View Full Version : AD & DICK Schmidt & 2horses
Derek2U
05-23-2002, 06:32 PM
If it weren't You posting the strategy of betting 2 (or more) horses
per race & claiming a profit ... I wouldn't believe it for a sec.
First, dutching & having the winner 540 / 1000 is paltry.
Second, that method of putting more on the lower odds horse
makes zero sense. Third, your ROI from that strategy appears
too high for such a weak selection/wagering method.
The few guys I know who bet 2 horses per race do so because
they have found, after many many thousands of races, that
their second-highest rated horse will win just as often as their
top rated horse --- with zero reference to its odds. And, for these
few dutchers, having the winner among their top 2 hovers around
65-75 of the time.
Now back to my original idea: IF A HANDICAPPER PICKS 1 HORSE
PER RACE ... and IF HE HAS DONE THIS FOR SEVERAL THOUSAND
RACES... AND EVEN IF HE LOOSES MONEY BY SIMPLY BETTING HIS
TOP PICK TO WIN, it may be possible to bring him into the black
with a betting formula cause the betting formula can add up to
10% more ROI to his bottom line. BUT, HE MUST HAVE GOOD
RECORDS ON HIS win percent & payoff first.
anotherdave
05-23-2002, 07:00 PM
First you say 54% is paltry (75% I don't think so, but then again I am apparently not in your league). Then you say you don't believe the ROI. If your friends with 75% in the top 2, can you imagine the ROI! They must be millionaires.
Why all the venom? I don't come here for that. If you want to disagree, that's fine, but this is not necessary. It is irritating and embarrassing.
AD
Derek2U
05-23-2002, 07:14 PM
hehe you guys must be ultra sensitive: I can't detect any venom
in what I just typed. YES .... there are some guys who pick & bet
2 horses to win and they dont use odds to decide who to bet ...
they have developed a handicapping system independent of the
final odds, but the 2 horses that they bet is THEIR TOP 2 PICKS
for that race. Period. Then, as they have told me, 1 of their top
2 picks WIN (on the average) MORE than 2/3rds of the time.
Now, what, preyTell, is what I just typed venomous?
anotherdave
05-23-2002, 07:33 PM
Originally posted by Derek2U
Now, what, preyTell, is what I just typed venomous?
1.The put-downs seem venomous to me
2.The capitalization.
Although others may disagree. (Previous comments about the tone of your posts also mention this)
I still am at a loss to what your thread "Helpful ROI formula" was about. There was nothing in it, despite many attempts on my part to have you elaborate. I enjoy this board because I can converse with other horseplayers and exchange information, not to be preached at.
AD
hdcper
05-23-2002, 07:59 PM
AnotherDave,
I agree 100% with your comments.
hdcper
I learned betting two horse a race from Dick (and Doc) and that has been my primary method of betting for over ten years now.
10+ prfitable years. It works. Period.
As for your comment about turning a losing method into a winner by applying some magical formula, bull!
I have seen more crap about this over the years than I can count - if it loses it is a loser. As Darth Vader once said, "May the farce be with you!"
Dick Schmidt
05-23-2002, 11:43 PM
Derek,
It is certainly possible to drive a 70+ win percentage, but to do so you must be very selective with the races you play and accept a lot of low priced winners. However, you miss the point. The game isn't about hitting a lot of races, it's about making money (at least the way I play it.)
54% isn't "paltry" (which is an insult, by the way), nor is 75% necessarily a good thing. I've done the 70% thing, and made money. Nowadays, with the popularity of pace handicapping, I make more money using more horses and playing every race on the card with 3 or more starters who have run before. If you want to just talk win percentage, how about this? I bet only one horse in about 6% of the races I handicap. I hit almost 80% of those races. If win percentage were really important, I'd just play those races and be king of the world. What would you say to a player like Mark Cramer, who hits about 15% of the races he plays, yet drives a very nice profit? His way fits him, my way fits me and at the end of the day, it's who goes home with the most money who is the true winner.
Dick
superfecta
05-24-2002, 02:29 AM
Originally posted by Derek2U
Now back to my original idea: IF A HANDICAPPER PICKS 1 HORSE
PER RACE ... and IF HE HAS DONE THIS FOR SEVERAL THOUSAND
RACES... AND EVEN IF HE LOOSES MONEY BY SIMPLY BETTING HIS
TOP PICK TO WIN, it may be possible to bring him into the black
with a betting formula cause the betting formula can add up to
10% more ROI to his bottom line. BUT, HE MUST HAVE GOOD
RECORDS ON HIS win percent & payoff first. Derek,can you give an example of a betting formula?I have been looking to find one that works reasonably well,without betting serious cash.
I don't keep records of my win pick% or ROI,I just keep track how much I have bet,how much I have won.Real easy that way,but not very scientific sounding.I tried to get my % and ROI,but it didn't sound right saying I win about 5% of the bets I make ,but have a ROI of 6.oo.
If you can get 54% winners on your top two horses in every race and you're not winning money you're definitely missing the point. Looking for 70% winners on the top two in every race is a good way to never be a winner. You'll spend too much time searching for the perfect method and not enough time capitalizing on what you already know. We all know of methods that have just about any win % and any ROI you can mention, but the number of plays are so few you'd have to be a fool to play that way. It's who wins the most at the end of a year (or lifetime) who's the biggest winner. I'm amazed that people make fun of the pros who have the largest annual income because their ROI is low. The stability of a low ROI, high number of plays approach is very attractive in my opinion, and I know how to do it both ways. Since I don't really need the income, I'm inclined to take more chances than I need to, but for someone whose sole source of income is horse racing, I'd recommend the more conservative approach.
pic6vic
05-28-2002, 04:23 PM
I must agree with Dick and AD. I don't know them personally, but
the idea of playing 2 or more horses per race is a great way of playing. I probably do more work on the races than most amatuers[do not make a living at the races]. I subscribe to a lot of information (not tips). I play mostly win. Dick's way makes sense and if I could hit 54% with 2 picks per race I would probably quit my job. Corect me if I'm wrong. I rather play every race playing 2 or more horses than play one race a day with my best play. The losing streaks would be minimal therefore I could turn my money over quicker, therefore trh ROI need not be big.
Think about what he is saying, its a great way to play and make money.
tanda
05-28-2002, 04:44 PM
Think about what he is saying
That is a huge request as my reading of Derek2U's posts indicates he may not be capable of thinking ... at least if you consider thinking to require intelligent thought.
boxcar
05-28-2002, 07:33 PM
tanda wrote:
>>
That is a huge request as my reading of Derek2U's posts indicates he may not be capable of thinking ... at least if you consider thinking to require intelligent thought.
>>
Hmm...but D2U claims he's gainfully employed. If so, that would seem to imply some native intelligence on his part -- unless the government has broadened the scope of Affirmative Action programs that now require companies to set quotas for the hiring of the Acutely Dumbed Down.
Boxcar
Lefty
05-28-2002, 10:17 PM
Boxcar, I wonder why he would work at a job when he has that great betting formula?
alyingthief
05-29-2002, 04:00 AM
personally, i didn't see the man's comments as venomous...i certainly saw a bunch of guys being very venomous in response...crude, may i say. and the man merely states that two horse betting is preferable.
what is the average age of the respondents on this website?
andicap
05-29-2002, 07:45 AM
I have to agree. I reread Derek2U's post and found it highly complementary to Dick. Derek said "if it weren't you, I wouldn't believe it for a second."
Everyone knows Dick has huge credibility and Derek was just acknowledging that as well as carrying a healthy skepticism about what he reads.
I think with the CAPS he was using for emphasis to make sure his point was heard.
I am curious as to this betting formulas he keeps mentioning. Is he speaking hypothetically? And Derek, I'm not sure what you mean by a formula that would add 10 points to the ROI with single horse betting. I think this is what has most of the people on here confused.
Keeping records, of course, everyone knows is essential.
boxcar
05-29-2002, 09:12 AM
alyingthief posted:
>>
personally, i didn't see the man's comments as venomous...i certainly saw a bunch of guys being very venomous in response...crude, may i say. and the man merely states that two horse betting is preferable.
>>
what is the average age of the respondents on this website?
About 18-1/2 -- which is right around the I.Q. level of D2U.
Boxcar (Public Relations Officer of CrudeRUs)
anotherdave
05-29-2002, 01:00 PM
Originally posted by andicap
I am curious as to this betting formulas he keeps mentioning. Is he speaking hypothetically? And Derek, I'm not sure what you mean by a formula that would add 10 points to the ROI with single horse betting.
Don't ask. I've been through that already. See thread "Helpful ROI formula"
As far as Derek being venomous, maybe I chose the wrong word, but even Dick said he insulted him in his reply.
AD
alyingthief
05-30-2002, 02:48 PM
well, it it's anyone to point fingers at unpleasant replies, it's dick.
alyingthief
05-31-2002, 01:15 PM
derek: you will have to explain how a betting method can change the vital statistics, i'm a little unclear on this one. i think the experts claim that the mathematics of wagering is pretty much cut and dried--no, make that, the mathematics of paramutuel wagering is pretty much cut and dried; and every single text i've examined denies any wagering method the ability to alter the basics of win percentage and roi--you can maximize a profit up to the limits these stats permits, but not further (which implies, conversely, that the improper wagering method will detriment one's expected optimum return). i'll grant you that a mathematician almost invariably reminds me of a priest with a chili pepper up his butt, so they're both just a pain in the ass, but hey, that's mathematics! (and priestliness)
oh, and 5,000.
alyingthief
05-31-2002, 03:13 PM
well, to tell the truth, rick, i'm being a great deal of the devil's advocate here. but i do think when you make a statement like "i look over ten tracks in a lunch break", you really are being ridiculous, though not maliciously so. what you ARE doing is looking for a target you can hit, and focusing on it, is this not true? i've done it myself, slip into harrah's, and glance at all the tracks on the screens, hey, i like that track, i can do that track! scan the pp's at the board there, chew my chin, and decide i like buttholelouie in the third at monmouth, to place. hell, i probably have a positive ROI doing it; but i sure as hell wouldn't if i tried doing it that way for a living. i used to have a great ROI in turf, until i found out i had a great ROI, and preoccupied myself with it for a while. guess what, not so great an ROI when played for real money: this game is too hard, too fluid, and too seductive to bow to simplicities.. and anyone who says it isn't is hardly trustworthy. nor have they any idea of the mathematics they buck when they paint such pictures.
the problem i have with all these claims of 75 races, 30% ROIs, and more is both experiential--they run very counter to everything i've SEEN and DONE at the game--and rational--particularly when i find such claims moderated, when derided, by the claimants themselves, which absolutely raises a flag of alarm in my reasoning. if you go through mr. schmidt's posts you will see a lot of contradiction in numbers, in days devoted to the races, in time spent on records; and if you go to HSH website's BB you'll find even more. these contradictions may well be explainable, but they are contradictions, and i would like them explained, if possible--i have the memory of the sartin people, and the mitchell people, and all the systems and method sellers out there to give me pause: but since it's hardly expectable that a methodologist will explain his contradictions, if it compromises his wallet, i just point fingers and laugh. i don't at all deny that one can bet 50 races in twenty minutes--i do deny the profitability of it. indeed, i'm serious about wagering against the claim. the way i figure it, i have a roughly 4,000,000 to one chance of winning. too good an odd to pass up.
i must remind you, that the two men most asservative about the validity of these claims is the man who MAKES HIS LIVING SELLING THE SOFTWARE AND SUPPORT used to produce these outrageous numbers, AND A MAN WHO GIVES SEMINARS IN BEHALF OF SAID MAN. am i being ridiculous in laughing at your gullibility? or in refusing to participate in it? is this sartin all over again?
mr. schmidt says he has worked on his method for 6 months: i suggest to mr. schmidt he send me his database, or you his database, hell, any of us his database, and his HSH program, and his method, and i will run the numbers. if in fact the system works, i'll tell you all, and pay for the program and the data base. i'll publicly kiss the man's butt at high noon on broadway, you bet. i'll go further, i'll pay the man 10,000 dollars for the system. hell, i'll mortgage my fucking house for it.
it would be worth it, a 30% ROI on 54% winners with a rollover on 75 races a day? my god, gimme, gimme!!!!!--i should acquire IBM within two weeks, and the golden pagoda in tibet, absolutely. THINK ABOUT IT, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!! do you have any idea what kind of money this represents? you needn't even bet optimally, nor into the smaller pools: you're talking 5000 dollar bets within mere days! jesus fucking christ wake the fuck up!!!!!!!
mr. schmidt flips his wrist at "the source" of these considerations, and that is sufficient, and always has been, to the faithful. but gentlemen, you may seriously believe christ will rise from the crypt, but it ain't necessarily so--and faith has burnt more sinners than scepticism has ever saved, you bet.
Dave Schwartz
05-31-2002, 03:24 PM
Let me get this straight...
Someone posts a question to a participant of this board, that participant responds and then a guy who posts under the psuedonym of "Alyingthief" attacks because these ideas "...run very counter to everything i've SEEN and DONE at the game."
Simply put, I have had enough of your non-productive diatribe.
It never ceases to amaze me that we (horseplayers), as a group, ask for someone, ANYONE, to come forward and tell us how they succeed at wagering, then, when a response is forthcoming the person providing the solution is called a liar because it doesn't fit in with our experience! So, you can't do it that way therefore it can't be done that way?
Mr. Lying, I ask you this... What do you have to offer to the members of this board besides attacks? Is there anything productive you have to offer?
With contempt,
David Schwartz
azmike
05-31-2002, 03:39 PM
My experience with posters of this ilk is to ignore them. If you try to engage in discussion with them it proves fruitless. When they reach a certain low level (profanity etc) then you hope the board administrator will take action including barring them from "contributing".
alyingthief
05-31-2002, 03:55 PM
you might check out my post to the "favorites" thread under this topic heading, mr. schwarz: it's the kind of information would cost 24.95 and shipping costs to the unsuspecting. you might also look at all the posts i've offered which do not have you or your systems in them--generally they are helpful and informative, and based solidly in statistical research, or in money management mathematics.
but come, mr. schwarz, answer the questions i have posed you and your seminar cohort. i'm very sure YOU ARE tired of my diatribe, i would be too, were i you. let me ask you, if i may, how many of your 534 dollar programs have you sold to participants of this web site? i know i found my fingers itching when i read of 30% ROI and 54% win rates, and 75 races a day. indeed, i asked my wife if she'd go naked for a month so's i could bet the rent money on the purchase. i promised her tokyo japan in recompense.
do i have this wrong? is this a system seller's bbs? or is it just a system seller's BS?
me, i will grant that you don't diatribe--but i have yet to glean the kind of information from you or your associate, mr. schmidt, as i have from rick, andycap, gametheory, and a few other contributors. multiple horse wagering has been around since at least pittsburgh phil, so i'll not be too thankful for that....
what is a vampire?
karlskorner
05-31-2002, 04:11 PM
I just got home from the track.
DID I MISS ANYTHING ????
Where do I start
Saw this bumper sticker in the horsemens lot.
THE REASON PEOPLE WORK IS BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW HOW TO HANDICAP
Think I will make up a 100 and send to ever wants one.
Karl
I used to wonder why Ernie Dahlman (& others) never posted on horse boards.
I wonder no mo'...
keilan
05-31-2002, 04:49 PM
To Mr. Schwartz , Mr. Schmidt
I'm not looking for a lot of dialog on this. But Alyingthief has put $5000.00 up. Why has everyone avoided this betting opportunity? Isn't that what some of us do for a living. If someone were questioning my integrity it may give me some degree of satisfaction to shut them up on a public forum and in addition take $5000.00 biscuits out of their pocket.
To shrug this off and accuse Alyingthief of attacking someone is just silly. Gentlemen its time to put up or move onto another topic.
Dave Schwartz
05-31-2002, 05:18 PM
Mr. Thief,
Let us consider the possibility of proceeding with a bet of some sort...
First, we will need your real name, address, phone number, etc.
Second, we will need to come to an understanding about exactly what the bet is. Would you please define the terms that you have in mind?
Third, we will have to have a 3rd party hold the funds. Personally, I would trust PA. Would that be acceptable to you?
DS
Dave Schwartz
05-31-2002, 05:22 PM
Keilan,
No, he has not yet put up anything, not even his real name. But perhaps we shall see.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
Keilan,
I'm not looking for much dialog on this either. My opinion is this...if he has a db that was valuable, why in the hell w/ he give it away for 5k?
There's no way in hell I'd "give" copies of my claimed from charts to anyone. I've given some general claiming info to a few on the board privately but I wouldn't sell that 'specific' stuff for any price. If Dick's db is as sucessful as he claims, lyintheif has to come forth with MUCH more cash, and do it up front. That's just my view.
I think some of lyinthief's schtick is funny, some has merit, even. But what he's asking of Dick is not practical. It's one-sided.
Dick Schmidt
05-31-2002, 05:35 PM
Thief,
OK. My house. Any weekend day you choose, 24 hour advance warning. The first thing through my front door is $5,000 in cash.
As for me sending you my database (I don't use one) and my program: Yeah, that could happen.
And yes, I consider Dave Schwartz a friend, and I do attend many of his seminars when I have the time (one for two this year), but I don't actually get PAID for them. I do it because I use his program and this is a way to give some back to others. At Dave's last workshop, I let one of the participants (posts here as Kitts) pick a date and I demonstrated my entire procedure on two cards, neither of which I had looked at before. Handicapped 18 races, showed a nice profit (over 50%) and did the whole thing, discussions and all in under 90 minutes. No mystery here.
Tell you what, next time Dave has a workshop, you can come as my guest and watch what I do. I'll cheerfully answer any questions you may have and give you a complete demonstration of how I use HSH. See you there. Or just knock. With your bankroll.
Dick
Thief and the rest,
I judge a person by their actions. I recently posted a problem I had with an old Sartin program and that I could not resolve with the new Sartin group. Instantly, Dick Schmidt posted for me to email him and instantly he tried to help. He was not obligated in any way but I believe that is just Dick.
Says allot about a person.
alyingthief,
I understand why you're so tired of reading about false claims, but I think you're blaming the wrong people. Although some of them have been associated with hucksters before, I don't think that necessarily means they are lying about properly using the methodology. I don't say that anything they do is impossible, but it seems to be very hard for others to repeat what they do using a fixed set of rules. So now we're back to the "handicapping guru" theory and that doesn't help me with my methods at all since I have absolutely no intuition about these things. The only thing that's ever worked for me it a well tested set of rules or procedures. The true handicapping artists out there have my utmost respect, but I don't understand what the hell you're doing and I don't think you could teach it to me.
alyingthief,
Are you going to follow through on your 5k wager? Apparently Mr. Schmidt and Mr. Schwartz are eager to take you up on it.
Bob Harris
05-31-2002, 08:18 PM
Originally posted by Rpd
Thief and the rest,
I judge a person by their actions. I recently posted a problem I had with an old Sartin program and that I could not resolve with the new Sartin group. Instantly, Dick Schmidt posted for me to email him and instantly he tried to help. He was not obligated in any way but I believe that is just Dick.
Says allot about a person.
If Dick has a fault, and I personally think it's an attribute, it's his low tolerance of laziness. Some people flat out need a kick in the ass and I'm slow to do it.
Ten years or so ago, I was having a problem with TEH not running on a bottom of the food chain Toshiba I was using. Dick spent a good 30 minutes on the phone with me while I changed buffers and God knows what else.
If you're willing to work and listen, he is more than willing to help. If you are looking to do as little as possible, you would have a higher chance of survival hand feeding Big Macs to a tiger.
Dick Schmidt
05-31-2002, 08:38 PM
Mr. Robert Harris,
Sir, how dare you use the word fault in the same sentence with my name and not include the words "has no"?
I hearby challange you to a $10,000 handicapping contest.
Richard Schmidt, esq.
P.S. Thanks for the kind words, Bob.
alyingthief
06-01-2002, 04:15 AM
i think october will do just fine for a work out of this man's madness: i will be in britain for the months of august and september, as business must come before pleasure.
i am profoundly eager to be proven wrong in this; as i've stated, the thought of having a method which, if the figures are true, would defray the national debt in say, three weeks, is a great source of excitement for me. if i lose, i win hugely; if i win, well, i win not so hugely. how can i lose?!
i believe you can email me via this web. we will discuss the terms of the wager privately, as i'm not willing to post my particulars before god and everybody.
Dick Schmidt
06-01-2002, 04:47 AM
Thief,
Hell, you're not even willing to poat your name before anybody. Say hello to England for me.
Goodbye,
Dick
Larry Hamilton
06-01-2002, 08:52 AM
This reminds of a paradox from H.W. Lewis, Why Flip A Coin.
The Cretan, Epimenides, once proclaimed, "All Cretans are liars."
2500 years later, we are faced with a persom who refers to themself as a liar and a thief. SO one wonders, is he a liar, or is he lying about being a liar? As to being a thief in addition, what is being stolen? Our time...
For once a person is branded with "liar" and "thief", even if by themselves, do they really have anything to say?
Dick,
Be careful here. He could be going home to his native land Wales this summer. There might be a bad omen there regarding his willingness to pay when he loses.
SHIFT key!
SHIFT key!
~G~
Let's not lose CTRL here Tom.
alyingthief
06-01-2002, 11:51 AM
actually, i assumed this moniker out of envy: i too wish to be known as a system and method developer, and promise my fellow men financial heydiho at whoopitupdowns. since to be perfectly candid, i couldn't devise a gimmick, cauz i'm a lackwit, i thought just calling myself an usedcarsalesman or, happily, a lyingthief, might nonetheless provide me a course into your wallets, i mean your trust... men trust thieves and liars--in fact, i have a bridge on ebay even as we speak, no reserve--and distrust honest folks, so believe me, if i could sneak up on your folly with a grin and a holler, i would, or even mount a wooden cross and promise you eternal redemption, say, or lazarus from the crypt, i'd do that.
hamlet knew us well, my friends: doubt truth to be a liar...
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