loseing his form. mmmaybe

[freeneasy]

A frontrunning horse shows steady 44;3 half mile times at 6 and 61/2 furlgs, and today the jock holds him back to 45:2, 45:3, and gets beat to the point where it looks like the horse has totally gone off form. Theres a good chance I will throw that race out espeacally if he had company up front simply because I believe that horses have temperments or a personality if you will, and the temperment of this horse is to run hard from the start.
And when or while hes being held back to a 45 and change hes still putting out 44 point 3/5s of a second worth of physical exertion because thats the way the horse is trying to run being that the temperment of this horse is to run hard from the start, weather hes being held back or not.

example: you and me are going to run as hard as we can for a half mile, I can run a 44, and theres a wind against me, and as I run the force of the wind holds me back to a 45

see it, without the wind I run a 44, with the wind against me I run a 45. In other words I used up 44 hard run seconds worth of physical energy in a time span of 45 seconds.

In other words it took me 44 seconds to run a race in 45 seconds.

Of coarse some horses do rate well, but I think there might be some hidden knowledge here.

ring ring
Hello this is Mister Ed
Hey Ed this is freeneasy..... Ed I got a question for ya
Yeah what is it
well umm can you run a half in 44 and change?
click................
ah Ed, Ed you still there

[superfecta]

Good point,easy.I have seen that happen,jock tries to hold a horse back,to conserve energy or to put him in good position and in effect wears the horse out doing so.Bad part is measuring how much this takes out of the horse(if any).Almost happened in the Preakness.I was afraid WE was fighting for the lead against Espinoza and wouldn't have enough left at the end.

[freeneasy]

yeah super I believe there are times when a horse has expended 44seconds worth of energy in a clocking of like 45 seconds, so you can say, next time they'll just give him his head and let him run a 44 or whatever.

maybe one way to tell if a horse is expending this type of " nagitive energy" is if a horse runs a 44 half, and will normally close in 26 seconds for a 1;10 flat, and next time runs a half in 45 with exspectations of a quicker closeing time of 25 secs. to get the same 1:10, and the horse closes with the same 26 for a 1:11 flat, you can think that even with a less strenuous pace of 45, the horse has not able to relax but still exerted 44secs. worth of physical energy in a time of 45 secs.

sprint to route same thing, horse goes 45 to the half in a spt., next in a route hes taken back to the half in a late 46 or 47, gets beat a half a football field, hmm could be he ran a 45 in 47 seconds, comes back in a rt and holds on much better could be hes starting to acclimate to his conditioning and maybe you'll see a 5f work in a slowish time, quite possibly more signs of teaching this animal to relax wouldnt be to optimistic of a guess.

WE, Super, I think had a 3f work just before the Preakness, making no bones about where they wanted WE's mind to be.

like I said Supe, theres some hidden value in some of this, and when it jumps off the page at you, well you just may be on the trail of a well ment horse.

[superfecta]

I agree.Thats what puzzled me about WE.Baffert said they wanted to get him to rate a little,but a 3f work is more of a speed workout,to sharpen speed and see how he handles it.A light 4f or easy 5f work usually means the horse is fit and the trainer wants to keep the horse toned.I usually pay more attention to the freq. of works more than the time.The only thing that makes me reconsider a "bad" horse,one that finished OTM last out is if he has had a good work since the last race.Makes me think the bad race was just a workout in public.

[freeneasy]

Baffet may have wanted WE to rate a little bit more for the Preakness, ( with all the trainers runnin off telling everyone that would listen that WE would not get so cozy of a lead in the Preakness as he did in the Derby, and that the cats out of the bag now that we know what to expect, that he wont get so easy of a lead next time and how we all plan to deal with WE's frontrunning tactics in the Preakness, same hype from all the handicapping guru writers) but not to do anything to differently than the Derby, get a good break, take the lead, if you can give him a breath or two give it to him, so on. Iam sure baffet considered what he would do if he had to beat WE with each of the other horses and was convinced of WEs fitness and a 3F work was to try and keep his mind where Baffert wanted WEs temperment to stay "lead mode". or there abouts, hehe

[Observer]

While some riders are well-intentioned on trying to conserve energy by trying to get their horse to settle, some just seem to be too aggressive in their attempts. It's a fine line trying to get a horse to relax and settle, and putting them under a strong, unforgiving hold is certainly not the best approach, and the longer a hold like this is kept, the more damage it can do in the horse's effort to run a good race.

freeneasy, I certainly agree that sometimes it's best to discard these types of efforts.

Something else to consider, how often do we see the best riders in the game put these types of holds on their front-running horses? I don't think I can recall in recent times Bailey riding with his feet in the dashboard.

[so.cal.fan]

This is an interesting subject.
I sometimes wonder if one of the main factors in who wins and loses races is expressed in your comments here?
I can't really express it, it is sort of abstract, but I have always felt that races are controlled by the way they run them more than any other factor.
Does anyone else agree, or can you clarify it better than I did?

[superfecta]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
This is an interesting subject.
I sometimes wonder if one of the main factors in who wins and loses races is expressed in your comments here?
I can't really express it, it is sort of abstract, but I have always felt that races are controlled by the way they run them more than any other factor.
Does anyone else agree, or can you clarify it better than I did? Is it a main factor?Probably not.I think other factors are more important, i.e selcting the right pace line,in a competitive field today,or does the horse show he is in good form overall,etc.
This would fall in a second tier of handicapping,after you get logical contenders,then visualizing the pace(how the race will likely set up),there may be more than one,so you have to adjust to betting different combos for exotics.And sometimes spotting that horse that may not run to his ability due to the jocks influence can save or cost you money depending on your judgement call.
I think pace is a stong factor,but the horse has to have other factors going for him as well.The problem,as always, is quantifying which is more important.It can change race to race.But I think dealing with what you know,don't know and hope what will happen is tough.Numbers can't tell you everything,a mechanical system won't work because horses are not machines.You have to take each race as independent,not to be duplicated again.Even if the same horses ran against each over and over,each race would be different,because the losing trainers,owners and jocks would change tactics to try and improve.Sorry to go on a rant,hope this helped.

[so.cal.fan]

I agree with you, Superfecta, but my question was about the pace and how it changes. I wasn't clear enough, sorry.
I try to determine who will be in front, and who might be able to catch them.
It doesn't always work that way, if the riders change the usual tactics.
Many years ago, I was going to bet $300 to win on a horse that was nearly 10/l odds at Santa Anita. I "chickened" out, because I over handicapped the race, finally decided he was a front runner and there was too much other speed.
A rider name of Don Pierce, decided to take this front running horse I liked way off the pace (last to be exact), I stood on the apron in horror, as my selection (I didn't bet) came up in the stretch to go by all the tiring speed horses and win the race.
OUCH isn't the word for it!:eek: :eek: :eek:

[andicap]

so. cal fan.
That's what happened to EVERYONE in the Derby with War Emblem, me included.
I've been going away from traditional pace handicapping in the past year because of that with the exception of looking for strong early speed horses who could win the race -- especially when they're dropping in class, have other "karma" moves (as Prog. Hand. calls them), and not so great final finishing positions/beaten lengths.
Surprisingly, you can decent odds on top trainers/jockeys in these cases.

Otherwise, I will CMA when there's a ton of speed and a lone closer with some class/late punch at high odds. A $58 horse on Belmont Day 3 years ago that I ignored taught me to respect those longshots.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
I agree with you, Superfecta, but my question was about the pace and how it changes. I wasn't clear enough, sorry.
I try to determine who will be in front, and who might be able to catch them.
It doesn't always work that way, if the riders change the usual tactics.
Many years ago, I was going to bet $300 to win on a horse that was nearly 10/l odds at Santa Anita. I "chickened" out, because I over handicapped the race, finally decided he was a front runner and there was too much other speed.
A rider name of Don Pierce, decided to take this front running horse I liked way off the pace (last to be exact), I stood on the apron in horror, as my selection (I didn't bet) came up in the stretch to go by all the tiring speed horses and win the race.
OUCH isn't the word for it!:eek: :eek: :eek: Ahh,but thats what should keep you in the game SC.
You had the horse,you didn't overhandicap.You just didn't have faith in yourself.Happens to everybody.Thats why you can make up for a lapse in courage,theres always "fresh".Another race will come along.If you can shake off the losses,not let them frustrate you it will make you stronger.But many bettors can't .Everyone can remember the blown calls,the bad beats,hardly anyone relishes the right bets ,the good scores.Must be human nature I guess.:)

[so.cal.fan]

Thanks, superfecta.
You're right, of course.
This happened to me many, many years ago, and the problem was the $300 bet! I should have been making a $30 bet and I'd have placed it.
Even today, (and I am much richer than 30 years ago- although after the market crash in 2000-not much) I am not comfortable with any bet over $200.
We all have an amount that is comfortable to US, a bettor must deal with this, because I have seen it in every single handicapper/bettor I know or ever have known.:)

[superfecta]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Thanks, superfecta.
You're right, of course.
This happened to me many, many years ago, and the problem was the $300 bet! I should have been making a $30 bet and I'd have placed it.
Even today, (and I am much richer than 30 years ago- although after the market crash in 2000-not much) I am not comfortable with any bet over $200.
We all have an amount that is comfortable to US, a bettor must deal with this, because I have seen it in every single handicapper/bettor I know or ever have known.:) I tell you what SC(or anybody else thats interested),heres something that should lift your spirits on a day when the horses aren't running your way.If you are at a OTB or track,take a look at all the people there with you.You should be able to spot the serious players ,those who know what they are doing,and count them on one hand.Most of them are not bragging on the bets they have won,and or able to explain how they come upon their selections in a logical way.The others that are winning are just lucky,so they don't count.Looking at your competition should make you feel better,and give you hope that you can succeed,with hard work and preserverence.

[so.cal.fan]

You bet, Superfecta!
When I was 19 years old, my Dad took my brother and I to Santa Anita. I was fascinated by the races. I remember looking at the bettors, and deciding I could take their money for the most part.
I immediately set out on a course to succeed.
I do not regret my choices!

[Tom]

Originally posted by superfecta
I tell you what SC(or anybody else thats interested),heres something that should lift your spirits on a day when the horses aren't running your way.If you are at a OTB or track,take a look at all the people there with you.You should be able to spot the serious players ,those who know what they are doing,and count them on one hand.Most of them are not bragging on the bets they have won,and or able to explain how they come upon their selections in a logical way.The others that are winning are just lucky,so they don't count.Looking at your competition should make you feel better,and give you hope that you can succeed,with hard work and preserverence.

A friend of mine, a pretty decent player, used to refer to going to the OTB as "turkey farming." "Let's go harvest the crop!" he used to say.

[freeneasy]

Hey guys, dont mean to be so long in responding to your replies but time gets a little crowded here once in a while

anyway so cal fan mentions that races are controlled by the way they run, and super mentions that a drastic change in the way they run can alter a preformance of normal exspectancy and is it or should it be a main handicapping factor when your visualizeing the the pace setup, while observer asks, how often do you see the better jocks put these types of holds on their mounts?

Well to think about it a little more I guess this idea of a horse expending 44 or 45 seconds worthof physical energy in a clocking time of 46 or 47 seconds would better fit a horse going from a sprint to a route rather then a sprint to a longer sprint or a route to a longer route tho the principles can and should still apply.

in my own thorey I think that every horse has their own particular temperment and that is what controlls the way they run, and if they run out of that temperment they are going against and taking away from their own stenght. A horse doesnt know the distance of a race he is to run so he will need a secondary factor, that is a jockey to best measure out the strength and temperment while still fitting the contour of that horse in order to maximize the most complete effort that can be made. AKA better jockys get the better mounts.

I think you see this often enough in yonger horses starting to stretch out into routes that show front and or pressing type speed, and you know theres not going to be those same front running fractions in a route from a sprint. And your probably right observer, that you dont often enough see these types of holds to pull a horse back from a 45 half to a 47 half, to incorporate into your handicapping as a main factor, but its there, and when I see a frontrunning type horse with a 44- 45 half time in a sprint,(and he figures to be on or close to the lead) fall apart after a 46-47 half in a route, Id like to know , and this is where the fine line comes in, Id like to know if this horse exerted and used up 44-45 seconds worth of physical and mental energy within an actual running time of like 46-47 seconds. Could be hes going bad, or just cant route, perhaps the company was to strong and to much, and maybe he can learn to relax and rate and do whats hopefully expected of him within the next couple of routes. AKA good trainers get the good horses.

I like this idea and think there might be some hidden value here so when I see this type of thing I like to take note of it. But I'll tell you this andi, if its one thing I likes, its a horse with the frontrunning speed and the closing speed. oh my