What does your win percentage mean to you?

[twindouble]

Average wager $200.00

Average plays per day 6

Hit pick 6 $42,000.00 (one bet,

Hit 3 supers $18,700.00 (3 bets.

Hit 3 trifectas $ $2400.00 (3 bets

Hit 22 exacta's $880.00 (22 bets. Estimated

Hit 15 win bets. $320.00 (15 bets. Estimated

lost all other wagers.

Total winning wagers. (44

Total losing wagers ( (124

Total wagers (168

Grossed ------ $63,600.00

Total investment. $33,600.00

Net profit before ink, paper and taxes ------ $30,000.00

Ok, ok, that's not counting the steaks and beer.

I think my win % for the month is a lousy 28% there abouts.

Keep in mind, what I did was, add up my W2-G tax forms for that MO. That accounted for the majority of my winnings, my average wager is reasonably stated. The exacta average payoff was $40.00 plus or minus a couple bucks not totaly right but close. The win wagers aren't right on but like the exacta I would guess both are within 2 or 3 % plus or minus.


This is the first time in 44 years I even bothered to look at figures like this, there seems be alot math kicked around here so I did. Granted I picked one of the better months I had for the year but I must add I know at times I had much higher win percentages with less profit and also months I don't want to talk about because it's history, nothing to do with the race in hand.

What inspired this post was, I read a responce in another thread where someone said they needed help because he was only winning a 33% rate.

On another note, I've had better Months through out the the years and better years. Not with standing those years where I'm not sure if I won or lost, nip and tuck as one might say. Plus as a young man I was spending and having a good time, that creates a very high over head when there's woman involved and it's not easy to keep focused on the races anyway. :cool:

Good luck,

T.D.

[ryesteve]

What inspired this post was, I read a responce in another thread where someone said they needed help because he was only winning a 33% rate.
I think what he said was that he needed help because he was winning at that clip but still not making money.
I'm gonna guess that he wasn't talking about pick 6's and supers though :)

[toetoe]

Twindy,

33% is plenty high. He just needs 7- and 8-buckers instead of 6-buckers. A drop of a few points in exchange for a boost of a dollar or two in avg. payouts is well worth it.

[hurrikane]

I would easily take 18 to 20 % win rate, be able to bet 600 races a month and have an ROI of 1.18. with rebates the churn is king. I would give up a lot of win % to get more money through the gate.

win % only tells me what percent of bankroll to bet. at 20% I would do 2% of bank. outside of that it is rather meaningless.

[mcikey01]

"What inspired this post was, I read a responce in another thread where someone said they needed help because he was only winning a 33% rate."

The best advice I can offer to the bloke dissatisfied with his 33% win rate is to spot play "walkovers".

[twindouble]

I think what he said was that he needed help because he was winning at that clip but still not making money.
I'm gonna guess that he wasn't talking about pick 6's and supers though :)

Ok, if that the case lets talk a little more math and history. The average Realtor's commission is 6%, one guy sells 10 house that MO. for average price of $100,000 another guy sells one house for 2 million and 3 others for $300,000. Get the point? It's obvious the 2nd guy is in a better market, sure he has to invest more money to reach that market but who's better off?

As far the historical aspect of wagering on the horses goes, we throw backs at one time had one thing in mind, that was to pick winners. Over the years the market for us has expanded for into a variety of pools to tap. The most success I ever had was the advent of the twindouble, seperate pool larger payoffs, Esp with the exchange aspect.

So, what's your market? Win bets, exacta's tri's, pick 3,4,or 6, supers, place, show, pick 8,9, DD's, super tri's, dime supers and then there's the choose pick 6, :bang:

I would suggest the most players don't know how the evaluate a race or races for the potential for good payoffs taking those markets into concideration. The majority would say "I got the winner." Whoop de do, I get excited when I can't find a clear winner because I know dam well here's a race I could make a lot money by betting it alone in the gimmicks, or including it in other races, different pools. A good example of the that is that pick 6 I posted along with the supers. To me your no less of a handicapper if your covering horses with value that that have a shot to hit the board. Not only that, in one of those supers, the chalk ran a tiring 3rd. No, your not going to hit them all but when you do, your home free.

Where am I today? To be honest I'm a tired man compared to where I was 10 years ago, lived fast, worked hard and somewhat burnt out, my desire to put the extra effort into racing has diminished. That's why I'm here, it supplements my existance. That don't mean I can't pick them and make a buck as well as the next guy. Besides who would ever think I would stop chacing woman. Who in their right mind wouldn't measure their success by the respect they get from others and your ability to attract the right woman or many if that's your thing. Just to let you know, I ended up with the right one, she handicaps as well. :)

Good Luck,

T.D Sorry to bore you.

[formula_2002]

Average wager $200.00

Average plays per day 6

Hit pick 6 $42,000.00 (one bet,

Hit 3 supers $18,700.00 (3 bets.

Hit 3 trifectas $ $2400.00 (3 bets

Hit 22 exacta's $880.00 (22 bets. Estimated

Hit 15 win bets. $320.00 (15 bets. Estimated

lost all other wagers.

Total winning wagers. (44

Total losing wagers ( (124

Total wagers (168

Grossed ------ $63,600.00

Total investment. $33,600.00

Net profit before ink, paper and taxes ------ $30,000.00

Big deal, so you hit a pick 6 for $42,000 and proceeded to lose $12,000 of it :cool:

[kenwoodallpromos]

If I am reading it right, less than 30 betting days; must have been a little selective as to which days to bet. Please expand on how you determine which days you bet- key on big potential exotics? certain days of the week?

[kenwoodallpromos]

All bets must have included at least 1 longshot in the win or place position.
I have been looking at the possiblity of betting exotics with longshot in the win position and favorite to place.

[joeyspicks]

I think I have the same thought as FORMULA: So you hit a pick 6 for $42000

and net profit for the month was $30,000 ? ? ? ? ? ?

Does that mean when you have a month that you do NOT hit a pk-6 (I am assuming you have them ???) you lose on avg $12,000 per month ??

Say you miss three months without that Pick 6 hit....down $36000 for the 3 month time frame and now you have the month in question.....you are "only" down $6000 ?

TWIN.........Iam ONLY ASKING ?? Do you need a big hit like this to stay even ?

[twindouble]

If I am reading it right, less than 30 betting days; must have been a little selective as to which days to bet. Please expand on how you determine which days you bet- key on big potential exotics? certain days of the week?

Come on now you got to kidding, you know as well as do that Mondays are the best days to wager on exotics. :jump:

[twindouble]

formula;

Big deal, so you hit a pick 6 for $42,000 and proceeded to lose $12,000 of it :cool:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/statusicon/user_offline.gif http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/buttons/green/reputation.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=206816#) http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/buttons/green/report.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/report.php?p=206756)
No I didn't "PROCEED" TO LOSE $12,000.00. How did you come with that?

[twindouble]

I think I have the same thought as FORMULA: So you hit a pick 6 for $42000

and net profit for the month was $30,000 ? ? ? ? ? ?

Does that mean when you have a month that you do NOT hit a pk-6 (I am assuming you have them ???) you lose on avg $12,000 per month ??

Say you miss three months without that Pick 6 hit....down $36000 for the 3 month time frame and now you have the month in question.....you are "only" down $6000 ?

TWIN.........Iam ONLY ASKING ?? Do you need a big hit like this to stay even ?

I don't get your question, are you asking me if I don't hit a pick 6 am I a looser? The answer is simply no! That was just a sample MO, you can't extrapulate that into what ever you want to make a point. Take it for what it's worth, my point was you can lose over 70% of the time in any given period and still come out a winner. To me that was clear, sorry you didn't get it.

To answer you question, I've gone 6 MO and longer without hitting a pick 6 and still made money but I've had some nice pick 5's that added to the bankroll, thank GOD. What do want me to say? I don't know what I'm talking about and this is all a figment of my imagination? :bang:

There I go again, getting cranky. Don't take it personal. That's just me.

[joeyspicks]

no not at all. I certainly didnt say I doubted your word. What I DID say was

you won a pk-6 for $42000......correct? but finished the month +30000

somewhere somehow you gave back $12000.

Now thats ok ( I once did that all the time....except not the kind of numbers you are talking about)

My question was (I guess)....do you DEPEND on a big hit to keep you even (or ahead?)

From the numbers you are throwing out it SEEMS to me you are.......thats the only question I had.

[hurrikane]

Curious,
is that money calculated 'after tax'.

I'm not really sure I understand the point of this thread.

I'll reiterate . win % is for the most part irrelavant. As I said on the thread the guy posted the 33%. He's betting too many underlays. That's the only way you win 33% and lose money.

[twindouble]

no not at all. I certainly didnt say I doubted your word. What I DID say was

you won a pk-6 for $42000......correct? but finished the month +30000

somewhere somehow you gave back $12000.

Now thats ok ( I once did that all the time....except not the kind of numbers you are talking about)

My question was (I guess)....do you DEPEND on a big hit to keep you even (or ahead?)

From the numbers you are throwing out it SEEMS to me you are.......thats the only question I had.

Thanks for understanding my pissy mood. I thought it was clear that I won a small % of my bets "through out the MO", that would account for the loses.

I don't "depend" on anything when it comes to wagering, least of all a set a wagering strategy, I'm flexable. When it comes to the pick 6 when I have the time to get into a full card I do, in other words I don't bet it every day, primarly because not ever card is playable including the time restraints. By not playable I mean for example the races are very compitive or they they thow 22 first time starters 2yo's, I would have to go to deep to have a shot and that would be out of my bankroll range. Another reason is I like to wait for carryovers to occure. That in it's self is a plus because, the carryover is a free ride when it comes to take out plus many others get into the act and pool mushrooms. I try to make my plays in the 6 at times when I think I have a reasonable chance to take it down, I have to feel like I have an edge. The only thing I depend on is the DRF, my experience and ability to handicap and weight he potential to make money in what ever pool or pools that meet that criteria. You can be darn sure, I wouldn't put just $2.00 on a 15-1 shot that I really like to win and ignore the other pools with a horse like that. That would be foolish and no they don't "ALL WIN".

I hope this helps you undersand where I'm coming from. Most of all don't think I veiw myself as the king of handicapping world or got rich playing the game. All I do is a good job of keeping my head above water and enjoying it very much. When I put in hard time following the horses and have a good week, MO. or year, then get lucky on top of it what can say.:jump: Beside we all have to live another life outside the horses, don't we? So it's not an easy thing to do.

Good luck,

T.D.

[twindouble]

Curious,
is that money calculated 'after tax'.

I'm not really sure I understand the point of this thread.

I'll reiterate . win % is for the most part irrelavant. As I said on the thread the guy posted the 33%. He's betting too many underlays. That's the only way you win 33% and lose money.

Yes, I did see that and agreed but I should have responded as such. Sorry about that. On the taxes, E-mail me and I'll answer that question, or I'll e-mail you if you want.

[Nickle]

If you can make 15% a year on your money your doing excellent

It bets the market, banks and for the most part real estate

[hurrikane]

twin,

I don't really care about the taxes. I was just wondering was the 45k for the pic 6 what it paid or what you received?

the rest is between you, your concience, and the IRS. :D

[twindouble]

twin,

I don't really care about the taxes. I was just wondering was the 45k for the pic 6 what it paid or what you received?

the rest is between you, your concience, and the IRS. :D


hurrikane; Here in MA. We can't claim loses agins't gambling winnings the tax rate here is 5.5%. Nothing we can do about that, Right? IRS, is no problem unless you make it one. My concience is clear but I doubt most in Washington have one.

Good Luck,

T.D.

[Valuist]

Unless you are making the same types of wagers all the time, it really means nothing. I bet mostly exotics and do better in those wagers than strictly win bets.

[twindouble]

Unless you are making the same types of wagers all the time, it really means nothing. I bet mostly exotics and do better in those wagers than strictly win bets.

I agree, like I said in other posts times have changed and I think every player should give those pools a close look for opertunity to make money. Don't get me wrong, I still have a lot respect for the spot players that bet just win like I have respect for those craftsmen of the past. It wasn't easy for me to adapt and take a serious look at the different pools while I was stubornly hanging onto the idea that picking winners is where it's at years ago. Speaking of spot players that hasn't totaly left me, there is times when I'm just waiting for a horse to be entered in the right spot for good reasons and the horse could very well be a key to the other pools plus a win bet. Further more, the picks are still about picking winners. I know very well what I'm saying isn't new to a good percentage of players but I think most fail to understand how to evaluate or wager on those races and pools to get an edge. I'll say again, your bankroll is a key factor on the latter.

I had someone point out to me last night in the war room that I used 7 horses in the 10 horse field in the tri and super at Mnr. I really don't know what his point was, maybe I wasn't handicapping or I was just buying the race. First off you need 4 of those 7 just to hit the super and I think the prevaling conditions in a 10 horse field warent going deep for 2 or 3 losing positions, ESP at Mnr. Well, I still lost the race but that don't shake me up one bit because I know I don't need to hit everyone to make money. Just think about it, once there's a clear winner in those races you have 3 other races going on in the tri and super. Many times I handicapped and felt one or two others should with in reason have a shot to hit the board but when all chances were lost to win those horses weren't used up racing for 3rd or 4th. That proved out because the next start they either won going away or ran a close second and they were part of my wager, not all the time mind you but a good percentage of the time. So going deep in the exotics isn't a dumb thing to do and it don't reflect on your handicapping ability and like I said that can't be done with a short bankroll.

Good luck,

T.D.

[skate]

ive said before, my win % is about 12%. aqnd when i stay close to that, im doing real good with a positive return.

and i can sure agree with a tri or super bet, having at least 7 out of 10 horses.

i post this for the sake of sanity, yours and mine.

thanks.

[MichaelNunamaker]

Hi twindouble,

You wrote "Here in MA. We can't claim loses agins't gambling winnings the tax rate here is 5.5%. "

That's true in most cases. However, if you are consistently profitable, you can file as a professional gambler and report your loses on schedule C. An article that goes into some depth is here

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=13444

Mike Nunamaker

[twindouble]

Hi twindouble,

You wrote "Here in MA. We can't claim loses agins't gambling winnings the tax rate here is 5.5%. "

That's true in most cases. However, if you are consistently profitable, you can file as a professional gambler and report your loses on schedule C. An article that goes into some depth is here

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=13444

Mike Nunamaker

Yes, thanks for responding; I've been aware of that for years, we used to call it a gambing stamp. The record keeping would have taken the fun out of what was doing, didn't care to make a business out of racing. I've known people that played the horses for a living and did just register for that status. In talking to them, they were a little parnoid about the IRS and other law inforcement snooping into their lives looking for underworld connections. Back then it was very common to use percentage people to cash big scores and most of those guys that did the cashing would launder money threw the race tracks. Well, that's not all that went on and I'm sure it still goes on today.

The IRS isn't a problem for most players, you can take loses up to what your winnings are but here again if your making to much, the flag will go up on loses and you'll more than likely get an audit so you better have things in order. Who want's to deal with that?