A Different Approach

[nobeyerspls]

It was difficult back then. You got to the track, bought your form, and realized that you didn't like the card. Then along came simulcating with multiple tracks and you realized you could assemble your own card. Two races from track A, three races from track B, etc until you had a nice ten race "card" with races you expected to win.
This means avoiding the practice of handicapping and betting sequentially (handicap,bet,turn page from race 1 to 10) and scanning all the races to locate high return opportunities. What then are the criteria for including or excluding a race? For me the answer is simple - VALUE. As an exotic player I want live longshots.
With nearly fifty years at the races and as a guy that has owned and bred horses, I have found seven reasons to bet a race horse. If one of those is present in a race, that race could be on my card. The only thing to eliminate it is low odds or too many other contenders. For example, Freshioned Fillies is among the seven. I'll scan all the filly & mare sprints looking for entrants that have been freshioned and then, if they pass other suitability tests, they are among the candidates for inclusion. I then repeat the scan for the six other angles. At the end of this process I'll have ten to twelve races with horses ranging from 5-1 to 50-1 morning line odds.
By 8:00 AM I have my card assembled for the day and I then construct the exotics that include my plays. You need to be aware of post times for the various races as the card unfolds but that just means paying attention.
This distillation process has served me well. Anyone else doing this?

[Skanoochies]

Sounds like a reasonable approach. Don`t you find that when consructing exotics, it severely limits pick 3s and 4s by choosing maybe just a couple or so from four different tracks. Freshioned Fillies? Never heard of that concept. Is there some reason they would be more favorable than colts, geldings, older horses, etc. that have been freshioned? Interesting. :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Thank you for the 1 of 7 angles!

[nobeyerspls]

Hi Skanoochies

The limited number of races actually enhances horizontal plays, particularly when two races are in sequence or act as bookends in a pick 3. I frequently go deeper in those other races and once in a while use the all button.
The mantra is "freshioned fillies/cold colts". It's probably physiology based but most male horses need a race before finding peak performance. The two exceptions are the offspring of Meadowlake and Phone Trick as they run cold. It's easy to verify this angle. Take any printed version of the form and look through the past performances of fillies. They use a line now to identify gaps in races so you'll see some nice scores at good odds.
I hit one that paid over a $100 to win. She had two months off following three lousy races (her last three beyers were zero). It was nw2 clm $10000 at Fairgrounds. She had broken her maiden in New York clm $20000 much earlier in the year. She was working well and that is important with this angle.

[JackS]

A situation I like is usually a cheap Claiming race at an unusual distance. The race is 10 horses or more and contains sprinters trying a route for the first time and shippers trying a new track for the first time. The race also contains routers who will be running this unusual distance for the first time.
It's easy to see why in such a situation, most handicappers and the public will be completely snowballed trying to seperate out the possible eventual winner in such a race.
The race might be 1m40/1m70 as an example. The public will usually settle on a horse with a perceived class advantage with route experience as their top choice and possibly a route win at todays track.
Nothing wrong with this angle except the price and you can feel confident that the winner will probably not be this horse.
Of course you will be burned now and then by the favorite but not enough to off-set the potential profits from such a race.
Just a couple of things to think about the next time you run into a race that fits this description.

[nobeyerspls]

A mile and 70 yards is 40 yards shorter than a mile and 1/16th so it is not so unuasual at my track. Maidens going a mile and 1/8 however is. For sprinters trying a distance for the first time, conformation is your best friend. Not stocky and long-backed will route.