexing to me as well but anyone who is a good handicapper and can pick winners, sell thier picks to supplement their income by not risking their money all the more power to him or her. I think most handicappers get more out of the game by picking their own horses. I've even rejected handicapping software including the Beyer figures for that reason along with excepting I can do just as well if not better with the DRF. Taking this position runs contrary to the majority on this forum, all I have to do is look at what's being promoted here and advertised. I don't care to say anything negitive about what they are selling because I don't have a clue as to how successful players are using them or those that create their own software and figures. So, the likelihood of me fitting in here seems to be a difficult task and I'm sure I won't convert anytime soon.

Good luck,

T.D.

[Overlay]

I agree that there would be no logical reason for selection services that specialize in picking the one most likely winner of a race, regardless of its odds, to publicize their choices. But if you can come up with fair-odds lines which are sufficently accurate (for individual horses, full fields, exotic combinations, or all of these), you can both use them profitably yourself and provide the same information to others (either in the form of odds on specific selections or races, or through showing players how to make their own odds lines). You don't have to worry that greater public awareness of the information will drive mutuel prices below the point of profitability, since if one horse's odds are bet down below fair value, the odds of other horses in the same race will then be at higher than fair value. You can either pass the race altogether, switch to an overlay to win, or look for value in the exotic pools.

[Tom]

I have a deal for you....I'll GIVE you my picks, free.
Only pay me $20 when they win, otherwise, no charge.
Wattayagotta lose? :rolleyes:

[JackS]

Years ago, there used to be a selection service that advertised promintly in the LA Times. Typical set-up account and call for winning picks.
Every now and then the advertisement would read- "Tomorrow $200+ DD Guaranteed". I never used this service but I did use their $200 plus information to make my own picks in what was already handicapped by them to pay this much or more. The guarantee after all wasn't that they would sell you the winner just that it would pay more then $200. This is sort of getting an advance "tip" that the DD in question will be wide open.

[hurrikane]

oh the surface i agree but..

with the new handicapper, people at the track for the day for fun, people just looking for entertainment. Why not buy a tout sheet, have some fun, enjoy.

A lot of us are just in this for the money long term. The sport needs people that just go to the track for fun. Get some pick, have some fun, enjoy the day.

Maybe that's what the problem with the sport is....it's lost it's fun, luster, romatic appeal.

[WaHoo]

why buy a tip sheet too have fun, :lol: when you can speed thousands on programs and still have trouble picking winner

[BillW]

oh the surface i agree but..

with the new handicapper, people at the track for the day for fun, people just looking for entertainment. Why not buy a tout sheet, have some fun, enjoy.

A lot of us are just in this for the money long term. The sport needs people that just go to the track for fun. Get some pick, have some fun, enjoy the day.

Maybe that's what the problem with the sport is....it's lost it's fun, luster, romatic appeal.

'kane,

I agree. As I stated in another thread HOU gives people a tip sheet (usually printed on purple paper :) ) and teaches them a basic wagering strategy (bet win only unless over 4-1 then but show too - or something like that) and teaches them to place bets at the live teller cages and via the machines. These newbies are usually elated and often come back to the fan education room with a story of cashing their first ticket etc. They are having fun. I would bet that for those that the game does appeal to, it takes a half dozen trips to the track before that are interested in more in-depth information. Most probably just add it to their list of fun things to do list not differentiating it from a casino trip.

Bill

[dav4463]

There is the occasional day where I just go to the track on a whim. Somebody calls and says "let's go to the track". That is when I have used a tip sheet or selection service. I believe there are some excellent handicappers out there who do the best they can and provide you with some chances to make money. I made money when I bought HorseRacing Gold. In fact, I had a monster day. I lost once when I bought Valuline, but I like their style and the horses they picked were in many cases the same one I would have picked (after checking the form later). The Wizard puts his results out there for everybody and he is a good handicapper. You could do worse than these guys, but these three appear to be fairly solid. For the casual racing fan, I would recommend any of these three if they want to have fun and maybe make some cash.

[oddswizard]

Your assumption is wrong. I recently conducted a study of many of the top selection services and with proper money management amost all of them were profitable. Money management is the key to success with your picks, my picks, and the tipsters tips. Why pay for them? It eliminates a lot of handicapping time. I am not saying that all picks are worth the money. I am saying that several of them are worth the money. I will relay the actual results of these handicappers if you want. The key to winning is not the picks. The key is money management.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would love to see this study, and the method used therein....

[JustMissed]

Your assumption is wrong. I recently conducted a study of many of the top selection services and with proper money management amost all of them were profitable. Money management is the key to success with your picks, my picks, and the tipsters tips. Why pay for them? It eliminates a lot of handicapping time. I am not saying that all picks are worth the money. I am saying that several of them are worth the money. I will relay the actual results of these handicappers if you want. The key to winning is not the picks. The key is money management.


If you really want us to believe that what you wrote is true, how about posting some examples from those winning tipping services and show us how you structured your bets? Heck, if it is easier, just post your study!

That would be a great contribution to this board and prove that you are not talking just to hear your head rattle. :lol:

JM

[Tor Ekman]

I recently conducted a study of many of the top selection services and with proper money management amost all of them were profitable.

In this case, the definition of "money management" being: Bet only on the winners tips. :D

[JackS]

Daily on track seminars would be great for everyone . The on-track handicapper basically giving his personal opinion and answering questions for the novice and the experienced. Weather you can actually take these guys seriously would be a personal opinion. My opinion is that they really do know much more than the average patron and should be able to steer them to a few winners each day.
Great for public relations and eventual attendance and track handle.
I know many tracks do this already but from my knowledge, most are done on one day usually on a weekend. Have this feature everyday and many people will come just to attend and learn.
While I'm at it, all tracks need to spend time teaching their tellers how to relate to their customers. A few of these characters chase away as much money as they take in as bets. They are working for the track and taking home a paycheck each week but does anyone in management know or care that personal insults come standard with a few of these workers.?
All this seems simple but things are no better know then they were 25 years ago. They need to wake up.

[dav4463]

I think if you take one or two solid handicappers and follow their picks for a while. Record their winners, their odds, and what race types they are best at, you may find someone who shows a profit. With money management, you can make it profitable. This takes about as much work as handicapping though, and I enjoy doing my own handicapping. Still, there are those who just like betting and if they would learn money management and record keeping, I would bet they could show a profit. Most, not all, but most of these tipsters would not be doing what they are doing if they didn't love horseracing and were somewhat accomplished as handicappers. My opinion.

[BillW]

If you can

A. handicap a field of horses to determine a winner

B. handicap your own handicapping skills to turn a profit

Why couldn't you handicap a tipster/public handicapper and turn a profit?

Of course, if you can't do A or B ...

[twindouble]

If you can

A. handicap a field of horses to determine a winner

B. handicap your own handicapping skills to turn a profit

Why couldn't you handicap a tipster/public handicapper and turn a profit?

Of course if you can't do A or B ...

Bill; I see nothing wrong with getting a consensus on a race or races but the ultimate decision is yours anyway and it boils down to how you evaluate that information. Like you said, your still handicapping.

[BillW]

Yep, no blackbox here either.

[hurrikane]

I will relay the actual results of these handicappers if you want.

Ok, I'd like to see the actual results.

[Tom]

I think you could do something if you could isolate the strengths of the handciappers. Like, Russ Harris might be good in claiming races for older horses and stink in allowance races, so you would ignore all his allowance pics and focus on his claiming races slections. Or maybe Ed Fountaine is on fire on the grass and not too good on dirt, so you follow his turf plays. You need to keep records and know what is wheat and what is chaff, would be my guess.

[BillW]

I think you could do something if you could isolate the strengths of the handciappers. Like, Russ Harris might be good in claiming races for older horses and stink in allowance races, so you would ignore all his allowance pics and focus on his claiming races slections. Or maybe Ed Fountaine is on fire on the grass and not too good on dirt, so you follow his turf plays. You need to keep records and know what is wheat and what is chaff, would be my guess.
:ThmbUp: Yep, basically the same process you would use to evaluate yourself.

[oddswizard]

Here is the study. It includes a 30 day test of the tipsters tips. I used their horse selections and played them exactly as they said to do. Then I used their selections and my money management (called the ABC Money Management Formula) in order to prove the Money Management works with other handicappers selections. Results:

Source: Results vs ABC Formula

Brisnet Handicapper +$567.00 +$16,654.00

Let It Ride Handicapper -$3472.00 +$ 3527.00

National Turf Handicapper 1 +$1230.00 +$ 3122.00

National Turf Handicapper 2 -$1831.00 +$1845.00

Racing Digest Handicapper 1 +$ 225.00 +$5835.00

Racing Digest Handicapper 2 +$ 420.00 +$3743.00

Trackmaster handicapper -$1291.00 +$6144.00


I have not named the handicappers on purpose as I do not want to upset them as some of them are friends. However, I have named the sources of their picks. Most of them charge $20.00 per day for the informaiton.

[legs]

Oddswizard, where do I find that money management formula. Thanks

[xfile]

ABC Money Management Formula sounds pretty strong. Could you possibly share some insights about it? thanks

[oddswizard]

The formula took 2 years to develop. It is 60 pages long, but very simple when you understand the basics. Based on betting winners @ 4-1+ & exactas at $15.00+ on $1.00 exactas. Two accounting firms developed the win betting, I added the exacta formulas. Works like a charm if you are patient. Contact Gamblers Book Shop in Las Vegas 702-382-7555. It is in my book "Ten Steps To Winning." I do not sell the book directly to the public. Thanks.

[highnote]

The formula took 2 years to develop. It is 60 pages long, but very simple when you understand the basics. Based on betting winners @ 4-1+ & exactas at $15.00+ on $1.00 exactas. Two accounting firms developed the win betting, I added the exacta formulas. Works like a charm if you are patient. Contact Gamblers Book Shop in Las Vegas 702-382-7555. It is in my book "Ten Steps To Winning." I do not sell the book directly to the public. Thanks.

Why did it take two accounting firms to develop the win betting?

Anyone order this book, yet? Sounds interesting.

[GameTheory]

Why did it take two accounting firms to develop the win betting?

Anyone order this book, yet? Sounds interesting.It is not a new book. I've had the original edition for years. The money management part is new...

[highnote]

It is not a new book. I've had the original edition for years. The money management part is new...

OK. Can you give a review?

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being crap and 10 being a classic, how would you rate it?

[DrugSalvastore]

I'm actually considering putting an end to my everyday betting after Saratoga is over with--and moving to New York for the start of the Belmont Park meeting to do a tout sheet. The over-head is big...I hear it's like 1K a month for an apartment! And the tout sheet is almost certain to fail...because I just don't think it will sell.

It's a really tough life to bet horses for a living---mind-boggling work is required to be put in, and the quality of life you live ends up being miserable. I love everything about horse racing, and everything about betting, but I'm really starting to wonder how much other stuff in life I've been missing out on. I'm worth almost exactly $40,000 right now--so I can easily afford to try a ridiculious idea like going to New York for the entire Fall Championship meet at Belmont.

I have my personal detailed trip notes for every race run at a NYRA track this year---instead of selling a sheet with picks, I'd sell something with good and unique information that would be useful to all kinds of handicappers. If I decide to do it, my plan is to give the thing away free the entire first week, and the people can judge for themselves if having that kind of information for $5 a card is worth it to them.

Even if the idea fails (the line is 1-to-20 that it will) I'll still get to spend a couple months in New York city, I'll be able to be there for the Breeders Cup and all the big races, and I'll no doubt have a much better time than I would here. I really didn't enjoy my first trip to Saratoga nearly as much as I always did in the past--I plan to go back again for closing week---but I'm starting to feel like I need to move on with my life and do something else. It's hard to move on when you have no other talents though. I don't know if I'm even capable of doing anything productive with my life outside of horse racing. Time always tells though.

[kenwoodallpromos]

" if you could isolate the strengths of the handciappers".
I'm ready to buy the book as soon as you write it!

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey DS, you could always take up poker....

And $1,000 a month for an apartment barely gets you into someone's basement out in Long Island....I hope you weren't thinking about living in the city....

[DrugSalvastore]

Hey DS, you could always take up poker....

And $1,000 a month for an apartment barely gets you into someone's basement out in Long Island....I hope you weren't thinking about living in the city....

I'm not any good at poker.

I saw something on www.rent.com (http://www.rent.com) that showed an appartment close to Belmont for 1K a month. After what you just said---I bet the place is dumpy.

You can get a pretty nice place for less than 1K a month where I am now. I don't need anything real nice anyway....but if I go there to do a handicapping guide, I'm expecting it to fail anyway, mainly because of overhead, the big thing is just that I'll get to have fun at the track and see the city.

I might even stop by and visit Allen Jerkens, and ask if I can work for him for nothing. I've been told by a lot of people that you can learn more from him than anyone else--and he will help you with a lot of things if he thinks you are serious about learning and working. I could, from there, go to a much smaller track and get a training license. Both of my parents trained horses, and know many active trainers today--so I would have a lot of people to help me through any early problems I encounter. It's hard to figure out what the right thing to do with your life is--I'm starting to realize that maybe it isn't betting.

[SAL]

Hey DS did you consider selling your info online? If you're charging $5 per day I'd certainly be interested.......

[Skanoochies]

Hey DS, sounds like a hell of an undertaking. Kudos to you for having the guts to try it. I wish you good luck and great success. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

OK. Can you give a review?

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being crap and 10 being a classic, how would you rate it?

GameTheory.....could you perhaps rate the book....for some reason, my memory of this thread was jogged so I thought I'd breath new life into it...

[chickenhead]

If it's the money management side of it you're interested in, you might call on Dave S. as well, I seem to recall he said it spurred him on to a decent nugget.

I haven't read his book, but have been to some of Danny's seminars..seems like a good guy, he fairly gracefully put up with boorish Vic Stauffer sitting next to him for an hour.

Also, while I haven't seen him do it I would bet money that Danny can do the meanest Jack Lemmon imitation on the planet.

[GameTheory]

I have an older edition without the money management stuff. The author posts here as OddsWizard I believe. Nothing revolutionary for experienced handicappers, but definitely would recommend to a newer player overwhelmed by information to get some structure into their game. He recommends handicapping sprints with pace and routes with class, which has been slightly controversial here. One of the more sensible books I've read, with actual concrete advice in it. But again, advanced handicappers aren't going to get much out of it except as a refresher. I give it a 6.5...

[GameTheory]

Talking about 10 Steps To Winning by Danny Holmes, btw. Mentioned by name somewhere up there...

[Tom]

Here is an on-line eview at Amazon......

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0897091728/qid=1134882655/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/002-4314411-2856057?n=507846&s=books&v=glance

And sadly, it is a shame to have to talk about this one, but it looks like it has some info we all should consider......

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1931993602/qid=1134883028/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/002-4314411-2856057?s=books&v=glance&n=283155